Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[beckdawg]

Not sure how much hype to put behind Trevor Clifton right now. He threw 7 no hit innings the other day. On the season, his k/9 is 9.64 and his bb/9 is 3.43. For a starter that's a pretty elite K/9. His ERA/FIP is 3.15/3.24. To put that in context, Chris Archer at 21 also in A+(daytona though) had 10.20 k/9 and 3.24 bb/9 with a 2.86/3.08 ERA/FIP. Archer might be a some what fair comp. because he too wasn't really a big star early on. He was supposed to be the secondary piece in the Garza trade.

Think for now I'm going to settle on him having a chance to be a decent #3 but he still needs to refine his walk rate a bit.

 

[CSF77]

Not sure how much hype to put behind Trevor Clifton right now. He threw 7 no hit innings the other day. On the season, his k/9 is 9.64 and his bb/9 is 3.43. For a starter that's a pretty elite K/9. His ERA/FIP is 3.15/3.24. To put that in context, Chris Archer at 21 also in A+(daytona though) had 10.20 k/9 and 3.24 bb/9 with a 2.86/3.08 ERA/FIP. Archer might be a some what fair comp. because he too wasn't really a big star early on. He was supposed to be the secondary piece in the Garza trade.

Think for now I'm going to settle on him having a chance to be a decent #3 but he still needs to refine his walk rate a bit.

It was either him or McNutt. Both were the top pitching prospects. Ray's chose right.


It is still early on him. He jumped up but after seeing what Contreras did by being unranked and jumping up that fast it is not a bad thing.

 

[beckdawg]

De La Cruz pitched again in South Bend last night...

5 IP, 1 R, 3 H, 1 BB, 9 K. He threw 69 pitches, 45 for strikes.

Dude has a crazy k/9 rate and a great bb/9. In 2016 he's at 13.7/2.1 over 21.0 IP. Overall he's at 9.0/2.3. I'm like 95% sure he's a top 75 prospect when people do rerankings. To put his k/bb rate in perspective here's some decent pitchers and their best overall rate anywhere

Bumganer - 10.42/1.33 A ball though over a large sample
Kershaw - 13.14/1.22 R over 37.0 IP or 12.39/4.62 over 97.1
Jose Fernandez - 11.28/2.05 79 innings in A ball
Strausburg - 11.05/2.45 22.0 IP in AA
Syndergaard - 11.50/2.00 54 IP in AA

Thats not to say De La Cruz is a lock to be a front of the rotation starter or even that he'll continue at such a killer rate at higher levels. But, at nearly 14 k's per 9 this year that's a pretty ridiculous rate that even some of the top k/9 guys didn't reach at any point in the minors. And often times when guys do K at that high of a rate they can't control it. De La Cruz has.

 

[CSF77]

De La Cruz pitched again in South Bend last night...

5 IP, 1 R, 3 H, 1 BB, 9 K. He threw 69 pitches, 45 for strikes.

Dude has a crazy k/9 rate and a great bb/9. In 2016 he's at 13.7/2.1 over 21.0 IP. Overall he's at 9.0/2.3. I'm like 95% sure he's a top 75 prospect when people do rerankings. To put his k/bb rate in perspective here's some decent pitchers and their best overall rate anywhere

Bumganer - 10.42/1.33 A ball though over a large sample
Kershaw - 13.14/1.22 R over 37.0 IP or 12.39/4.62 over 97.1
Jose Fernandez - 11.28/2.05 79 innings in A ball
Strausburg - 11.05/2.45 22.0 IP in AA
Syndergaard - 11.50/2.00 54 IP in AA

Thats not to say De La Cruz is a lock to be a front of the rotation starter or even that he'll continue at such a killer rate at higher levels. But, at nearly 14 k's per 9 this year that's a pretty ridiculous rate that even some of the top k/9 guys didn't reach at any point in the minors. And often times when guys do K at that high of a rate they can't control it. De La Cruz has.

He needs 100 IP to see where he is at. Add to it his stuff might just be too advanced for the hitting he is facing. At higher levels things tend to plane out more and his numbers will be more telling.

