Just curious to what you all think here on this...
Seeing and hearing baseball people going goo goo over what the Sox have done with their system lately..
Rightfully so..
But
I'm looking at who all their top prospects are and I'm seeing that 18 of their top 20 are either pitchers (11) or Outfielders (7)..
Cubs did their rebuild by having most of their top prospects being hitters and playing different positions..
Not sure how sports people on tv and radio are predicting that they can contend for a division title by 2020 with their prospects when their all bunched into 2 positions..
Pitchers and Outfielders
Im sure there's more in the works plus they're probably looking at somewhere near a top 5 pick next year. They may have some people in place right now, if they work out. Nobody expects them to win anytime soon....so they have time to sort things out.
Davidson 3b
Anderson SS
Moncada 2B
Abreu 1B maybe
Collins C
Garcia DH
Best 3 in the OF
Just curious to what you all think here on this...
Seeing and hearing baseball people going goo goo over what the Sox have done with their system lately..
Rightfully so..
But
I'm looking at who all their top prospects are and I'm seeing that 18 of their top 20 are either pitchers (11) or Outfielders (7)..
Cubs did their rebuild by having most of their top prospects being hitters and playing different positions..
Not sure how sports people on tv and radio are predicting that they can contend for a division title by 2020 with their prospects when their all bunched into 2 positions..
Pitchers and Outfielders
It really depends because at this point all of those players are just bargaining chips that might run into stars. Going heavy on pitching seems foolish to me because for every star you find 2 or 3 guys flame out. That's just the reality of things. It's also why the trade for someone like Q with control is so cheap. As for the positions thing with OFers I'm not sure it's a huge issue. Cubs like to build via up the middle players or guys with big time bats. The Sox did get Moncada who they are playing at 2B which is some what disappointing. I think you'd prefer him to be a 3B. And They have 1B locked down. So from an infield perspective you're really talking about 3B, SS and C and Collins seems like a decent bat first C.
It really depends because at this point all of those players are just bargaining chips that might run into stars. Going heavy on pitching seems foolish to me because for every star you find 2 or 3 guys flame out. That's just the reality of things. It's also why the trade for someone like Q with control is so cheap. As for the positions thing with OFers I'm not sure it's a huge issue. Cubs like to build via up the middle players or guys with big time bats. The Sox did get Moncada who they are playing at 2B which is some what disappointing. I think you'd prefer him to be a 3B. And They have 1B locked down. So from an infield perspective you're really talking about 3B, SS and C and Collins seems like a decent bat first C.
The White Sox infield is actually pretty set. At first you have Abreu. 2b Moncada. 3b Davidson SS Anderson. Now you have guys like Saladino, Sanchez, and Hanson as well as Garcia to be utility guys. In the minors the system has Burger to be in the mix at 3b/1b and Sheets to be at 1b/DH. At C it's Collins and Skoug.
And in the OF, well there's a ton of guys. If Anderson fizzles at SS they don't have a solid spec to play that role like they do at other positions. So it would be a need of trade of free agent. But you are speaking of a team that is set everywhere on the diamond with depth sans SS. I don't think there's a team in baseball that can say that now or in recent years including the Cubs.
Doesn't mean these guys will work out like the Cubs. But I am looking forward to this attempt at getting the team to be competitive year in and year out starting in 2019/2020.
The White Sox infield is actually pretty set. At first you have Abreu. 2b Moncada. 3b Davidson SS Anderson. Now you have guys like Saladino, Sanchez, and Hanson as well as Garcia to be utility guys. In the minors the system has Burger to be in the mix at 3b/1b and Sheets to be at 1b/DH. At C it's Collins and Skoug.
And in the OF, well there's a ton of guys. If Anderson fizzles at SS they don't have a solid spec to play that role like they do at other positions. So it would be a need of trade of free agent. But you are speaking of a team that is set everywhere on the diamond with depth sans SS. I don't think there's a team in baseball that can say that now or in recent years including the Cubs.
Doesn't mean these guys will work out like the Cubs. But I am looking forward to this attempt at getting the team to be competitive year in and year out starting in 2019/2020.
