Chicago Cubs 2023-24 OFFSEASON thread

[Discus fish salesman]

That is a hole in one year. So rare it never happens.

Try getting on the green.

Signing Chapman, trading for Alonzo and resigning Candy would be a strong off-season.

Gives around 70+ HR and a solid rest program.

Cubs have a plus D SS at Iowa last year and had a gold glove upside. They would lose nothing D wise by resting Swanson or Horner.

So this would free up some trade chips to get Alonzo and deepen the pen.

All you really need right now

Let other teams deal with the final growing pains. Cubs are a major market. Act like it.

PCA I get. 80 rated D pays for itself.

This would be a big yawn offseason. I need your alternate personality to come out with an outrageous over the top offseason

 

[Castor76]

That is a hole in one year. So rare it never happens.

Try getting on the green.

Signing Chapman, trading for Alonzo and resigning Candy would be a strong off-season.

Gives around 70+ HR and a solid rest program.

Cubs have a plus D SS at Iowa last year and had a gold glove upside. They would lose nothing D wise by resting Swanson or Horner.

So this would free up some trade chips to get Alonzo and deepen the pen.

All you really need right now

Let other teams deal with the final growing pains. Cubs are a major market. Act like it.

PCA I get. 80 rated D pays for itself.

You say the Cubs should act like a major market but then say they should just be pussies. The Cubs got on the green but 3 putted the hole. this past year. Alonso is set to get about 22M in Arb this year and will be 29 in December. Bellinger is 6 months younger, hits LH, and is already familiar with the team and area. Only way Alonso is better is injury history. You want to spend about 60M on 3 guys who would improve the team but 2 are short term and the other is a pending FA. I think if they are going to do that, might as well at least try for the big chips and put the team on a WS path for the next 4-6 seasons.

Soto - Trade for him w/o an extension, He cost lesser assets. Before the introductory presser (take some aspirin) offer a 17Y612M dollar contract with opt outs at years 4, 7, and 10. AAV is 36M. He would collect 391M through year 10 with pay outs set at 33/36/38/40 then 43/44/43 then 40/38/36 and finally 34/33/32/31/31/30/30.

Bellinger - Offer 8 years and 220 million with opt outs at year 4 and 6 paying 130M and 180M in total at them. 35/35/30/30/25/25/20/20.

If things go badly and they aren't happy, either can be out within 4 years and both contracts are structured so that they can leave after the age 34 seasons and make a final go somewhere else or ride out at lower than AAV payouts. Also remind each player that any Cali based team would have to offer 675M and 245M to just beat the deals offered once you consider state income tax and a NY based team would have to offer 705M and 255M for the same reasons. Then it's a question of do they care more about the paycheck number or what's going into the actual bank account.

Combine with my previous posts and you have a team spending like a major market, hoping it's wise, and contending. Otherwise, you're just hoping for a repeat of 15-17 while avoiding the surrounding years.

 

[CSF77]

You say the Cubs should act like a major market but then say they should just be pussies. The Cubs got on the green but 3 putted the hole. this past year. Alonso is set to get about 22M in Arb this year and will be 29 in December. Bellinger is 6 months younger, hits LH, and is already familiar with the team and area. Only way Alonso is better is injury history. You want to spend about 60M on 3 guys who would improve the team but 2 are short term and the other is a pending FA. I think if they are going to do that, might as well at least try for the big chips and put the team on a WS path for the next 4-6 seasons.

Soto - Trade for him w/o an extension, He cost lesser assets. Before the introductory presser (take some aspirin) offer a 17Y612M dollar contract with opt outs at years 4, 7, and 10. AAV is 36M. He would collect 391M through year 10 with pay outs set at 33/36/38/40 then 43/44/43 then 40/38/36 and finally 34/33/32/31/31/30/30.

Bellinger - Offer 8 years and 220 million with opt outs at year 4 and 6 paying 130M and 180M in total at them. 35/35/30/30/25/25/20/20.

If things go badly and they aren't happy, either can be out within 4 years and both contracts are structured so that they can leave after the age 34 seasons and make a final go somewhere else or ride out at lower than AAV payouts. Also remind each player that any Cali based team would have to offer 675M and 245M to just beat the deals offered once you consider state income tax and a NY based team would have to offer 705M and 255M for the same reasons. Then it's a question of do they care more about the paycheck number or what's going into the actual bank account.

Combine with my previous posts and you have a team spending like a major market, hoping it's wise, and contending. Otherwise, you're just hoping for a repeat of 15-17 while avoiding the surrounding years.

Lets start with the basics.

