Big Picture Defensive Discussion

[rawdawg]

Realistically I don't see Hicks, Goldman, or Quinn still on the team to start the '23-24 season. We'll see what happens this year, but I'm not even certain 2 of those 3 will still be in the NFL for that season. Unless Jackson returns to form, he may be out too. Bears cap situation is complicated - Pace had an unfortunate habit of backloading gauranteed money on his large contracts to lower cap hits the year of signing. The covid "rogue wave" cap drop has punished the Bears a bit for that practice. It may be in their best interest to just bite the bullet before the '22-23 season and cut a lot of the dead weight. Theres likely to be a large pop in cap after '21-22 so that gives you some room to pay whatever excess dead money that comes from the cuts.

Going forward I think Pace needs to apply his strategy at addressing S the last few seasons to the entire defense. He pays a (alleged) star at the position big money, but then kind of barrel scrapes to find the best "just some guy" he can to put next to his star. He needs to apply that to all levels of the defense. This team can't afford to have 2 OLBS with 8 figure cap hits, they can't afford to have a $10M NT next to a $12M DE in HIcks. They can't afford to pay a Trevathan big money to ultimately be "the other ILB next to Roquan Smith". He's going to have to start filling a lot of these positions with cheaper contract guys - so look for reclamation projects that out play their "prove it" contract or you hit on rookies who play above their rookie contract. Hell he should have already been doing that - Trevathan was a luxury they couldnt afford when they resigned him over KPL and they doubly cant afford his contract now.

The highest $ positions on defense are CBs and EDGE - Bears have a lot of promising youth at DB but for EDGE you just have Gipson for youth. Hope Gipson takes a massive step forward this year because so far he looks like he may be "just some guy" - which isn't the worst thing for the player but the Bears desparately need youth at that position that shows the potential to replace what Quinn was supposed to be here. Pace does have a really decent string of reclamation successes with both the SS position and moreso the DL - Nick Williams, Mario Edwards, Brent Urban, etc. i'm pretty confident in his ability to find cheap decent guys to replace Hicks/Goldman/maybe Nichols depending on cost to resign. Its really hard to replace the production of a prime goldman and hicks with anyone, let alone from the discount rack, but the Bears are in a cap position where they have to be happy to get 75% of the player for 25% of the cost.

Pace is not unique in the way contracts are structured. Backloading contracts in itself isn't a bad practice, because typically the cap goes up each year as revenues continue to set new records. The pandemic screwed a bunch of teams, and the Bears aren't near the worst off.

But the 2nd paragraph is what I've said for years. Pace has done a pretty decent job of balancing it out too. He paid Jackson, didn't pay Amos and went cheap. Had Trevathan and then tackled ILB with cheap players (Smith, Kwit). If he cuts Trevathan after this season (June 1 cut) then he'll have played it perfectly to get rid of a big contract when Smith becomes expensive. He did have Amukamara and Fuller getting paid double digit mils at the same time, but got out of the Prince deal and went cheap with Johnson. They brought along Nichols, RRH and Goldman while Hicks was getting paid big. Now Hicks should be gone and a hopefully motivated Goldman will be the big contract for a couple years until Nichols' deal gets expensive in the 2nd or 3rd year (assuming he's re-signed).

The big screw up is that Quinn contract. Granted, if he didn't pay Quinn, Floyd would have taken that big money in 2020. And part of the reason Pace felt he had to sign a player like Quinn is because of the lost picks from trading for Mack. The Bears couldn't pair Mack with an early round pick because they didn't have quality high picks and they couldn't pull off say, an Ngakoue trade because of quantity of picks. But still, no excuse to sign Quinn for more than 1 year deal. If Vildor is the real deal, I'd love for the Bears to grab a Day 2 pass rusher to develop across from, and potentially as a successor to Mack.

 

[kg1187]

Factoring paying guys like Robinson, Nichols and possibly Daniels its still tough seeing the Bears being big players in next years free agency.

Trade Foles this year and let Hicks and Quinn go next year and the Bears would have 53 million leftover and that's before paying Robinson, Nichols and Daniels.