I would think Abreu will be gone before the rebuild is done though. He'll be valuable to someone in the race next year or the year after and the Sox could get an overpay for him and fill one of those other holes. 1B/DH types are never difficult to find in FA and they're the least valuable by WAR so they're not outrageous in cost. Until then though he's a great mentor to the younger Latin players so I wouldn't be in a rush to deal him, but there will come a time. As far as infielders I was kind of surprised that neither Ademan or Peredes were insisted on by Hahn in Quintana deal, or maybe he did push and they compromised. I think both will be MLB players but they're 18 so whether they are starters or bench help I couldn't tell you at this point.
Don't forget about FA in terms of the White Sox adding value to the roster but my main concern is a lot of their hitting prospects are ranked high because of what they did pre minor league; not so much that they're tearing up baseball now. Collins isn't hitting like you'd like to see a college guy hit in A+.
What the Sox have proven is they can trade high value players for quality prospects. It's impressive what they got but they traded three of the most efficient players in baseball to do so. I'd still like to see a little better talent at evaluating and selecting players either via draft or via trade/FA.
I would think Abreu will be gone before the rebuild is done though. He'll be valuable to someone in the race next year or the year after and the Sox could get an overpay for him and fill one of those other holes. 1B/DH types are never difficult to find in FA and they're the least valuable by WAR so they're not outrageous in cost. Until then though he's a great mentor to the younger Latin players so I wouldn't be in a rush to deal him, but there will come a time. As far as infielders I was kind of surprised that neither Ademan or Peredes were insisted on by Hahn in Quintana deal, or maybe he did push and they compromised. I think both will be MLB players but they're 18 so whether they are starters or bench help I couldn't tell you at this point.
Theo offered Kyle instead of Cease but Hahn insisted on Cease. That may have hurt the back end of the deal. Not really sure.
Abreu will be at the end of his peak. That said, I keep him for an extension as a DH. His value as a mentor to the Latin players needs to go on much longer.
Don't forget about FA in terms of the White Sox adding value to the roster but my main concern is a lot of their hitting prospects are ranked high because of what they did pre minor league; not so much that they're tearing up baseball now. Collins isn't hitting like you'd like to see a college guy hit in A+.
What the Sox have proven is they can trade high value players for quality prospects. It's impressive what they got but they traded three of the most efficient players in baseball to do so. I'd still like to see a little better talent at evaluating and selecting players either via draft or via trade/FA.
If the Sox are missing a piece here or there come 2020, they will do what the Cubs did and sign guys like Zobrist, Heyward, Lester, etc.... And the good thing about having lots of pitching prospects is that they still have great trade value. I wouldn't worry about positions as that tends to work itself out, just collect assets and move them around when the time comes.
Aramis Ademan is having a great year. He's hitting .291/.367/.485 with 4 HRs and 10 SB's over 134 ABs. I think he may be in the top 100 headed into next year or by midseason next year. He was supposed to be a glove first SS. Scouting has his arm as average but he's probably going to stick at SS. Because of the weaker arm I think he'll have trouble moving into the top 50 or so prospects but I think a good potential future comp on him might be Nick Gordon.
Rucker is carving up A+ again. Throwing a 6 hit shut out through 5 with 0 walks and 7 k's. It's kind of late in the year for a promotion but jeez he seems to need one. Last 3 outings he's thrown 20 IP, given up 9 hits, 1 walk 0 ER and has k'd 24 batters. Pretty sure a 24:1 k:bb ratio might be good.
Rucker is carving up A+ again. Throwing a 6 hit shut out through 5 with 0 walks and 7 k's. It's kind of late in the year for a promotion but jeez he seems to need one. Last 3 outings he's thrown 20 IP, given up 9 hits, 1 walk 0 ER and has k'd 24 batters. Pretty sure a 24:1 k:bb ratio might be good.
Promoting Rucker just means someone gets bumped out of Tenn's rotation. As far as a promotion is concerned I really don't see any one ready.
Iowa:
Brooks: 5-7 6.14 ERA
Frankoff: 1-5 4.12 ERA
Perez: 5-7 4.98 ERA
Butler: 1-0 2.00 ERA
Tseng: 3-0 1.40 ERA
Kelly: 5-2 4.65 ERA
Tenn:
Morrison 1-8 4.99 ERA
Clifton: 5-5 4.00 ERA
Hedges: 7-5 3.75 ERA
Brett Anderson: 2-2 4.61 ERA
Azlolay: 0-1 2.70 ERA
Underwood: 9-4 5.01 ERA (in pen now)
Pugliese: 6-2 0.84 ERA (part time)
`Honestly AAA is not great. Getting Butler back and Tseng has made it respectable. Brooks is just filler and honestly a waste of roster space.
