Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[JP Hochbaum]

If he has a great 1 and 2 pitch, his change just has to be average to be effective. That shouldn't be hard to accomplish.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If he has a great 1 and 2 pitch, his change just has to be average to be effective. That shouldn't be hard to accomplish.

I mean that's it right? If a guy throws that kind of heat with sneaky movement and has a solid curve then the change just has to be passable to keep hitters honest. The issue to me here isn't the third pitch, as by all accounts his changeup has already improved, it's command and how he can improve on that as he advances through the system.

 

[CSF77]

The reports on his change up are that it's fringy at the moment but most think it will improve as he progresses and it's not a case where he wont have it. I've also read some think it doesn't even need to be particularly good with that difference in speed in between his fastball and his curve. He just needs one to be able to show people a third pitch.

Fastball movement is going to be the key to his success. Having the ability to pitch at 98 helps but we saw that with Cashner and Cash excelled when he was moving the ball around in the low 90's. A change for the most part is key as a 2nd offering vs LH hitters while the slider is used against RH hitters. Still locating his fastball with late movement will still be his bread and butter and learning to give up a few MPH to get more action on his fastball should be his goal as he matures.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Fastball movement is going to be the key to his success. Having the ability to pitch at 98 helps but we saw that with Cashner and Cash excelled when he was moving the ball around in the low 90's. A change for the most part is key as a 2nd offering vs LH hitters while the slider is used against RH hitters. Still locating his fastball with late movement will still be his bread and butter and learning to give up a few MPH to get more action on his fastball should be his goal as he matures.

The movement on his fastball before he's pitched an inning of A ball is much of what has impressed scouts.

 

[CSF77]

The movement on his fastball before he's pitched an inning of A ball is much of what has impressed scouts.

Fastballs tend to straiten out the harder the pitch. 98 with late movement puts him into the top 10. 98 strait doesn't.

 

[beckdawg]

Couple of thoughts

1) Zobrist's deal ends in 2019. Happ and Torress have a 2018 ETA. Russell is almost assuredly your SS for the next 6 years unless he just doesn't hit.
2) Fowler is probably on 1 year deal. Almora's timeline works well with that. However, you also have EJ Martinez and DJ Wilson who's been drawing positive reviews from the stuff I've read.
3) Bryant is almost assuredly your 3B for the next 6 years. You have Candelario and Christian Villanueva as top 30 prospects presumably as only 3B men.
4) the corner OF situation. You have Soler's name being throwing around in trades. You have Schwarber as a part time LF. You have Eloy Jiminez likely in A ball. You have McKinney and Zagunis as top 30 prospects who are likely corner OFs. Oh and ya know Jason Heyward.

That's a lot of overlap at positions. Particularly 3B and corner OF seem like slots you're basically going to need to address since Candelario and Villanueva are basically close to MLB ready as are McKinney and Zagunis. I think Candelario and Zagunis probably are both in AA to start this year but wouldn't be surprised to see both in AAA before the end of the season.

Where I'm going with all this is trades. I don't want to read too much into AFL/ST stats but Jeimer Candelario has killed it. He hit .329/.371/.610 with 5 HR in 89 PAs in the AFL. He hit .350/.381/.675 with 3 HRs in roughly 45 PAs in ST. I think a lot of the prospect stuff came out before that but even then he appeared to be like top 125 or top 150 for people. Maybe that doesn't change opinions much but I sort of think he'd likely be a top 100 prospect if people ranked today. Villanueva is probably a cheap starter for a team out of it or bench player. In similar circumstances, McKinney was a top 100 guy on most places and Zagunis probably is a 4th OF.

The overlap sort of becomes an obvious talking point when you have this many good players. Up to this point the cubs haven't made the trade everyone has wanted for the past 2-3 years. Biggest thing we got was the arguably disappointing(for some) Castro trade. So clearly they don't have to make a move but I would also contend circumstances are different now. SS and 3B are almost assuredly filled for the next 6 years. Rizzo has what appear to be reasonable options for 2020/21 meaning 1B is also filled for 6 years. Heyward may opt out but you've got him 3 years for sure and maybe more. So, as far as what you have to work with going forward it's CF(Fowler's probably on a 1 year deal), LF, 2B(though Zobrist is likely your starter for 2-3 years) and C.

What's curious to me is the obvious talking point has been a single trade for 1 TOR starter. But if you look at the pool of players who are fighting for the limited starting jobs I sort of think there's 2 trades here. Baez and Soler have already been thrown around. I don't really see any fit for Candelario. McKinney might work as a decent 4th OF if they deal Soler but if not he's a top 100 player. Villanueva is probably decent back up for Bryant in AAA. Regardless, that to me is the interesting aspect because for the foreseeable future what else would you buy? Or, would you make a godfather offer for some untouchable pitcher? And keep in mind, I've not even mentioned a single cubs pitching prospect here.

