Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[beckdawg]

Updated the draft signing post.

 

[beckdawg]

updated draft post again.

 

[DanTown]

Thought an update of the minor-league systems would be good for everyone. I'll start with the big name guys then the "surprising" guys

AAA Iowa
Dan Vogelbach - .312/.426/.527 - 15 HR / 60 RBI / 15.9 BB rate - 18.9 K rate
Mark Zagunis (between AA/AAA) - .290/.384/.471 - 8 HR / 40 RBI / 5 SB / 12.7 BB rate - 18.3 K rate
Pierce Johnson - 9 starts / 32.1 innings / 7.24 ERA / 32 K - 23 BB
Ryan Williams - 9 starts / 44 innings / 3.27 ERA / 30 SO - 12 BB
Corey Black (between AA/AAA) - 31 appearances / 34.1 innings / 4.72 ERA / 39 K - 23 BB

AA West Tenn
Billy McKinney - .268/.347/.362 - 1 HR / 30 RBI / 13.8 BB rate - 19.6 K rate
Ian Happ (between A+/AA) - .316/.415/.500 - 9 HR / 53 RBI / 13 - 17 SB / 14.7 BB rate - 21.4 K rate
Duane Underwood - 13 starts / 58.2 innings / 4.91 ERA / 46 K - 31 BB
Jen-Ho Tseng - 11 starts / 54.1 innings / 2.98 ERA / 35 K - 17 BB

A+ (Myrtle Beach)
Gleyber Torres - .268/.347/.420 - 9 HR / 36 RBI / 16 - 23 SB / 9.7 BB rate - 21.4 K rate

A (South Bend)
Donnie Dewes - .274/.330/.414 - 3 HR / 49 RBI / 11 3B / 16 - 19 SB / 6.9 BB rate - 12.2 K rate
Eloy Jimenez - .332/.372/.527 - 10 HR / 58 RBI / 6-7 SB / 6.0 BB rate - 22.0 K rate
Eddy Martinez - .268/.342/.409 - 7 HR / 46 RBI / 5-8 SB / 9.3 BB rate - 21.3 K rate
Carson Sands - 13 starts / 62 innings / 4.29 ERA / 37 K - 30 BB

A-
Dylan Cease - 4 starts / 17 innings / 3.18 ERA / 16 K - 6 BB
Bryan Hudson - 4 starts / 17 innings / 3.18 ERA / 8 K - 12 BB


Now here are some guys who are having very good years but are not in that top prospect group
Ian Rice (A/A+) C - Turns 23 in August - .296/.410/.575 / 13 HR / 36 RBI / 16.6 BB rate - 19.2 K rate
Bijan Rademacher (AA) OF - Turned 25 in August - .302/.406/.446 / 7 HR / 27 RBI / 14.7 BB rate - 15.6 K rate
Chesney Young (AA) 2B/3B - Turns 24 in October - .287/.372/.362 / 3 HR / 19 RBI / 11.6 BB rate - 12.8 K rate

Jesus Castilo (A-) Turns 21 in August - 4 starts / 20.2 innings / 2.61 ERA / 29 K - 3 BB (12.6 K/9 and 9.7 KK/B)
Jose Paulino (LHP) (A-) Turned 21 in April - 4 starts / 22 innings / 0.82 ERA / 22 K - 2 BB
Pedro Aroijo (A/A+) Turned 23 in July - 12 appearances (0 starts) / 24.2 innings / 0.36 ERA / 28 K - 6 BB

 

[brett05]

I have a question. Why are the Cubs starters struggling to go 4-5 innings? Is this normal for the minors?

 

[beckdawg]

I have a question. Why are the Cubs starters struggling to go 4-5 innings? Is this normal for the minors?

Most teams in he minors "piggyback" starters. So you have a starter go 4-5 innings based on pitch count and essentially a second starter who goes 3-4 in relief rather than the mixing and matxhing of a bullpen you see in the majors. I think as you near the majors this is less prevelant in say AA/AAA but they do it to keep innings counts down on arms.

 

[Omeletpants]

What I dont understand is the modern starters inability to go more than 6 innings with 5 day rest. Used to be 4 man rotations with lots of complete games. But now the starters are so babied they dont believe the can pitch a full game

Anyone who didnt think those old pitchers threw hard never saw Gibson, Drysdale, Bunning, Ryan, McDowell, Palmer, Seaver, Carlton so that would be a bad comparison.

Would love to hear the explanation

 

[TC in Mississippi]

What I dont understand is the modern starters inability to go more than 6 innings with 5 day rest. Used to be 4 man rotations with lots of complete games. But now the starters are so babied they dont believe the can pitch a full game

Anyone who didnt think those old pitchers threw hard never saw Gibson, Drysdale, Bunning, Ryan, McDowell, Palmer, Seaver, Carlton so that would be a bad comparison.