AA They need to cut Anderson. He is never going to pitch on the major league team. So all he is doing is blocking more deserving kids from getting his innings.
So I really don't see anyone that should bump Brooks out of Iowa's rotation. Underwood and Pugliese have already been bumped off in lieu of Hendricks and Anderson. If they promoted Rucker to AA to finish the season they would have to cut Anderson.
So I was trying to think of some comps for Rucker because generally 23 year olds are in AA or higher. I wasn't sure if he's just dominating guys he should because he's older than them. Anyways went through and found some decent MLB pitchers who were 23 and pitched in A+
Throwing the long list of players in a spoiler tag to keep post short.
Steven Matz - 69.1 IP with a 8.05 k/9 and a 2.73 bb/9 along with a 2.21/2.73 ERA/FIP and a 1.25 whip.
Jacob deGrom - He was actually 24 when pitching in A/A+. In 89.2 at A he had a 7.83 k/9 and a 1.41 bb/9 with a 2.51/2.78 ERA/FIP and a 1.01 whip. And at A+ that year he had 21.2 IP with a 7.48 k/9 and a 2.49 bb/9 a 2.08/3.30 ERA/FIP and a 0.92 whip. Mike Fiers - age 25 93.1 IP 9.06 k/9 and a 2.22 bb/9 a 3.47/3.34 ERA/FIP and a 1.08 whip
Sean Manaea - Didn't pitch a ton in his age 23 year but spent 19.2 innings at A+ for the Royals and 42.2 in AA for the A's post trade. In that 19 innings he had 10.07 k/9 and a 1.83 bb/9 with a 3.66/1.78 FIP and a 1.32 whip
Jesse Hahn - 67 IP 8.46/2.42 k/bb per 9 2.15/2.49 ERA/FIP 1.09 whip Andrew Triggs - 24 in A+ 60.1 IP 9.40/1.79 k/bb per 9 2.54/2.42 ERA/FIP 1.16 whip
Kendall Graveman - 96.2 IP 5.96/1.68 k/bb per 9 2.23/2.88 ERA/FIP 1.11 whip Daniel Gossett - 46.0 IP 10.37/2.54 k/bb 3.33/3.45 ERA/FIP 1.15 whip Marco Estrada - 58.1 IP 8.33/2.62 k/bb 4.94/3.88 ERA/FIP 1.44 whip
Joe Biagini - age 24 128.0 IP 7.24/3.23 k/bb 4.01/3.86 ERA/FIP 1.40 whip
J.A. Happ - 80 IP 8.66/2.14 k/bb 2.81/3.53 ERA/FIP 1.03 whip Mike Bolsinger - age 24 38.0 IP 11.61/3.08 k/bb 2.37/2.68 ERA/FIP 1.16 whip Jimmy Nelson - 81.1 IP 8.52/2.77 k/bb 2.21/3.09 ERA/FIP 1.08
Chase Anderson - looks like hew blew out his arm in 2011 in A+ as he only thre 13.1 IP of 13.50/0.68 k/bb 5.40/2.38 ERA/FIP 1.13 whip
Brent Suter - 124.0 IP 7.04/2.61 k/bb 3.63/3.77 ERA/FIP 1.30 whip Zack Godley - age 24 and 25 pitched 115.2 IP 10.1/2.8 k/bb 3.66 ERA 1.21 whip Corey Kluber - 109.0 IP 10.24/2.97 k/bb 4.54/3.73 ERA/FIP 1.34 whip Josh Tomlin - 102.2 IP 9.56/1.40 k/bb 2.98/3.26 ERA/FIP 0.95 whip
Mike Clevinger - including 23 innings at A in his age 23 year he was traded but put up 99.2 IP 9.0/3.9 bb/9 4.42 ERA 1.38 whip
Christian Bergman - age 24 162.2 IP 6.69/2.05 k/bb 3.65/4.34 ERA/FIP 1.22 whip
Sam Gaviglio - 39.2 IP 6.81/2.72 k/bb 2.72/3.37 ERA/FIP 1.03 whip Edinson Volquez - 35.1 IP 9.68/5.09 k/bb 7.13/4.97 ERA/FIP 1.33 whip
Tom Koehler - 34.2 IP 6.49/2.34 3.38/2.69 ERA/FIP 1.27 whip Seth Lugo - age 24 105.0 IP 9.77/3.26 4.11/3.91 ERA/FIP 1.31 whip
