Caleb Williams Projections

[Menchifus]

62% completion
3,800 yards
300 rush yards
16 TDs passing
5 TDs rushing
10 INTs
10 FUM

What do you guys think?

 

[Black Rainbow]

The best WR room in the NFL better score more than .94 TDs a game.

And how many of those 16 TDs are going to TEs and RBs?

 

[WestsideResider]

16 TDs is kinda laughable when Fields’ best season is 17

 

[Menchifus]

The best WR room in the NFL better score more than .94 TDs a game.

And how many of those 16 TDs is going to TEs and RBs?

As much as I'd like to be optimistic, Fields had 17 and 16 TDs the last 2 years. CJ Stroud, who had a great rookie year, only had 23. If Caleb gets more than 16, it won't be many more. Possibly 18. Remember, we have a defensive-minded head coach.

 

[Midway-monster84]

66% completion
4,000yards
400 rush yards
28 TDs passing
4 TDs rushing
7INTs
5 FUM

 

[Menchifus]

Trevor Lawrence had 12 TDs in 17 games his rookie year.
Most rookie QBs don't come into the league and light it up.

 

[Menchifus]

66% completion
4,000yards
400 rush yards
28 TDs passing
4 TDs rushing
7INTs
5 FUM

So he will be in the MVP discussion his rookie year?

 

[Myk]

How many on offense have we seen play? 3 maybe 5? We haven't even seen our OC's game plan. Too soon.
You might get an idea in preseason.

This seems like bait for the QB haters to make their unrealistic demands on a rookie QB before they start bashing them and tell you how dumb you are for not expecting more out of a rookie.

 

[Menchifus]

How many on offense have we seen play? 3 maybe 5? We haven't even seen our OC's game plan. Too soon.
You might get an idea in preseason.

This seems like bait for the QB haters to make their unrealistic demands on a rookie QB before they start bashing them and tell you how dumb you are for not expecting more out of a rookie.

There are already many projections out there for Caleb's rookie year. And it's not bait for trolling or bashing. Just a serious consideration for what's in store for this season.

I'm actually optimistic about the season and I predict we'll make the playoffs. But the low passing TD count is more a reflection of our personnel than anything. Allen, Moore, Kmet, Swift, Herbert are not home run hitters. So I see them moving the chains and then punching in TDs via the run.

 

[Black Rainbow]

Trevor Lawrence had 12 TDs in 17 games his rookie year.
Most rookie QBs don't come into the league and light it up.

And Baker Mayfield had 27 TDs in 13 starts his rookie year.

I think INTs will be high for Caleb, but with the best WR corps in the NFL, why shouldn't I expect 22-24 TDs?

 

[Nelly]

And Baker Mayfield had 27 TDs in 13 starts his rookie year.

I think INTs will be high for Caleb, but with the best WR corps in the NFL, why shouldn't I expect 22-24 TDs?

I think that's perfectly reasonable. ~4,000 yards, 24ish TDs, 10-12 picks, 62% completions, passer rating in the 90's, ~10 fumbles, ~40 sacks. That's what I'm looking for. I think it's perfectly reasonable for expectations to be high considering his pedigree and his supporting cast.

 

[Black Rainbow]

I think that's perfectly reasonable. ~4,000 yards, 24ish TDs, 10-12 picks, 62% completions, passer rating in the 90's, ~10 fumbles, ~40 sacks. That's what I'm looking for. I think it's perfectly reasonable for expectations to be high considering his pedigree and his supporting cast.

I don't even expect 4k yards and a 90 passer rating for a rookie. 3,500 would be excellent and a passer rating of 85+.

 

[Menchifus]

And Baker Mayfield had 27 TDs in 13 starts his rookie year.

I think INTs will be high for Caleb, but with the best WR corps in the NFL, why shouldn't I expect 22-24 TDs?

Moore and Allen, as good as they are, are not TD machines. And there's only one football to go around. They'll get 4-6 TDs each. There will be alot of yards but not many passing TDs.

 

[Myk]

And it's not bait for trolling or bashing.

I don't mean bait to troll. I mean like shark attractant

I'm thinking playoffs too. But stats? Too many unknown variables besides it being a rookie to guess that. If it was the same offense as last year guesses could be made by comparing QBs.
But 3 great WRs (one who's a rookie too), basically a whole new line, new RB, new OC? We've never even seen this with the Bears in my Bear watching life if ever.
Can't guess stats on that but oh yeah, playoffs.

 

[EDPeezy]

I get setting expectations low but 16 TD’s is a pretty small number. Projected over 17 games it has to at least be 20. 20 should really be the floor. I’d guess the Vegas o/u is in the low 20’s.

63% completion percentage
3400 yds
23 Passing TDs
11 INT
400 rushing yards

 

[Black Rainbow]

Moore and Allen, as good as they are, are not TD machines. And there's only one football to go around. They'll get 4-6 TDs each. There will be alot of yards but not many passing TDs.

You could be right. But I'd think most fans would be unhappy with that.

Like I've said, new OC, rookie QB, rookie WR, and none of the WRs/new QB have played together before - could be a lot of growing pains.

But to finish the year with only 16 TDs? I think Keenan Allen would have to get injured and Odunze would have to have a rookie year like Kevin White or David Terrell.

 

[Menchifus]

I get setting expectations low but 16 TD’s is a pretty small number. Projected over 17 games it has to at least be 20. 20 should really be the floor. I’d guess the Vegas o/u is in the low 20’s.

63% completion percentage
3400 yds
23 Passing TDs
11 INT
400 rushing yards

Your numbers are reasonable although I wouldn't expect as high as 23 TDs. My max projection would be 18-20. We just don't have a WR like a Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson that can win jumpballs in the endzone and get home runs behind the defense. Those guys can get 15 TDs in their sleep. Career highs for Allen and Moore are 8 TDs. They can get yardage but TDs are a whole other matter.

Now Odunze may be the wild card here. He had 13 TDs last year.

Alot of people are expecting Caleb to come in and play like Mahomes. But the reality is, all the running around and playground football won't work in the NFL. Mahomes is being favored by the refs and the league as the golden boy. He's had 53 INTs called back by penalty. The next most is Josh Allen with 7 INTs. As big a fan I am of Michael Jordan, it was the same with him. He got calls in his favor all the time. It's the way the leagues work. They need out-of-this-world heroes. So they favor certain players.

 

[Myk]

Moore and Allen, as good as they are, are not TD machines. And there's only one football to go around. They'll get 4-6 TDs each. There will be alot of yards but not many passing TDs.

I don't know about that. Last time we had 3 good WRs at once was with "washed up" Marshall, rookie Jefferieses and Bennet (and Forte) Cutler had 19 TDs. Marshall had 1500yds.

I'm pretty sure Moore, Allen and Odunze are a better trio.
I think it comes down to if Williams can do it as a rookie and if the Bears want to trust him.

 

[dbldrew]

As long as he is knocking on the 4000yard door by year 2 and ~4500yards by year 3 I won't really care how he did his rookie year.

 

[Black Rainbow]

But the reality is, all the running around and playground football won't work in the NFL.

Just a heads-up, bro.

CCS considers "playground football" or "backyard football," to be racist.

Just letting you know.