Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[beckdawg]

I'm honestly not that interested in the typical Schwarber debate but I did want to make one comment. I am not entirely sure why people are just assuming Schwarber is always going to be a high k rate guy. I mean clearly he was last year. So I get that. But if the thought process is you get better going from prospect to pro, Schwarber wasn't a high k rate guy in college or the minors. In college his freshmen year he had 24 k's in 270(8.8% k rate), his soph year 37 in 281(13.2%), his JR year 30 k's in 280 PAs(10.7%). In the minors he had 141 k's in 665 PAs(21.2%) and I think you can argue as quickly as he was rushed through the minors he never really settled in at a level that might also be a bit higher than you normally would expect.

Long story short I don't particularly expect him always to be a 30% k rate guy. I think like Rizzo he needs to adjust to MLB pitching. As an example here, Rizzo's first2 seasons in the majors he had 108 k's in 521 PAs(20.7%). The last 4 years he had 419 k's in 2684(15.6%). And I think that with Schwarber if and when he does figure out mlb pitching the k rate gap will close more because he has more room to grow. Rizzo really wasn't going higher than 12-15% realistically. But as mentioned above Schwarber going 30% to 20% or there abouts isn't that unrealistic when you consider the hitter he was in college and the minors.

If you want to argue Schwarber is what he is and wont get better fine but I don't particularly think that's compelling. Think he has a lot of room to improve on things.

 

[brett05]

In "not great for Otani" news, the Mariners traded some AAA closer to the White Sox for more international signing bonus pool money.

Very nice deal for the White Sox. From what I read thye traded away dollars they could not use for a guy that if Don can continue to work his magic is a 104 MPH flame thrower.

 

[Omeletpants]

I'm honestly not that interested in the typical Schwarber debate but I did want to make one comment. I am not entirely sure why people are just assuming Schwarber is always going to be a high k rate guy. I mean clearly he was last year. So I get that. But if the thought process is you get better going from prospect to pro, Schwarber wasn't a high k rate guy in college or the minors. In college his freshmen year he had 24 k's in 270(8.8% k rate), his soph year 37 in 281(13.2%), his JR year 30 k's in 280 PAs(10.7%). In the minors he had 141 k's in 665 PAs(21.2%) and I think you can argue as quickly as he was rushed through the minors he never really settled in at a level that might also be a bit higher than you normally would expect.

Long story short I don't particularly expect him always to be a 30% k rate guy. I think like Rizzo he needs to adjust to MLB pitching. As an example here, Rizzo's first2 seasons in the majors he had 108 k's in 521 PAs(20.7%). The last 4 years he had 419 k's in 2684(15.6%). And I think that with Schwarber if and when he does figure out mlb pitching the k rate gap will close more because he has more room to grow. Rizzo really wasn't going higher than 12-15% realistically. But as mentioned above Schwarber going 30% to 20% or there abouts isn't that unrealistic when you consider the hitter he was in college and the minors.

If you want to argue Schwarber is what he is and wont get better fine but I don't particularly think that's compelling. Think he has a lot of room to improve on things.

Schwarber dominated in the minors but that doesnt mean he will do it in the majors. Happens all the time. Against hard throwers, he has a hard time catching up to the ball. Most importantly is his obstinate attitude about pulling everything. That's fine if you are a .300 hitter and can find gaps. But he was the worst hittter in baseball much of the year and he STILL tried to pull everything. That's an ego and selfishness thing. Our shitty hitting coach couldnt convince him to do otherwise, so the majority was on Schwarber.

 

[CSF77]

Well saw that Jurickson Profar is on the market. Now I did look at his BB rate and it has been pretty close to 10%. His issue has been playing time for the most part. He is only 24 still and honestly a full time gig may turn it around for him. Seeing how he was the #1 ranked prospect at one point his issues were not a talent thing.

Now I would almost do a even Schwarber/Profar swap. Lead off with Jurickson at 2B and start Happ in LF.

Baez becomes the primary UI.

Now it is sketchy I know this but my gut feel is Profar is not this dud. I believe he never got a opertunity and the Rangers miss played by not trading him.

