Chicago Cubs 2023-24 OFFSEASON thread

[zack54attack]

It begins. Discuss.

 

[wonky73]

A bit of starting pitching, some tweaks to the offense... and overhaul the bullpen

 

[Castor76]

Not that I'd put much stock into it, but there's a report with Bruce Levine's name attached saying the Cubs could be targeting Pete Alonso. You know it costs PCA and then probably Mervis and a top 10 pitcher. If it were true, I think it would lean more towards accepting Bellinger not coming back though if they wanted to have a potentially monster line up there's enough PAs with CF/1B/DH to split time and give rest.

Just a rumor mill update at this point.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Not that I'd put much stock into it, but there's a report with Bruce Levine's name attached saying the Cubs could be targeting Pete Alonso. You know it costs PCA and then probably Mervis and a top 10 pitcher. If it were true, I think it would lean more towards accepting Bellinger not coming back though if they wanted to have a potentially monster line up there's enough PAs with CF/1B/DH to split time and give rest.

Just a rumor mill update at this point.

I'd be 100% in on Alonso, but his return to the Mets won't touch a top 3 prospect form the Cubs. A guy on a one year deal is gonna come relatively cheap, especially since he is a one trick pony that most teams can get, he's just slightly better than the rest at not striking out. He doesn't play good defense so goes against how most teams are building their teams. He is the best power hitter in the majors and would be a massive haul but his position value brings down his value in a trade, and so it shouldn't take much. Something like Wesneski, Triantos, and some very low level single A players is the highest it will go and that would be ripping the Cubs off.

 

[knoxville7]

Thing is if you let bellinger walk and acquire Alonso, this lineup becomes even more right handed heavy. Cubs need a good left handed hitting player or two IMO

 

[Castor76]

I'd be 100% in on Alonso, but his return to the Mets won't touch a top 3 prospect form the Cubs. A guy on a one year deal is gonna come relatively cheap, especially since he is a one trick pony that most teams can get, he's just slightly better than the rest at not striking out. He doesn't play good defense so goes against how most teams are building their teams. He is the best power hitter in the majors and would be a massive haul but his position value brings down his value in a trade, and so it shouldn't take much. Something like Wesneski, Triantos, and some very low level single A players is the highest it will go and that would be ripping the Cubs off.

I'm with you there. Truthfully, only thing I knew about Alonso before doing some looking today was he hits a bunch of homers.

 

[CSF77]

I would say the priorities are Bellinger and extending Steele.

Steele you are looking at 4 years of arb to cover. I would avg each year out at 10M. So 40M to start. Then I would add on 4 years. This takes him to 36 yo. Opt in/outs are fine. So we are looking at 140-160M.

Bellinger 10/300 should be his market. This should be top priority.


I don't see the point of trading for Alonzo. If Jed can't resign Cody then Chapman becomes priority #1 and Candy at 1B becomes a acceptable 1B option. After that you mix and match Morel/Mervis and Canario

But from what was said it seems that Bellinger will be a done deal. Jed most likely gives him no trade and player opt outs but 10/300 should be the bottom line. Add to it he loved playing in Wriggly. 80% chance it gets done.

 

[CSF77]

I'd be 100% in on Alonso, but his return to the Mets won't touch a top 3 prospect form the Cubs. A guy on a one year deal is gonna come relatively cheap, especially since he is a one trick pony that most teams can get, he's just slightly better than the rest at not striking out. He doesn't play good defense so goes against how most teams are building their teams. He is the best power hitter in the majors and would be a massive haul but his position value brings down his value in a trade, and so it shouldn't take much. Something like Wesneski, Triantos, and some very low level single A players is the highest it will go and that would be ripping the Cubs off.

Cassie or Alcantara with Caleb Kilian would be a done deal. Alacantara I'm okay with as he is a part of a large group of RH OF bats that Jed has hoarded. Cassie on the other hand I would put on the no touchy list.

I'm pretty sure that those 2 gets the trade moving. MLB ready pitcher and a top 100 OF about a year out. It fits the time line of the Mets.

That said I am Okay with a move like this as it gives opportunity to 2 guys that are most likely lost in the shuffle and gives Chicago a core power threat.

They would have to really look at getting Mervis a strong opportunity at that point. You are going to need to replace the loss of a LH smasher.

