Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[beckdawg]

When I see Almora I see a cap of Starlin Castro with solid D. He seems to be able to hit but Castro had a uncanny ability to be able to turn on pitches that were not in the zone. After his mechanics got muddled from Theo's tinkering things went south.

Almora seems to have a strong hit tool. But is not adept at working the count.

To me that is more of a natural thing to a hitter. Aggressive or passive. It is not really something that is learned. It is more like natural instinct.

Now I believe that a player can polish his natural abilities but to try and change? I'm not sold on that. It feels counter productive and seeing how Castro never really was the same after it is really not a wise choice.

So that said, he is what he is. If he ends up a .270/.330/.450 hitter it wouldn't shock me. Basically he is bottom of the order there for his glove.

Still his impact is felt on the field. He will depend on the rest of the line up vs being depended upon. Or a role player vs a star

Context is every thing here. Keirmaier is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. He's not an amazing bat. Kevin Pillar hit .266/.303/.376 and was a top 10 CF last year. You have to take context into account when talking about Almora. It is silly to compare him to say Kris Bryant or Schwarber because the defensive demands in CF are so much higher. There were only 19 players in the league who played some CF and posted 2 fWAR or higher. And that includes guys like Adam Eaton, Ian Desmond, Yoenis Cespedes, and Randal Grichuk who aren't really CFs.

And the numbers I'm citing with regard to Almora are literally what he is today. In 117 PAs he was worth 0.9 fWAR. If you project that over 650 PAs for a full season that's a 5 win player. Now sample size and all that but even if you knock him down some, anything in the 3-4 win range for a CF is great. All of 13 "CFs" had 3 or more fWAR and those are Trout, Eaton(really a RF last year but w/e), Jackie Bradley, Fowler, Charlie Blackmon, Odubel Herrera, Kiemaier, Joc Pederson, Ender Inciarte, Ian Desmond(not really a CF), Kevin Pillar, Cespedes(again not a CF) and Billy Hamilton.

3 wins is right around borderline all-star territory. Using Castro as an example here, Castro's best season was 3.1 fWAR and it's not difficult to see Almora hit .280/.318/.408 Castro has in his career with the obvious difference being the gap in defense between the two. Castro obviously made some all-star games. Another comparison might be a slightly worse version of 2015 Jason Heyward. Heyward runs a little bit better and walks a lot more but Heyward has largely similar game power and both hit for high average. Heyward was worth 6 wins in 2015. So even if you knock half his value off for the difference between the two, a 3 win Almora is a huge value.

Like I said, that's all talking about what he is today. Most scouting i've read suggests he's near his top end already so if that's the case then fine. He's a nice little player. But scouting isn't always right. He very well could get better. If the power comes more than expected and he's say a 20 HR guy instead of the 10-15 guy he appears to be that's a big bonus. If pitching starts finally challenging him to where he needs to lay off pitches more and will start taking more walks... again added value.

Long story short here, all I'm saying is I don't get the negative air around Almora. He's 22. I get he's been in the system for seemingly ever but that's what you get when you draft HS over college. Schwarber showed up at 22. Bryant showed up at 23 in the majors. So, it's not like he's so far behind them in terms of age. Russell surprisingly showed up at 21 and has hit .240/.314/.404 in 1121 MLB PA's. In that context, is Almora's .277/.308/.455 line all that different? Both are stellar defenders thus far. Baez has hit .244/.289/.392 over 759 PAs from age 21-23 and even if you just look at 2016, you're still talking .273/.314/.423 and also a similarly great defender to Almora. I get the concept that both may have higher ceilings but both were top 10 prospects and at a similar age Almora is keeping up with them. And that's obviously before you talk about Almora's leadership and high baseball IQ which doesn't really factor into stats.