I'm more excited by Ceace. His power curve is being compared to Doc Gooden's. That is pretty high acclaims

 

[beckdawg]

He needs 100 IP to see where he is at. Add to it his stuff might just be too advanced for the hitting he is facing. At higher levels things tend to plane out more and his numbers will be more telling.

I'm more excited by Ceace. His power curve is being compared to Doc Gooden's. That is pretty high acclaims

He's thrown more than 100 innings. He's thrown 180.0 in fact as a pro. As for him being too advanced, he's 21. The best college pitcher in the past draft was A.J. Puk who's a month older than him. He's thrown 12.1 in A-. Puk is ranked 76 right now on the mlb.com top 100. His k/9 and bb/9 are 8.76/2.92. So, it's not like he's a 24 year old dominating guys well younger than him. He's age appropriate for the league he's in. If his stuff is too advanced for those hitters, that just means he's likely a very good prospect.

Additionally, the impressive part is the fact De La Cruz is still a raw player. He's only been pitching for 3 years and at 6'4 he has room to add a lot of muscle. So, the fact that he's been able to put up gaudy strike out numbers while being raw and having projection left in his frame is the entire reason I think he'll be a top 75 prospect. The idea being if he's doing this now, what will he do when he's more comfortable pitching?

 

[CSF77]

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50
De La Cruz originally tried out for teams as a 6-foot-4 shortstop in the Dominican Republic before signing with the Cubs as a pitcher for $85,000 in October 2012. He spent his first two pro seasons in the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League before making a huge leap forward in 2015, performing so well in extended spring training that he skipped a level to the Short Season Northwest League. He got off to a late start in 2016 after coming down with a sore elbow during Spring Training.

The most physical pitcher in Chicago's system, De La Cruz is bigger than his listed 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds and still has projection remaining. His present stuff already is enticing, starting with a 92-95 mph fastball that can reach 97 and plays up because of its movement, angle and plane. His curveball lacks consistency but features power and shows signs of becoming a plus offering.

De La Cruz's changeup is less refined but he exhibits some feel for the pitch. He has good athleticism and body control for a big pitcher, allowing him to repeat his delivery and pound the strike zone.

 

[CSF77]

Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50
As one of the best high school power arms in the 2014 Draft, Cease projected as a possible first-rounder before he hurt his elbow that March. The injury ultimately required Tommy John surgery, though that didn't dissuade the Cubs from paying him $1.5 million in the sixth round. That gamble could pay off big, as he has more upside than any pitcher in Chicago's farm system.

Cease reached 97 mph with his fastball before he got hurt and hit 100 shortly after he returned to the mound last summer. He sits in the mid-90s with his heater, which also features life that makes it even tougher to barrel. He has turned what was a three-quarters breaking ball into a true power curveball that one club official likened to Dwight Gooden's.

Like most young pitchers with rocket arms, Cease needs to refine his changeup and use it more. Though he's not very physical, he's able to generate premium stuff with athleticism and arm speed rather than excessive effort in his delivery. The Cubs have helped him clean up his mechanics some and he should be able to repeat them efficiently enough to fill the strike zone.

 

[CSF77]

De La Cruz really sounds like Zambrano

 

[Boobaby1]

De La Cruz really sounds like Zambrano

Is that a bad thing considering he was the Cubs ACE for a good while?

 

[SilenceS]

Is that a bad thing considering he was the Cubs ACE for a good while?

Zambrano was a hell of a pitcher that got derailed for lack of conditioning and attitude. He cramped constantly because he refuse to drink while he pitched.

 

[CSF77]

Is that a bad thing considering he was the Cubs ACE for a good while?

He got that good learning from Maddux. Z was using his fastball more effective which vaulted his value.

I'm more impressed with Cease. His talent is higher and may have stuff like Prior. Just need to let his body develop vs rush him like Prior got rushed

 

[beckdawg]

He got that good learning from Maddux. Z was using his fastball more effective which vaulted his value.

I'm more impressed with Cease. His talent is higher and may have stuff like Prior. Just need to let his body develop vs rush him like Prior got rushed

Keep in mind that blurb was written prior to the season when De La Cruz was just starting to get noticed. As for Cease having better stuff, he might. His fastball is obviously good and his curve shows a lot of promise. From what I've read his change up jus isn't much yet. It may not need to be with the first two pitches. But, Cease has also had TJS already and he's on the smaller side. At 6'2/190 he's not Carl Edwards(6-3/170) but he's not far off. You mention having Prior's stuff... Prior was 6-5/230. De La Cruz is 6'4/200.

