Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[SilenceS]

Baez 3 for 5 with no K's. Safe to say he wasn't in a slump or a hot streak. He was balancing out.

He hit .317 in the month of may with close to a .900 OPS.

 

[SilenceS]

A little update for Javier Baez since the Cubs have about another week or so before pressure may ensue to bring up another bat.

Javier Baez for the month of May

105 AB, .314 BA, .392 OBP, .505 SLG, .896 OPS, 5 homeruns, 21 RBI's.

24.2% K rate, 8.3% walk rate. Overall Wrc+137.

He has had 126 PA so far this season. I think the Cubs are going to have to take notice. No trades are being done soon and your offense is lacking another bat. Baez is doing almost everything they have asked of him.

Oh, and he stole 6 bases with 1 CS.

 

[Boobaby1]

A little update for Javier Baez since the Cubs have about another week or so before pressure may ensue to bring up another bat.

Javier Baez for the month of May

105 AB, .314 BA, .392 OBP, .505 SLG, .896 OPS, 5 homeruns, 21 RBI's.

24.2% K rate, 8.3% walk rate. Overall Wrc+137.

He has had 126 PA so far this season. I think the Cubs are going to have to take notice. No trades are being done soon and your offense is lacking another bat. Baez is doing almost everything they have asked of him.

Oh, and he stole 6 bases with 1 CS.

Will he transition to LF? That is about the only place he can play, and is he going to get enough AB's?

Personally, I don't think they do a thing with him for the better part of the year unless another injury comes in to play. I think they will search for another bat elsewhere that is tied to a short contract.

I think they would be better served to pick up someone, and then let Baez get his extended reps in AAA.

If he comes up again and busts, you have B-Jax and Josh Vitters 2.0.

This is not the time to do any experimenting IMO.

 

[SilenceS]

Will he transition to LF? That is about the only place he can play, and is he going to get enough AB's?

Personally, I don't think they do a thing with him for the better part of the year unless another injury comes in to play. I think they will search for another bat elsewhere that is tied to a short contract.

I think they would be better served to pick up someone, and then let Baez get his extended reps in AAA.

If he comes up again and busts, you have B-Jax and Josh Vitters 2.0.

This is not the time to do any experimenting IMO.

Far more talented then them 2 and he is making adjustments that neither of them made. If Baez came up, he would play everyday. The Cubs have a glaring hole in their lineup. Baez is the closest one ready and has made the necessary adjustments so far.

Also, what would the Cubs be experimenting with? Baez playing LF or Kris Bryant going out to LF? Baez would have little issue and Bryant is athletic enough to not have an issue either.

Another thing, the Cubs offense could get much worse. Solar only saving grace is that he has an astronomical BABIP. He has almost a .400 BABIP which is in no way sustainable and will drive his average down sooner or later. He is striking out at almost a 33% k rate and walking at a 7.4 % rate.

Addison Russell is striking out at almost 36% rate and carrying an unsustainable BABIP. He has struck out 34% in the last month so it isn't that he is transitioning. He is probably going to be like this all year.

Oh, and I forgot the best thing about Baez in AAA. He is hitting over .340 against righties.

The lineup is already struggling and it could get much worse. Adding a David DeJesus type bat in mid july is not going to be the saving grace. Im not saying Baez is but he is probably the Cubs best bet at an impact bat this season. They gain an extra year on him in about a week. The Cubs would be stupid to dismiss what he has done.

 

[beckdawg]

This is why I love stats. People seemingly are clamoring for Baez to add an impact bat and to trade for Hamels to add impact pitching. I mentioned in the trade discussion thread the cubs starters have been one of the 5 best groups in the majors which probably surprises people to hear. As for hitting, Cubs currently score 4.06 runs per game which is a tick below the MLB average of 4.16. That's 19th in MLB. In the NL that's basically right at average(4.07 vs the 4.06 they score and they are 9th in the NL. However, they are hitting .223/.333/.336 with runners in scoring position this season(497 PAs). They have a .295 BABIP in that situation so it's probably not "luck" based. You have to figure if they hit .250-.260 there that's another 10-20 runs which puts them some where in the top 7 or top 5 depending.

