Caleb Williams Projections

[Bearly]

4300 total yards
25 total TDs
Rating in the low 90s
Completion percentage around 62%

This isn’t the typical situation for a rookie QB, especially one defined as generational, as those guys are never drafted to anyone but the worst team in the league. They’ve already been working install with him. Hes way ahead of the curve.

I’m actually more intrigued by the target share for all of the pass catchers.

I like these #s and agree with the comments. Finger crossed. Some will also depend on if a rather conservative staff will release the reigns.

 

[Anytime23]

You guys need to quit accepting mediocrity.

There’s a difference between accepting mediocrity and setting mediocre expectations.

 

[ViggyStargdust]

I appreciate your perspective and the number crunching, but I think we as a fan base should be a little more open that a rookie can make mistakes and build on them as he grows. I want him to be throwing enough to hit these benchmarks if he is successful, but he could just as easily have a dud year as a rookie while still showing that he has the chops to make it in this league.

Though I will say that I would be deflated if he doesn't show better than Bryce Young over 17 games. If we must set expectations, I would like to have those two compared side-by-side, given that their careers will be compared due to the massive trade between CHI and CAR.

I definitely agree with you, I just think that we as
Bears fans have been conditioned to think that a high drafted rookie QB struggling to hit 200 ypg is normal, and it just isn’t anymore.

He’s going to have ups and downs and bad games. But rookie QBs nowadays regularly have games where they throw for 300 yards, but were so used to our guys - whether Trubisky or Fields - looking like 2005 Kyle Orton that we think it’s normal to barely clear 150 yards. Fields’ inability to hit 200 yards was not normal.

Using a 17 game projection as a standard, Lawrence was below average for a first overall QB. I chose Cam as the cutoff, 1) because including Caleb it’s the last 10 guys, but 2) because Cam is when the trend for first overall QBs changes. It’s normal for these guys to be able to hit the ground running and play competently now.

 

[flabear]

62% completion
3,800 yards
300 rush yards
16 TDs passing
5 TDs rushing
10 INTs
10 FUM

What do you guys think?

4,000 yards passing, 25 TD passing, 5 rushing TD. 5 INT, 10 FUM

 

[bamainatlanta]

Trevor Lawrence had 12 TDs in 17 games his rookie year.
Most rookie QBs don't come into the league and light it up.

That’s because Lawrence is mid at best

 

[Nelly]

So your expectation is for CW to have a historic rookie year?

Among the best rookie seasons for a QB, yes.

 

[pseudonym]

62% completion
3,800 yards
300 rush yards
16 TDs passing
5 TDs rushing
10 INTs
10 FUM

What do you guys think?

Not bad. I think something more like:

62% completion
3,800 yards
300 rush yards
20 TDs passing
5 TDs rushing
10 INTs
5 FUM

But we're pretty close.

 

[Myk]

I definitely agree with you, I just think that we as
Bears fans have been conditioned to think that a high drafted rookie QB struggling to hit 200 ypg is normal, and it just isn’t anymore.

He’s going to have ups and downs and bad games. But rookie QBs nowadays regularly have games where they throw for 300 yards, but were so used to our guys - whether Trubisky or Fields - looking like 2005 Kyle Orton that we think it’s normal to barely clear 150 yards. Fields’ inability to hit 200 yards was not normal.

Using a 17 game projection as a standard, Lawrence was below average for a first overall QB. I chose Cam as the cutoff, 1) because including Caleb it’s the last 10 guys, but 2) because Cam is when the trend for first overall QBs changes. It’s normal for these guys to be able to hit the ground running and play competently now.

The mediocrity Bears fans have been conditioned to accept is the McCaskey fallacy that Bears are a defensive team to the exclusion of offense that has us playing some romanticized version of 1940's football that Papa Bear didn't do. The offensive leaders were from his time. The last time we were good we had offense and it was his team.

Even Orton elsewhere instantly threw 1K more and the QB who could compete elsewhere came here to throw 1K less. That is more than just a mediocre QB issue.

Nobody is this unlucky at picking QBs. We're either picking QBs unsuitable to compete in the modern NFL or we don't support them, probably a mix of both. We don't build teams that can keep up with 4K QBs.

Hopefully that has changed. It smells like it has but we often head into off season with high hopes that this time it will be different.

 

[HansGruber]

4200 yards
35 TD's
6 ints
ROTY

Bears!

 

[hyatt151]

62% completion
3,800 yards
300 rush yards
16 TDs passing
5 TDs rushing
10 INTs
10 FUM

What do you guys think?

very possible, better hope you're off on the turnovers

 

[msadows]

68% completion
3600 yards
25 TD's
11 INT's
250 Rushing yards
5 TD's
70 fumbles

 

[hyatt151]

4200 yards
35 TD's
6 ints
ROTY

Bears!

thats nuts

 

[msadows]

very possible, better hope you're off on the turnovers

That TD count wont happen if he's healthy and plays all 17.

There are just too many weapons for him not to stack up TD's. Bears also dont have a power back

 

[msadows]

thats nuts

Maybe, depends if the lions rookie db's end up playing well.

Otherwise the NFC North has some terrible pass d's. Having all those weapons and terrible Pass d's to play against makes calebs life pretty easy

 

[hyatt151]

Maybe, depends if the lions rookie db's end up playing well.

Otherwise the NFC North has some terrible pass d's. Having all those weapons and terrible Pass d's to play against makes calebs life pretty easy

what if just some of the rookie DB'S Perform well, the LIONS ONLY NEED ONE TO START

 

[hyatt151]

That TD count wont happen if he's healthy and plays all 17.

There are just too many weapons for him not to stack up TD's. Bears also dont have a power back

I actually think of Rochon as a power back

 

[hyatt151]

That TD count wont happen if he's healthy and plays all 17.

There are just too many weapons for him not to stack up TD's. Bears also dont have a power back

I'd bet the house that he does'nt throw 35 TD'S, and in fact he really does'nt need to

 

[Menchifus]

very possible, better hope you're off on the turnovers

I actually think I'm low on my turnover projection. I might be low on the pass TDs also. If I were to revise, I'd go...

62% comp
3800 yards
20 TDs
15 INTs
300 yards
5 TDs
10 FUM

Reason for the high INT and FUM is his tendency to play hero ball. He scrambles with the ball away from his body. And he likes to chuck up off-platform passes into double coverage. Those might have worked in college against mediocre competition, but not in the NFL against probowl rushers and DBs.

 

[jsu34]

3700 yds passing
300 yds rushing
29 passing TD 4 rushing
68% completion
10 ints

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

62-64% comp
4200+
24 TDs
< 12 interceptions
< 10 fumbles

Anything less imo would be considered meh for where he was drafted

He has a stacked offensive skill players, he knows this. If he can play as clean as he did in college those numbers should be easy for him.