 

[beckdawg]

Schwarber dominated in the minors but that doesnt mean he will do it in the majors. Happens all the time. Against hard throwers, he has a hard time catching up to the ball. Most importantly is his obstinate attitude about pulling everything. That's fine if you are a .300 hitter and can find gaps. But he was the worst hittter in baseball much of the year and he STILL tried to pull everything. That's an ego and selfishness thing. Our shitty hitting coach couldnt convince him to do otherwise, so the majority was on Schwarber.

I never said he's guaranteed to do it in the majors. Literally the only point I made was that his k rate in the majors isn't reflective of the hitter he was prior to the majors which clearly suggests it's something that can and will improve. Obviously Schwarber had other issues as well last year. I'll let others debate that because frankly I'm not a hitting coach. All I'm saying is players don't go from mid teen k rates in college and league average k rates in the minors to 30%+ k rates long term. K rates from the minors to the majors over a length of time are pretty similar for basically every hitter. With regard to Schwarber I think what we're seeing is a guy who clearly was good enough to dominate minor league pitching that couldn't challenge him. In the majors pitchers are challenging him and he has some obvious issues in his approach he needs to fix. I think that whatever those issues exist are causing the K rate problem not the other way around. That's seemingly different from a guy like say Baez where he's always had a high K rate and his swing and miss issues seem to be his hang up.

 

[beckdawg]

Well saw that Jurickson Profar is on the market. Now I did look at his BB rate and it has been pretty close to 10%. His issue has been playing time for the most part. He is only 24 still and honestly a full time gig may turn it around for him. Seeing how he was the #1 ranked prospect at one point his issues were not a talent thing.

Now I would almost do a even Schwarber/Profar swap. Lead off with Jurickson at 2B and start Happ in LF.

Baez becomes the primary UI.

Now it is sketchy I know this but my gut feel is Profar is not this dud. I believe he never got a opertunity and the Rangers miss played by not trading him.

Profar hit .172/.294/.207 last year and you want to trade Schwarber for him? Year prior to that he hit .239/.321/.338. Not sure why you suddenly think he's a solution.

 

[CSF77]

Profar hit .172/.294/.207 last year and you want to trade Schwarber for him? Year prior to that he hit .239/.321/.338. Not sure why you suddenly think he's a solution.

First thing is I said it felt sketchy

2nd thing: was the #1. So talent was not the issue

3rd was no opertunity. I believe he was going to get a shot and hit the DL. Oder got that opertunity and ran with it

4th: Rangers I believe fucked up that situation. Theo handled the over flow better buy trading Gaybar early when his value peaked. Rangers played games with the #1 prospect until his value sank


Now if you can data mine this and show that he is a bust because he is not good enough then sure ai can follow that line. But posting a line when it is for the most part off the bench in a sub capacity I’m not following.

 

[DanTown]

I never said he's guaranteed to do it in the majors. Literally the only point I made was that his k rate in the majors isn't reflective of the hitter he was prior to the majors which clearly suggests it's something that can and will improve. Obviously Schwarber had other issues as well last year. I'll let others debate that because frankly I'm not a hitting coach. All I'm saying is players don't go from mid teen k rates in college and league average k rates in the minors to 30%+ k rates long term. K rates from the minors to the majors over a length of time are pretty similar for basically every hitter. With regard to Schwarber I think what we're seeing is a guy who clearly was good enough to dominate minor league pitching that couldn't challenge him. In the majors pitchers are challenging him and he has some obvious issues in his approach he needs to fix. I think that whatever those issues exist are causing the K rate problem not the other way around. That's seemingly different from a guy like say Baez where he's always had a high K rate and his swing and miss issues seem to be his hang up.

Chris Davis would vehemently disagree with the assertion that K rate corrects. As does every MLB hitter.

Obviously guys will strike out the higher the ladder they move up but the question is WHY. Does the guy have a hole in his swing that MLB pitchers can repeat easier? Does he struggle with velocity? Does he struggle with heavy break? I won't rehash an argument to Schwarber but the idea that he'll just "revert to his previous levels of K rate" is obviously wrong.

Kyle struck out a lot. We all know this and some of us disagree on why but to say "he'll correct it because stats say so" is ridiculous.

