Caleb Williams Projections

[Bust]

62% completion
3,800 yards
300 rush yards
16 TDs passing
5 TDs rushing
10 INTs
10 FUM

What do you guys think?

reported

 

[Nelly]

I don't even expect 4k yards and a 90 passer rating for a rookie. 3,500 would be excellent and a passer rating of 85+.

Stroud did it last year in 15 games. Even put up a passer rating of over 100 thanks to a stellar completion percentage, yards per attempt and only 5 picks. Luck threw for 4,300 yards and 23 TDs but his picks were at 18 and his completion percentage was terrible so his passer rating was in in the 70's. Those are the best examples of high QB picks who's stepped into good situations and Williams' is probably better than both of theirs; at least comparable. Considering he's a guy with better arm talent than either of those guys were and would have been the slam dunk first overall pick over Stroud the year prior, it's perfectly reasonable to expect big things in year 1.

 

[legendxofxlink]

4000 pyds
250 ryds
30 tds total
12ints
2 sideline cries
14 post play making sassy moves

 

[DaBears3434]

Trevor Lawrence had 12 TDs in 17 games his rookie year.
Most rookie QBs don't come into the league and light it up.

But most rookie QBs, especially ones drafted #1 overall, don’t walk into a situation as good as Caleb is walking into.

 

[SlickWilly]

Trevor Lawrence had 12 TDs in 17 games his rookie year.
Most rookie QBs don't come into the league and light it up.

And pretty much every single rookie QB drafted doesn't have weapons like this.

 

[Black Rainbow]

Stroud did it last year in 15 games. Even put up a passer rating of over 100 thanks to a stellar completion percentage, yards per attempt and only 5 picks. Luck threw for 4,300 yards and 23 TDs but his picks were at 18 and his completion percentage was terrible so his passer rating was in in the 70's. Those are the best examples of high QB picks who's stepped into good situations and Williams' is probably better than both of theirs; at least comparable. Considering he's a guy with better arm talent than either of those guys were and would have been the slam dunk first overall pick over Stroud the year prior, it's perfectly reasonable to expect big things in year 1.

So your expectation is for CW to have a historic rookie year?

 

[mbison]

62% completion
3,800 yards
300 rush yards
16 TDs passing
5 TDs rushing
10 INTs
10 FUM

What do you guys think?

You must be a Fields supporter with those low TD expectations

Yards 4,100
Passing TDs 26
Int 13
Rushing yards 300
Rushing TDs 3

 

[ViggyStargdust]

62% completion
3,800 yards
300 rush yards
16 TDs passing
5 TDs rushing
10 INTs
10 FUM

What do you guys think?

You guys need to quit accepting mediocrity.

Cam Newton: 16 games, 4,051 yards, 21 TDs, 17 INTs (extrapolates to 4,304 yards, 22 TDs, 18 INTs in 17 game season)
Andrew Luck: 16 games, 4,374 yards, 23 TDs, 18 INTs (extrapolates to 4,647 yards, 24 TDs, 19 INTs in 17 game season)
Jameis Winston: 16 games, 4,042 yards, 22 TDs, 15 INTs (extrapolates to 4,294 yards, 23 TDs, 16 INTs in 17 game season)
Jared Goff: 7 games, 1,089 yards, 5 TDs, 7 INTs (extrapolates to 2,644 yards, 12 TDs, 17 INTs in 17 game season)
Baker Mayfield: 14 games, 3,725 yards, 27 TDs, 14 INTs (extrapolates to 4,523 yards, 32 TDs, 17 INTs in 17 game season)
Kyler Murray: 16 games, 3,722 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs (extrapolates to 3,954 yards, 21 TDs, 13 INTs in 17 game season)
Joe Burrow: 10 games, 2,688 yards, 13 TDs, 5 INTs (extrapolates to 4,569 yards, 22 TDs, 8 INTs in 17 game season)
Trevor Lawrence: 17 games, 3,641 yards, 12 TDs, 17 INTs
Bryce Young: 16 games, 2,877 yards, 11 TDs, 10 INTs (extrapolates to 3,056 yards, 12 TDs, 11 INTs in 17 game season)

Not to mention Justin Herbert: 15 games, 4,336 yards, 31 TDs, 10 INTs.

