Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[TC in Mississippi]

I'm a believer that it is better to spend on F/A for proven pitchers. Then draft for pitching depth. Too much risk involved to bet the future on lower odds.

Which makes me wonder why they invested into Heyward so heavy. Only reason I can see is they did not believe in Soler's RF D.

Especially if Szczur just morphed into another Pedroida with out a spot. Doubtful but never know if he finally figured it out or not.

I think Heyward just fit this team in just about every way you can think of. Of course they couldn't have possibly been sure they would land him. In the end I think you do need to develop some pitchers considering the $40 million AAV starter is probably less than 5 years away, but investing in position players who don't have that kind of injury risk was extremely smart.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm a believer that it is better to spend on F/A for proven pitchers. Then draft for pitching depth. Too much risk involved to bet the future on lower odds.

Which makes me wonder why they invested into Heyward so heavy. Only reason I can see is they did not believe in Soler's RF D.

Especially if Szczur just morphed into another Pedroida with out a spot. Doubtful but never know if he finally figured it out or not.

Honestly, I think i'd rather target younger starters via trade rather than FA.

 

[brett05]

Honestly, I think i'd rather target younger starters via trade rather than FA.

I think the issue you have there is the cost of a young starter being very high especially after this past off season.

 

[beckdawg]

I think the issue you have there is the cost of a young starter being very high especially after this past off season.

Define "very high." Look at it this way, let's say you basically end up parting with what amounts to 2 top 15 picks for the TOR you want. You have 0 of the development and less if any of the injury risk. Sure in theory you're paying a premium but you also are taking substantially less risk and there's relatively few times I'd take higher risk vs more certainty.

 

[brett05]

Define "very high." Look at it this way, let's say you basically end up parting with what amounts to 2 top 15 picks for the TOR you want. You have 0 of the development and less if any of the injury risk. Sure in theory you're paying a premium but you also are taking substantially less risk and there's relatively few times I'd take higher risk vs more certainty.

Define very high: Core pieces are most likely involved. Cubs top minor league guys aren't of the same value that those same slots held just a couple of years back. But since then the price of young aces has gotten extremely high (See Shelby Miller). Top closers are expensive too (Kimbrel). Teams are not too likely to trade those away for less pricing since as you have said, to get solid ones is a rarity. Sluggers very well are at a shortage but pitching just keeps getting more and more expensive.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think the issue you have there is the cost of a young starter being very high especially after this past off season.

It's going to be interesting to see how that plays out in the next year or so. On one hand starting pitching is more valuable than ever and for some teams cost control is paramount as they can't afford $30 plus mil pitchers. On the other hand prospects have never been more valuable either. If you listen to what GM's around the league are saying you wonder if you'll ever see a Dansby Swanson for Shelby Miller deal again, but I don't know if that's for certain. Teams are going to try to emulate the Royals and Yankees by building great bullpens to undermine starting pitching value but I'm not sold on that either. It's going to be fascinating.

 

[beckdawg]

Define very high: Core pieces are most likely involved. Cubs top minor league guys aren't of the same value that those same slots held just a couple of years back. But since then the price of young aces has gotten extremely high (See Shelby Miller). Top closers are expensive too (Kimbrel). Teams are not too likely to trade those away for less pricing since as you have said, to get solid ones is a rarity. Sluggers very well are at a shortage but pitching just keeps getting more and more expensive.

I'm not going to go 15 rounds on this but I don't particularly think Miller is a good example of the cost because there's a reason no other major pitcher was traded this offseason. Ultimately the teams trading away to rebuild are often in a tougher position than teams trying to win because years between arbitration and FA vastly change a pitchers value and you obviously can't hold on to said player forever.

 

[brett05]

I'm not going to go 15 rounds on this but I don't particularly think Miller is a good example of the cost because there's a reason no other major pitcher was traded this offseason. Ultimately the teams trading away to rebuild are often in a tougher position than teams trying to win because years between arbitration and FA vastly change a pitchers value and you obviously can't hold on to said player forever.

One of the big reasons is not a lot of teams had the players needed to pull of the deal IMO

 

[beckdawg]

One of the big reasons is not a lot of teams had the players needed to pull of the deal IMO

I'd argue it was more the teams that wanted pitching weren't going to pay those prices but either way that sort of is the point.

 

[CSF77]

Nothing wrong with the F/A market. They needed a #3 and paid for it. The real issue comes with Arrieta's extension. They will have to push up payroll to make that happen.

My main issue with Jason is if they did nothing they still had Soler in RF and Schwarber in LF. They have Almora and Conteras in AAA. Add to it McKenny is close. The OF was not an issue where it justified a 200 mil spending.

Now if what they are planning is to use Soler or Schwarber as trade leverage I can see that.

But all said and done they could have signed a starter that could have potentially replaced Arrieta if they can't come to terms. They had 2 guys that filled that bill and with the cash spent to sign Heyward, Zorbrist and Lackey they could have signed Price or Grenkie and signed A-Jax for CF and left Baez at 2B.

Not complaining as this team is wrecking shop but looking at it long term I would rather them spend on securing the top long term. Now if the lock up Jake it becomes a mute point there.