Wade Miley - 80.1 IP 5.60/4.15 3.25/4.07 ERA/FIP 1.47 whip
Clayton Richard - 161.1 IP 5.52/3.29 3.63/4.15 ERA/FIP 1.35 whip
Dinelson Lamet - 65 IP 7.48/3.60 2.35/4.24 ERA/FIP 1.26 whip A.J. Griffin - 70.2 IP 10.44/1.78 k/bb 3.57/3.78 ERA/FIP 1.10 whip Brian Johnson - 25.2 IP 11.57/2.45 k/bb 3.86/1.76 ERA/FIP 1.17 whip Steven Wright - 72.1 IP 7.59/2.12 k/bb 2.99/3.79 ERA/FIP 1.05 whip
Luis Castillo - 117.2 IP 6.96/1.38 k/bb 2.07/2.46 ERA/FIP 0.96 whip
Amir Garrett -140.1 IP 8.53/3.53 2.44/2.90 ERA/FIP 1.23 whip
Tyler Anderson -74.2 IP 7.59/2.89 3.25/4.87 ERA/FIP 1.15 whip Nathan Karns - age 24 71.2 IP 10.93/3.27 2.26/2.39 ERA/FIP 1.02 whip Matt Boyd - 90.2 10.22/1.99 k/bb 1.39/2.49 ERA/FIP 0.94 whip
Hector Santiago - 44.0 IP 8.80/2.86 3.68/4.50 ERA/FIP 1.18 whip
Dylan Covey - 140.1 IP 6.41/2.76 3.59/4.61 ERA/FIP 1.27 whip
So this is the list of guys who've started more than 20 innings in the majors this year and who were at least age 23 at A+ and not just rehabbing there. My first take away is that while low ERA's are common for pitchers of this age, it's not as common for high k rates. Guys in bold had fairly high k rates. Guys in green are more well known names. For example only 8 guys on this list had a k/9 over 10. Rucker between A/A+ this year is at 10.8 k/9 and 1.6 bb/9 over 72.2 IP with a 0.88 whip and a 1.86 ERA. So what stands out is he's not just pitched well. He's flat out dominated. Only guys on this list that were close to both his ERA and whip were Matt Boyd and deGrom.
Spoiler tagging long discussion of lessor known names for those who don't want to read that.
The deal on Boyd is he basically dominated the minors. He pitched 387.0 innings with a 9.0 k/9 and a 2.2 bb/9 to go along with his 2.49 ERA and 1.00 whip. That's the good news. The less good news is he's struggled in the majors thus far. He was part of the David Price trade which I think may have messed him up a bit. In the majors his walk rate has skyrocketed at least compared to his minor league numbers. In MLB he's got a 6.88 k/9 and a 3.08 bb/9 over 216.0 IP. His ERA/FIP is also not pretty at 5.63/5.20 and his whip is 1.50.
A.J. Griffin is also another interesting k/bb ratio comp. He wasn't quite as dominant as Boyd in the minors but he posted a 3.33 ERA over 321.1 IP with 8.8 k/9 1.8 bb/9 and a 1.06 whip. On the plus side, Griffin was actually quite good for 2 years with Oakland before I believe blowing out his arm. in 82.1 IP in 2012 he posted a 3.06/3.85 ERA/FIP and in 2013 over 200 innings he posted a 3.83/4.55 ERA/FIP. He hasn't been the same since that injury however.
Zack Godley was actually a cub and actually broke out with them in A+. Over 291.2 IP he had good numbers with a 2.96 ERA 9.0 k/9 and a 3.1 bb/9 with a 1.22 whip. Last year he was kinda crummy but he's been fantastic this year and his k/bb rate has largely mirrored his minor league numbers at 9.30/2.77 k/bb per 9. Think he was part of the Montero deal to Arizona.