 

[DanTown]

First thing is I said it felt sketchy

2nd thing: was the #1. So talent was not the issue

3rd was no opertunity. I believe he was going to get a shot and hit the DL. Oder got that opertunity and ran with it

4th: Rangers I believe fucked up that situation. Theo handled the over flow better buy trading Gaybar early when his value peaked. Rangers played games with the #1 prospect until his value sank


Now if you can data mine this and show that he is a bust because he is not good enough then sure ai can follow that line. But posting a line when it is for the most part off the bench in a sub capacity I’m not following.

I would entertain the idea but if your assertion is that he struggled with the competition and the lack of consistency that came with playing in Texas why would that problem fix itself here with a manager who would constantly be moving him in and out of the lineup and when he'd be competing with four guys a day (Happ, Zobrist, LaStella, Baez) who play his position?

 

[DanTown]

Another "Cobb/Cubs interested" article. Either this means heavy smoke and a contract offer or the Cubs are building a market for Cobb.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports...-could-be-key-to-filling-cubs-pitching-needs/

 

[beckdawg]

First thing is I said it felt sketchy

2nd thing: was the #1. So talent was not the issue

3rd was no opertunity. I believe he was going to get a shot and hit the DL. Oder got that opertunity and ran with it

4th: Rangers I believe fucked up that situation. Theo handled the over flow better buy trading Gaybar early when his value peaked. Rangers played games with the #1 prospect until his value sank


Now if you can data mine this and show that he is a bust because he is not good enough then sure ai can follow that line. But posting a line when it is for the most part off the bench in a sub capacity I’m not following.

Talent was the issue. If he were worthy of playing time he would have gotten playing time. As for no opportunity the guy has 718 PAs in the majors and has hit .229/.309/.329. You want to trade a PTBNL and give him a shot in camp to "change scene"? Fine. But you're handing not only lead off but a starting position at 2B where the cubs have multiple options already to a career .229 hitter with a .309 OBP. Just because he was once a #1 prospect doesn't mean anything. Ok so he hit in AAA last year but it was the PCL and everyone hits in the PCL. You're talking about a guy who has very low power and who hasn't hit for a high average even in the minors. He's hit .279 in the minors over 2151 PAs and texas' farm teams all play in hitter friendly environments.

I wouldn't give up anything of value for him. You want to trade Zagunis and hope for the best fine but the guys not worth any real prospect in his current form.

 

[CSF77]

I would entertain the idea but if your assertion is that he struggled with the competition and the lack of consistency that came with playing in Texas why would that problem fix itself here with a manager who would constantly be moving him in and out of the lineup and when he'd be competing with four guys a day (Happ, Zobrist, LaStella, Baez) who play his position?

Because Theo and Jed have made it a issue to have a stable lead off situation. And if they did trade a guy that they felt highly about for a potential answer. And if Joe keeps on playing the chaos theory card and continues the instability I believe they may part ways with him early.

The reality is Joe has been stable when he has the right tools to work with. He did this with Fowler. Right now he doesn’t have the right tool and last year he was playing the match up game.

Now there are a few ways to fix this:

1. Resign Jay and do a strait platoon with Almora in CF. Not really a reach here and maybe the end result.

2. Trade for a known. But the pipe is dry.

3. Sign a F/A. Market is pretty sketchy. Better used to solve the 4 and the BP issues

4. Flip bad result players. Not really flipping bad $ contracts. Or bad players. Just bad situations.

Now I would ball Profar in with Schwarber. Play every day as lead off. If he fails then find another solution.

I felt it was sketchy because Theo and Jed love Kyle and trading him for a non core pitcher would be a red flag unless it just works out. Too much risk IMO

 

[beckdawg]

Chris Davis would vehemently disagree with the assertion that K rate corrects. As does every MLB hitter.

Obviously guys will strike out the higher the ladder they move up but the question is WHY. Does the guy have a hole in his swing that MLB pitchers can repeat easier? Does he struggle with velocity? Does he struggle with heavy break? I won't rehash an argument to Schwarber but the idea that he'll just "revert to his previous levels of K rate" is obviously wrong.

