Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[CSF77]

Still a bit early for in season promotions. They usually do them during the minor league all star break which is late june if I recall

Normally I agree but in this case no. This his 2nd year at AA and AAA has problems. Butler promoted. Mills injured. Frankoff about the only quality arm and 1 spot is a bull pen day.

There is no reason to keep him at AA right now. If we were talking about Clifton then I would give into that logic. 1st year at AA and his walks are up. Even then he deserves a shot at AAA hitting.

 

[chibears55]

Still a bit early for in season promotions. They usually do them during the minor league all star break which is late june if I recall

That, and I got a feeling their going to give Anderson another chance when he ready

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[CSF77]

That, and I got a feeling their going to give Anderson another chance when he ready

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That has little bearing in Iowa if Butler demotes.

Frankoff 0-2 2.90
Brooks 7.57 ERA
Perez hasn't broken 5 innings with a 9 ERA
Paniagua BP day guy. 4.29.
Kelly 4.85 ERA

honestly The Whole staff is trash in Iowa.

 

[chibears55]

That has little bearing in Iowa if Butler demotes.

Frankoff 0-2 2.90
Brooks 7.57 ERA
Perez hasn't broken 5 innings with a 9 ERA
Paniagua BP day guy. 4.29.
Kelly 4.85 ERA

honestly The Whole staff is trash in Iowa.

I misread what you guys were talking about.. I thought you meant he should get promoted to cubs

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[CSF77]

I misread what you guys were talking about.. I thought you meant he should get promoted to cubs

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If he didn't struggle last year and was doing this at Iowa he would have been promoted. He is only 22 and is another control pitcher like Hendricks.

 

[DanTown]

If he didn't struggle last year and was doing this at Iowa he would have been promoted. He is only 22 and is another control pitcher like Hendricks.

Except he's nothing like Hendricks in that he's an extreme fly ball pitcher who likely would get shelled with the stuff he's throwing in AA in AAA ballparks, especially Iowa.

He's a fly ball pitcher who doesn't strike a ton of guys out, has good but not exceptional control, and doesn't get a ton of outs on the ground. He's 22, repeating AA for a second time, and has a decent ERA. That's the extent of his "should be promoted" but you don't promote or demote guys based on numbers like ERA. If he was striking out a ton of guys, inducing insane ground ball rates, or not walking literally anyone then maybe I'd buy an argument but he's doing none of that. Nothing I've read or seen in limited highlight videos shows a guy who's mastered AA to the point he shouldn't be there.

People like Beckbawg I respect because they spend a ton of time researching a guy and then provide not just (though sometimes it it's heavy on them) stats as to why a guy should move up or is a guy on the rise. You basically just read me the "who has the lowest/highest ERA, they must suck/be awesome" level of scouting which is essentially useless.

Ironically, here's what you said about the Iowa rotation

Frankoff 0-2 2.90
Brooks 7.57 ERA
Perez hasn't broken 5 innings with a 9 ERA
Paniagua BP day guy. 4.29.
Kelly 4.85 ERA

You skipped right over the guy who has pitched better in almost every way than Tseng: Seth Frankoff. He's been far better at inducing ground balls, he's striking guys out, he's throwing 90+ pitches, he's not walking guys, and he's limiting line drives. I don't think there's much there but he has the type of profile (different delivery, control pitcher, trys to get groundballs) where you just never know when you find a guy who can be a fifth starter at the MLB level. I'm not saying he's getting promoted tomorrow but his numbers are all better than Butler's were in the same competition: better K's, better gb rate, more swinging strikes.

 

[CSF77]

Age is a huge factor. Add to it Tseng has a plus curve and a strong BB:SO ratio. Career wise 88 BB to 288 SO's in 395 IP in the Cub system.

He fell out of the top 30 for a reason. Bad year and he is not a dominate pitcher. He is back of the rotation.

Not sure on The whole FB issue. 29 career HR's in those 395 IP. .96 GO/AO career wise.

Sounds kinda hater

 

[beckdawg]

Jeff Passan had this to say about Adbert Alzolay

Breakout alert. Alzolay was something of a no-name coming into this season. Now he’s the guy everyone is going to be asking for this July. The 6-foot-1 right-hander is sitting 94-95 and topping out at 98 mph with a strong curveball, a solid changeup and enough feel to stick as a starter. He won’t lead a rotation at any point, but there’s immense value in mid-level starters, and scouts believe the 22-year-old Alzolay is just that.

 

[CSF77]

He is under the radar.

I would rank the minor league starters by performance: Frankoff, Tseng, Clifton, Robinson, Alzolay. You can argue the order.