Would love to hear the explanation

There are a few things but most of it is protection of investment. When a BOR starter made somewhere in the league minimum range and a TOR starter might make about 2-5% of overall payroll you could afford to let them pitch however long they wanted. Now that a BOR guy could be at $10-$12 mil
AAV with the TOR guys making $20-$30 mil AAV you're going to protect your assets.

The other reason is the greater understanding of injuries and arm motion that's been developed over the years has influenced how kids grow up in the game with pitch counts often starting before high school for the high projectible arms. Kids aren't asked to pitch over 7 innings at any level with regularity so they would have to be conditioned for it in the minors. When you combine those things you get organizations that aren't inclined to retrain their assets.

 

[brett05]

I've mentioned it in passing and do so here.

I'm a GM and I start with the minors 4 man rotations.

I attract the top pitchers in FA by advertising that change at the big league level and giving pitchers shots at winning 25 games a year over the life of their contract. I also pay a bit less than what they would get from a 5 man rotation. So say instead of $30 million per I offer $20 million per. I think the true pitchers pass on the salary and make up for it in so many other ways (achievements, marketing, etc).

 

[DanTown]

I've mentioned it in passing and do so here.

I'm a GM and I start with the minors 4 man rotations.

I attract the top pitchers in FA by advertising that change at the big league level and giving pitchers shots at winning 25 games a year over the life of their contract. I also pay a bit less than what they would get from a 5 man rotation. So say instead of $30 million per I offer $20 million per. I think the true pitchers pass on the salary and make up for it in so many other ways (achievements, marketing, etc).

So you want pitchers to risk injury (throwing more will always increase potential injury) and you want to pay LESS? Why would anyone take that deal?

Also, what do you do with injury? Have another guy who can pitch on three day rest?

 

[DanTown]

What I dont understand is the modern starters inability to go more than 6 innings with 5 day rest. Used to be 4 man rotations with lots of complete games. But now the starters are so babied they dont believe the can pitch a full game

Anyone who didnt think those old pitchers threw hard never saw Gibson, Drysdale, Bunning, Ryan, McDowell, Palmer, Seaver, Carlton so that would be a bad comparison.

Would love to hear the explanation

There is a lot that goes into it. The first is that these guys have to throw harder than Seaver, etc did. Maybe those guys could ratch it up and hit the 90s but they didn't have to sit there for six+ innings. Also, saying outliers can do something doesn't make it a good rule. In basketball, LeBron could play 80 games * 40 minutes a night and not get worn down but most players who would play that much risk injury. Outliers are supposed to prove the exception.

Secondly, the mound being higher made it much easier to pitch with leverage and velocity without all that force being created by the player.

Three, guys have a side day to work on pitches/stay loose that I'm not sure they did in the previous history. Maybe every fourth day is possible without the side day.

Four, with the advent of specialized bullpens and better depth, teams don't have to throw guys that much.

Finally, the hitters are drastically better today than previous. League average hitter 40 years ago was .254/.320/.360. Six guys in the NL slugged over .500. Now league average is .251/.321/.412 and 24 guys slug over .500. Back then, the bottom third of every single lineup was essentially facing the pitcher. You can pitch a lot easier (in terms of stress) with so many auto-outs.

There are still all-time great pitchers throwing today (Kershaw), they just do it against drastically better competition on the whole.

When you add this all together, you just see that pitching and using a pitcher as much as you did in 1976 in 2016 is simply not practical.

 

[brett05]

So you want pitchers to risk injury (throwing more will always increase potential injury) and you want to pay LESS? Why would anyone take that deal?

Also, what do you do with injury? Have another guy who can pitch on three day rest?

1) I would train them to run on four days rest. Injuries would be of no more risk than they are today as they would be trained.
2) With injuries it would be next guy up
3) People who really wanted to be pitchers and cared about baseball would be totally interested in history chasing

 

[brett05]

There is a lot that goes into it. The first is that these guys have to throw harder than Seaver, etc did. Maybe those guys could ratch it up and hit the 90s but they didn't have to sit there for six+ innings. Also, saying outliers can do something doesn't make it a good rule. In basketball, LeBron could play 80 games * 40 minutes a night and not get worn down but most players who would play that much risk injury. Outliers are supposed to prove the exception.

The guys in the past are said to be harder throwers. Sorry you are wrong.

There are still all-time great pitchers throwing today (Kershaw), they just do it against drastically better competition on the whole.

You'd have a hard time convincing anyone that players today are better than yesterday. Do the players have advantages today? Yes. But the players of yesterday would get those too if they were somehow able to play in modern times. The guys in the past did it without all the advantages of todays players.

 

[SilenceS]

The guys in the past are said to be harder throwers. Sorry you are wrong.



