Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[CSF77]

Their focus has been mid- late round pitching. Nothing has become of it so the book is out on their philosophy

Their greatest success has been in trading for cast offs like Arrieta, Butler etc.

 

[CSF77]

My issue with Sonny is why did he lost effectiveness. And is it a mechanical issue or is it a degration of ability.

If it is something that be fixed then yes. If it is a degration of talent due to wear then you back off.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

It's interesting that the name that keeps cropping up and is said that teams will ask the Cubs for in trade is Adbert Alzolay who isn't even a top 30 prospect. He's considered a favorite of the FO as well.

 

[CSF77]

It's interesting that the name that keeps cropping up and is said that teams will ask the Cubs for in trade is Adbert Alzolay who isn't even a top 30 prospect. He's considered a favorite of the FO as well.

He isn't a big guy but his stuff is good. A guy like that gets rated on performance and should be on the charts the next rankings.

 

[beckdawg]

Their focus has been mid- late round pitching. Nothing has become of it so the book is out on their philosophy

Their greatest success has been in trading for cast offs like Arrieta, Butler etc.

I disagree with this for a couple of reasons. First, drafting is largely about where you put your money. With the exception of Cease, Sands and Steele the cubs have barely even drop anything into pitching. the VAST majority of the arms they signed were college seniors who literally took anything. This is how you end up with guys like Ryan Williams incidentally and the aforementioned Preston Morrison. College seniors are largely worthless in many teams eyes so the fact the cubs managed to get what they have out of those guys in commendable. Secondly, you shouldn't expect anything after the 5th round of the draft to amount to anything really. 5-10th round guys sometimes make it but anyone post 10th is very very rare. I mean it happens but the shear volume of people picked make the probability ridiculously low. It's probably lower than 1% making it to AAA/MLB.

Honestly if anything their "failure" has been high round pitching. Underwood isn't the guy that he appeared to be as a 2nd round guy. Then you have Sands who hasn't really progressed like you'd hope. Thus far Hudson has also disappointed though that was sort of expected from a huge lefty learning his stuff. Pierce Johnson has been moved the the bullpen. I'm not going to crap on them for this because finding pitching is throwing shit at the wall and finding what sticks. But, I think their doing a better job than people give them credit for.

 

[DanTown]

So when I was looking into the AA hitters I mentioned earlier I'd also looked at pitchers but didn't really bring them up as a lot of them don't have enough innings to warrant talk other than guys we already know. But i did notice Michael Rucker had a really great k/bb ratio. I looked and he didn't have any starts so I was like meh because minor league relievers are often not worth talking about. Well turns out he started for Myrtle Beach today which is very very interesting if they now think he can start.

For context, he has 56 k's in 35.2 innings since being drafted last year not including the game he had last night(5 IP, 1 H, 0 R. 1 BB, 6 K (W)). I mean that k/bb rate is absurd. You're talking about 62 k's and 4 bb's in 40.2 innings which equates to a 13.88 k/9 and a 0.90 bb/9. Also FWIW, he's given up 27 hits in 40.2 innings with those 4 walks which is what a 0.76 whip? No one is *that* good. Not even Clayton Kershaw. And while he was a year or so old for South bend he's basically average for MB. He's not the biggest guy(6-1 185) but he's not small either.

Supposedly the book on him is 88-94(cubs den says more 92-94) fastball with a low 80's slider low-mid 80's change up and a mid 70's curve. Looking at his college stats to add some more data he was at 158 k's and 62 walks over 180 innings which comes out to a 7.9 k/9 and a 3.1 bb/9. So, he's probably best case more in that 2.5-3 bb/9 range and we're just seeing a limited data set there but even at 3.1 bb/9 that isn't terrible. It's just more average. 8 k/9 is actually above average assuming he keeps it that way. It's more #2ish starter range but definitely not bad. That's not to say Rucker is for sure a MOR starter right now. He only has the one start and I believe it was a double header so they may have just been limited on bodies and this might be a one time thing but given the numbers he has produced so far he's definitely worth keeping an eye on. The way he's dominating A+ right now it wouldn't shock me to see them give him a shot at AA after the minor league all star break.