If you want to take Baez or Russell long term over Almora that's fine. I think it's easy to argue both have similar present floors and higher ceilings. But I'd take Almora over Happ right now in a heart beat in terms of pure value. Happ is a sexier prospect because his tools are louder but Almora is someone who just does the things you need to win and because of that his tools play up. He reminds me of Hendricks in that regard.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Almora is going to bring you what Zobrist brings you without the high walk rate at the plate. And if you consider Almora's stellar defense and a prime position it is not hard to imagine Almora having a better WAR career than Zobrist.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Almora is going to bring you what Zobrist brings you without the high walk rate at the plate. And if you consider Almora's stellar defense and a prime position it is not hard to imagine Almora having a better WAR career than Zobrist.

I like Almora and think he's going to do good things but Zobrist has the 7th highest compiled WAR since 2008 behind only Cabrera, Trout, Longoria, Votto, Beltre and Pedroia. That's going to be tough for the young man to beat.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

I like Almora and think he's going to do good things but Zobrist has the 7th highest compiled WAR since 2008 behind only Cabrera, Trout, Longoria, Votto, Beltre and Pedroia. That's going to be tough for the young man to beat.

Yep and the reason is he played second base, which is exactly why Almora can accomplish the same in CF. Yes it is a big assumption but expecting him to hit .270 with 15 homers a year and GG in Cf, he could reach that level. It wouldn't take much...

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-23-prospects-chicago-cubs/

 

[Omeletpants]

I was excited when Almora came up but now I'm seeing a guy that looks more like a .250 hitter. He doesn't hit for power and his hits are never really solid. He stands too far from the plate. I hope I'm wrong but I don't see a solid offensive player

 

[CSF77]

I think he could hit around .280-.300 when he finally develops. This year .260 would be a justified expectation.

His main issue is his lacking in taking free passes. He is a contact hitter and is looking to hit his way on vs work the count.

That is why I see him as a Castro type of hitter. If he shows that ability to put the ball into where the D is not then he will be successful.

My opinion of him will be based off his amount of doubles. That tells me he is more of a gap hitter. If he is just pushing singles then we got another Barney. Good glove but expendable.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think he could hit around .280-.300 when he finally develops. This year .260 would be a justified expectation.

His main issue is his lacking in taking free passes. He is a contact hitter and is looking to hit his way on vs work the count.

That is why I see him as a Castro type of hitter. If he shows that ability to put the ball into where the D is not then he will be successful.

My opinion of him will be based off his amount of doubles. That tells me he is more of a gap hitter. If he is just pushing singles then we got another Barney. Good glove but expendable.

I agree with you on the doubles. The key to OPS is in SLG not OBP although he needs that somewhere in the .320-.330 range to be effective. If you see something like .270/.320/.450 you're looking at a consistent 3-4 WAR player which in most years is in the upper third of MLB fro a CF.

 

[beckdawg]

I agree with you on the doubles. The key to OPS is in SLG not OBP although he needs that somewhere in the .320-.330 range to be effective. If you see something like .270/.320/.450 you're looking at a consistent 3-4 WAR player which in most years is in the upper third of MLB fro a CF.

I'd argue that if he's .270/.320/.450 he's closer to a 5 win player than 3-4. His defense plays up that much. Like I said in my lengthy reply to CSF77, his projected 650 PA sample from last year was a 5 win player. Obviously I think he'll come back down some from that but he didn't hit for .320 OBP last year either. My thing with Almora is you can't look at him like any other player. If you don't buy into the importance of defense I can see the skepticism though I would argue any OF with Schwarber in LF is going to get a lot of benefit out of a player like Almora who goes so well gap to gap. In that regard, his value is similar to how you evaluate Heyward. He does basically everything well but not amazing though in the case of Heyward he's obviously better than Almora overall.

Also, I think people are a bit too caught up in OBP. I get why and all but I think when you're discussing it you have to bring in context. It's obviously important for a 1-5 hitter to get on base. And in general it's never bad to get on base. But one of the problems the cubs have had is they often have lacked a guy who can put the ball in play to advance runners who are on. If you look at the line up, only Bryant, Rizzo and Contreras hit above .280. As an NL team you're going to eventually run into the pitcher if you don't have someone who gets hits. Almora hit .290/.322/.416 in the minors so you'll likely see his batting average rise.