I'm rambling at this point... I should stop but you get the idea.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Villanueva is out until August after ankle surgery so he's not a trade option and if Bryant were to get hurt I'd assume Baez would play there. McKinney is a Hell of a player but scouts are split as to whether he can play CF (the Cubs don't think he can) but if they find a team that thinks so he could be a good chip in a trade. Dude can flat out hit but lacks power. I absolutely think they have the pieces to make som trades though and Candelerio looks to be the most valuable outside of Conteras who probably won't be moved. The thing about some of the lower level guys is they just haven't built enough value yet. Everyone wants Gleyber Torres, fo example, but he's not close enough to MLB to fetch what the Cubs would want for him.

 

[Diehardfan]

Some people assume the Cubs starters as they stand now, are not good enough. Maybe they aren't, but maybe...they are. Before I start busting up my system to bring in experienced arms, I'm waiting until the time that it's a foregone conclusion that I need an upgrade.

 

[beckdawg]

Some people assume the Cubs starters as they stand now, are not good enough. Maybe they aren't, but maybe...they are. Before I start busting up my system to bring in experienced arms, I'm waiting until the time that it's a foregone conclusion that I need an upgrade.

Personally I think they are better than most people probably. But if you're going to upgrade any place sure seems that's the best option as they lack young pitching near the majors. Only other place you'd probably look to improve is maybe a young reliever but as many lotto ticket arms as they have I'm not sure you want to do that plus bull pen arms are so hit or miss year to year.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Can anyone tell me about Yasiel Balaguert?

 

[beckdawg]

Villanueva is out until August after ankle surgery so he's not a trade option and if Bryant were to get hurt I'd assume Baez would play there. McKinney is a Hell of a player but scouts are split as to whether he can play CF (the Cubs don't think he can) but if they find a team that thinks so he could be a good chip in a trade. Dude can flat out hit but lacks power. I absolutely think they have the pieces to make som trades though and Candelerio looks to be the most valuable outside of Conteras who probably won't be moved. The thing about some of the lower level guys is they just haven't built enough value yet. Everyone wants Gleyber Torres, fo example, but he's not close enough to MLB to fetch what the Cubs would want for him.

With regard to Villanueva, I doubt he'd really offer much to a trade other than as a throw in final piece anyways. I really feel he's probably just going to end up being org depth the cubs keep until he can elect for FA. As for Torres, I wouldn't be so sure. I mean if you're talking literally today maybe but keep in mind the a key piece in the david price trade was Willy Adames and he only had 114 PAs in A ball. Torres had a full year and hit better depending on what you look for(Adames was .278/.377/.433 with 13.2%/26.3% bb/k rates vs .293/.353/.386 8.4%/21.0%). If he did that at 18 in A ball then I'm not entirely sure A+ will challenge him that much more. He could potentially be in AA by midseason if things break right and obviously that's when the first trade talks would happen if at all.

McKinney.... love the bat just wish he fit better positionally. I do think you could potentially keep him around as a part time player with Schwarber in LF if they dealt Soler at some point. Problem is they just have so many OF right now.

 

[beckdawg]

Can anyone tell me about Yasiel Balaguert?

Little i dug up on him suggest he is cuban. He's not really on my radar so I doubt he's much of a prospect. I did find this from when he was signed

Balaguert, 19 in January, is said to have "modest tools" and a "long, uppercut swing from the right side and an aggressive, pull-oriented approach that leaves him susceptible to secondary stuff." Although he's played center, it's likely that he'll be relegated to left field down the line. The Marlins had interest in signing him earlier this offseason.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Can anyone tell me about Yasiel Balaguert?

Last I heard he hadn't developed as they had hoped and is probably just a guy at this point. That was last year though so maybe something has changed.

 

[CSF77]

Couple of thoughts

1) Zobrist's deal ends in 2019. Happ and Torress have a 2018 ETA. Russell is almost assuredly your SS for the next 6 years unless he just doesn't hit.
2) Fowler is probably on 1 year deal. Almora's timeline works well with that. However, you also have EJ Martinez and DJ Wilson who's been drawing positive reviews from the stuff I've read.
3) Bryant is almost assuredly your 3B for the next 6 years. You have Candelario and Christian Villanueva as top 30 prospects presumably as only 3B men.
4) the corner OF situation. You have Soler's name being throwing around in trades. You have Schwarber as a part time LF. You have Eloy Jiminez likely in A ball. You have McKinney and Zagunis as top 30 prospects who are likely corner OFs. Oh and ya know Jason Heyward.

That's a lot of overlap at positions. Particularly 3B and corner OF seem like slots you're basically going to need to address since Candelario and Villanueva are basically close to MLB ready as are McKinney and Zagunis. I think Candelario and Zagunis probably are both in AA to start this year but wouldn't be surprised to see both in AAA before the end of the season.