Anything less than 4,000 yards and 20-25 TDs is frankly unacceptable with this roster. Quit being fine with shitty QB play. The average number 1 overall QB going back to Cam Newton is throwing for 3,940 yards and 20 TDs.

Expecting anything less from a dude with this pedigree - who people are claiming is the best prospect since Luck or even Peyton Manning - who is throwing to D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett and DeAndre Swift ought to be breaking Bears single season passing records from day 1.

It isn't a high bar.

 

[DefNextYear]

I’ll go higher than I did in the previous prediction thread.

Yards: 4000
Passing TD: 22
Int: 13
Rushing yards: 200

 

[ViggyStargdust]

So your expectation is for CW to have a historic rookie year?

Doesn't need to be a historic year. The typical #1 overall pick QB since Cam - over a 17 game season - is throwing for 4,000 yards and 20 TDs on average. With this roster, he ought to be able to meet that average. If he doesn't it would be a disappointment.

 

[Hawkeye OG]

Less concerned about stats and more interested in seeing growth from week to week. Hell have some good games and some stinkers. Highly unlikely he comes in and has an MVP season as some have suggested.

Would be great to see some of the “it” factor that everyone talks about franchise QBs having. Gotta say tho, it’s not that common for a highly touted prospect to be walking into a situation as good as this. He should have all the support he needs to be successful pending the OL holds up

 

[gallagher]

Ah I am not for putting expectations on rookie years - even for non QBs. I would like to set up a bar of success in our minds, though. We have the Seahawks OC from last year, where they also drafted a 1st round WR to be the #3 while he is seasoned behind two talented vets.

In round numbers, Geno Smith (starting 15 games, Drew Lock got 2) threw 500 passes, 3600 yds, 20 TDs, 9 INTs. Over 17 games, if Caleb Williams puts that up as a rookie, I would be genuinely impressed. There are a lot of good defensive talents in this division and I think that those matchups are going to be tough on the rookie. I would think that Williams tosses more interceptions while he seasons, but that's life in the NFL.

For Geno, he dished it out to his top three receivers like so: DKMetcalf 1100 for 8 TDs (with only 66 catches), Lockett 900 for 5 TDs, and JSN with 600 and 4 TDs. Interestingly enough, JSN had about as many catches as DK Metcalf. For Williams, I think he is going to distribute it around differently - Moore is the big YAC threat of our top 3, but I expect the TD looks to go to Allen and Odunze, who are both the big body receivers who excel bringing in those contested catches.

Whether this team, and Williams specifically, matches Seattle from last year is not really my concern. I just think this is a good measuring stick for how well the offense is performing.

 

[gallagher]

Less concerned about stats and more interested in seeing growth from week to week. Hell have some good games and some stinkers. Highly unlikely he comes in and has an MVP season as some have suggested.

Would be great to see some of the “it” factor that everyone talks about franchise QBs having. Gotta say tho, it’s not that common for a highly touted prospect to be walking into a situation as good as this. He should have all the support he needs to be successful pending the OL holds up

I am right here with you. I want to see how he responds to those tough games. I want to see him figuring out on the field what works and what doesnt, and making adjustments along the way. I want to see a good body of work to grow on in the next offseason.

 

[remydat]

67% completion
4,250yards
200 rush yards
32 TDs passing
4 TDs rushing
10INTs
7 FUM

 

[Bust]

So your expectation is for CW to have a historic rookie year?

define historic. He leads bears to win vs Packers, Year 1 he becomes the walking pope for a week and the remaining fields fans abandons ship.

First Bears QB to pass for 4,000 yards + Packers victory + Year 1 = WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER

 

[Bearly]

Doesn't need to be a historic year. The typical #1 overall pick QB since Cam - over a 17 game season - is throwing for 4,000 yards and 20 TDs on average. With this roster, he ought to be able to meet that average. If he doesn't it would be a disappointment.

I just did the math and the averages for the 9 taken 1st since then are

17 TDs vs 13 INTs and 3356 yards.

Caleb should do better but it's odd if you look at the individual players. Some of the best QBs didn't start strong and got better while others that became journeymen started hot. It's actually not very predictive of specialness either way. It's why you have to give them a couple/few years to show what they are.

