Cubs offseason needs/ Talk

[TL1961]

If the Cubs sign Correa they show they’re not a second tier team acting like they’re in a small market.

If they sign Swanson they show they’re unwilling to play with the big boys.

If they somehow sign neither no fan should consider attending games.

Time for some serious moves. Make a statement that you’re a force to be reckoned with.

If you can’t spend like cowtown st louis, pack it in.

 

[TL1961]

Long term I’m sure he’s not. Just wanted to hear how the glove is because if the glove is solid, I imagine he could play CF for a year since he’s young and playing CF in the minors

I don’t know that he’s expected on the mlb team to start the year. But I am eager for him to get there.

 

[Castor76]

If the Cubs sign Correa they show they’re not a second tier team acting like they’re in a small market.

If they sign Swanson they show they’re unwilling to play with the big boys.

If they somehow sign neither no fan should consider attending games.

Time for some serious moves. Make a statement that you’re a force to be reckoned with.

If you can’t spend like cowtown st louis, pack it in.

Exactly. This is put up or shut up time. At the least, make it known you went for the big names and just got out spent.

 

[CSF77]

I think it is fair to feel that the Cubs need to put up a competitive offer on Correa. The reality is he is going to get Lindor money. Don't go into it thinking that you can get a discount.

With Swanson I would get it if they need to acquire Senga. Senga and Swanson most likely can be had under cap.

Targeting Correa really puts cap into play and could end up making a weaker team due to putting all of the coins in one cup.

So if history tells us anything. Jed will spread around.

He needs another proven lefty in the pen.
He needs a catcher
He needs a RH hitter that can ease Mervis into MLB play.

So that is most likely going to eat up 15M. They should have 45M to work with. Contracts and tax are AAV. So signing Correa will cause a ping. But Hendricks, Heyward etc fall off allowing year 2 to reset (if they choose)

TBH if they want to be taken seriously.

Sign Correa and Rodon. Then trade for Murphy. Give Oak pretty much what they want. Cubs have the type of players that they desire. MLB exposure with control. Steele, Thompson, Alozay Morel, etc. So in theory going this route will cost 60-65M AAV. Rodon wants 7. 6 and a mutual gets it done.

Cubs have a legit ace. A starting Catcher. A All Star SS. Rotation Rodon, Stroman, Hendricks, Tallion, Wesneski.

Following year they drop around 90M if they chose to cut opts. Most teams/players do cut opts tbh.

So all reality Jed could take a tax hit next year and easily reset.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

I was pretty big on Correa, bogaerts or turner over Swanson. But over the last couple days I've shifted a bit. Correa is a much more impactful player in my opinion, but he's had back issues a couple times at 28 and is about to get a 12 or 13 year contract. I'll be all in if that's what they do, but Swanson makes more sense long term as he's been extremely durable.

 

[TL1961]

I won't go so far as to say "Swanson's just a guy", but to be honest, it feels pretty close to that for me.

 

[Hawkeye OG]

I want the cubs to sigh Correa or Swanson. I think it’s a signal of the kick off for the next run at a World Series as they bring up prospects from the minors like Davis, PCA, Mervis, Alcantara, etc

But, during this last season I feel like the sentiment around here was it’s going to be 2024-2025-2026 before the cubs can really compete. So I ask. Why all of the sudden does everyone think they have to make a huge splash signing? Is it FOMO? Don’t get me wrong, I’d like to see if but if they miss They have time to make moves before the core prospects make it to the majors

 

[TL1961]

I don't want a move this off season because it makes them contenders in 2023. I want it to contend in 2024 and beyond.

They can wait to make a splash - everybody seems to think they'll be in on Ohtani - but the FA class is not always the same. You can't just sit back and decide which year you'll be able to sign the right guy.

The main thing is, if they go into 2023 having not acquired anyone significant, they send a clear message that the "waves and waves" of talent and "big market" talk was all bullshit.

Three or four years ago, the Cardinals were behind the Cubs, looking old, and the the Cubs were the best of the Central. Since that time, the Cards acquired two of the best players in the game, locked them up for years, and still are able to sign away the Cubs' FA.