The top 2 starters have been on the DL that has lessened their seasons.

But all 5 are leading in BAA which means guys have a hard time squaring them up.

 

[beckdawg]

Ian Rice is becoming positively Vogelbachyin. That's probably a bit unfair to Rice considering Vogelbach couldn't play a position. Rice might be a crummy C but man can he hit. He's hitting .256/.377/.451 in AA with 15.1%/22.0% walk/k rates.

Chacer Burks is also killing AA at .305/.407/.445 with 13.4%/17.5% walk/k rates. He's primarily a corner OF guy mostly playing LF. So his value is a bit diminished but we're starting to see a number of guys who aren't really on the top 30 radar who would be interesting throw ins for july trades.

Jason Vosler also is killing AA at .290/.381/.544 with 10.7%/20.3%. He's probably someone you wanna keep around as one of the few minor league 3B's the cubs have around.

 

[CSF77]

Ian Rice is becoming positively Vogelbachyin. That's probably a bit unfair to Rice considering Vogelbach couldn't play a position. Rice might be a crummy C but man can he hit. He's hitting .256/.377/.451 in AA with 15.1%/22.0% walk/k rates.

Chacer Burks is also killing AA at .305/.407/.445 with 13.4%/17.5% walk/k rates. He's primarily a corner OF guy mostly playing LF. So his value is a bit diminished but we're starting to see a number of guys who aren't really on the top 30 radar who would be interesting throw ins for july trades.

Jason Vosler also is killing AA at .290/.381/.544 with 10.7%/20.3%. He's probably someone you wanna keep around as one of the few minor league 3B's the cubs have around.

Was reading some opinions and Cole was a hot topic. His issue this year is 19% of his FB are going for HR vs his 10% norm. He seems healthy.

The opinion was right now his value is Almora, Candy, De La Cruz and Caratini. You are buying 2 years after this one. NYY and the stroes should be in on him.

Archer is unlikely right now. TB is still in the hunt and they have the luxury of time with Archer.

Q's highest value was last off season and his peak may again be in the off season. It wouldn't be shocking for the sox to hold him.

So Cole looks to be the hot item right now and it most likely be a cost at that level. Out of those guys Candy and Almora are not going to start on the Cubs. But they are good enough to start. Caratini is a bat first and doesn't make smooth transitions behind the plate. He is a bat on the bench here with the occasional off day (That Schwarber could also do) catcher. Still a team like Pitt may want to work with him. If he was a plus catcher he would be top 100 prospect with his bat.

De La Cruz would hurt. No other way to look at it. But we are talking Cole in return.

Now getting to some of the names you listed. Honestly they are guys you see in add in's for mid tier talent. They really don't carry much trade weight so they are more flavor options. Not really the types to talk about unless you are talking end of the year rentals with medium impact.

 

[beckdawg]

Was reading some opinions and Cole was a hot topic. His issue this year is 19% of his FB are going for HR vs his 10% norm. He seems healthy.

The opinion was right now his value is Almora, Candy, De La Cruz and Caratini. You are buying 2 years after this one. NYY and the stroes should be in on him.

Archer is unlikely right now. TB is still in the hunt and they have the luxury of time with Archer.

Q's highest value was last off season and his peak may again be in the off season. It wouldn't be shocking for the sox to hold him.

So Cole looks to be the hot item right now and it most likely be a cost at that level. Out of those guys Candy and Almora are not going to start on the Cubs. But they are good enough to start. Caratini is a bat first and doesn't make smooth transitions behind the plate. He is a bat on the bench here with the occasional off day (That Schwarber could also do) catcher. Still a team like Pitt may want to work with him. If he was a plus catcher he would be top 100 prospect with his bat.

De La Cruz would hurt. No other way to look at it. But we are talking Cole in return.

Now getting to some of the names you listed. Honestly they are guys you see in add in's for mid tier talent. They really don't carry much trade weight so they are more flavor options. Not really the types to talk about unless you are talking end of the year rentals with medium impact.

I don't really buy that package getting it done and honestly the parts used don't mesh well with what the cubs would want to trade. Caratini is their only real emergency back up C in the minors worth a damn. Candleario is whatever. De La Cruz is viewed by some as the best pitching prospect the cubs have internally. Obviously Cease probably has a higher upside but some seem to believe he ends up a reliever. And Almora I can't imagine them trading. I don't buy Happ as an every day CF. He's serviceable at best. Perhaps if you had a stronger defender in LF you might consider him but putting him next to Schwarber long term is going to be an issue for your OF defense.