Because of that I really like him in the lower half of the line up in front of arguably the best set of on base guys in the majors. If you're batting him 6th or 7th you frankly don't really want him walking. You want guys in front of the pitcher who put balls into play because the pitcher is going to kill rallies.

 

[brett05]

If Almora could be near Adam Eaton you have a keeper.

 

[TL1961]

I think he could hit around .280-.300 when he finally develops. This year .260 would be a justified expectation.

His main issue is his lacking in taking free passes. He is a contact hitter and is looking to hit his way on vs work the count.

That is why I see him as a Castro type of hitter. If he shows that ability to put the ball into where the D is not then he will be successful.

My opinion of him will be based off his amount of doubles. That tells me he is more of a gap hitter. If he is just pushing singles then we got another Barney. Good glove but expendable.

Aaaah, the obsession with offense right from the start. Here is a GG CF on a team full of offensive strength, and we're calling him expendable if he doesn't shine offensively.

I don't need offense in CZf this year nearly as much as D. Give him time. He will never be Trout offensively. That's ok.

 

[beckdawg]

If Almora could be near Adam Eaton you have a keeper.

He's not going to hit like Eaton. Eaton's a career .284/.357/.414 hitter which is a huge stretch for Almora to get there but defensively I think he's got a pretty good shot being as good if not better in terms of CF where Eaton struggled comparatively to what he did in RF. DRS had Almora saving 3 runs in 237 innings in the OF last year. UZR had him at 5.7 or 23.7 UZR/150. Typically you'll play 1200-1300 innings which would put him on pace for ~15 DRS. Sample size is far to low to reliably predict but there were 7 OF with 15+ DRS last year. Betts(32), Pillar(21), Eaton(20), Heyward(18), Marte(17), and Hamilton(15). In terms of UZR/150, you're roughly look at the same list with Pillar(26.3), Heyward(23.2), Eaton(18.1), Hamilton(17.2), Betts(17.2) and Inciarte(16.0) being the only guys above 15 UZR/150.

Like I said, the data is no where near enough to draw firm conclusions but given the scouting report on him was potential gold glove in CF coming up it's likely pretty accurate to assume he'll be around there.

 

[Diehardfan]

If Almora stood 3 inches closer to home plate, he'd boost his OBP fifty points.

 

[CSF77]

If Almora stood 3 inches closer to home plate, he'd boost his OBP fifty points.

Almost wish Candelero played CF to be honest. He has a really good make up at the plate. Sad he is blocked.

 

[beckdawg]

MLB.com put out their top 100.

14 Jiminez
28 Happ
75 Almora
77 Cease
96 Candelario

BTW Torres was #3...

 

[CSF77]

MLB.com put out their top 100.

14 Jiminez
28 Happ
75 Almora
77 Cease
96 Candelario

BTW Torres was #3...

Eloy should jump up this year. He barely scratched his potential last year and he skyrocketed after a taste.

Torres is a great talent but after winning the WS it was worth it.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Is Almora still on the list just because he hasn't officially made the Club to start 2017?

 

[chibears55]

Is Almora still on the list just because he hasn't officially made the Club to start 2017?

If I remember correctly, I think they qualify for the prospects list up to a certain amount of either games played or ABs in major league.

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[chibears55]

MLB.com put out their top 100.

14 Jiminez
28 Happ
75 Almora
77 Cease
96 Candelario

BTW Torres was #3...

Good to see the Cubs still have a handful of top rated talent in the system that could be playing in WF within next 2 years or used to bring in a player needed to keep them contenders.

Only thing I wish we had out of this list was more then 1 pitcher. With position players being young and pretty much established on parent club and pitching being needed more of a need , especially after this year. Be nice to see a couple of potential starters on the list .

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[beckdawg]

Is Almora still on the list just because he hasn't officially made the Club to start 2017?

I think the cut off for prospect status is generally considered 200 PAs at the MLB level. Almora's not the only guy like this. Moncada and Swanson might both be on their respective rosters to start next year.