Kyle struck out a lot. We all know this and some of us disagree on why but to say "he'll correct it because stats say so" is ridiculous.

What are you even talking about? Chris Davis had a 24.6% K rate throughout the minors. In 418 PAs at A+ he had a k rate of 29.4%. At AAA at age 25 over 210 PAs he had a 27.6% K rate. He's shown himself to be a high K rate guy. Ok you want to argue the issue compounded in the majors fine but that's not exactly surprising. And frankly my point was never that Schwarber wouldn't be marginally worse than his ~20% k rate in the minors. My point was he's not a guy that is likely to K at a 30%+ rate.

 

[DanTown]

Because Theo and Jed have made it a issue to have a stable lead off situation. And if they did trade a guy that they felt highly about for a potential answer. And if Joe keeps on playing the chaos theory card and continues the instability I believe they may part ways with him early.

The reality is Joe has been stable when he has the right tools to work with. He did this with Fowler. Right now he doesn’t have the right tool and last year he was playing the match up game.

Now there are a few ways to fix this:

1. Resign Jay and do a strait platoon with Almora in CF. Not really a reach here and maybe the end result.

2. Trade for a known. But the pipe is dry.

3. Sign a F/A. Market is pretty sketchy. Better used to solve the 4 and the BP issues

4. Flip bad result players. Not really flipping bad $ contracts. Or bad players. Just bad situations.

Now I would ball Profar in with Schwarber. Play every day as lead off. If he fails then find another solution.

I felt it was sketchy because Theo and Jed love Kyle and trading him for a non core pitcher would be a red flag unless it just works out. Too much risk IMO

But he has a career .309 OBP in a large sample; if you feel he’s a potential lead off guy great. But trading Kyle to get him is insane considering what’s he’s done in the majors

 

[DanTown]

What are you even talking about? Chris Davis had a 24.6% K rate throughout the minors. In 418 PAs at A+ he had a k rate of 29.4%. At AAA at age 25 over 210 PAs he had a 27.6% K rate. He's shown himself to be a high K rate guy. Ok you want to argue the issue compounded in the majors fine but that's not exactly surprising. And frankly my point was never that Schwarber wouldn't be marginally worse than his ~20% k rate in the minors. My point was he's not a guy that is likely to K at a 30%+ rate.

Chris Davis was about 22-23% the year before he made the majors.

Soler had low K rates. Bryant has actually improved his.

Jarrod Saltamachia was a left handed / top pick / C-OF who never got better at K rate though he never had that problems in the minors (out of HS no less).

Please don’t make me research more players who went the opposite way of their AA/AAA stats. Because I’m not arguing Kyle won’t get better but he CLEARLY has to get better. It won’t just happen.

 

[CSF77]

But he has a career .309 OBP in a large sample; if you feel he’s a potential lead off guy great. But trading Kyle to get him is insane considering what’s he’s done in the majors

Yanks were looking at him with their excess pitching.

 

[beckdawg]

Chris Davis was about 22-23% the year before he made the majors.

Soler had low K rates. Bryant has actually improved his.

Jarrod Saltamachia was a left handed / top pick / C-OF who never got better at K rate though he never had that problems in the minors (out of HS no less).

Please don’t make me research more players who went the opposite way of their AA/AAA stats. Because I’m not arguing Kyle won’t get better but he CLEARLY has to get better. It won’t just happen.

And Davis had shown that K's were an issue for him well prior to the majors. I mean look I'm not saying a guy who has a 20% k rate in the minors can't/wont go to 25%-ish in the majors once he settles in. I'm saying it's incredibly rare for someone like that to go from 20% to well over 30%. Soler had shown himself to be ~20-21%. His career rate is at 28.2% in the majors which is slightly over 5% but I also think that if he survives another 3-5 years in the majors that comes down to say 25% and I think that's a conservative number. Like wise if you wanna say going forward Schwarber assuming he makes it in the majors is a 25% k rate guy I'm not really going to quibble with that argument. I think he'll be better than that but I'm not going to die on that hill so to speak.