Karns has maintained his k rate better than Boyd/Griffin. He's at 9.30 over 310.2 IP in the majors. However whip has killed him largely because he walks to many batters. He's still been a fairly average starter though with a 4.37/4.36 ERA/FIP. Brian Johnson I almost didn't include on here because it was a 25.2 IP sample and his other minor league stints aren't that reflective of a high k rate guy. He's been below 9 every other stint. Lugo is a similar story to Johnson. He was really good in A/A+ but he's not consistently shown a high k rate. Tomlin is also a similar story of a guy who peaked in A+. Same story for Gossett. Edinson Volquez is pretty well known so I don't need to talk too much about him. Mike Bolsinger has had solid k rates most places but A+ was clearly a peak. Most other places he's been around 8 k/9. Andrew Triggs was a reliever almost exclusively in the minors so while he did have good k rates that's kind of deceiving. He made 1 start in the minors. Oakland tried him as a MLB starter last year/this year.
That takes care of most of the less known names. Chase Anderson was a 9th round pick in 2009. Over 402.0 IP in the minors he posted a 3.40 ERA with 9.0 k/9 and a 2.3 bb/9 with a 1.17 whip. Kluber was a 4th round pick in 2007. Over 782.0 IP in the minors he had a 4.40 ERA with a 9.1 k/9 3.6 bb/9 and a 1.40 whip. Steven Wright was a 2nd round pick in 2006 and posted 987.0 IP 4.64 ERA 7.2 k/9 3.3 bb/9 1.33 whip in the minors. Jimmy Nelson was also a 2nd round pick in 2010 posting 563.1 IP with a 3.12 ERA 8.8 k/9 3.8 bb/9 1.27 whip. Marco Estrada was a 6th round pick in 2005 posting 532.0 IP in the minors with a 3.89 ERA 7.8 k/9 3.0 bb/9 and a 1.34 whip. Mike Fiers was a 22nd round pick in 2009 posting 483.1 IP in the minors with 3.15 ERA a 10.0 k/9 2.2 bb/9 and a 1.02 whip. Jacob deGrom was a 9th round pick in 2010 posting 323.1 IP with a 3.62 ERA and 7.4 k/9 2.3 bb/9 1.28 whip. Steven Matz was a 2nd round pick in 2009 posting 397.0 IP in the minors with a 2.40 ERA 9.4 k/9 2.9 bb/9 1.15 whip. Sean Manaea was a 1st round pick in 2013 posting a 3.65 ERA over 221.2 IP with 1.25 whip 3.5 bb/9 and 10.8 k/9.
Conclusions
Obviously I want to see more for Rucker before I go too far out on a ledge and make proclamations. However, thus far he's thrown 85.1 IP with a 1.58 ERA a 0.87 whip 1.5 bb/9 and 11.1 k/9. That's almost certainly going to fall some in AA/AAA. But even if you say he's a 9 k/9 2 bb/9 1-1.10 whip guy in AA/AAA that's pretty exciting. I feel pretty comfortable suggesting he's going to be a middle of the rotation starter. Mike Fiers might be a pretty good comp. as a guy who's been quietly really really good. And the thing with Friers was he really didn't get going until age 27 where he made his full season debut. Rucker is probably more a 25-26 year old debut guy if things go as well as you would suspect. And I would also argue there's a chance he's more than a middle rotation guy. deGrom and Kluber weren't really big time prospects. The scouting on Rucker is largely plus or possibly plus plus command. That sounds a lot like Hendricks and if we use him as a stand in here, he posted 460.2 IP in the minors with a 2.66 ERA and 1.06 whip 1.6 bb/9 and 7.6 k/9. Again you want to see more from Rucker but think you can make the argument he might be Hendricks with more deception.
He should be in AA based off of age and performance. They just need to dump Anderson. After that you would like to see either Clifton or Underwood promoted. But both have stalled this year. Hedges is just inning soak. Which is fine based off of his ERA at Tenn. Iowa ate him up so his celing is limited.
Tseng is proving that he is MLB quality. Didn't skip a beat.
He should be in AA based off of age and performance. They just need to dump Anderson. After that you would like to see either Clifton or Underwood promoted. But both have stalled this year. Hedges is just inning soak. Which is fine based off of his ERA at Tenn. Iowa ate him up so his celing is limited.
Tseng is proving that he is MLB quality. Didn't skip a beat.
