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[2323]

Plus they didn't do a thing for their defense. Brad Stuart is more of subtraction by addition. Varlamov can't save them every time, just ask the Minnesota Wild.

The cheap shot from Matt Cooke on Barrie changed the complexion if the whole series. Without Barrie they didn't have the depth on defense to clear the puck. With Barrie, they were 2-0 against the Wild. Without Barrie, they were 1-4.

Another thing, Duchene was injured during the series. Without him, they were a one line team. And as much as Varlamov did really well in the regular season, it was MacKinnon who, when he played well, it translated into wins. MacKinnon had three 3 point games and the Avs won all if them. The main thing that allowed him to be such a catalyst was his speed. It was an absolute game changer when he was able to find open ice. A lot of Stastny's points were a result if this.

OReilly played valiantly and put up some points but beyond him and the MacKinnon line, there was a huge drop off. The Avs had extremely high end talent at forward on the top 2 lines but after that the chasm is huge...bigger than most teams. Adding Briere and Iginla should help in this regard. They provide more flexibility. They can put ROR or MacKinnon at center and mix and match.

But yeah, not having Barrie killed the defense. He's still on the roster.

 

[2323]

BTW, Stastny was overpaid in Colorado and even moreso now. This could actually be good to have St Louis' payroll tied up with him.

 

[DMelt36]

The cheap shot from Matt Cooke on Barrie changed the complexion if the whole series. Without Barrie they didn't have the depth on defense to clear the puck. With Barrie, they were 2-0 against the Wild. Without Barrie, they were 1-4.

Another thing, Duchene was injured during the series. Without him, they were a one line team. And as much as Varlamov did really well in the regular season, it was MacKinnon who, when he played well, it translated into wins. MacKinnon had three 3 point games and the Avs won all if them. The main thing that allowed him to be such a catalyst was his speed. It was an absolute game changer when he was able to find open ice. A lot of Stastny's points were a result if this.

OReilly played valiantly and put up some points but beyond him and the MacKinnon line, there was a huge drop off. The Avs had extremely high end talent at forward on the top 2 lines but after that the chasm is huge...bigger than most teams. Adding Briere and Iginla should help in this regard. They provide more flexibility. They can put ROR or MacKinnon at center and mix and match.

But yeah, not having Barrie killed the defense. He's still on the roster.

Excellent stuff. Thanks.

A lot of the knocks I see against Colorado come from their possession metrics. They were rated 27th out of the 30 NHL teams in FF% (Fenwick-for %). Twelve of the top 13 teams in that category made the playoffs, with Kings and Hawks at 1 and 2. There's a belief that the Avalanche severely over-achieved last season based on the possession metrics and they're due for a significant regression to the mean this season.

BTW, Stastny was overpaid in Colorado and even moreso now. This could actually be good to have St Louis' payroll tied up with him.

Blues don't appear to be in danger of losing any significant players on their current roster for the next 3 years, judging from CapGeek.

Still think they're a few pieces away from the LA/CHI/ANA tier in the West, though. And not sold on Elliot in net for them.

 

[2323]

Excellent stuff. Thanks.

A lot of the knocks I see against Colorado come from their possession metrics. They were rated 27th out of the 30 NHL teams in FF% (Fenwick-for %). Twelve of the top 13 teams in that category made the playoffs, with Kings and Hawks at 1 and 2. There's a belief that the Avalanche severely over-achieved last season based on the possession metrics and they're due for a significant regression to the mean this season.



Blues don't appear to be in danger of losing any significant players on their current roster for the next 3 years, judging from CapGeek.

Still think they're a few pieces away from the LA/CHI/ANA tier in the West, though. And not sold on Elliot in net for them.

Yeah, the Avs did over achieve. You can reference the fenwick and other benchmarking tools if you want but the Avs are one of the few teams in the NHL who run man to man defense. For this reason, they really need defensemen who can skate. As I said earlier, they really had a dearth of defensemen. And in most cases, it wasn't just that they were a bad fit for the system because they were a bad fit for any system. It was a bunch of misfits and AHLers. But the Avs had a few forwards who helped out a lot on defense to compensate for this shortcoming during the regular season. Mainly ROR, Stastny, and Skog.

But honestly, you don't need any metric to tell you how bad the Avs defense was. It's really true that it's a skating league now. Having defensemen who can skate really helps a lot. It both buys you time and space to make better, less harried decisions and other times it allows you to simply move the puck up the ice. This was really exposed with the vast majority of Avs defensemen after Barrie went out. Once Barrie went down, these guys who couldn't skate would constantly pass the puck along the boards. Over the seven games a team figures this out at some point and there's almost someone there to receive the puck. For this reason, the Avs were constantly playing in their own zone.

This skating thing is why I'm always talking up Leddy. I wouldn't mind having him on the Avs at all.

But I noticed someone also say they haven't addressed the defense. Actually it's possible that Stuart will help a lot when he's compared to what the Avs last year. I'm not entirely sure what kind of shape Stuart is in though either. He might be ok from what I've read. At least he's better than an AHLer.