Regardless for an 11th round pick he looks like a steal right now. Cubs haven't gotten enough credit for their mid round pitching picks. Duncan Robinson has been discussed here. Dakota Mekkes has been dominant in relief work. Then you got guys like Preston Morrison who's having a tough year thus far in AA but was stellar last year along with guys like Ryan Williams and James Farris who they dealt for Eddie Butler. I wouldn't say anyone has been a home run yet but definitely a bunch of guys who've panned out to be useful and a lot have been under slot guys.

Important to note that Rucker's success is almost exclusively with him out of the bullpen, not a starter. I'm not saying he can't be a starter but the organization maybe views him as a better arm out of the pen. I wonder if he has more life/velocity to his pitches out of the bullpen as opposed to starting. His last appearance was a start and it was quite good (5 innings, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K) but interesting to see what the difference is.

Also he was already promoted (Myrtle to SB) so I doubt he has another jump in him unless he just flat out dominates A+ as a starter.

 

[DanTown]

Quick thing about the pitching in the organization: assuming Hendricks and Lester are in the rotation for the next four years in some capacity, you really need three starters

- A legit, bonafide ace (top 5 or so in WAR year in/year out)
- A solid starter capable of being good
- An innings eater

Otani is a guy this organization likely loves and would commit the money to to keep him at the legit ace stage but outside of that, no one really strikes me as a guy worthy of that in FA.

Arrieta is either back on the QO or the Cubs likely get a pick in the top 100 of the 2018 draft.

Which means out of the arms in the organization, you really only need one or two to be good. While none seem likely to be there next year, 2019 Cubs rotation could definitely feature a guy like Clifton and a guy like de La Cruz or Cease if they continue to develop and stay healthy.

The Otani thing really hurt because he likely would have been a decent bridge to the youth being TOR starters. Now, you kind of need someone to take a leap to that spot that otherwise they wouldn't have had to do.

 

[CSF77]

Quick thing about the pitching in the organization: assuming Hendricks and Lester are in the rotation for the next four years in some capacity, you really need three starters

- A legit, bonafide ace (top 5 or so in WAR year in/year out)
- A solid starter capable of being good
- An innings eater

Otani is a guy this organization likely loves and would commit the money to to keep him at the legit ace stage but outside of that, no one really strikes me as a guy worthy of that in FA.

Arrieta is either back on the QO or the Cubs likely get a pick in the top 100 of the 2018 draft.

Which means out of the arms in the organization, you really only need one or two to be good. While none seem likely to be there next year, 2019 Cubs rotation could definitely feature a guy like Clifton and a guy like de La Cruz or Cease if they continue to develop and stay healthy.

The Otani thing really hurt because he likely would have been a decent bridge to the youth being TOR starters. Now, you kind of need someone to take a leap to that spot that otherwise they wouldn't have had to do.

Chris Tillman, Michael Pineda some of the names I expect floated around this off. I doubt they ink a mega. That is why they may deal for a TOR this year. That way they can spend less on 2 F/A's that fill the mid rotation.

I believe Lester is a 2. I also believe management views him as a staff ace. So I doubt thay are looking for a improvement to him vs extending the quality behind him.

Tillman is having a rough year and I doubt he gets this mega deal. But he is the type that Bosio can work with. Pineda is going to get paid by someone. So he is more unlikely.

So as a trade target. Honestly quality RHP is always on the market. With Duffy extending the same is not true with LHSP.

So it makes more sense to sell goods for what is not abundant vs what is.

 

[beckdawg]

Isaac Paredes is probably going to be a top 100 guy sooner or later. I wouldn't quite put him in the same class as Torres but he's 18 playing at south bend like Torres and he's handling himself decent enough hitting .245/.314/.337. He probably gets moved to 3B or 2B sooner or later but that line isn't terribly far off Torres' .293/.353/.386 last year. You're more or less talking about the difference being in the batting average being ~50 points higher which also feeds into the slg/obp. Not bad for a guy 3 or so years younger than the league average. He hit .305 in Mesa last year so it wouldn't surprise me to see him come on in the second half.

