Around The MLB: Free Agent Signings And Trades Discussion Thread

[brett05]

Baez will play much better in 2015 than most people expect. When he came up, people expected him to be Babe Ruth day one. When he struggled, people gave up on him. The Cubs surely haven't, and won't. We'll be happy with Baez.

I don;t recall anyone thinking that on here at least nor in the Chicago Media.

 

[TL1961]

I don;t recall anyone thinking that on here at least nor in the Chicago Media.

I don't mean baseball experts thought Baez would be Babe Ruth. By "people", I was referring to the large number of overreactionary fans. Not all, of course. But there are so many who go so quickly to extremes -

"He'll be great, because he hit HR's in the minors. "
"Trade him, he strikes out too much" (in the 2 month trial in the majors)

Just making a point that people go waaaayyyy overboard in both directions.

Most of us expected the Bears to be better this year than last. But many fans talked Super Bowl, and only a blind man could think that team had a Super Bowl in them.

And while some of us were saying not to dismiss the possibility the Cubs could be a contender as soon as 2015, when all this time things were pointing to 2016 or later, many were complaining the Cubs were losing and doing it all wrong. Then they hire Joe Maddon, and fans are tweeting about a WS in 2015. (And there will be a LOT of pissed off fans in 2015 as the team doesn't meet their ridiculous expectations.)

So, the point is, I was being intentionally facetious with the Babe Ruth comment, making the point that many - not all - fans go overboard, positive and negative.

 

[brett05]

I see.

But let's also be honest here and say it would be a near impossible task for Baez to be worse in 2015 than 2014.

 

[TL1961]

I see.

But let's also be honest here and say it would be a near impossible task for Baez to be worse in 2015 than 2014.

Well, that's a main reason he came up when he did.

 

[brett05]

Well, that's a main reason he came up when he did.

I don;t think I understand. What is one of the main reasons that you speak of?

 

[SilenceS]

I don;t think I understand. What is one of the main reasons that you speak of?

He is saying he came up knowing he would struggle hard. Its why the Cubs brought him up. They wanted to start his learning curve early.

 

[brett05]

He is saying he came up knowing he would struggle hard. Its why the Cubs brought him up. They wanted to start his learning curve early.

The problem is there is no sign that he learned anything. Time will tell though

 

[beckdawg]

I see.

But let's also be honest here and say it would be a near impossible task for Baez to be worse in 2015 than 2014.

Whether or not he can get worse isn't really the issue. It's how much he improves. That's frankly my biggest issue. Even if he cuts his k rate down 10%, improves his batting average 50 points and ups his walk rate say 2% that's still around a .220/.300 hitter which where he sits now would be a major improvement. If he gets all of those improvements you're basically talking about Chris Carter at 2B. Carter hit .227/.308/.491 with 37 HRs and 9.8%/31.8% walk/k rate last season and was worth 1.7 fWAR. There's some more value of that production out of 2B obviously but 2 fWAR is considered an "average" player.

I don't think some realize the math needed for him to be the player people think he eventually will be. If you get 500 ABs in a season and strike out 190+ times and you figure a .300 BABIP(league average) that means you should roughly get 93 hits(.186 BA) out of the remaining 310 ABs. To be a .250 hitter you're talking about finding another 32 hits which really means you want to be about half that in terms of K's. You need roughly 416 non-k ABs to hit .250 or 84 k's. Baez had had a slightly elevated BABIP in the minors(.330ish) but even if we assume that you're talking about need 379 non-k ABs or 121 K's which would be around 21-22% K rate over 575 PAs. Realistically, to be a .250 or better hitter Baez is probably going to have to be at or under a 25% k rate. Additionally, at present time Baez doesn't support the walk rate to make up for the issue getting around BABIP that say Mark Reynolds or Adam Dunn had.

That's my frustration with those who suggest people are overreacting to a 21 year old. It really has nothing to do with him being 21. That math applies to any player. Ultimately, if you want to believe in his potential you're banking on him figuring out how to K less than he has at any level since A+. Anything less than that and I think we're talking about Baez being something quite similar to Chris Carter in his best case scenario.