My entire point is people are already assuming that Schwarber is Adam Dunn or whatever terrible 3 true outcome defender you want to replace him with. And based on his history he's not been that guy. If you wanna make the case he's Jay Bruce(23.7% career rate) or a little worse than that fine. You wanna make the case he's Giancarlo Stanton simply in terms of bb/k rate power and nothing else(11.8%/27.7% .286 ISO) ok but I'd also point out that Stanton had a 26.4% K rate in the minors.

People who have high k rates in the majors generally are either players who just can't hack in in the majors(might be the case with Soler) or are guys who have a history with K's. I mentioned Stanton already. You look at Chris Carter and he had a 23.8% k rate in the minors. Pedro Alvarez had a 24% k rate in the minors. Mark Reynolds had a 23.2% k rate in the minors. Russell Branyan had a 31.7% k rate in the minors. Miguel Sano had a 26% k rate in the minors. Aaron Judge was 24.6% in the minors. Mike Napoli was 25.9% in the minors. Joey Gallo was 34.6% in the minors. I mean I think you get the picture. Players who typically strike out a boat load are guys who show that in the minors. Can you cite individual cases where that may not be true? Maybe but generally speaking there's a strong correlation between what you do in the minors in terms of K rate and what you do in the majors. If it's below average there then you can damn sure bet it's going to be an issue in the majors.

And I'll also point to this. Schwarber has a swinging strike rate of 13.0% on his career. Kris Bryant's career swinging strike rate is 13.2%. To be fair, it was a fair bit better in 2017 but year 1 he was 16.5%, year two he was 13.0% and this year he was 10.0%. In other words, Schwarber isn't any worse swinging and missing at pitches than Bryant. Schwarber's Z-Swing%(swings at strikes) is 62.5%. Bryant's is 72.8%. Schwarber's O-Swing%(out of zone) is 30.2% to Bryant's 29.4%. It's pretty clear what's going on there. Schwarber is choosing not to swing at some pitches in the zone that Bryant swings at. Schwarber's contact on pitches in the zone is 77.6% to Bryant's 82.6%.

My takeaway from that is that Schwarber has areas of the strike zone he simply can't cover as well as Bryant right now not that Schwarber is some free swinging slugger. And that goes back to my point that those issues are causing the K's not the other way around. If he fixes that then I'm going to strongly bet he's under 25% k rate.

 

[beckdawg]

And to clarify why ^ is important with regard to Schwarber, Schwarber murders pitches he can handle. His career .249 ISO is better than an MVP caliber bat in Bryant(.240). There's a big distinction between the kind of K's Schwarber has and the kind of K's Baez has(17.1% career swinging strike rate). Schwarber seems to have zones he just can't cover right now with his approach which given his low k rate in college/minors make sense. College/Minor pitching can't often hit corners as well as MLB pitching. I'm not a hitting coach so i'm not going to sit here and tell you what Schwarber needs to change about his swing in order to fix those areas he can't cover.

Regardless, assuming Schwarber does fix or at least lessen the issues he presently has, when he makes contact with balls he does damage and he's not missing them because he's fooled by the pitch. Often he's just not swinging likely because he knows he can't do anything with where the strike is thrown. With regard to Rizzo, he simply had to move closer to the plate to solve a number of his issues. Like I said I'm not a hitting coach so I'm not going to even bother guessing at ways to fix Schwarber's swing. All I'm saying is I think it's a fixable issue(k's) and that if/when he does he's a very dangerous bat.

 

[Omeletpants]

Yet, no one acknowlegdes Schwarbers refusal to go with the pitch and pull everything into shifts

 

[beckdawg]

Yet, no one acknowlegdes Schwarbers refusal to go with the pitch and pull everything into shifts

I mean isn't that exactly what I'm talking about? My point is that Schwarber isn't a free swinger the way that say Baez is and that Schwarber's strikeouts are a result of his approach. I'm not much of an expert on swing mechanics here but I have to imagine if you're trying to pull everything as you're suggesting that's going to leave you open down and away because that's the hardest area of the plate for you to reach. And if that assumption is right, it's not really surprising he avoids swinging there. If you look at his swing heat map the only areas he's below 50% are super inside which is unsurprising and down and away.

Presumably if he can find a way to take those down and away pitches to LF that solves the "hole" in his swing as it were.