 

[bamainatlanta]

I just read the released, unredacted text messages from Trevor Bauer’s accuser. Holy **** was he maliciously smeared. That gold digger deserves jail time.

 

[CSF77]

https://www.si.com/mlb/cubs/news/cubs-prospect-cade-horton-max-scherzer-justin-verlander-comparison-matt9

 

[CSF77]

29 Players Elect Free Agency​

By Anthony Franco | October 6, 2023 at 4:33pm CDT

October brings postseason play for a handful of teams and their fanbases. Just over two-thirds of the league is now in offseason mode after being eliminated, however. As the season comes to a close, a number of veterans will hit minor league free agency.
These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.
Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. The first group, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:
Catchers

• Zack Collins (Guardians)
• Caleb Hamilton (Red Sox)
• Francisco Mejia (Rays)

Infielders

• Matt Beaty (Royals)
• Brandon Dixon (Padres)
• Josh Lester (Orioles)
• Taylor Motter (Cardinals)
• Kevin Padlo (Angels)
• Cole Tucker (Rockies)
• Tyler Wade (A’s)

Outfielders

• Abraham Almonte (Mets)
• Kyle Garlick (Twins)
• Derek Hill (Nationals)
• Bryce Johnson (Giants)
• Cody Thomas (A’s)

Pitchers

• Archie Bradley (Marlins)
• Jose Castillo (Marlins)
• Chase De Jong (Pirates)
• Geoff Hartlieb (Marlins)
• Zach Logue (Tigers)
• Mike Mayers (White Sox)
• Tyson Miller (Dodgers)
• Tommy Milone (Mariners)
• Reyes Moronta (Angels)
• Daniel Norris (Guardians)
• Spencer Patton (A’s)
• Peter Solomon (Orioles)
• Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates)
• Spenser Watkins (A’s)

 

[CSF77]

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2024​

By Anthony Franco and Steve Adams | October 6, 2023 at 10:52am CDT

Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 13 years.
In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.
If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription. Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, and our agency database.
The projections:


Cubs (9)

• Codi Heuer (4.000): $785K
• Nick Madrigal (3.163): $1.9MM
• Mike Tauchman (3.143): $2MM
• Nick Burdi (3.140): $800K
• Julian Merryweather (3.109): $1.3MM
• Patrick Wisdom (3.058): $2.6MM
• Adbert Alzolay (3.050): $2.5MM
• Mark Leiter Jr. (3.031): $1.6MM
• Justin Steele (2.143): $4.1MM

Guardians (10)

• Shane Bieber (5.097): $12.2MM
• Cam Gallagher (5.073): $1.3MM
• Ramon Laureano (4.165): $4.7MM
• Cal Quantrill (4.132): $6.6MM
• Josh Naylor (4.127): $7.2MM
• James Karinchak (3.099): $1.9MM
• Triston McKenzie (3.074): $1.8MM
• Enyel De Los Santos (3.015): $1.2MM
• Sam Hentges (2.157): $1.1MM
• Nick Sandlin (2.157): $1.1MM

Mets (16)

• Daniel Vogelbach (5.138): $2.6MM
• Trevor Gott (5.057): $2MM
• Elieser Hernandez (5.044): $1.6MM
• Drew Smith (5.034): $2.3MM
• Pete Alonso (5.000): $22MM
• Luis Guillorme (4.159): $1.7MM
• Tim Locastro (4.122): $1.6MM
• Joey Lucchesi (4.112): $2MM
• Sam Coonrod (4.078): $900K
• Jeff Brigham (3.142): $1.1MM
• John Curtiss (3.137): $1MM
• Michael Perez (3.095): $800K
• David Peterson (3.089): $2MM
• Danny Mendick (3.058): $1.1MM
• Rafael Ortega (3.035): $1.4MM
• DJ Stewart (2.168): $1.5MM

 

[CSF77]

Real question. If Cleveland decides to trade Shane Bieber's last year. Would you want Jed to push for it?

 

[Castor76]

What would you guys think about bringing back David Robertson for the pen? Has experience as closer, still having good K/BB ratio, and has been in Chicago before a couple of times.