But the Avs aren't really in a position to make a splashy move. Their best prospects in their system are defensemen. They've often said they want to build through the draft. Also, they have a cost structure they're trying to be disciplined with. You have to over pay for top pairing defensemen. And so this is why the Avs have addressed the defense as they have. I'm a little puzzled about why they didn't go after Ehrhoff but they didn't.

I think they see their financial flexibility is an asset right now...almost as if it was another player.

And no, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they took a step back.

 

[Diehardfan]

What the Avs are doing makes some sense now. I mentioned earlier that I thought they closed the window for winning a bit by making these moves but with the exception of Ingila, these moves appear to be buying them some time for their kids to develop as both Briere and Stuart are on the last year of their deals. Iggy is another story. A 3 year deal for a 37 year old guy? I don't care what kind of shape he's in, that contract is gonna hurt them.

Good explanation, though.

 

[DMelt36]

Seems like defensemen who can skate are quickly becoming the hottest commodity in the NHL. Think of the guys who've recently won a Norris: Subban, Karlsson, Keith (Chara being the obvious exception). All guys who can skate.

Not only does it help when these guys decide to jump in the play from the point, but it's a HUGE asset to have on defense when a player can simply skate the puck out of trouble as opposed to making a risky pass. Keith, in particular, has shown some nifty skatework to navigate himself out of an opposing forecheck.

It's also a great skill to have for the power play. Remember when Brian Campbell used to skate the puck out of his end, chip it in at the blue line, and then retrieve it himself? That's the kind of skating ability I'd like to see Leddy reach one day. You don't have to be a 6-5, 230 pounder to be a successful NHL defenseman. Small and quick with proper stick placement is just as effective.

 

[DMelt36]

What the Avs are doing makes some sense now. I mentioned earlier that I thought they closed the window for winning a bit by making these moves but with the exception of Ingila, these moves appear to be buying them some time for their kids to develop as both Briere and Stuart are on the last year of their deals. Iggy is another story. A 3 year deal for a 37 year old guy? I don't care what kind of shape he's in, that contract is gonna hurt them.

Good explanation, though.

Briere and Stuart on one-year deals makes a bit more sense. But 3 years for Iggy is boggling.

 

[2323]

Briere and Stuart on one-year deals makes a bit more sense. But 3 years for Iggy is boggling.

Iginla isn't mind boggling at all. I say thus for a variety of reasons. It allows MacKinnon and/or O'Reilly to play their natural position of center. Also, when you look at their forward group last year, they only had 2 or 3 that were right handed, namely MacKinnon and Parenteau, which is to say MacKinnon, since PAP was destined to get traded. For much of the season Roy has made it a mantra that the Avs need to get bigger and have more RH balance in their forward corps. Their first draft pick was made with this in mind with Bleackley.

Since the Avs have been drafting with high picks and have made great choices with them, they've had several guys bypass another year in juniors and the AHL to play with the Avs immediately, they've had no one noteworthy populating their prospect pool. MacKinnon, Skog, Duchene, and OReilly have all gone to the NHL in short order, so none of these guys really ever spent time as a prospect since they were impact NHL players right away. Defensemen take longer to develop and the Avs top draft picks from the past few years are what's in the pipeline and also their best prospects. I'm talking about Duncan Siemens, Stefan Elliott, and Chris Bigras. Tyson Barrie finally turned the corner last year. He was in the NHL early, wasn't ready so went back to Lake Erie, and then returned. After he returned, he was a huge asset. He's an excellent skater and has a big, timely shot. I think he had a late game winner against the Blackhawks.

One of the big events in recent memory, regarding talent acquisition, was the S'kirk/Stewart for Johnson trade. For a majority of time since the trade, it was seen as lopsided in the Blues favor. But Johnson has finally come into his own. While he's not an elite top pairing defenseman, he's probably top 15 or 20. Avs fans have been so focused on that trade for so long that many Avs fans want to believe EJ is "the guy". I mention that in relation to Tyson Barrie because, if I'm honest, I'm not so sure Barrie isn't the better player in the future even though he lacks the physicality element EJ has. In the playoffs, the speed of the game changes. Ironically, MacKinnon and Barrie were the least overwhelmed by the speed of the game (ironic because they're both rookies--Razor was 18). Johnson seemed more overwhelmed by the speed of the game than Barrie. So I can see Barrie supplanting EJ at some point if people are being honest.

So what does this have to do with the Avs signings? Check out their salary structure keeping in mind the timeline of the players coming through the pipeline: http://www.capgeek.com/avalanche/

Their core players are Skog, Duchene, Razor, and possibly O'Reilly (depending on what's in his heart). Barrie might be in there. Also maybe EJ. Iginlas contract kind of nicely dovetails with the lower drafted forwards progressing and also players in the timeline. MacKinnon and Johnson come up before Iginlas contract expires. Then after that, Duchene and Skog come up again.

Iginla makes a lot of sense when you look at progressions and timelines. Progressions and timelines are also why Stastny wasn't offered what St Louis was paying.