1. Soto is a outfielder. The Cubs will not need one for a while.
2. Bellinger will cost closer to 30M AAV than 20M AAV. He would have to play 1B which will lower his market value than CF.

So in reality he could walk away closer to 300M due to his age and marketability as a CF. This is not a reach with the Yankee's in on him.

3. 3B is not addressed at all.


So this is what you are proposing:

1. Add another OF because it is cool to stock pile on top of the stock pile.
2. Force Cody to take less cash and a lesser role going forward.
3. Keep 3B in twirl a whirl and hope hitters forget it exists when swinging.

Sounds about right.



Like I said. The best method is to target a 3B and a 1B and retain a SH that plays both. This give a true rotation for the DH. This has been talked about on MLTR and other resources as David's preferred scenario for the DH. Morel was supposed to be that guy but the glove was not good enough to pull it off. And it forced David into a stationary DH which is not what he preferred to use. Not to mention it is pointless to waste a roster spot to a non position player. Those days are gone and not the DH is utilized as a pivot for giving semi off days and keeps the bench more utilized. 2022 was the catcher rotation that gave needed rest and extra PA to Wilson. That led to a career year.

I see Morel traded. This has been talked about on the Atlantic for a while. Morel has decent value right now. So the iron is hot so it is time to strike. Teams will see him as raw potential and cheap. TBH he could blow up next year and to a team with a opening at 2B it would end up as a steal.


Alonso we really don't know what his final year will net. He made 14.5M last year so a trade plus extension would nix that. He will be 29 next year. He is a Boras guy but Boras has done extensions. `I believe that he could get 240-260M but for a 40+ HR bat it is justified.

Bellinger's value decreases as a full time 1B as his raw power is not at that level. It is a simple fact. His value is due to him in a premium position and at that position his power being top end. At 1B or a corner OF he falls in the pack.

 

[CSF77]

and to be honest here. I said time to act like a major market and let other teams deal with the final polishing. It is not a new concept with Jed. He has traded out plenty of players that have turned into fine MLB players. Paredes and Candy. Closer in Det was a Cub and Pierce Johnson. So They have created plenty of quality players but it took opportunity on smaller markets to seal the deal.

One of the problems being in a major market. When the team starts to win the fan base is not happy with growing pains. After 2016 we saw plenty of pains going on and Jed had to toss away talent to fix it. It could happen again but less likely due to the changes done to improve the pitching developmental part of the system. They have pumped out talent of late. To the point that Jed is able to utilize it vs trade it away for another team to finish up the developmental process.

 

[Castor76]

Lets start with the basics.

1. Soto is a outfielder. The Cubs will not need one for a while.
2. Bellinger will cost closer to 30M AAV than 20M AAV. He would have to play 1B which will lower his market value than CF.

So in reality he could walk away closer to 300M due to his age and marketability as a CF. This is not a reach with the Yankee's in on him.

3. 3B is not addressed at all.


So this is what you are proposing:

1. Add another OF because it is cool to stock pile on top of the stock pile.
2. Force Cody to take less cash and a lesser role going forward.
3. Keep 3B in twirl a whirl and hope hitters forget it exists when swinging.

Sounds about right.



Like I said. The best method is to target a 3B and a 1B and retain a SH that plays both. This give a true rotation for the DH. This has been talked about on MLTR and other resources as David's preferred scenario for the DH. Morel was supposed to be that guy but the glove was not good enough to pull it off. And it forced David into a stationary DH which is not what he preferred to use. Not to mention it is pointless to waste a roster spot to a non position player. Those days are gone and not the DH is utilized as a pivot for giving semi off days and keeps the bench more utilized. 2022 was the catcher rotation that gave needed rest and extra PA to Wilson. That led to a career year.

I see Morel traded. This has been talked about on the Atlantic for a while. Morel has decent value right now. So the iron is hot so it is time to strike. Teams will see him as raw potential and cheap. TBH he could blow up next year and to a team with a opening at 2B it would end up as a steal.


Alonso we really don't know what his final year will net. He made 14.5M last year so a trade plus extension would nix that. He will be 29 next year. He is a Boras guy but Boras has done extensions. `I believe that he could get 240-260M but for a 40+ HR bat it is justified.

Bellinger's value decreases as a full time 1B as his raw power is not at that level. It is a simple fact. His value is due to him in a premium position and at that position his power being top end. At 1B or a corner OF he falls in the pack.