 

[CSF77]

What would you guys think about bringing back David Robertson for the pen? Has experience as closer, still having good K/BB ratio, and has been in Chicago before a couple of times.

He would be fine.

 

[Castor76]

Is the only way Matt Mervis is still with the Cubs as an organization is if they miss out on Bellinger, Alonso, or any other proven MLB 1B? Not that I'm out on the guy because he got less than 100 PA at the MLB level during the time when the Cubs were not playing well at all, but if they do get and go with a proven MLB player, his value is best as an offseason trade chip. It's doubtful the Cubs would have him as a LH bench bat.

 

[TL1961]

Is the only way Matt Mervis is still with the Cubs as an organization is if they miss out on Bellinger, Alonso, or any other proven MLB 1B? Not that I'm out on the guy because he got less than 100 PA at the MLB level during the time when the Cubs were not playing well at all, but if they do get and go with a proven MLB player, his value is best as an offseason trade chip. It's doubtful the Cubs would have him as a LH bench bat.

I can’t really imagine any team would trade anything for Matt Mervis

 

[Castor76]

Things I'd like to see and expect to happen this offseason. Expect Stroman to opt in for 24. Gomes' option is picked up to be the #1 catcher one last year. Hendricks' option reworked to be for 2 years for 20M versus 1 year at 16M.

Really like to see - Bellinger re-signed for 6 years at 30M per but won't be mad at 8Y/270M. His 24 option is worth 25M so his asking price starts above there. Another like to see, Smyly, Wisdom, 4M, and perhaps Mervis traded to Oakland for C Cesar Gonzalez and LHP Brady Basso. Both are outside of Oakland's top 20, provide either mostly cheap help for Oakland, and for the Cubs frees up a couple of spots on the 26 man roster.

Like to see but lesser wants - Sign Nola or Snell as Stroman is gone after 24, if not traded before, and the Cubs need at least one more certified starter for 4Y120M but live with 6Y180M. Then re-sign Candelario for 2Y25M for 3B and 1B flexibility. Then sign Brandon Belt as a LH bench bat for 1Y4M. Then just sign help for the pen.

I can’t really imagine any team would trade anything for Matt Mervis

I wouldn't call him a centerpiece in any trade, but we're still talking abut a guy who in the past two seasons in the minors has a slash line of .297/.380/.576 with 63 2B and 58HR in 237 games played, mostly at AAA. Somebody is going to take him

 

[TL1961]

Things I'd like to see and expect to happen this offseason. Expect Stroman to opt in for 24. Gomes' option is picked up to be the #1 catcher one last year. Hendricks' option reworked to be for 2 years for 20M versus 1 year at 16M.

Really like to see - Bellinger re-signed for 6 years at 30M per but won't be mad at 8Y/270M. His 24 option is worth 25M so his asking price starts above there. Another like to see, Smyly, Wisdom, 4M, and perhaps Mervis traded to Oakland for C Cesar Gonzalez and LHP Brady Basso. Both are outside of Oakland's top 20, provide either mostly cheap help for Oakland, and for the Cubs frees up a couple of spots on the 26 man roster.

Like to see but lesser wants - Sign Nola or Snell as Stroman is gone after 24, if not traded before, and the Cubs need at least one more certified starter for 4Y120M but live with 6Y180M. Then re-sign Candelario for 2Y25M for 3B and 1B flexibility. Then sign Brandon Belt as a LH bench bat for 1Y4M. Then just sign help for the pen.


I wouldn't call him a centerpiece in any trade, but we're still talking abut a guy who in the past two seasons in the minors has a slash line of .297/.380/.576 with 63 2B and 58HR in 237 games played, mostly at AAA. Somebody is going to take him

My point is someone taking him just so you get them out of your organization is far different than saying you can get something for him.

 

[CSF77]

From what Jed said we have a few known things that they are planning.

1. Hendricks will stay.
2. The bull pen will be self developed.
3. They will discuss on a permanent position for Morel and he will work on mastering it in the off season.
4. PCA is being compared to Rizzo on the Pads pre trade. He will have a adjustment period in Iowa and not be on the team.

He didn't talk about much else. Bellinger has to be priority #1 in F/A. He did not mention Candy. So my theory is 3B will be the landing spot for Morel and he will end up being in Mesa all off season mastering it.