 

[2323]

Seems like defensemen who can skate are quickly becoming the hottest commodity in the NHL. Think of the guys who've recently won a Norris: Subban, Karlsson, Keith (Chara being the obvious exception). All guys who can skate.

Not only does it help when these guys decide to jump in the play from the point, but it's a HUGE asset to have on defense when a player can simply skate the puck out of trouble as opposed to making a risky pass. Keith, in particular, has shown some nifty skatework to navigate himself out of an opposing forecheck.

It's also a great skill to have for the power play. Remember when Brian Campbell used to skate the puck out of his end, chip it in at the blue line, and then retrieve it himself? That's the kind of skating ability I'd like to see Leddy reach one day. You don't have to be a 6-5, 230 pounder to be a successful NHL defenseman. Small and quick with proper stick placement is just as effective.

Keith is a sublime skater. His ability to cut edges in his end is incredible. Watching Keith skate in the defensive end is like watching a speed boat execute turns against battleships. Nevermind offense (although that is what wins Norris trophies), Keith is an exquisite skater with elite defenseman instincts. Many NHL fans will tell you that Doughty, Suter, or Weber are better. Usually it will be grounded in the idea that they're more physical but skate well enough. I'd go the other way. I'd say the premium should be on skating but while being physical enough.

So yeah, I totally agree with all the sentiment in this post. I think the league is at a place where skating is at a premium and physicality is a nice add on. Honestly, where I can see this going is having 4 guys who can skate but also having 2 bangers in case a team puts a massive, positional forward line out there. I can see the league becoming less rigid about complementary pairings in that you have one PMD and one stay at home banger. They ability to create time and space and or also skate the puck out of your own end us just too valuable. I think where the league is going is having 4 PMDs that are often on the same line but with each learning stay at home responsibilities.

I think the Avs need to learn this before the rest of the NHL but I think the league as a whole is going in this direction. With that in mind, at least regarding the Blackhawks, I think they should resist the urge to overreact to what happened with LA. The Blackhawks A game over the last 5 years has been bigger than LAs A game. You could add the Hawks two championship runs together and they don't have nearly as many lucky breaks as the Kings had in the 2014 playoffs. In fact, I'd even say almost every goal LA scored in game 7 required a lucky bounce. Then in the SC finals, the interference call completely changed the complexion of the series. The Blackhawks didn't get this kind of help against a superior Bruins team in 2013. It's not like Chicago hasn't had lucky bounces but they didn't get it whenever they needed it like LA.

If the Blackhawks aren't still the envy of the league, they should be. I'm an Avs fan living in Chicago. I see more Blackhawks games than Avs games. You guys don't realize how good life is for you right now. I laugh when I see kvetching about things that you should be valuing, As awesome as the Hawks forwards are, I'll take the Avs forwards but where the wealth of riches is, is what Hawks fans seem to complain about the most and that's your defensive corp.

People sometimes compare the Hawks and Avs. But the glaring difference is that you already had Keith and Seabrook when Kane and Toews arrived. The Avs have their forwards but have to now wait on their defensemen.

 

[DewsSox79]

Buffalo is going to be good in 3-4 years. looking at their draft and having the islanders pick next year as well...they will be a team on the rise in the east


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[2323]

Buffalo fans are hoping to achieve maximum orgasm at the draft next year. I don't even think they care if they lose every game if it means getting Connor McDavid. And then if NYI is bad enough maybe they can also get Eichel or Hanifin.

 

[Capt. Serious]

Cory Schneider signs 7 yr extension. (6 mil per yr)

 

[ClydeLee]

Buffalo is going to be good in 3-4 years. looking at their draft and having the islanders pick next year as well...they will be a team on the rise in the east


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I'll give it 9 years, then Buffalo will be good.

Dan Heatly signed with the Ducks. Their forward core is looking mighty.

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[DMelt36]

I'll give it 9 years, then Buffalo will be good.

Dan Heatly signed with the Ducks. Their forward core is looking mighty.

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Yeah, I'm gonna need to see Buffalo do something with those picks before I believe them. Simply having high draft picks does not make you into a good team. Just ask Edmonton.

 

[HawkWriter]

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=456869

Blues re-sign Ott after losing Sobotka to the KHL.

 

[DMelt36]

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=456869

Blues re-sign Ott after losing Sobotka to the KHL.

Subtraction by addition, and losing Sobotka is a huge plus for the rest of the West.

 

[ClydeLee]

Subtraction by addition, and losing Sobotka is a huge plus for the rest of the West.

But if only Tarasenko would leave now.

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[DMelt36]

But if only Tarasenko would leave now.

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We can only hope.

 

[Capt. Serious]

Capitals allow a goal to John Scott..:lmao:

 

[ClydeLee]

Capitals allow a goal to John Scott..:lmao:

And the assist came off the Scott of Adam Burish... Burish and Scott both playing in the same game. People can live in their hyper idealized world all they want and bash Q as if he isn't a great coach, he's never tottered to that level of skill-less players on a line or single lineup. I'd take a Dman like Brookbank or even Hendry on wing over either of this in this season.

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