Where I'm going with all this is trades. I don't want to read too much into AFL/ST stats but Jeimer Candelario has killed it. He hit .329/.371/.610 with 5 HR in 89 PAs in the AFL. He hit .350/.381/.675 with 3 HRs in roughly 45 PAs in ST. I think a lot of the prospect stuff came out before that but even then he appeared to be like top 125 or top 150 for people. Maybe that doesn't change opinions much but I sort of think he'd likely be a top 100 prospect if people ranked today. Villanueva is probably a cheap starter for a team out of it or bench player. In similar circumstances, McKinney was a top 100 guy on most places and Zagunis probably is a 4th OF.

The overlap sort of becomes an obvious talking point when you have this many good players. Up to this point the cubs haven't made the trade everyone has wanted for the past 2-3 years. Biggest thing we got was the arguably disappointing(for some) Castro trade. So clearly they don't have to make a move but I would also contend circumstances are different now. SS and 3B are almost assuredly filled for the next 6 years. Rizzo has what appear to be reasonable options for 2020/21 meaning 1B is also filled for 6 years. Heyward may opt out but you've got him 3 years for sure and maybe more. So, as far as what you have to work with going forward it's CF(Fowler's probably on a 1 year deal), LF, 2B(though Zobrist is likely your starter for 2-3 years) and C.

What's curious to me is the obvious talking point has been a single trade for 1 TOR starter. But if you look at the pool of players who are fighting for the limited starting jobs I sort of think there's 2 trades here. Baez and Soler have already been thrown around. I don't really see any fit for Candelario. McKinney might work as a decent 4th OF if they deal Soler but if not he's a top 100 player. Villanueva is probably decent back up for Bryant in AAA. Regardless, that to me is the interesting aspect because for the foreseeable future what else would you buy? Or, would you make a godfather offer for some untouchable pitcher? And keep in mind, I've not even mentioned a single cubs pitching prospect here.

I'm rambling at this point... I should stop but you get the idea.

I see them waiting to see if Schwarber can take over as the starting catcher next year with Montero freed up to be traded. His value went up with the Cubs and there are plenty of teams out there that will want his skill set.

So I see that as the preferred route vs trading Soler.

On 3B IDK. They love Candi's bat but I don't see a role for him. Most likely he becomes trade fodder if he holds value this year.

End of the day I don't see them trading Soler out unless Schwarber fails as a catcher then their hand becomes forced.

 

[CSF77]

Personally I think they are better than most people probably. But if you're going to upgrade any place sure seems that's the best option as they lack young pitching near the majors. Only other place you'd probably look to improve is maybe a young reliever but as many lotto ticket arms as they have I'm not sure you want to do that plus bull pen arms are so hit or miss year to year.

I agree to a point. As a 1-3 they are pretty set up. The issue is in a 7 game you end up starting Lackey on the middle game of it and run either Hendricks or Hammel out for the 2nd game of the series. So in reality this comes down to if those 2 don't disappear as they did last year

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I see them waiting to see if Schwarber can take over as the starting catcher next year with Montero freed up to be traded. His value went up with the Cubs and there are plenty of teams out there that will want his skill set.

So I see that as the preferred route vs trading Soler.

On 3B IDK. They love Candi's bat but I don't see a role for him. Most likely he becomes trade fodder if he holds value this year.

End of the day I don't see them trading Soler out unless Schwarber fails as a catcher then their hand becomes forced.

I don't think they're thinking of Schwarber as a full time starter anymore but, depending on what both men show this year, he could pick up more starts there in a platoon with Willson Contreras.

 

[CSF77]

I don't think they're thinking of Schwarber as a full time starter anymore but, depending on what both men show this year, he could pick up more starts there in a platoon with Willson Contreras.

Too early on Conteras. Let him get a full year of AAA in. I agree he is more of a catcher but I'm not betting against Swarbers motor.

 

[beckdawg]

Tyler Kolek underwent Tommy John surgery today. Between what happened to the stros and Aiken and this it really makes you see the value in the cubs strategy. And that's obviously before you consider Schwarber is in the majors right now.

 

[brett05]

Tyler Kolek underwent Tommy John surgery today. Between what happened to the stros and Aiken and this it really makes you see the value in the cubs strategy. And that's obviously before you consider Schwarber is in the majors right now.

You never know if the pitchers would have had the same issues in the Cubs minor league system, but yes it looks good.

 

[CSF77]

You never know if the pitchers would have had the same issues in the Cubs minor league system, but yes it looks good.

I'm a believer that it is better to spend on F/A for proven pitchers. Then draft for pitching depth. Too much risk involved to bet the future on lower odds.

Which makes me wonder why they invested into Heyward so heavy. Only reason I can see is they did not believe in Soler's RF D.

Especially if Szczur just morphed into another Pedroida with out a spot. Doubtful but never know if he finally figured it out or not.