 

[CSF77]

Isaac Paredes is probably going to be a top 100 guy sooner or later. I wouldn't quite put him in the same class as Torres but he's 18 playing at south bend like Torres and he's handling himself decent enough hitting .245/.314/.337. He probably gets moved to 3B or 2B sooner or later but that line isn't terribly far off Torres' .293/.353/.386 last year. You're more or less talking about the difference being in the batting average being ~50 points higher which also feeds into the slg/obp. Not bad for a guy 3 or so years younger than the league average. He hit .305 in Mesa last year so it wouldn't surprise me to see him come on in the second half.

His .305 can in Azl that is known to juice stats. I wouldn't jump on his bandwagon until he produces like that in a place like MB or Tenn. on that team Short feels like he could break out. Good BB rate and is a SB threat.

 

[beckdawg]

His .305 can in Azl that is known to juice stats. I wouldn't jump on his bandwagon until he produces like that in a place like MB or Tenn. on that team Short feels like he could break out. Good BB rate and is a SB threat.

17 year olds generally don't hit in mesa. Hell, most 17 year old IFA's don't even make it stateside. You're generally only talking about the cream of the crop types like Eloy/Torres. And it's not like he has super inflated BABIP or anything. It was largely because he had a 7% walk rate and a 10.8% k rate. The guy can put bat to ball. South Bend is pretty pitching neutral. The fact he's keeping up with guys 3 years older than him in A ball is a big deal. In fact you could argue he's been unlucky in south bend as his BABIP is .265. He largely looks like the same hitter he was in Mesa with the stats available. 7.8% walk rate and a 12.7% bb rate. His line drive rate is marginally down about 2.5% but that's pretty close to being noise variance.

Right now there's all of 5 18 year olds in the midwest league. Vlad Guerrero jr. and Fernando Tatis are pretty big time IFA signings. Vlad Jr. got a $3.9 mil bonus. Tatis got a $700k bonus. Mario Feliciano was 75th pick of last years draft. Keibert Ruiz I don't know anything about. As a comparison, Aramis Ademan who the cubs gave $2 mil started in the DSL and he only hit .254 in an inferior league. That's not really a knock on him but more to illustrate the quality difference in their bats.

I'm not necessarily saying he will be a top 25 or top 50 guy but I'd be surprised if he isn't a top 100 guy within the next 3 years. I mean this is literally the argument I made for Torres before he broke out into top 50 range around last year. As I said, i don't think Paredes will be as highly rated as Torres mainly because he probably shifts to 2B or 3B but being able to keep up with older competition is one of the best signs for future success because when he gains a few years and gets better he'll be ahead of those guys he's even with now.

 

[CSF77]

17 year olds generally don't hit in mesa. Hell, most 17 year old IFA's don't even make it stateside. You're generally only talking about the cream of the crop types like Eloy/Torres. And it's not like he has super inflated BABIP or anything. It was largely because he had a 7% walk rate and a 10.8% k rate. The guy can put bat to ball. South Bend is pretty pitching neutral. The fact he's keeping up with guys 3 years older than him in A ball is a big deal. In fact you could argue he's been unlucky in south bend as his BABIP is .265. He largely looks like the same hitter he was in Mesa with the stats available. 7.8% walk rate and a 12.7% bb rate. His line drive rate is marginally down about 2.5% but that's pretty close to being noise variance.

Right now there's all of 5 18 year olds in the midwest league. Vlad Guerrero jr. and Fernando Tatis are pretty big time IFA signings. Vlad Jr. got a $3.9 mil bonus. Tatis got a $700k bonus. Mario Feliciano was 75th pick of last years draft. Keibert Ruiz I don't know anything about. As a comparison, Aramis Ademan who the cubs gave $2 mil started in the DSL and he only hit .254 in an inferior league. That's not really a knock on him but more to illustrate the quality difference in their bats.

I'm not necessarily saying he will be a top 25 or top 50 guy but I'd be surprised if he isn't a top 100 guy within the next 3 years. I mean this is literally the argument I made for Torres before he broke out into top 50 range around last year. As I said, i don't think Paredes will be as highly rated as Torres mainly because he probably shifts to 2B or 3B but being able to keep up with older competition is one of the best signs for future success because when he gains a few years and gets better he'll be ahead of those guys he's even with now.

I said I wouldn't make too much of it until he is producing like that at a stadium that mattered. Not he is trash. I took the fact he is 18 into account and said MB/Tenn taking in account that he should be 19-20 and matured more.

Right now he is still a possiblitty.