With all respect to Baez, it's doubtful he solves that issue. The rookies are hitting the following there
Soler - .191/.273/.277
Bryant - .385/.509/.615(did we know he was good?)
Russell - .233/.303/.400

Basically, the only guys hitting above .250 with more than 10 chances are Bryant, Rizzo, and Montero. If anything I'd argue Baez likely compounds that issue by having another young hitter in there though Cogs isn't exactly setting a high bar with .185/.353/.407. That said he has a .200 BABIP in those situations and given a .350 OBP I think eventually his sequencing will even out a bit. I'm not sure how relevant last year was for Baez but to throw the info out there he hit .159/.213/.205 with a .259 BABIP last year.

So, to me the "impact" they need is to learn to hit with RISP. That's not to say they don't eventually do something with Baez but I don't really think it's as open and shut as him solving all their issues.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Far more talented then them 2 and he is making adjustments that neither of them made. If Baez came up, he would play everyday. The Cubs have a glaring hole in their lineup. Baez is the closest one ready and has made the necessary adjustments so far.

Also, what would the Cubs be experimenting with? Baez playing LF or Kris Bryant going out to LF? Baez would have little issue and Bryant is athletic enough to not have an issue either.

Another thing, the Cubs offense could get much worse. Solar only saving grace is that he has an astronomical BABIP. He has almost a .400 BABIP which is in no way sustainable and will drive his average down sooner or later. He is striking out at almost a 33% k rate and walking at a 7.4 % rate.

Addison Russell is striking out at almost 36% rate and carrying an unsustainable BABIP. He has struck out 34% in the last month so it isn't that he is transitioning. He is probably going to be like this all year.

Oh, and I forgot the best thing about Baez in AAA. He is hitting over .340 against righties.

The lineup is already struggling and it could get much worse. Adding a David DeJesus type bat in mid july is not going to be the saving grace. Im not saying Baez is but he is probably the Cubs best bet at an impact bat this season. They gain an extra year on him in about a week. The Cubs would be stupid to dismiss what he has done.

Just one minor quibble, Soler has a high BABIP, because he has a very high LD%. Those two tend to go hand in hand. It is his unexpected K rate that is driving his average down. I would actually be excited about him taking off soon.

 

[SilenceS]

Just one minor quibble, Soler has a high BABIP, because he has a very high LD%. Those two tend to go hand in hand. It is his unexpected K rate that is driving his average down. I would actually be excited about him taking off soon.

Yes, but it doesn't last. His babip is close to .400 the babip is balls in play. He will sit at the most .330. Strikeouts have nothing to do with it. Soler has not learned the breaking ball. Yet again, it is perception. Baez is 22. Younger then Bryant and Soler and yet his k rate is an issue and the others are not. It's perception. Baez not being brought up again would be a dumb move because of his potential. Multiple scouts are saying he is a new person. Mentality and skill wise. The Cubs aren't winning the World Series. They need to find out who is a mainstay and who needs to go.


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[SilenceS]

This is why I love stats. People seemingly are clamoring for Baez to add an impact bat and to trade for Hamels to add impact pitching. I mentioned in the trade discussion thread the cubs starters have been one of the 5 best groups in the majors which probably surprises people to hear. As for hitting, Cubs currently score 4.06 runs per game which is a tick below the MLB average of 4.16. That's 19th in MLB. In the NL that's basically right at average(4.07 vs the 4.06 they score and they are 9th in the NL. However, they are hitting .223/.333/.336 with runners in scoring position this season(497 PAs). They have a .295 BABIP in that situation so it's probably not "luck" based. You have to figure if they hit .250-.260 there that's another 10-20 runs which puts them some where in the top 7 or top 5 depending.

With all respect to Baez, it's doubtful he solves that issue. The rookies are hitting the following there
Soler - .191/.273/.277
Bryant - .385/.509/.615(did we know he was good?)
Russell - .233/.303/.400

Basically, the only guys hitting above .250 with more than 10 chances are Bryant, Rizzo, and Montero. If anything I'd argue Baez likely compounds that issue by having another young hitter in there though Cogs isn't exactly setting a high bar with .185/.353/.407. That said he has a .200 BABIP in those situations and given a .350 OBP I think eventually his sequencing will even out a bit. I'm not sure how relevant last year was for Baez but to throw the info out there he hit .159/.213/.205 with a .259 BABIP last year.

So, to me the "impact" they need is to learn to hit with RISP. That's not to say they don't eventually do something with Baez but I don't really think it's as open and shut as him solving all their issues.