On a trade Beck: they are getting pricy. If a team would take depth like Torres and McKenny centering the deal with Edwards it would be dumb to turn down. But the pitcher would have to be TOR now.

 

[beckdawg]

Obviously it's still early but Almora is off to a hot start. He's hitting .333/.417/.444 but more importantly he's got 2 walks in 12 PAs and 0 K's. Definitely good to see him performing well in AAA after closing last season so well.

 

[Omeletpants]

Couple of thoughts

1) Zobrist's deal ends in 2019. Happ and Torress have a 2018 ETA. Russell is almost assuredly your SS for the next 6 years unless he just doesn't hit.
2) Fowler is probably on 1 year deal. Almora's timeline works well with that. However, you also have EJ Martinez and DJ Wilson who's been drawing positive reviews from the stuff I've read.
3) Bryant is almost assuredly your 3B for the next 6 years. You have Candelario and Christian Villanueva as top 30 prospects presumably as only 3B men.
4) the corner OF situation. You have Soler's name being throwing around in trades. You have Schwarber as a part time LF. You have Eloy Jiminez likely in A ball. You have McKinney and Zagunis as top 30 prospects who are likely corner OFs. Oh and ya know Jason Heyward.

That's a lot of overlap at positions. Particularly 3B and corner OF seem like slots you're basically going to need to address since Candelario and Villanueva are basically close to MLB ready as are McKinney and Zagunis. I think Candelario and Zagunis probably are both in AA to start this year but wouldn't be surprised to see both in AAA before the end of the season.

Where I'm going with all this is trades. I don't want to read too much into AFL/ST stats but Jeimer Candelario has killed it. He hit .329/.371/.610 with 5 HR in 89 PAs in the AFL. He hit .350/.381/.675 with 3 HRs in roughly 45 PAs in ST. I think a lot of the prospect stuff came out before that but even then he appeared to be like top 125 or top 150 for people. Maybe that doesn't change opinions much but I sort of think he'd likely be a top 100 prospect if people ranked today. Villanueva is probably a cheap starter for a team out of it or bench player. In similar circumstances, McKinney was a top 100 guy on most places and Zagunis probably is a 4th OF.

The overlap sort of becomes an obvious talking point when you have this many good players. Up to this point the cubs haven't made the trade everyone has wanted for the past 2-3 years. Biggest thing we got was the arguably disappointing(for some) Castro trade. So clearly they don't have to make a move but I would also contend circumstances are different now. SS and 3B are almost assuredly filled for the next 6 years. Rizzo has what appear to be reasonable options for 2020/21 meaning 1B is also filled for 6 years. Heyward may opt out but you've got him 3 years for sure and maybe more. So, as far as what you have to work with going forward it's CF(Fowler's probably on a 1 year deal), LF, 2B(though Zobrist is likely your starter for 2-3 years) and C.

What's curious to me is the obvious talking point has been a single trade for 1 TOR starter. But if you look at the pool of players who are fighting for the limited starting jobs I sort of think there's 2 trades here. Baez and Soler have already been thrown around. I don't really see any fit for Candelario. McKinney might work as a decent 4th OF if they deal Soler but if not he's a top 100 player. Villanueva is probably decent back up for Bryant in AAA. Regardless, that to me is the interesting aspect because for the foreseeable future what else would you buy? Or, would you make a godfather offer for some untouchable pitcher? And keep in mind, I've not even mentioned a single cubs pitching prospect here.

I'm rambling at this point... I should stop but you get the idea.

You are the Windy City of the Cubs forum. Football is a different story

 

[beckdawg]

You are the Windy City of the Cubs forum. Football is a different story

I have 0 idea what that means but thanks?

 

[DanTown]

Nothing wrong with the F/A market. They needed a #3 and paid for it. The real issue comes with Arrieta's extension. They will have to push up payroll to make that happen.

My main issue with Jason is if they did nothing they still had Soler in RF and Schwarber in LF. They have Almora and Conteras in AAA. Add to it McKenny is close. The OF was not an issue where it justified a 200 mil spending.

Now if what they are planning is to use Soler or Schwarber as trade leverage I can see that.

But all said and done they could have signed a starter that could have potentially replaced Arrieta if they can't come to terms. They had 2 guys that filled that bill and with the cash spent to sign Heyward, Zorbrist and Lackey they could have signed Price or Grenkie and signed A-Jax for CF and left Baez at 2B.

Not complaining as this team is wrecking shop but looking at it long term I would rather them spend on securing the top long term. Now if the lock up Jake it becomes a mute point there.

On a trade Beck: they are getting pricy. If a team would take depth like Torres and McKenny centering the deal with Edwards it would be dumb to turn down. But the pitcher would have to be TOR now.

Note: assume this was pre-injury thinking of course

If Soler and Schwarber are your starting COF, you're literally sacrificing fielding and contact to have two high variance hitters in a lineup. That maybe works for a regular season approach where they get enough PA but now you have to have a better defensive CF and sacrifice another bat to just have an average defensive outfield and you have poor contact rates, you don't steal bases, etc. You're essentially waiting for HR with that group. By signing Heyward, you get yourself an elite defensive OF capable of playing two positions who can also hit at the top of a balanced lineup and not have high SO numbers. They brought back Fowler partly because they had Heyward so they could afford a good bat but not a great defensive CF; I'm not sure Fowler is here at any price if you have Soler and Schwarber projected as 100 start OF.