 

[beckdawg]

Another day another good Tseng outing. Hits were high but 5.2 IP, 7 hits 2 ER, 4 walks and 8 K's.... you'll take it.

 

[CSF77]

They really need to promote him. Get him into the depth mix for next year.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't know if Dakota Mekkes will get over his command issues but he's been basically unhitable as a pro. He's thrown 51 innings and only given up 26 hits. What's bonkers is over those 51 innings he has 74 k's. Obviously the down side is his 18 walks. Mekkes is really intriguing because he looks the part of an elite reliever but he has 14 multi-inning appearance this year. So while he looks the part of a future closer, you may actually be better off using him as an elite bridge to your closer similar to the usage of Andrew Miller in the playoffs. If you get in trouble in the 6th or 7th you can bring him in for an inning or two to hopefully get you out of jams.

Also for what it's worth, that absurd k rate isn't just small data. That's largely what got him drafted having done similar things at Michigan State striking out 96 batters in 57 innings.

 

[CSF77]

My top 4. Based off age not rankings.


Robinson SB (23)Dec: SO/9: 7.13 H/9: 6.34 BB/9: 1.35
Tseng Tenn(22)Oct: SO/9: 7.83 H/9: 8.06 BB/9: 2.12
Clifton Tenn(22)May: SO/9: 7.57 H/9: 7.43 BB/9: 3.71
Alzolay MB(22)March: SO/9: 8.71 H/9: 7.14 BB/9: 2.29

Robinson needs to promote. H/9 is so low he is not even being challenged by the hitters. BB/9 shows he is around the plate. But the fact he is turning 24 at season's end he needs to get rushed up.

Alzolay has really strong peripherals. Highest SO/9. BB/9 and H/9 are right with Clifton and Tseng. Honestly he is a great trade piece.
Tseng and Clifton are right where they should be right now. Age wise they are close to each other. You could honestly see them promoted up together to Iowa after the minor league ASG's are done. Both are leading that staff. Thus opens up rotation spots for promotion.

 

[beckdawg]

Justin Steele looks like he might be back to his draft status. Pitched 6 innings giving up 1 ER with 3 hits 2 walks and 68. That brewers team had Corey Ray(#5 overall pick last year #23 overall prospect), Isan Diaz(#56 overall prospect), Trent Clark(#6 brewers prospect who's a 50 grade probably near the cusp of top 100), Jake Gatewood(#25 brewers prospect) and Lucas Erceg(#7 brewers prospect grade 50). That's a pretty stacked offensive team.

 

[CSF77]

Justin Steele looks like he might be back to his draft status. Pitched 6 innings giving up 1 ER with 3 hits 2 walks and 68. That brewers team had Corey Ray(#5 overall pick last year #23 overall prospect), Isan Diaz(#56 overall prospect), Trent Clark(#6 brewers prospect who's a 50 grade probably near the cusp of top 100), Jake Gatewood(#25 brewers prospect) and Lucas Erceg(#7 brewers prospect grade 50). That's a pretty stacked offensive team.

I was holding back on him. Last night he put up some strong numbers.

Over all SO/9: 7.37. H/9: 9.30. BB/9: 3.25

If he was RH he would be a after thought. But the fact he is 22 next month and left handed it is hopeful. Honestly he is not in the same class as Clifton etc. but he is getting into the conversation.

 

[beckdawg]

Michael Rucker pitched a strong game against that same Brewers affiliate. 4.2 IP 2 hits 1 ER 3 BB 5 K's

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I don't know if Dakota Mekkes will get over his command issues but he's been basically unhitable as a pro. He's thrown 51 innings and only given up 26 hits. What's bonkers is over those 51 innings he has 74 k's. Obviously the down side is his 18 walks. Mekkes is really intriguing because he looks the part of an elite reliever but he has 14 multi-inning appearance this year. So while he looks the part of a future closer, you may actually be better off using him as an elite bridge to your closer similar to the usage of Andrew Miller in the playoffs. If you get in trouble in the 6th or 7th you can bring him in for an inning or two to hopefully get you out of jams.

Also for what it's worth, that absurd k rate isn't just small data. That's largely what got him drafted having done similar things at Michigan State striking out 96 batters in 57 innings.

Mekkes has been promoted to Myrtle Beach.