It was one thing when it was NYY, then Boston, then LAA with no limit on what they could and would spend. But now SD and Philly do so too. And the Mets. Meanwhile, we wait to see if the Cubs are willing to outbid San Fran for Correa.

I am not advocating for reckless spending. And I know a big contract will look worse at the end. But this is the game right now. You're not going to Billy Beane your way to a WS. You're either serious about actually contending, or you're not.

And to me, with fan backlash at the gate and affecting Marquee's ratings to the point the Cubs literally lowered prices, this is the off season they need to show they're committed if they want us to be.

The 2016 WS was the result of work in the off season prior to 2015, and even then the WS came a little earlier than they were expected to be real contenders. Waiting another year to say "we want to give it a shot to contend in 2027" will not sell.

I am encouraged by the prospects they have, and I have no issue with the approach they took trading guys away in 2021. That was the right thing to do. But they let Schwarber go and traded Darvish to save $ while they still had the core players. That's not a good look. The KMart days need to be over. They need marketable stars. Actual star players on the field. Correa is no sure thing to be great for 11 years, but he is solid offensively and defensively and the fit is ideal. They passed a year ago because "it was too early", and now prices have gone up, as they will continue to do. It can't be "too early" again.

If not now, when?

 

[Probie2429]

It’s too early to anchor this team with a 300 million dollar contract. Jed knows this and if they end up doing so you move the team into win now mode which will ensure they are a middling playoff team. Honestly I think Jed was hoping for a top 3 pick last year, but the roster overachieved considerably.

 

[TL1961]

I get that, ideally, the big signing may be a year ahead of the schedule the prospects are on. But they can't control that. The Cubs can't expect a FA pool to always be the right players at the right time.

Certainly the Ohtani free agency - assuming he makes it to FA - hits at a good time, so theoretically they could wait for that. But they can't wait for one specific guy as an excuse to do nothing now, and then follow it up with "the cost was too high". So if you're "saving" for him now, you better spend it when the time comes.

He surely would look like a perfect guy to get, but there are a lot of other teams feeling the same way. And those other teams have shown a willingness to actually spend the $ when the time comes.

And if Correa is too expensive, wait until you see the cost of Ohtani.

 

[Probie2429]

It has nothing to do with cost just timing.

 

[Probie2429]

Just look at the contracts Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, and Schwarber got. I’d say the only one playing at contract level is Schwarber and that is after he had to bet on himself. Bryant and Baez have been awful. Bryant’s health issues are a big concern going forward. Rizzo has the benefit of Judge and Stanton being in the same line up and he could still only muster a 220 average. Big contracts rarely pan out the way people think.

 

[TL1961]

Just look at the contracts Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, and Schwarber got. I’d say the only one playing at contract level is Schwarber and that is after he had to bet on himself. Bryant and Baez have been awful. Bryant’s health issues are a big concern going forward. Rizzo has the benefit of Judge and Stanton being in the same line up and he could still only muster a 220 average. Big contracts rarely pan out the way people think.

I pointed out I was on board with what they did with Bryant Baez and Rizzo.

 

[czman]

I kind of hate the idea of signing a player as some sort of signal. The goal is to build a good team that can sustain long term success.

Signing a 28 year old to a 12 year deal is a horrible idea. There are so few 10 year deals that work out. 12 years, half of that will likely be bar years.

Cubs should really be looking at 3-5 year deals and then roll over players. If you want long term success you have to bring guys up and get the 6 years of control. You need your real horses to come from within.
Lester was a 7 year deal. 7 or 8 is really the max a team should do.

 

[CSF77]

Teams sign position players longer term to drop the AAV. don't worry about the tail end. Teams trade and eat all of the time and still keep contending.

Pitchers in general don't get Guaranteed deals past 37. Verlander and Max are exception not norm.

So in general teams will sign long term to keep a high total number but lower the installments. Pitchers tend to be shorter deals with bigger AAV. Injury and wear and tear play into this. 30-34 a pitcher may lose 1-2 mph. After 35 most become off speed pitchers. Verlander and Max are exceptions

So Rodon has low miles on his arm.. so in theory he should hold up til 37. After pass.