If you look through the top pitchers in the league here's the guys who are top 30 fWAR and under 6'4
Jose Fernandez
Johnny Cueto
Jose Quintana
Max Scherzer
Masahiro Tanaka
Steven Wright
Kyle Hendricks
Marco Estrada
Kenta Maeda
Matt Shoemaker
Danny Duffy
Dallas Keuchel
Tanner Roark
Steven Matz

Keuchel, Duffy, Hendricks and Scherzer are 6'3. Most of the rest of that list aren't hard throwers. Cueto average 93. Quintana average 91. Tanaka average 92. Wright tops out at 83. Hendricks and Estrada are both 88. Maeda tops out at 90. Shoemaker also is at 90. Keuchel tops out at 89. Roark at 92 and Matz at 93. There's obviously a few caveats here. Duffy average 95. Fernandez averages 95. Scherzer averages 94. But strictly speaking the vast majority of guys on that list are throwing low 90's not 95+. And those who are throwing 95+ have all had arm troubles. Pedro Martinez was 5-11/195 and never had arm trouble. So, it can happen but there's a reason guys who are 6'5+ are drafted higher than smaller guys.

 

[DanTown]

Keep in mind that blurb was written prior to the season when De La Cruz was just starting to get noticed. As for Cease having better stuff, he might. His fastball is obviously good and his curve shows a lot of promise. From what I've read his change up jus isn't much yet. It may not need to be with the first two pitches. But, Cease has also had TJS already and he's on the smaller side. At 6'2/190 he's not Carl Edwards(6-3/170) but he's not far off. You mention having Prior's stuff... Prior was 6-5/230. De La Cruz is 6'4/200.

If you look through the top pitchers in the league here's the guys who are top 30 fWAR and under 6'4
Jose Fernandez
Johnny Cueto
Jose Quintana
Max Scherzer
Masahiro Tanaka
Steven Wright
Kyle Hendricks
Marco Estrada
Kenta Maeda
Matt Shoemaker
Danny Duffy
Dallas Keuchel
Tanner Roark
Steven Matz

Keuchel, Duffy, Hendricks and Scherzer are 6'3. Most of the rest of that list aren't hard throwers. Cueto average 93. Quintana average 91. Tanaka average 92. Wright tops out at 83. Hendricks and Estrada are both 88. Maeda tops out at 90. Shoemaker also is at 90. Keuchel tops out at 89. Roark at 92 and Matz at 93. There's obviously a few caveats here. Duffy average 95. Fernandez averages 95. Scherzer averages 94. But strictly speaking the vast majority of guys on that list are throwing low 90's not 95+. And those who are throwing 95+ have all had arm troubles. Pedro Martinez was 5-11/195 and never had arm trouble. So, it can happen but there's a reason guys who are 6'5+ are drafted higher than smaller guys.

I have very little problem with you scouting young guys based on their numbers, etc but you need to either watch guys play or read guys who watch them play and not just rely on numbers. You cannot scout talent from behind a computer. I'm not trying to comment on anything you've said about a player specifically; I just think you tend to rely solely on numbers to judge how players will or will not work out. The general consensus among anyone who's ever watched both Cease and de La Cruz pitch, everyone would argue that Cease has a much higher ceiling due to the natural ability to throw with velocity + movement as well as the projectable skills he has. Results are a matter of NOW where as scouting is WHAT WILL/COULD BE and those are different things.

 

[beckdawg]

I have very little problem with you scouting young guys based on their numbers, etc but you need to either watch guys play or read guys who watch them play and not just rely on numbers. You cannot scout talent from behind a computer. I'm not trying to comment on anything you've said about a player specifically; I just think you tend to rely solely on numbers to judge how players will or will not work out. The general consensus among anyone who's ever watched both Cease and de La Cruz pitch, everyone would argue that Cease has a much higher ceiling due to the natural ability to throw with velocity + movement as well as the projectable skills he has. Results are a matter of NOW where as scouting is WHAT WILL/COULD BE and those are different things.