But even ignoring this from the cubs point of view I can't really see this set up making sense for the pirates. De La Cruz I could see them wanting. And likewise most teams want a C who can hit like Caritini has. But Almora and Candlerio don't make sense to me from their perspective because if you assume they are selling not just Cole but McCutchen at the deadline you still have Marte and Polanco who are gifted enough to cover LF(really their CF when in PIT) and CF. What they rather desperately need is some power. Last year they had 4 players hit more than 15 HRs(McCutchen, Kang, Sean Rodriguez and Polanco) and none of them hit more than 24. Their #1 prospect is Austin Meadows who's a CF type OF with 50 grade power(i.e. 15ish HR potential). Their #2 prospect is a pitcher Mitch Keller. Their #3 is SS Kevin Newman(30 grade power). Their #4 is 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes(45 grade power). Their #4 is SS Cole Tucker(40 grade power). Their #5 is 3B Will Craig(55 grade power). 7 and 8 are both pitchers. #9 is C Elias Diaz(35 grade power). #10 is a pitcher.

So, that literally leaves you with 1 guy in their top 10 who may hit more than 20 HRs on a team that doesn't possess much power and a team that can generally afford to pay FA's with power. Also, aside from that fact you are talking about OF and 3B being one of the areas they are deeper at in their minor league system which is another reason they don't really make sense unless said player is offering you power.

Long story short, if I'm the pirates i don't even bother taking your call unless the trade starts with Eloy. And frankly, I think most of the promising young starters are going to start with him as the cost like it or not. One way I could see that being different is perhaps Sonny Gray. Beane has historically traded for AA-MLB level talent that is ready-ish now rather than elite prospects. His thought process is essentially the A's can't rebuild a la the cubs because by the time the parts are all in place to compete he can no longer afford his good players. Given the abundance of good but not great near ready bats the cubs have and the fact that Gray is not really an elite level TOR type starter(also has a 4.57 ERA) I can see those two working out another deal.

 

[CSF77]

I don't really buy that package getting it done and honestly the parts used don't mesh well with what the cubs would want to trade. Caratini is their only real emergency back up C in the minors worth a damn. Candleario is whatever. De La Cruz is viewed by some as the best pitching prospect the cubs have internally. Obviously Cease probably has a higher upside but some seem to believe he ends up a reliever. And Almora I can't imagine them trading. I don't buy Happ as an every day CF. He's serviceable at best. Perhaps if you had a stronger defender in LF you might consider him but putting him next to Schwarber long term is going to be an issue for your OF defense.

But even ignoring this from the cubs point of view I can't really see this set up making sense for the pirates. De La Cruz I could see them wanting. And likewise most teams want a C who can hit like Caritini has. But Almora and Candlerio don't make sense to me from their perspective because if you assume they are selling not just Cole but McCutchen at the deadline you still have Marte and Polanco who are gifted enough to cover LF(really their CF when in PIT) and CF. What they rather desperately need is some power. Last year they had 4 players hit more than 15 HRs(McCutchen, Kang, Sean Rodriguez and Polanco) and none of them hit more than 24. Their #1 prospect is Austin Meadows who's a CF type OF with 50 grade power(i.e. 15ish HR potential). Their #2 prospect is a pitcher Mitch Keller. Their #3 is SS Kevin Newman(30 grade power). Their #4 is 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes(45 grade power). Their #4 is SS Cole Tucker(40 grade power). Their #5 is 3B Will Craig(55 grade power). 7 and 8 are both pitchers. #9 is C Elias Diaz(35 grade power). #10 is a pitcher.

So, that literally leaves you with 1 guy in their top 10 who may hit more than 20 HRs on a team that doesn't possess much power and a team that can generally afford to pay FA's with power. Also, aside from that fact you are talking about OF and 3B being one of the areas they are deeper at in their minor league system which is another reason they don't really make sense unless said player is offering you power.

Long story short, if I'm the pirates i don't even bother taking your call unless the trade starts with Eloy. And frankly, I think most of the promising young starters are going to start with him as the cost like it or not. One way I could see that being different is perhaps Sonny Gray. Beane has historically traded for AA-MLB level talent that is ready-ish now rather than elite prospects. His thought process is essentially the A's can't rebuild a la the cubs because by the time the parts are all in place to compete he can no longer afford his good players. Given the abundance of good but not great near ready bats the cubs have and the fact that Gray is not really an elite level TOR type starter(also has a 4.57 ERA) I can see those two working out another deal.

I see your point on Beene. Cole is not the same guy that pitched in 2015. He could bounce back to that level again. But he doesn't hold the same trade weight that Sale did.