 

[beckdawg]

Yanks traded for a SS

The Yankees, Diamondbacks and Tigers have completed a three-team trade that will send Didi Gregorius to the Yankees, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). Rosenthal adds that Robbie Ray will indeed go from the Tigers to the Diamondbacks and Shane Greene will be heading to the Tigers. WFAN’s Sweeny Murti first reported the potential framework and noted that Greene would head to Detroit if the deal were to be completed. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic first tweeted that Ray could be headed to Arizona.

Infielder Domingo Leyba will also head to the Diamondbacks in the trade, reports Morosi (on Twitter).

 

[JZsportsfan]

The problem is there is no sign that he learned anything. Time will tell though

Meh I see where you are coming from as he struggled through the end of the season. But it's hard to make those changes in the midst of a season.

Look at how Rizzo and Castro bounced back over the course of last off-season. Not saying Baez will be an All-Star this season or anything, but I can see him making significant progress by focusing on correcting his weaknesses.

 

[brett05]

Meh I see where you are coming from as he struggled through the end of the season. But it's hard to make those changes in the midst of a season.

Look at how Rizzo and Castro bounced back over the course of last off-season. Not saying Baez will be an All-Star this season or anything, but I can see him making significant progress by focusing on correcting his weaknesses.

Good players can make adjustments. I am by no means saying Baex can;t me a good player, but adjustments happen and he didn't. We'll see if Castro continues in 2015. Rizzo is a star though.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Castro is a star, brett05. A 3 time all...star.

 

[TL1961]

The problem is there is no sign that he learned anything. Time will tell though

Bill James remains confident. LOL

And our new hitting coach is working with Javy in the DR this winter. Hopefully 24/7. (Actually, just say "Stop swinging so damn hard!". It's not the DaVinci code here.)

 

[TC in Mississippi]

One of the reasons I didn't panic over Baez was the well publicized plan to not give him any instruction last year and see how he adjusted. The answer was not well but they didn't change the plan. Instead they did what they were always going to do provide the kid with tons of tape, I'm sure a lot of data and then start working with him to get him ready for spring. The approach seems reasonable, well thought out and measurable. Of course if he doesn't improve it will prove unsuccessful but I liek plans and I like that this FO sticks to them more often than not when it comes to player development. I alos think they learned something from their handling of Castro.

 

[CSF77]

One of the reasons I didn't panic over Baez was the well publicized plan to not give him any instruction last year and see how he adjusted. The answer was not well but they didn't change the plan. Instead they did what they were always going to do provide the kid with tons of tape, I'm sure a lot of data and then start working with him to get him ready for spring. The approach seems reasonable, well thought out and measurable. Of course if he doesn't improve it will prove unsuccessful but I liek plans and I like that this FO sticks to them more often than not when it comes to player development. I alos think they learned something from their handling of Castro.

New hitting coach said the is going to work with his 2 strike approach. Something to do with BABIP was around .296 league avg but was just a shade lower with 2 strikes. But the league BA with 2 strikes was like ,188. So making contact with 2 strikes should be the goal as you have a .290 chance of a hit vs the .188 going on by not shortening his stroke.

He has some work to do.

 

[JosMin]

Per Robert Murray, Francisco Lirano back to the Pirates on a 3 year deal worth $39 million. Great value for the Bucs.

 

[SilenceS]

Per Robert Murray, Francisco Lirano back to the Pirates on a 3 year deal worth $39 million. Great value for the Bucs.

I have been wanting him for years, but Theo seems to thinks different.

 

[JosMin]

I have been wanting him for years, but Theo seems to thinks different.

I mean, when you consider the Pirates snagged him for $13MM AAV before the big dog pitchers found homes, it's a borderline heist. They would've been looking at much bigger number and maybe even a fourth year after the market starts to dry up. Very savvy move on their part to land him before the market became more aggressive.

 

[brett05]

Per Robert Murray, Francisco Lirano back to the Pirates on a 3 year deal worth $39 million. Great value for the Bucs.

Liriano for $39 or Hammel for $28 if he goes all three? No brainer for me.

 

[beckdawg]

Liriano for $39 or Hammel for $28 if he goes all three? No brainer for me.

Liriano would have costed a pick though for any team other than the Pirates.