You'd have a hard time convincing anyone that players today are better than yesterday. Do the players have advantages today? Yes. But the players of yesterday would get those too if they were somehow able to play in modern times. The guys in the past did it without all the advantages of todays players.

What? Guys did not throw harder back then at all. The highest fastball velocity is at an all time high now.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...l-velocity-driveline-baseball-draft/85544320/

There may have been a handful of guys who throw hard compared to today. Sorry, you are wrong.

 

[brett05]

What? Guys did not throw harder back then at all. The highest fastball velocity is at an all time high now.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...l-velocity-driveline-baseball-draft/85544320/

There may have been a handful of guys who throw hard compared to today. Sorry, you are wrong.

Did you mean to show me a different article because that article did not speak of the past. Recent past (two years) but not what we are discussing here.

 

[SilenceS]

Did you mean to show me a different article because that article did not speak of the past. Recent past (two years) but not what we are discussing here.

Its showing that velocity is at an all time high in the league? Do you think we devolved as athletes?

 

[brett05]

Its showing that velocity is at an all time high in the league? Do you think we devolved as athletes?

I think pitching less has an affect, yes I do.

I put this here:

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/articles/fastest-pitcher-in-baseball.shtml

 

[SilenceS]

I think pitching less has an affect, yes I do.

I put this here:

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/articles/fastest-pitcher-in-baseball.shtml

So, one person. lol Im sure there has been a guy on this planet that has thrown harder than anyone. This is about a league not one man.

This is from 2012 and pitchers hitting 95 or more had tripled in just 7 years. Even has a scouting director talking about his 25 years experience.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8048897/the-age-pitcher-how-got-here-mlb

 

[beckdawg]

One thing people forget is that baseball today is different than baseball in the 70's. If you are in say 8th grade right now and you have any promise at all you both play on your school team and probably also a traveling team. In some states like Cali and Texas you may literally play baseball year round. What that means is by the time a player gets drafted as a pitcher they have so many more miles on their arm. And if they had mechanical flaws to begin with that just compounds the issue. Take Cease for example, he needed TJS before he was even drafted.

As for having people in the minors throw more innings, I don't know if they still are doing it but when Ryan was running Texas they did just that. So, it's not like it hasn't been tried. Ultimately, the thing is it's not about reps. It's about learning to effectively use your pitches. Hendricks is someone the cubs routinely pull around 90-100 pitches. I believe in the minors they look more in the 80 range. Does it really do Hendricks much good pitching an additional inning? His stuff is probably not as crisp and the fatigue on his arm is worse. Now sure that puts more weight on the bullpen and that's a different consideration but if you're viewing it from a starter perspective more innings doesn't mean a healthier arm.

Some have postulated the idea of taking this "piggyback" approach to the majors. In fact, some sort of expected the cubs to employee it with them having Cahill, Warren and Wood in the game. This is also sort of interesting because in modern baseball you see far more specialization than you did with relievers in the 70's and 80's. Back then you'd commonly see relievers go several innings and really your only specialized pitcher was your closer.

The other thing people need to understand is piggy backing starters doesn't really stop you from getting innings. What happens is you pitch less in an outing and then will often pitch sooner than you would in a MLB situation. For example, a MLB starter who average 6 innings a start for 34 starts pitches 204 innings. Minor league seasons are shorter(A- is 76, A/A+ is 138, AA is 137, AAA is 144) but Ryan Williams for example made 26 starts for 141.2 innings which is some where between 5.1-5.2 per start. So, if you played 162 games in the minors your probably talking about 40-45 starts but still around 200 innings. The added benefit of this is two fold. One, you are having young pitchers throwing tired which many believe causes injury and two, if there's something going wrong in a starter you get them out sooner and they pitch again sooner to give them a chance to rapidly fix it.

 

[beckdawg]

Following up on the draft as it's all final now, cubs signed everyone rounds 3-11, 13, 15-21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 32-33, and 38. They failed to sign Trey Cobb(12), Parker Dunshee(14), Dante Biasi(22), Rey Rivera(24), Austin Jones(26), Rian Bassett(28), Montana Parsons(30), Brenden Heiss(31), Davis Daniel(34), Ryan Kreidler(35), Jake Slaughter(36), Davis Moore(37), Anthony Block(39), and Deaundre Roberts(40).

Parsons, Bassett, and Rivera were juco guys. Cobb and Dunshee were college jr, Jones was a SO. Biasi, Heiss, Daniel, Kreidler, Slaughter, Moore, Block and Roberts were all high schoolers who chose college. Of them, Roberts was ranked 389 by BA, Kreidler 315, Daniel 109, Heiss 408, Rivera 270 and Cobb was 335.

 

[beckdawg]

Oscar De La Cruz made his first start of the season yesterday. 4 IP, 1 R(unearned), 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K.....pretty...pretty...good.