1) Soto is a clear upgrade to anything the Cubs have in the OF right now. It is cool to get the 100% known versus hoping those guys on the farm pan out. So getting him and moving on from Happ is better for the Cubs. The Cubs need an impact bat in the line up. Soto is that bat.
2) My offer to Belli at 27.5 AAV and is 30 AAV over those first 6 years. You should math better. The Yankees are already sitting at 20M over the CBT. You think they want to go for 50M?
3) The Cubs were 13th, 11th, 13th, 12th, and then 14th at 3B in BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/HR. So the need for upgrade at 3B isn't as great as people might think. And aren't the Yankees supposed to be in on Chapman as well? There's another 25M or so to add to that tax.

Back to Bellinger - 26 HR at First would have ranked 11th in MLB this past season. In CF it was 7th, not a big difference. Mets and Yankees are a bit CBT strapped to be trouble. Giants are a legit threat. If they really want to give Belli a deal around 250M and at 8 years, I can't blame the guy. But it's not like the Cubs couldn't then just turn back to Candelario or trade for Alonso if that's the case. Either way, it sure would be good if the Cubs got a true impact bat like Soto who is a .280/.400/.500 machine with 30+ HR pop. Do you think Bellinger takes a pay cut to be more a 1Bman than CF?

 

[CSF77]

1) Soto is a clear upgrade to anything the Cubs have in the OF right now. It is cool to get the 100% known versus hoping those guys on the farm pan out. So getting him and moving on from Happ is better for the Cubs. The Cubs need an impact bat in the line up. Soto is that bat.
2) My offer to Belli at 27.5 AAV and is 30 AAV over those first 6 years. You should math better. The Yankees are already sitting at 20M over the CBT. You think they want to go for 50M?
3) The Cubs were 13th, 11th, 13th, 12th, and then 14th at 3B in BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/HR. So the need for upgrade at 3B isn't as great as people might think. And aren't the Yankees supposed to be in on Chapman as well? There's another 25M or so to add to that tax.

Back to Bellinger - 26 HR at First would have ranked 11th in MLB this past season. In CF it was 7th, not a big difference. Mets and Yankees are a bit CBT strapped to be trouble. Giants are a legit threat. If they really want to give Belli a deal around 250M and at 8 years, I can't blame the guy. But it's not like the Cubs couldn't then just turn back to Candelario or trade for Alonso if that's the case. Either way, it sure would be good if the Cubs got a true impact bat like Soto who is a .280/.400/.500 machine with 30+ HR pop. Do you think Bellinger takes a pay cut to be more a 1Bman than CF?

I believe that Jed wont do any of the above. He will have a hard cap in place.

Some move will make sense like Candy. He is a clear upgrade to either Morel or Mad at 3B and at 1B he has no pier.

There have been some Alonso talk on the Atlantic so when there is smoke it is for a reason. Not saying that Jed will pay the cost but there will be talk. Cubs have the #4 farm and MLB ready talent so they are a ideal match up for the Mets who are punting and getting ready for 2025. That is why Morel makes sense for them. Ready and has control. Then they can take a projectible arm and a MLB ready arm that can start but CHI has not given opportunity. Daniel Palencia has been talked about on this level. He was pushed up like Little this year but both were SP before.

The Cubs have a deep talent pool that another team with a different vision can capitalize. It has happened over and over over the years. Jed gets tunnel vision and misses out and other teams know this.

 

[CSF77]

If it was me I would get Little ready to start and trade Wicks, Morel and talk with NYM on balancing the deal out. Maybe add Palencia and others for Diaz to give the pen a real boost.

Mets have a history in self producing pitching so give them guys that they feel they can make all stars.

 

[Castor76]

I believe that Jed wont do any of the above. He will have a hard cap in place.

Some move will make sense like Candy. He is a clear upgrade to either Morel or Mad at 3B and at 1B he has no pier.

There have been some Alonso talk on the Atlantic so when there is smoke it is for a reason. Not saying that Jed will pay the cost but there will be talk. Cubs have the #4 farm and MLB ready talent so they are a ideal match up for the Mets who are punting and getting ready for 2025. That is why Morel makes sense for them. Ready and has control. Then they can take a projectible arm and a MLB ready arm that can start but CHI has not given opportunity. Daniel Palencia has been talked about on this level. He was pushed up like Little this year but both were SP before.

The Cubs have a deep talent pool that another team with a different vision can capitalize. It has happened over and over over the years. Jed gets tunnel vision and misses out and other teams know this.

My post isn't about what I think will happen. It's about what I want to happen.

My realistic expectations. Jed makes a level of attempt to bring back Bellinger, the years probably get too much and he moves on to Alonso as the back up plan with bringing back Candelario as the emergency plan. Gomes' option is picked up. Hendricks' deal is reworked to be 2 years at 10M per. If it's Alonso, Hendricks, and Gomes, that's going to be about 36.5M of the available CBT space taken up leaving around 10M. With Alzolay, Leiter, and Merryweather as the main pen arms and Cuas, Little, and Assad as other available arms, maybe he takes a dip at one available BP arm addition. That would set them up to have about 53M coming off the books after 24 but needing to fill 1B, SP, and C. It's almost the very same position they are in now.

