I only brought up K rate cause you did..
I obviously see Cobb being a lot better pitcher then you..
So..
I see him being more of a guy who can help them win now and be a fixture in rotation for next 4 to 5 yrs and be very productive to where he can be at least a 3 in rotation...
I guess we'll see
Im not big on MLB draft picks, unless their first rounders..
Most those guys take 4+ plus years before they get on the MLB map..
Their important and all to build up your system, but if were talking about 1 pick that not a 1st rounder..
I personally don't think it that big a deal
We can agree to disagree here on Cobb
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Couple of things... first on the draft pick it's not just about the pick. It's about the slot money that comes with the pick. That allows you to get more creative with how you draft. often times you'll sign a guy who's a 1st round talent in the 4th-5th round.
As for Cobb being a mainstay, if you're belief is he is what he was before the injury I think that's a mistake. Before he got injured he threw 3 pitches in a fastball curve and a change up. The gist was depending on the year the fastball and curve were between slightly below average to slightly above average. His change up was his true out pitch. To put this into context, w(pitch type)/C is a measure of runs above average per 100 pitches. The highest value he ever had on his fastball was 0.49. Generally he was more in the -0.5 range. On his curve the highest value he ever had was 0.52(pre-injury that is) but generally was in the -0.2-0.2 range or roughly average. The years before he got hurt his change up was 1.42, 1.70, 1.31, and 2.23 the final year before getting hurt. The last two seasons his change up has been -0.24 and -1.25.
So when you talk about why he's not striking guys out it's not just because he's coming back from injury. He's basically a 2 pitch pitcher now. That also explains why he gets hit so hard. If you want to believe the change up comes back fine but it's entirely likely he wont get it back as well. I don't know the specifics of his particular version of the change up but if it no longer dives as much or whatever it makes him an entirely different pitcher. And the thing is Hickey basically acknowledged this.
What he did with basically two pitches in the American League East last year was remarkable, incredible really. It’s such a testament to his competitiveness that he basically did it with a fastball and a curveball. He did use the changeup on occasion, but it was not very effective at all, and what he did, like I said earlier, was remarkable.
Now it's one thing if you're throwing Mariano Rivera's cutter and it's that amazing of a pitch. But Cobb's FB/CU combo has never been dominating. Even last year when Hickey is quoting it as "remarkable," the value of his fastball was 0.48 and the value on his curve was 0.62. I just don't see that being worth a 3-4 year deal. Like if someone gives him a 2 year deal or whatever fine though 2 year deals are rarely for more than $15 mil and the QO I believe is like $18 mil so presumably he would accept it if he were only going to get ~$20 mil over 2 years.
I brought up Chacin. Do you know why? The top 5 sliders by value last year were Scherzer(3.33), Chacin(2.19), Carlos Carrasco(2.12), Kershaw(1.97) and Dylan Bundy(1.94). It's a wipe out pitch by any definition. And it's not like he rarely used it. Roughly 1/3 of his pitches were sliders. About 5% were curves 5% were change ups and the other 55% or so were fastballs. His curve was above average(0.35). His change up was garbage last year(-2.04) though on his career it's much better at -0.27. His fastball(believe mostly 2 seam/sinker) is slightly below average at -0.43 though given sinkers tend to be pitch to contact that's not all that surprising.
I'm not saying with a little tinkering that Chacin is going to be Scherzer/Kershaw. Both of them have at least 2 out pitches(kershaw has 3). But I do think if they were to work on his sequencing a little more his fastball might play up and he could easily be a mid 3 ERA or better type. And worst case if you say Tseng or someone else beats him out for a job I think at the very least he could potentially end up being an impact reliever with that slider of his.
With Cobb my issue basically comes down to this. You're buying him based on last year where he had 2 pitches neither of which was particularly dominant. And based on the rumors you're not just buying him for 1-2 years. You're buying him for 3-4. What happens on days when his curve just isn't working? If he doesn't have a change up that can get him through those days he's going to get brutally lit up. And the nightmare is that 2017 was best case. In 2016 he had 5 starts and a 8.59 ERA. What happens if 2017 was a mirage and you give him 4 years? On the flip side, let's say his change up does come back and you get best case. You're still talking about a 3.43 FIP for the years prior to him being hurt which is basically what you're paying him as. The obvious difference is that you're paying him based on what he was before getting hurt not paying him on what he was this year.
That in essence is my problem. You're gambling and leaving yourself few outs. And I'm not even saying you should never gamble on players. But the biggest problem I have is that he probably gets 4 years. That's a giant fucking gamble on someone who could very easily have his numbers totally tank if he were either just lucky with BABIP or if people start identifying he really only has the 2 pitches. And then when you tack on the fact you're giving up draft pick(mostly the slot money i care about) and the IFA money(care about this a lot more given the cubs need young talent and finally can spend in a class with a 21 year old cuban CF who looks REALLY interesting and a 15 year old cuban pitcher who throws 95). I just struggle to get behind the idea of signing him.
And I get that Hickey has spoken well of him but what is he going to do, talk shit about him? If Hickey is as good as reported I want to see what changes he can make in a guy who has dominating stuff. Like if he got that out of Cobb what could he get out of someone with a true wipe out pitch? Think with cobb there's just not much left to milk out of him and what appeared to be there in 2017 may just be an illusion. He's just too risky for me to consider investing 3-4 years in.