 

[gallagher]

You guys need to quit accepting mediocrity.

Cam Newton: 16 games, 4,051 yards, 21 TDs, 17 INTs (extrapolates to 4,304 yards, 22 TDs, 18 INTs in 17 game season)
Andrew Luck: 16 games, 4,374 yards, 23 TDs, 18 INTs (extrapolates to 4,647 yards, 24 TDs, 19 INTs in 17 game season)
Jameis Winston: 16 games, 4,042 yards, 22 TDs, 15 INTs (extrapolates to 4,294 yards, 23 TDs, 16 INTs in 17 game season)
Jared Goff: 7 games, 1,089 yards, 5 TDs, 7 INTs (extrapolates to 2,644 yards, 12 TDs, 17 INTs in 17 game season)
Baker Mayfield: 14 games, 3,725 yards, 27 TDs, 14 INTs (extrapolates to 4,523 yards, 32 TDs, 17 INTs in 17 game season)
Kyler Murray: 16 games, 3,722 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs (extrapolates to 3,954 yards, 21 TDs, 13 INTs in 17 game season)
Joe Burrow: 10 games, 2,688 yards, 13 TDs, 5 INTs (extrapolates to 4,569 yards, 22 TDs, 8 INTs in 17 game season)
Trevor Lawrence: 17 games, 3,641 yards, 12 TDs, 17 INTs
Bryce Young: 16 games, 2,877 yards, 11 TDs, 10 INTs (extrapolates to 3,056 yards, 12 TDs, 11 INTs in 17 game season)

Not to mention Justin Herbert: 15 games, 4,336 yards, 31 TDs, 10 INTs.

Anything less than 4,000 yards and 20-25 TDs is frankly unacceptable with this roster. Quit being fine with shitty QB play. The average number 1 overall QB going back to Cam Newton is throwing for 3,940 yards and 20 TDs.

Expecting anything less from a dude with this pedigree - who people are claiming is the best prospect since Luck or even Peyton Manning - who is throwing to D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett and DeAndre Swift ought to be breaking Bears single season passing records from day 1.

It isn't a high bar.

I appreciate your perspective and the number crunching, but I think we as a fan base should be a little more open that a rookie can make mistakes and build on them as he grows. I want him to be throwing enough to hit these benchmarks if he is successful, but he could just as easily have a dud year as a rookie while still showing that he has the chops to make it in this league.

Though I will say that I would be deflated if he doesn't show better than Bryce Young over 17 games. If we must set expectations, I would like to have those two compared side-by-side, given that their careers will be compared due to the massive trade between CHI and CAR.

 

[Anytime23]

4300 total yards
25 total TDs
Rating in the low 90s
Completion percentage around 62%

This isn’t the typical situation for a rookie QB, especially one defined as generational, as those guys are never drafted to anyone but the worst team in the league. They’ve already been working install with him. Hes way ahead of the curve.

I’m actually more intrigued by the target share for all of the pass catchers.

 

[ViggyStargdust]

I just did the math and the averages for the 9 taken 1st since then are

17 TDs vs 13 INTs and 3356 yards.

Caleb should do better but it's odd if you look at the individual players. Some of the best QBs didn't start strong and got better while others that became journeymen started hot. It's actually not very predictive of specialness either way. It's why you have to give them a couple/few years to show what they are.

Right. I extrapolated their numbers out to a 17 game season to have a uniform comparison. 17 game season didn’t start until 2021, and Burrow, Goff, Mayfield and Young didn’t play full seasons.

So while a guy like Burrow only threw for 2,680 yards, it would be disingenuous to say “even the great Joe Burrow didn’t clear 3,000 as a rookie” when he only played in 10 games and was on pace for 4,500 yards.

Even without that, 6/9 threw for more than the average you came to.

 

[WookieOnRitalin]

I bet the over-under will be set at 22 TDs.

Herbert threw 31 his rookie campaign. Peyton threw 26. Oddly enough, Mike Glennon threw 19 his first year.

Most Passing Touchdowns In A Rookie Season | StatMuse

Justin Herbert has the most passing touchdowns by a rookie, with 31 touchdowns in 2020.

www.statmuse.com

63% + 220 yards/game (3740 yds) + 22-24 touchdowns will be considered a good first year for Caleb.