The point I was making is that people think De La Cruz has more projection left in his body. At nearly 21, Cease isn't likely to grow several inches. Sure he might add some muscle but he's largely relying on what he already has but refining it. De La Cruz can both add velocity and refine what he has. Also for what it's worth I'm willing to bet I read far more about these guys from people who are both scouts and non-scouts than anyone on this board. I'm not just pulling numbers out of my ass here. There were reports out of cubs staff who said before the season that they thought De La Cruz was the best pitching prospect they had.

 

[beckdawg]

Also for what it's worth this is what Baseball America said about De La Cruz in November.

Baseball America described his attributes perfectly in this profile from last November:

Physicality is de la Cruz’s calling card. Some club officials project he could be as tall as 6-foot-6 and could push 250 pounds when he finishes growing, and he has a fast arm. His fastball sits in the 92-93 mph range but bumps 97 regularly when his delivery is in sync and he’s getting extension out front. At his best, his fastball features above-average life, movement and angle to go with its velocity, making it a potential double-plus pitch. His curveball flashes plus and pushes 80-81 mph. He’s still learning to throw his changeup with proper arm speed. Competitiveness is an asset for de la Cruz, who has shown a mean streak on the mound.

Basically it comes down to this. Cease is high risk/reward. He potentially has higher tools but the questions on him are whether or not he can A) refine his change up/command and B) stay a starter. And if it seemed as though I was shitting on him I wasn't. He's one of the few prospects I wouldn't trade if I were the cubs. But if the question is who are you putting your money on being an impact starter I think De La Cruz is a safer bet. He's not had surgery on his arm and he's got the build you look for in work horse of a rotation.

Also for what it's worth
https://theathletic.com/14006/2016/...ajor-pitching-prospects-in-the-minor-leagues/

 

[DanTown]

The point I was making is that people think De La Cruz has more projection left in his body.

I think that's an unfair statement since de la Cruz is March 1995 where as Cease is December 1995.

At nearly 21, Cease isn't likely to grow several inches. Sure he might add some muscle but he's largely relying on what he already has but refining it.

This is a hugely positive thing that Cease doesn't have to add anything but refine what he's doing. Cease has a more natural motion and he gets more out of it (he sits at 94-96 where as de la Cruz tops out there). That's a HUGE thing in evaluating MLB potential.

De La Cruz can both add velocity and refine what he has. Also for what it's worth I'm willing to bet I read far more about these guys from people who are both scouts and non-scouts than anyone on this board. I'm not just pulling numbers out of my ass here. There were reports out of cubs staff who said before the season that they thought De La Cruz was the best pitching prospect they had.

Here's Keith Law on de la Cruz

Nick L: Does Oscar De La Cruz have TOR upside? Your protege Eric L over at Fangraphs says future reliever, while some others have talked about a possible ace.
Klaw: Definitely not possible ace. Some starter potential. I’m more in line with Eric than the wishcasters who think he’s a top of the rotation guy.

Now Law on Cease

Cease was a potential top-10 pick in 2014 after his fastball hit 99 mph and he showed a plus curveball that spring, but he suffered a partial tear of his elbow ligament that didn't respond to treatment, requiring Tommy John surgery after he signed an overslot deal as a sixth-round pick of the Cubs that June. Cease returned this summer and was back up to 99, easier than ever with a cleaner delivery. He was just a year removed from the surgery, so he was throwing mostly fastballs and didn't fire off the curveball like he did before he got hurt, although scouts who saw it still had it as plus in the future. He has a lightning-quick arm and is a very athletic kid, so given more time between him and the knife, he should be able to throw more strikes and regain command of both pitches, although he'll have to throw his changeup more to develop it as a viable third pitch.

There's legit No. 2 starter upside here, and I think you can dream of more given how blank the slate is, as long as he stays on the mound for regular workloads going forward.