This is the opposite of sabers. Sabers say there is no clutch and things will balance out. Them hitting in risp is more wishful thinking then a player changing.


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[JP Hochbaum]

Yes, but it doesn't last. His babip is close to .400 the babip is balls in play. He will sit at the most .330. Strikeouts have nothing to do with it. Soler has not learned the breaking ball. Yet again, it is perception. Baez is 22. Younger then Bryant and Soler and yet his k rate is an issue and the others are not. It's perception. Baez not being brought up again would be a dumb move because of his potential. Multiple scouts are saying he is a new person. Mentality and skill wise. The Cubs aren't winning the World Series. They need to find out who is a mainstay and who needs to go.


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I agree on Baez, I think Schwarber should be the call up before Baez. But the part I disagree on is SOler's BABIP, typically if your LD% is .30, your BABIP will be .7-.8 higher. So it isn't abnormally high, it is just how well Soler hits line drives.

 

[TL1961]

Will he transition to LF? That is about the only place he can play, and is he going to get enough AB's?

Personally, I don't think they do a thing with him for the better part of the year unless another injury comes in to play. I think they will search for another bat elsewhere that is tied to a short contract.

I think they would be better served to pick up someone, and then let Baez get his extended reps in AAA.

If he comes up again and busts, you have B-Jax and Josh Vitters 2.0.

This is not the time to do any experimenting IMO.

I wouldn't consider bringing him up "an experiment", and I would be surprised if they traded for a bat. Maybe a cheap pickup (ala Grady Sizemore), but not much more.

Baez can likely play left as well as Coghlan, but he may not be the guy who goes to LF.

 

[DaBullsDaCubsDaHawksDitka]

Holley was mentioning on the post game how he has really liked the way Baez has slowed his top half down this year and he isn’t spinning off the ball as much as he has in the past. He never really had a problem with the big leg kick but it appears Javy doesn’t use that as much either so he really seems to be making the adjustments he needs to.

Will be interesting to see the pitching match-ups in these IL games and whether or not they bring Baez up to DH.

 

[CRM 114]

Holley was mentioning on the post game how he has really liked the way Baez has slowed his top half down this year and he isn’t spinning off the ball as much as he has in the past. He never really had a problem with the big leg kick but it appears Javy doesn’t use that as much either so he really seems to be making the adjustments he needs to.

Will be interesting to see the pitching match-ups in these IL games and whether or not they bring Baez up to DH.

Boring.

 

[beckdawg]

This is the opposite of sabers. Sabers say there is no clutch and things will balance out. Them hitting in risp is more wishful thinking then a player changing.


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If you are really into metrics as much as you say then you know that is a totally inaccurate statement. Fangraphs themselves has leverage index on pretty much any place you want to look. That's their version of "clutch." For whatever reason people have trouble understanding what people talking metrics are saying. It's not that there's no so such thing as clutch hitting. It's that generally speaking good hitters don't hit any better/worse in clutch situation than they do in normal situations. As such, the people who get called clutch aren't the ones who play significantly better in the clutch. The reverse is also true that people who aren't generally thought of as clutch like ARod for example typically bat the same as they did any other time over a large enough sample.

As this pertains to the cubs, it's a rather gaping hole to hit .220ish with runners in scoring position. It makes an offense look far worse than it truly is in terms of total runs scored because they arguably should be scoring runs but aren't.

 

[DaBullsDaCubsDaHawksDitka]

Anybody have a best guess where E. Jimenez will start this year? Back in Arizona or SS Eugene? Thanks

 

[Boobaby1]

I wouldn't consider bringing him up "an experiment", and I would be surprised if they traded for a bat. Maybe a cheap pickup (ala Grady Sizemore), but not much more.

Baez can likely play left as well as Coghlan, but he may not be the guy who goes to LF.

True. But like I said, you get a guy tied to a short contract, or something a team wants to give up on or put on waivers and pick up a player that way.

Dan Vogelbach is going nowhere with the Cubs. This is why I hope he keeps up his pace and the Cubs sell high on him as a bat to an AL team.

The Cubs have dealt with a few teams in the past, and you would have to figure for LF, that Zobrist would be the ideal candidate, followed by Marlon Byrd, Gomes, and then Choo (who is tied to an abnormal contract and not worth it).