This is why I kinda wish the Bears would cut Graham and give Robinson an even more front loaded deal for this season so they can save money on future years. Make Robinson the highest paid WR in the NFL this season and then only pay him like 13 million a season for the rest of his deal.

 

[RiDLer80]

This has been obvious for two years now (needing to get younger). Trevathan should've been gone. Hopefully Hicks' replacement is already on the roster. We need a young pass rusher too.

 

[BearbaFett]

would be ideal if vildor/shelley/graham grab the CB spots up for grabs and gipson/snowden earn a place in the OLB rotation.

i think hicks and trevathan are gone for sure after this season and it would be great if we had some clarity on what's gonna happen with goldman.

 

[SlickWilly]

What do they miss with Mack and Quinn? They barely make an impact now....Mack dos how up from time to time, but Quinn has been trash the entire time...and he's already hurt this year.

If you think Mack barely makes an impact you are beyond fucking stupid.

 

[WindyCity]

Factoring paying guys like Robinson, Nichols and possibly Daniels its still tough seeing the Bears being big players in next years free agency.

Trade Foles this year and let Hicks and Quinn go next year and the Bears would have 53 million leftover and that's before paying Robinson, Nichols and Daniels.

This is why I kinda wish the Bears would cut Graham and give Robinson an even more front loaded deal for this season so they can save money on future years. Make Robinson the highest paid WR in the NFL this season and then only pay him like 13 million a season for the rest of his deal.

This is all accurate.

 

[Aquineas]

Sports Illustrated article on Bears Defense

When Sean Desai took over as coordinator from Chuck Pagano, he inherited a struggling Bears defense.

At least in relative terms, they were struggling. The Bears still ranked among the top half of the league, 11th overall, but there have been real problems develop over the course of the two seasons Pagano presided over the defense.

This wasn't all necessarily the way Pagano called defenses or the way the coaching staff handled players. Some of this had to do with personnel, as well...

The Major Obstacles to an Improved Bears Defense

 

[TL1961]

It's hard to believe how clueless people are about Mack's value and impact.

 

[dabears70]

Should Chicago Bears extend Bilal Nichols

Should Chicago Bears extend Bilal Nichols in 2021. The drafting of Bilal Nichols in the fifth round has turned into a smashing success

email.fansided.com

 

[dabears70]

Chicago Bears: Underrated Roquan Smith finally recognized as top young linebacker

Chicago Bears linebacker Roquan Smith finally got the shine he deserved by making NFL.com's all-under-25 roster after an offseason of disrespect.

email.fansided.com

 

[WindyCity]

The Bears should 100% extend Nichols and Roquan as soon as possible.

Nichols has taken over as the most important DLmen and Roquan is a stud.

 

[Nelly]

Should Chicago Bears extend Bilal Nichols

Should Chicago Bears extend Bilal Nichols in 2021. The drafting of Bilal Nichols in the fifth round has turned into a smashing success

email.fansided.com

My initial reaction is "yes" but how much would he cost? How many guys can you pay big money on each level of the defense without squeezing yourself too badly?

We already have Mack and Goldman making big money beyond this year (presuming Quinn is cut and Hicks is let go). Can they afford to give Nichols a big deal, and is he worth it? You'll have Roquan who's more of a slam dunk extension than Nichols, then you've got Eddie Jackson in the secondary making big money. You'll probably want to allocate one more bigger deal to the secondary as well in the event that Johnson turns out to be a game changer or at least stay flexible in being able to spend some money there to fill a position if Johnson doesn't work out all that well.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

The Bears should 100% extend Nichols and Roquan as soon as possible.

Nichols has taken over as the most important DLmen and Roquan is a stud.

Nichols is the most important dlmen because he is the only that is part of future plans?

 

[rawdawg]

Should Chicago Bears extend Bilal Nichols

Should Chicago Bears extend Bilal Nichols in 2021. The drafting of Bilal Nichols in the fifth round has turned into a smashing success

email.fansided.com

The Bears should definitely try to get Nichols done before he hits the market after 2021. But I must admit, Nichols value is kind of all over the place. The article suggests 10-13Mil per year average, which seems steep to me, but maybe not.