To me, Schwarber had three outcomes pre-injury:
1. Learn to C and be a dynamic hitter for the position
2. Learn to play a decent LF and be a very good hitter for the position
3. Learn neither and be trade bait for a AL team who needs a bat

Soler nor Baez has that kind of hit tool to fall back on like Kyle does. I think Kyle's floor pre-injury was a .260/.340/.500 kind of hitter with great power obviously. That kind of power is so appealing to teams, especially if it's basically signed for 5/30 with Kyle's pre-arb years. If the Cubs attack a couple of other 4A prospects to a deal like that and one more high value prospect, you're talking a lot of trade value to teams.

The price of pitching was so high that the Cubs felt waiting was a good idea. The Schwarber injury will force their hand a little but probably not too terribly. Tyson Ross has already hit the DL and struggled in start one; you'd assume his trade price is drastically lower now than it was three months ago.

 

[chibears55]

Was thinking about this today...

Its a long shot cause it depends on how he does and if they want to fast track him to majors but jamier Candelario might be an option later in the year.

It also depends on if Soler able to lock down LF or not, or if he used as trade bait for a SP, but they will have an option if needed to bring Candelario up and play Bryant in LF

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[beckdawg]

Was thinking about this today...

Its a long shot cause it depends on how he does and if they want to fast track him to majors but jamier Candelario might be an option later in the year.

It also depends on if Soler able to lock down LF or not, or if he used as trade bait for a SP, but they will have an option if needed to bring Candelario up and play Bryant in LF

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I've heard others suggest the idea. Think it's much more likely you'll see Baez and or Soler play more. The thing is Candelario is a tougher fit after this year. You'd essentially have to move both Baez and Soler in trades and then use him similarly to how they plan to use Baez. That is to say play him some what often and shift around Bryant and presumably Schwarber.

 

[SilenceS]

Maddon came out and said Baez will take 20-25 at bats in the minors before he comes up. So, we are looking weekend or early next week for him.

 

[chibears55]

I've heard others suggest the idea. Think it's much more likely you'll see Baez and or Soler play more. The thing is Candelario is a tougher fit after this year. You'd essentially have to move both Baez and Soler in trades and then use him similarly to how they plan to use Baez. That is to say play him some what often and shift around Bryant and presumably Schwarber.

I was thinking if they do consider bringing him up that it would be closer to July and Soler would probably be moved for a pitcher..

If not ..

They probably will have to consider moving a couple guys in off season with a couple younger talent ready to go.

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[beckdawg]

Alcantara isn't having an amazing start to the season yet but he looks to be way more solid than he was last year. Thru 35 PAs thus far he's got a .250/.314/.406 triple slash and 8.6%/22.9% bb/k rates. The K rate is roughly identical to what he did in 2014 in AAA and his bb rate is up about 2%. His power numbers aren't quite there yet but that's kind of to be expected in the colder months and his BABIP is about 30-40 points off where I'd imagine he'd normally be(.330-.340 range is where he's been at lower levels).

The downside here is nothing thus far is really screaming all-star that I thought he may eventually become at one point. The upside is he seems like he's corrected some of the issues he had last season. Keep in mind while the sample size is low he also hit .333/.419/.370 with something like a 12.9%/16.1% bb/k rate. I'd wager AAA and spring training are roughly similar in competition levels so that's close to 70 PAs. Generally you'd like 100 or so but I'm taking it as a good sign because I'm biased toward him.

I haven't seen too much talk of what happened to him last year probably because there were simply better stories than a guy who may not even end up being a starter with the cubs. But I do wonder if he essentially had a similar struggle to the way Castro slumped when they tried to make him more selective taking pitches. I mean in his 2015 MLB stint he had a 15.6%/34.4% bb/k rate which would seem to suggest he wasn't identifying his pitch to hit and more or less just took as many pitches as he could. That carried over some to his AAA stint last year where he had a 7.0%/25.1% bb/k rate. So, seeing that K rate come down is always pleasant news. And while he's thus far not been "OMG WOW PROMOTE HIM NOW!" his 106 wRC+ is very respectable as is his .334 wOBA.

I don't know. As I've said I'm completely biased toward him but if this continues I really feel like he can be a very useful weapon in the playoffs. He's one of the few guys the cubs have who can steal 30 bases in a full season and the fact that he can switch hit and play multiple position would be very very nice to pair with Baez off the bench or to replace Baez if you move Baez into the starting line up.

Also for what it's worth, Almora is killing it in AAA thus far. .286/.393/.333 over 29 PAs and a 17.2%/13.8% bb/k rate. I might have been wrong about him. I figured he'd at least need most of this season to get thru AAA but at that pace he too might be ready for the majors by mid season.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Contreras started hot in AAA. .429 currently. Small sample size at 35 AB, but very promising.