Byrd is the only one after Zobrist I would even consider, and he isn't exactly lighting it up, but would come cheap, and could platoon with Coghlan as an option.

Not a whole lot out there. The Cubs may just have to remain patient or go with one of the above players until some in-house guys come up. Surely they have something to throw out there between Baez, Almora, Schwarber, and McKinney for the future?

 

[CSF77]

Zobrist would be the ideal target. It would cost no more than a 30-35 ranged prospect. Cubs would be taking on the rest of his contract and for a few months. So that is about the net value that they would be gaining. On the flip side if they wanted to pursue him in the off season and he has that tag on him it would cost them their first unprotected pick and the pool for that pick. IE 2nd round cash pool.

So in view of that it would be far better to get Ben for a 30ish rated player in the system and then be able to resign him as a F/A next year. VS loose the cash pool to sign him by doing nothing. Now yes they could also do nothing and let him get traded this year and then shoot after him for next year. But that is not helping this year.

In the system there are no legit LF options major league ready. The only options have been ass pull moves at best. Like pushing this guy to LF who has not played there and is not getting time in there to even make the suggestion remotely viable. To this point the only guy that has been getting time in LF has been Alcantara but that is just one of the many spots that he has played in Iowa. He has been rotating at 2B, 3B and LF all season down there.

 

[TL1961]

Bryant to LF. Baez to IF seems like most likely internal option. That works for me (though Bryant has been good at 3rd)

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Zobrist would be the ideal target. It would cost no more than a 30-35 ranged prospect. Cubs would be taking on the rest of his contract and for a few months. So that is about the net value that they would be gaining. On the flip side if they wanted to pursue him in the off season and he has that tag on him it would cost them their first unprotected pick and the pool for that pick. IE 2nd round cash pool.

So in view of that it would be far better to get Ben for a 30ish rated player in the system and then be able to resign him as a F/A next year. VS loose the cash pool to sign him by doing nothing. Now yes they could also do nothing and let him get traded this year and then shoot after him for next year. But that is not helping this year.

In the system there are no legit LF options major league ready. The only options have been ass pull moves at best. Like pushing this guy to LF who has not played there and is not getting time in there to even make the suggestion remotely viable. To this point the only guy that has been getting time in LF has been Alcantara but that is just one of the many spots that he has played in Iowa. He has been rotating at 2B, 3B and LF all season down there.

I think they've purposefully left LF open pending a decision on Schwarber. Publicly they are saying that all their plans lead to him being a catcher but the eye test belies that and if he does come up this fall, plays LF and hits the cover off the ball the decision is going to come to a head really fast. Zobrist would be a nice stopgap, allow Schwarber to finish out the minor league season at C and then come up for a cup of coffee when rosters expand but I think Zobrist would be too expensive unless you're talking as part of a larger deal.

 

[CSF77]

Bryant to LF. Baez to IF seems like most likely internal option. That works for me (though Bryant has been good at 3rd)

The whole point is they would have to get him out there to see if he could handle it.

Ok let's be real for a second here. They are in season and are trying to win games. Plugging you starting 3B into a position he has not played then bumping Baez to cover 3B? Again another position said player has not played. Or Russell same thing.

If they were planning a move like that then they would be having Baez out in LF right now and then they could realign it in the offseason.

So that is why all of these proposed moves are ass pulls. There is no fact backing them.

 

[CSF77]

Bryant to LF. Baez to IF seems like most likely internal option. That works for me (though Bryant has been good at 3rd)

I think they've purposefully left LF open pending a decision on Schwarber. Publicly they are saying that all their plans lead to him being a catcher but the eye test belies that and if he does come up this fall, plays LF and hits the cover off the ball the decision is going to come to a head really fast. Zobrist would be a nice stopgap, allow Schwarber to finish out the minor league season at C and then come up for a cup of coffee when rosters expand but I think Zobrist would be too expensive unless you're talking as part of a larger deal.

You can't depend on a AA player to just come up and then take over a position on a major league roster.

Could he do it? I think so but that said, if your main goal is the play offs you do not roll the dice like that.

Not to mention Schwarber has been a catcher this year. He has not been a OF. So again the facts lead us to believe that the Cubs view him as a catcher. It is the media and fans generating the quick promotion to LF to rid the team of Cog.

Again another ass pull theory.