The only DTs/3-4DEs to get over 10M in the last 2 years are Dalvin Tomlinson and DJ Reader. Tomlinson only got a 2-year deal but it was basically all guaranteed. Reader got 4 years, and looks like an overpay for a true NT. Nichols is not a true NT, even though that's where he played a bunch last year. He's also a better pass rusher than both. Nichols definitely should get more than RRH though, who got 7.8 AAV. So, I'm thinking Tomlinson's AAV (10.5M) and guarantees (20.8M) but on a 4-year deal like Reader. So, something like 4 years, 42Mil that has an out after 2 years.

 

[dabears70]

The Bears should definitely try to get Nichols done before he hits the market after 2021. But I must admit, Nichols value is kind of all over the place. The article suggests 10-13Mil per year average, which seems steep to me, but maybe not.

The only DTs/3-4DEs to get over 10M in the last 2 years are Dalvin Tomlinson and DJ Reader. Tomlinson only got a 2-year deal but it was basically all guaranteed. Reader got 4 years, and looks like an overpay for a true NT. Nichols is not a true NT, even though that's where he played a bunch last year. He's also a better pass rusher than both. Nichols definitely should get more than RRH though, who got 7.8 AAV. So, I'm thinking Tomlinson's AAV (10.5M) and guarantees (20.8M) but on a 4-year deal like Reader. So, something like 4 years, 42Mil that has an out after 2 years.

Yeah but Nichols was only playing NT cause he was our best choice to fill in for Goldman but i think with Goldman or another true NT that Nichols would be looked at as the replacement for A.Hicks.

 

[rawdawg]

Yeah but Nichols was only playing NT cause he was our best choice to fill in for Goldman but i think with Goldman or another true NT that Nichols would be looked at as the replacement for A.Hicks.

Yeah, I wasn't knocking him for playing NT. He's definitely the reason why you don't even fret letting Hicks walk after this season, and potentially trade him if you get a decent deal and save a ton of money. If anything, Nichols showed how valuable he is at multiple positions. He's not an elite player on the DL, but considering 2019 was almost a lost season for him, he played out of position a lot in 2020, and he's still just 24 him putting up 5 sacks and 15 QB hits last year bodes well for his future.

 

[remydat]

Mack, Johnson, Smith, Jackson, Edwards, Nichols. That is the core on D while Fields is on his rookie deal. Bears need to keep those guys and just get competent players at the other spots. If those guys play up to their potential, Bears can remain a top 15 D throughout Fields fun. The biggest thing beyond drafting and making the right decisions with mid-tier FAs is the DC. If Desai is more Fangio than Pagano then the D will be fine.

 

[remydat]

The Bears should 100% extend Nichols and Roquan as soon as possible.

Nichols has taken over as the most important DLmen and Roquan is a stud.

I actually think Edwards is potentially more important. He graded out as a top 10 inside lineman last year (7th). If he can maintain that while increasing his snaps then the Bears will be pretty set between him and Nichols.

 

[Montucky]

Mack, Johnson, Smith, Jackson, Edwards, Nichols. That is the core on D while Fields is on his rookie deal. Bears need to keep those guys and just get competent players at the other spots. If those guys play up to their potential, Bears can remain a top 15 D throughout Fields fun. The biggest thing beyond drafting and making the right decisions with mid-tier FAs is the DC. If Desai is more Fangio than Pagano then the D will be fine.

You're going to get less and less from Khalil Mack and probably Eddie Jackson as the years roll on. If Eddie Jackson gets any worse he will be an on-field liability, and not just an average-ish player underperforming on a big contract.

 

[remydat]

You're going to get less and less from Khalil Mack and probably Eddie Jackson as the years roll on. If Eddie Jackson gets any worse he will be an on-field liability, and not just an average-ish player underperforming on a big contract.

Well considering Mack was the No 1 Edge last year then yes there is only one place to go and that is down. However, I think he his production will increase under Desai. Pagano simply allowed too many short passes that prevented the rush from getting home.

I would put money on Jackson improving over last year. I think he let the refs get in his head a bit and is too emotional. Not sure he ever gets back to 2018 Jackson but think he will get back to being a good S if not an elite one.