I'm not saying Law is right or what have you but I'm saying that the general consensus (i.e not just my opinion) among the scouting world is Cease > de la Cruz in terms of potential. If you want to say that de la Cruz is more likely to reach his ceiling since he's less injury risk that's fine but that doesn't mean de la Cruz is all of the sudden the better baseball player.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm not saying Law is right or what have you but I'm saying that the general consensus (i.e not just my opinion) among the scouting world is Cease > de la Cruz in terms of potential. If you want to say that de la Cruz is more likely to reach his ceiling since he's less injury risk that's fine but that doesn't mean de la Cruz is all of the sudden the better baseball player.

This is all opinion and if you ask various people you'll get various answers. And even if 100% of people agree that one player is a better prospect, that doesn't ultimately make that player a better baseball player. I sat here for a full year listening to people tell me how wrong I was about Kyle Hendricks being a #3 starter because of this or that reason. That's not me puffing out my chest saying look at me I'm always right. It's illustrating that even trained scouts often know fuckall about the ultimate conclusion of a player. And in the case of De La Cruz, there are scouts who do think he's the best pitcher in the cubs system. I literally linked an article(the athletic one) from a guy who used to work at I believe baseball prospectus and he said De La Cruz is the one to watch.

Regardless, I don't even know how this turned into Cease vs De La Cruz. My initial comment was simply De La Cruz would be a top 75 prospect when people do rerankings. That has little to do with Cease.

 

[CSF77]

It is all about durability here. Ceace may burn out but stuff wise he is TOR material. Cruz looks the work horse part. Bigger build and should be able to take on 200 innings per.

He is a safer bet out of the 2 right now. Cease needs to prove that he can put up innings as he develops.

 

[beckdawg]

It is all about durability here. Ceace may burn out but stuff wise he is TOR material. Cruz looks the work horse part. Bigger build and should be able to take on 200 innings per.

He is a safer bet out of the 2 right now. Cease needs to prove that he can put up innings as he develops.

Yeah that's all I'm saying. Well that and De La Cruz has a higher ceiling than people were thinking. I was never intending that to be a slight against Cease just that I worry if his body let's him be what his pitches can be.

 

[DanTown]

This is all opinion and if you ask various people you'll get various answers.

Hence why I said consensus opinion and not some individual's opinion.

And even if 100% of people agree that one player is a better prospect, that doesn't ultimately make that player a better baseball player. I sat here for a full year listening to people tell me how wrong I was about Kyle Hendricks being a #3 starter because of this or that reason. That's not me puffing out my chest saying look at me I'm always right. It's illustrating that even trained scouts often know fuckall about the ultimate conclusion of a player.

This would prove that discussion about prospects is entirely meaningless because sometimes people are spectacularly right (i.e Hendricks) or wrong (i.e Alcantra). Again, I'm talking about raw stuff when I have a Cease vs de la Cruz discussion. I have seen both guys throw (albeit not live) and read a lot about both due to the fact that Cease is the highest potential arm in the system and de la Cruz is the most accomplished. I do not buy any argument that says de la Cruz has better MLB stuff than Cease. I know there are people who like de la Cruz, but I simply don't think he has that ceiling. Could I be wrong? Of course I could, no scout thought Dallas Kuechel would win a Cy Young or that Corey Kluber would either but that's baseball I guess. But that's true of any pitcher in any organization at any given time then. Corey Kluber had a ERA of 5 as a 25 year old in AAA and won the Cy Young at age 28. Weird shit happens all the time. But that's result oriented belief where I'm talking about the process of developing pitchers. Sometimes you just back your way in to incredibly effective pitchers (i.e Arreita or Hendricks) but the vast majority of TOR arms are guys who were scouted to be TOR arms who then lived up to their potential. Doesn't mean every guy who had TOR stuff ever makes it though.

And in the case of De La Cruz, there are scouts who do think he's the best pitcher in the cubs system. I literally linked an article(the athletic one) from a guy who used to work at I believe baseball prospectus and he said De La Cruz is the one to watch.

Regardless, I don't even know how this turned into Cease vs De La Cruz. My initial comment was simply De La Cruz would be a top 75 prospect when people do rerankings. That has little to do with Cease.

It does matter because not only do YOU believe de la Cruz is better but you believe that other people (i.e people who do rankings) will agree with you. I don't care to debate the first part (it's an opinion that I can understand but do not agree with) but I disagree with the second part due to how others talk about both guys who are not you or me.