 

[CSF77]

Basically they can ask for a top 25 prospect and but that doesn't mean they will get it.

They need a 3B and a C. CF they are set up. Corner OF is fine. But they do need a power bat. They have Josh Bell at first and he may end up their sole power hitter. So I could see a #5 hitter type behind him with power.


Selling Eloy: 2 things would make me ok with that. I.e. Both would be true. Not 1.

Heyward will play out his full contract.

Archer is the target.

 

[beckdawg]

I see your point on Beene. Cole is not the same guy that pitched in 2015. He could bounce back to that level again. But he doesn't hold the same trade weight that Sale did.

But the pirates don't have to trade him today which is the problem. They aren't going to give him away for next to nothing when they can just hold on to him and hope he improves. You're going to have to over pay based on his potential more so than what he has done in 2016. Whether or not the cubs are comfortable giving up Eloy for him is another story obviously.

I honestly don't know. Like if it was Eloy and some of the lessor names(i.e. bench type bats like Young) in the cubs system I'd probably be fine with it. Eloy is a very good prospect but I think cubs fans are overvaluing him. I've seen little to suggest he can play RF long term. Cubs have played him 1200 of his 1600ish innings in LF with the other 400ish being in RF. He's a below average runner and an average fielder. He does have a really strong arm but this belief you end up with an OF of Schwarber/Happ/Eloy would be a pretty poor OF defense. It's ironic in some ways people compared him to a Soler Jr because defensively we saw how despite having a cannon, Jorge's range and fielding really limited him to LF. I look at Eloy like a slightly better defensively version of Schwarber with Schwarber probably being a better bat. By in large I think they are essentially the same type of player.

I wouldn't worry about Heyward either. I can't imagine he opts out. He supposedly took less to come here so he obviously wants to play in Chicago. But even ignoring that it's not like there was a $300 mil deal out there for him. IIRC the talk was around 7-8 years at $200 mil. And since then he's not really hit like you'd want so there's going to be strong questions on his bat. So to suggest he is going to get more seems like a major stretch to me. He has two chances to opt out. One following next year and the second chance is following 2019. He would have to have an absolute monster year in 2018 to opt out of the 5 year $106 mil left because do we seriously believe that at his current hitting pace there's more than $21 mil a year out there for him? Now the second opt out if he had 2 big years I could maybe see but he's also tied down to a 550 PA trigger. It's not hard to massage that if the cubs so choose because all it takes is one minor injury to set him back for 10-15 games plus normal days off to go under that. For example last year Baez played 142 games but only had 450 PAs. And look at the going rate on someone like Fowler last year. He got $82.5 mil over 5($16.5 per). The differences between him and fowler aren't really $5 mil per year even if Heyward does rebound big and both will be similar age when an opt out would come.

 

[chibears55]

But the pirates don't have to trade him today which is the problem. They aren't going to give him away for next to nothing when they can just hold on to him and hope he improves. You're going to have to over pay based on his potential more so than what he has done in 2016. Whether or not the cubs are comfortable giving up Eloy for him is another story obviously.

I honestly don't know. Like if it was Eloy and some of the lessor names(i.e. bench type bats like Young) in the cubs system I'd probably be fine with it. Eloy is a very good prospect but I think cubs fans are overvaluing him. I've seen little to suggest he can play RF long term. Cubs have played him 1200 of his 1600ish innings in LF with the other 400ish being in RF. He's a below average runner and an average fielder. He does have a really strong arm but this belief you end up with an OF of Schwarber/Happ/Eloy would be a pretty poor OF defense. It's ironic in some ways people compared him to a Soler Jr because defensively we saw how despite having a cannon, Jorge's range and fielding really limited him to LF. I look at Eloy like a slightly better defensively version of Schwarber with Schwarber probably being a better bat. By in large I think they are essentially the same type of player.

I wouldn't worry about Heyward either. I can't imagine he opts out. He supposedly took less to come here so he obviously wants to play in Chicago. But even ignoring that it's not like there was a $300 mil deal out there for him. IIRC the talk was around 7-8 years at $200 mil. And since then he's not really hit like you'd want so there's going to be strong questions on his bat. So to suggest he is going to get more seems like a major stretch to me. He has two chances to opt out. One following next year and the second chance is following 2019. He would have to have an absolute monster year in 2018 to opt out of the 5 year $106 mil left because do we seriously believe that at his current hitting pace there's more than $21 mil a year out there for him? Now the second opt out if he had 2 big years I could maybe see but he's also tied down to a 550 PA trigger. It's not hard to massage that if the cubs so choose because all it takes is one minor injury to set him back for 10-15 games plus normal days off to go under that. For example last year Baez played 142 games but only had 450 PAs. And look at the going rate on someone like Fowler last year. He got $82.5 mil over 5($16.5 per). The differences between him and fowler aren't really $5 mil per year even if Heyward does rebound big and both will be similar age when an opt out would come.