I know my hope has a lot of moving parts, but they aren't unreasonable. The Cubs need to move on from some guys now and they have the assets to make it happen without giving the farm away in the process. Hoping guys pan out is not a plan.

 

[CSF77]

My post isn't about what I think will happen. It's about what I want to happen.

My realistic expectations. Jed makes a level of attempt to bring back Bellinger, the years probably get too much and he moves on to Alonso as the back up plan with bringing back Candelario as the emergency plan. Gomes' option is picked up. Hendricks' deal is reworked to be 2 years at 10M per. If it's Alonso, Hendricks, and Gomes, that's going to be about 36.5M of the available CBT space taken up leaving around 10M. With Alzolay, Leiter, and Merryweather as the main pen arms and Cuas, Little, and Assad as other available arms, maybe he takes a dip at one available BP arm addition. That would set them up to have about 53M coming off the books after 24 but needing to fill 1B, SP, and C. It's almost the very same position they are in now.

I know my hope has a lot of moving parts, but they aren't unreasonable. The Cubs need to move on from some guys now and they have the assets to make it happen without giving the farm away in the process. Hoping guys pan out is not a plan.

My ideal season is:

1. Give CF to PCA. Have him take high fastballs all off season until he adapts to it. If he is broken then go with Tauchman and Canario
2, Resign Candy for DH
3. Sign Chapman
4. Trade Mad, Wicks, Morel and a lower prospect to the Mets for Edwin Diaz and Alonso.
5. Have Little and Brown both get extended for the rotation.
6. Bring up Luis Vazquez for main UI.
7. Keep Alexander Canario to be the 4th OF. He has played all 3 spots and adds power to all.

 

[CSF77]

Then in 2025 get into the pitching market.

Having Steele, Horten, Little, Brown as the self produced. Hendricks and Stroman off the table. Taillon will be at 2/36 at this point and has a limited no trade. So he could be a strong trade guy if Chi gets into the sweepstakes.

Top 2 guys:

Max Fried (31)
Walker Buehler (30)

Now if the 4 self grown blow up then it really don't matter. Roll with Taillon and lock the kids up long term.

I am more of a top end guy TBH. Wicks has a strong make up but he just doesn't miss bats enough to be on a play off team. Little pops 98 easy and has more raw talent. I feel that this is a simple decision.

 

[Bearcub13]

A bit of starting pitching, some tweaks to the offense... and overhaul the bullpen

We need to add two quality starters, who will be able to pitch into the post season. Our entire staff went all dead arm in September....aside from the improvements in the bull pen.

 

[Bearcub13]

It might not be a bad idea. Hitters who lack knowledge of the strike zone tend to blow hot and cold. Baez is a good example of that. And Morel doesn't have the great glove to fall back on like Javy had. At the very least, I'd investigate as to what they could get for him. The only thing is that if he ever learns the strike zone, he could be a monster.

Like Javier Baez even knows a strike zone exists....

 

[Castor76]

Like Javier Baez even knows a strike zone exists....

I think Javy's idea of the strike zone was any pitch he thought he could strike with his bat.

 

[TL1961]

My ideal season is:

1. Give CF to PCA. Have him take high fastballs all off season until he adapts to it. If he is broken then go with Tauchman and Canario
2, Resign Candy for DH
3. Sign Chapman
4. Trade Mad, Wicks, Morel and a lower prospect to the Mets for Edwin Diaz and Alonso.
5. Have Little and Brown both get extended for the rotation.
6. Bring up Luis Vazquez for main UI.
7. Keep Alexander Canario to be the 4th OF. He has played all 3 spots and adds power to all.

Why fo you want to get rid of Wicks so badly?

 

[CSF77]

Why fo you want to get rid of Wicks so badly?

Not just me. Most people are not hot on him. Just doesn't miss bats enough he is a back of the rotation talent with his current stuff.

 

[CSF77]

This would be a big yawn offseason. I need your alternate personality to come out with an outrageous over the top offseason

Hmmm. I'm trying to be a bit with in reason.

2B Hoerner
SS Swanson
LF Happ
1B Alonso
RF Suzuki
DH Candy
3B Chapman
C Gomes
CF PCA

It has potential.