 

[TL1961]

I’m not suggesting they sign a bad player as a signal. I’m suggesting they sign a player who is a perfect fit and send a signal. They absolutely need to say something to their fans that they actually are serious about being a real major league franchise instead of saying that “we won one for you now go **** off.”

I believe most GM’s would agree that they would rather sign a guy to a seven-year deal than a 12 year deal but that’s a moot point. If other teams are willing to sign 10 and 11 year deals that’s what Correa is going to be looking for. The market dictates what you’re going to have to do and the length of term you’re going to have to give.

He’s not gonna go sign for 7 years and then try to make up that value per year with a contract starting at age 35.

 

[Diehardfan]

Right now....I hope they just pass and just continue to develop. I liked Bogearts becuase I was hoping they'd talk him into noving to 3B. Correa's contract will turn into a noose for anyone that signs him....Im sure his return would be better than Heyward's was but in the long term (12 yrs) it will be just as devastating a contract. Sorry, but I don't think Swanson should be lumped in with these guys...good player, yes...premium player...I don't think so. I like him but Rodon is looking for 7 years....with his injury history, you could easily be paying a 7 year investment to a 2-3 year player.

 

[CSF77]

I’m not suggesting they sign a bad player as a signal. I’m suggesting they sign a player who is a perfect fit and send a signal. They absolutely need to say something to their fans that they actually are serious about being a real major league franchise instead of saying that “we won one for you now go **** off.”

I believe most GM’s would agree that they would rather sign a guy to a seven-year deal than a 12 year deal but that’s a moot point. If other teams are willing to sign 10 and 11 year deals that’s what Correa is going to be looking for. The market dictates what you’re going to have to do and the length of term you’re going to have to give.

He’s not gonna go sign for 7 years and then try to make up that value per year with a contract starting at age 35.

Correa is a statement deal. It says to the market that the Ricketts can and will pay top.

Swanson is a value deal. He will be solid cash spent and provide stability to a vital position

Swanson and Correa both have won rings. So that is a non factor. Both were a cog vs the driving force to those rings

So IMO you are not wrong doing either. The only wrong here is not being competitive. I get it if SF over pays and Jed stuck to his guns at 300M. He comes in with 250M he should have never started the process.

 

[Castor76]

Another thing to consider trying to make a big signing this year is just look at what's available next season. With the potential 2023-24 FA class currently projected, Ohtani is the top but there aren't many others to even consider. You have Devers and possibly Machado at 3B. Bellinger and Happ are Cub FA in the outfield that at least one would be pushed out hopefully by younger talent. It's sort of like an NFL draft where you have a bunch of coveted QBs in one year's draft, almost none the next, and then what looks to be a big crop the year after. You either take a stab a year early or hope you can hold out the extra year.

I miss any real gems? Probable, But look for yourself, please. 2023-24 MLB Free Agents

 

[TL1961]

Correa is a statement deal. It says to the market that the Ricketts can and will pay top.

Swanson is a value deal. He will be solid cash spent and provide stability to a vital position

Swanson and Correa both have won rings. So that is a non factor. Both were a cog vs the driving force to those rings

So IMO you are not wrong doing either. The only wrong here is not being competitive. I get it if SF over pays and Jed stuck to his guns at 300M. He comes in with 250M he should have never started the process.

I get that you can't spend unlimited amounts, but you have to be able to spend with these other teams if you're the Chicago Cubs.

Dansby Swanson doesn't move the needle. It seems signing him for less to be just a smidge better than what every other SS is would be a waste.

Some are leery of a 12 year deal and I absolutely get that. But any long term contract will look worse at the end. But is the alternative to wait 10 years until those teams can't spend, and "pounce" on a new FA in 2032? No thanks.

I get that there are points in the cycle where it makes more sense than other times. But now actually is that time.

As you said, they need to signal that the Cubs are in this toe to toe with other teams. How do you get any FA without overpaying if they see you're not intent on actually contending?