Rather take my chances with Eloy and trade Schwarber...

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[beckdawg]

Rather take my chances with Eloy and trade Schwarber...

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I mean that's another way to go. I personally don't agree but my point on this matter remains largely the same. I don't see a situation where you keep both.

 

[CSF77]

I've always thought that it would be ideal having a hitting core of Bryant and Eloy countered by Rizzo and Schwarber. Mix in the rest to provide the best support.

So you would want a plus lead off then Bryant, Rizzo, Eloy, Schwarber. After it would be D minded players. Russell, Baez and Contreras.

If Schwarber was a league avg catcher and his bat met his potential then you would have a prime trade chip in Contreras. Honestly it would be the only reason worthy enough to demote Schwarber. Catch full time. Push Happ to starting LF and start Almora every day.

But in reality it most likely will be Schwarber or Eloy in LF. I don't see Kyle as a starting catcher.

 

[beckdawg]

In an ideal world what I'd like to see is the cubs find some way of acquiring Gray without giving up Eloy, Happ or Baez and also not giving up De La Cruz, Cease and Albertos. That may seem unlikely but Clifton and Candelario would be a decent start to a trade. Perhaps you could get something done by adding in Zagunis and one other half decent guy. It's tough to say really because while Gray obviously has talent he's not been the same guy the past 1.5 years that he was a few years ago and even then he was always good not great.

Anyways, if they found a way to make that sort of deal this trade deadline I'd be pretty happy. You could essentially plug Gray in as your 5 or 4 and push Lackey back and give Butler some more time to work out his kinks or use him as your #6 starter headed into the playoffs. Where this would be really nice is if you lose Lackey and Arrieta in the offseason you then have 4 of 5 starters with Lester, Hendricks, Gray and one of Butler/Montgomery/Mills and you would have the pieces to put together a bigger deal for someone like Cole or Archer.

 

[beckdawg]

So when I was looking into the AA hitters I mentioned earlier I'd also looked at pitchers but didn't really bring them up as a lot of them don't have enough innings to warrant talk other than guys we already know. But i did notice Michael Rucker had a really great k/bb ratio. I looked and he didn't have any starts so I was like meh because minor league relievers are often not worth talking about. Well turns out he started for Myrtle Beach today which is very very interesting if they now think he can start.

For context, he has 56 k's in 35.2 innings since being drafted last year not including the game he had last night(5 IP, 1 H, 0 R. 1 BB, 6 K (W)). I mean that k/bb rate is absurd. You're talking about 62 k's and 4 bb's in 40.2 innings which equates to a 13.88 k/9 and a 0.90 bb/9. Also FWIW, he's given up 27 hits in 40.2 innings with those 4 walks which is what a 0.76 whip? No one is *that* good. Not even Clayton Kershaw. And while he was a year or so old for South bend he's basically average for MB. He's not the biggest guy(6-1 185) but he's not small either.

Supposedly the book on him is 88-94(cubs den says more 92-94) fastball with a low 80's slider low-mid 80's change up and a mid 70's curve. Looking at his college stats to add some more data he was at 158 k's and 62 walks over 180 innings which comes out to a 7.9 k/9 and a 3.1 bb/9. So, he's probably best case more in that 2.5-3 bb/9 range and we're just seeing a limited data set there but even at 3.1 bb/9 that isn't terrible. It's just more average. 8 k/9 is actually above average assuming he keeps it that way. It's more #2ish starter range but definitely not bad. That's not to say Rucker is for sure a MOR starter right now. He only has the one start and I believe it was a double header so they may have just been limited on bodies and this might be a one time thing but given the numbers he has produced so far he's definitely worth keeping an eye on. The way he's dominating A+ right now it wouldn't shock me to see them give him a shot at AA after the minor league all star break.

Regardless for an 11th round pick he looks like a steal right now. Cubs haven't gotten enough credit for their mid round pitching picks. Duncan Robinson has been discussed here. Dakota Mekkes has been dominant in relief work. Then you got guys like Preston Morrison who's having a tough year thus far in AA but was stellar last year along with guys like Ryan Williams and James Farris who they dealt for Eddie Butler. I wouldn't say anyone has been a home run yet but definitely a bunch of guys who've panned out to be useful and a lot have been under slot guys.