Rotation

Steele
Stroman(if he resigns)
Taillon
Little
Hendricks

Brown in AAA building pitch counts

 

[JP Hochbaum]

THe offseason is highly dependent on what SD thinks they can get for Soto, Cleveland for Ramirez and the Mets for Alonzo. All of them are on deals that their team doesn't want anymore.|

Theoretically Alonso should be the cheapest since he is an ARB year and not a premium position. He would take a few prospects outside of the top 5, anyone who says otherwise is just not realistic from the Mets side.

Jose Ramirez is 31 years old, incredibly consistent year in and year out offensively and defensively. He has several years left on his deal but Cleveland is trying desperately to trim salary and would likely not cost much considering another older player, at a non-premium position and his salary is prohibitive to quite a few teams.

Trading for those two guys makes the most sense as it gives us 70 homers over Belly's 25, as PCA takes over CF, and Wisdom is relegated to match up duty, or thrown into a trade. And it wouldn't deplete the top end of our system, we can offer up guys that would normally be rule 5 draft casualties in a year or two. Rebuilding teams like those guys because they go straight on the 40 man and start producing, think of Vasquez as a recent example.

The wrinkle comes in if Soto is available and the Cubs feel like off loading Happ who is a team leader and good to great in LF as a hitter and fielder. Obviously Soto blows him away in hitting and age and future production. But he would likely cost the most prospect wise.

Bullpen wise it seems the Cubs are hot on the lefty Japanese saves leader that is still only 28 years old.

 

[CSF77]

THe offseason is highly dependent on what SD thinks they can get for Soto, Cleveland for Ramirez and the Mets for Alonzo. All of them are on deals that their team doesn't want anymore.|

Theoretically Alonso should be the cheapest since he is an ARB year and not a premium position. He would take a few prospects outside of the top 5, anyone who says otherwise is just not realistic from the Mets side.

Jose Ramirez is 31 years old, incredibly consistent year in and year out offensively and defensively. He has several years left on his deal but Cleveland is trying desperately to trim salary and would likely not cost much considering another older player, at a non-premium position and his salary is prohibitive to quite a few teams.

Trading for those two guys makes the most sense as it gives us 70 homers over Belly's 25, as PCA takes over CF, and Wisdom is relegated to match up duty, or thrown into a trade. And it wouldn't deplete the top end of our system, we can offer up guys that would normally be rule 5 draft casualties in a year or two. Rebuilding teams like those guys because they go straight on the 40 man and start producing, think of Vasquez as a recent example.

The wrinkle comes in if Soto is available and the Cubs feel like off loading Happ who is a team leader and good to great in LF as a hitter and fielder. Obviously Soto blows him away in hitting and age and future production. But he would likely cost the most prospect wise.

Bullpen wise it seems the Cubs are hot on the lefty Japanese saves leader that is still only 28 years old.

few things:

Jose Ramirez would be ideal if Chapman is not on the table. I would rather toss cash than prospect coin. I see this as unlikely as it would mean that Cody most likely takes the Cubs offer to play 1B and CHI then would need to trade for a 3B.

But there is history with the GM from the Cubs coming from the Guardians. So you would think that he could expand on a trade. Like taking Shane Bieber - Stats - Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

As long as he is healthy he is a 5 fWAR pitcher. Numbers don't lie. That trade would cost a bit of weight in prospects. I would expect Brown, Alcantara, and Shaw on the table for this.


Contract to absorb.

24	31	Cleveland Guardians	$17,000,000
2025	32	Cleveland Guardians	$19,000,000
2026	33	Cleveland Guardians	$21,000,000
2027	34	Cleveland Guardians	$23,000,000
2028	35	Cleveland Guardians	$25,000,000

 

[beckdawg]

Lot of focus on Soto obviously but i think Trout might be an interesting name to watch. LA owes him 7 years at $260 mil and they are basically dead in the water with Ohtani set to leave. Trout probably doesn't have a ton of value right now either given his recent stretch with injuries. To even get him back to "market value" i feel like he'd basically need to be down to like $25 mil a year give his age which is like 90-100 mil LA would need to eat. That being said being able to plug him into DH more would be an enticing option if you can keep him healthy

 

[knoxville7]

Lot of focus on Soto obviously but i think Trout might be an interesting name to watch. LA owes him 7 years at $260 mil and they are basically dead in the water with Ohtani set to leave. Trout probably doesn't have a ton of value right now either given his recent stretch with injuries. To even get him back to "market value" i feel like he'd basically need to be down to like $25 mil a year give his age which is like 90-100 mil LA would need to eat. That being said being able to plug him into DH more would be an enticing option if you can keep him healthy

If only he was a lefty

I still think the cubs need a high quality lefty bat in the middle of the order, especially with Bellinger now a FA