Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[DanTown]

Where is this wealth for free agent Talent?

This isn't a team that is pressed to spend FA dollars (where the biggest cost of FA money is always opportunity cost) right now just to get Alex Cobb.

Guy A last year
K/9 - 6.89
BB/9 - 2.89
HR/9 - 1.09
FIP - 4.23

Guy B
K/9 - 6.42
BB/9 - 2.21
HR/9 - 1.10
FIP - 4.16

One guy was Alex Cobb and the other was Clayton Richard.

 

[DanTown]

The long term future of the Cubs rotation is likely a lot of high priced FA at the top and then a bunch of young arms at the bottom. The Cubs have a lot of arms at AA or higher that have MLB potential but not a ton of TOR potential. What that means for the franchise is to spend money on guys they legitimately think are 1s or 2s on playoff teams. They have no real need to spend a ton of long term money on innings eaters; I can think of at least eight arms in the organization that could be on the 2019 or 2020 roster and give you #5 stuff.

Getting an ace or #2 solves the #4 problem and then helps solve the bullpen issue. For the 10-15 million Cobb would cost, I would much rather spend half on a legit bullpen guy and then the other half on two/three gambles at the 5 spot. I'd go Tyson Ross, Derek Holland, and Anibal Sanchez on one year show me deals.

For the bullpen, I think Andrew Cashner could be the next Wade Davis/Andrew Miller and I would give him 3/30 to try it. Then I'd go after Morrow and McGee and then use a committee to get the final outs.

 

[CSF77]

If the plan is a bridge to Tseng: Lackey at 8 mil is the main deal that makes sense.

post ASG: 7-3 3.75 ERA. 1st half dealt with plantar fasciitis. Another year at 8 mil is about as good as it gets.

If you do not trust Tseng as a starter then Cobb is fine as the "2nd" arm needed. Remember we are replacing a #5 not a #3 starter.

This in:

Rays right-hander Chris Archer may come up frequently in trade rumors this offseason, but general manager Erik Neander suggested Sunday that he plans to keep the 29-year-old. Neander told MLB Network Radio that Archer “is one of our core guys” and “exactly the type of player” the Rays need to retain if they’re going to compete in the future (Twitter link). Archer, who’s signed to one of the majors’ most team-friendly contracts, will make a combined $13.75MM over the next two seasons. After that, Archer’s employer will have a chance to control him through 2021 via ultra-affordable club options ($9MM and $11MM).

So it looks like that well maybe dry.

The Cubs and Tigers still haven’t finalized the trade they made in July that saw reliever Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila head to Chicago for catcher John Hicks, righty Joe Jimenez and a player to be named later or cash. It turns out the Tigers will receive a PTBNL in lieu of cash, but the teams haven’t decided on which player yet, Mark Anderson of Baseball Prospectus tweets.

losing another player. can't be anything on the top 30. They can have Robinson IMO.

If they were on the rebuild mode again I would look at Chris Tillman on a 1 year flip. But with Boz gone I really do not see this direction.


Man with the Archer announcement going into the winter meetings it is going to become depressing.

looking at the F/A list it is Yu and Jake
Then
Cobb and Lynn
you could add Chacon here also.

Rest are honestly high risk or LH. or just old.

 

[CSF77]

Reason why Jed may shy away from Chacin: he had the game’s third-worst walk rate and led all of baseball in hit-by-pitches. Jed has said that that is a main focus going into next season. cutting the walks and adding a league leader normally goes against this vision.

Honestly they should go after Yu right now. With Archer off the board they have to invest.

 

[CSF77]

Just though of this:

What about trading for Jordan Zimmermann. We might be able to get them to eat some of that deal.

Owed 24 mil/25 mi/25 mil. Might bounce back not sure honestly. put up a 1.1 WAR so I could see Det wanting to off load that deal for a song. Cubs give something of quality they may get a chunk eaten.

 

[beckdawg]

Just though of this:

What about trading for Jordan Zimmermann. We might be able to get them to eat some of that deal.

Owed 24 mil/25 mi/25 mil. Might bounce back not sure honestly. put up a 1.1 WAR so I could see Det wanting to off load that deal for a song. Cubs give something of quality they may get a chunk eaten.

A guy with a career 7.10 k/9(well below league average) who the past two seasons had a k/9 of 5.64 and 5.79 and who has an absurdly bad contract even if they eat money? Hell no. The stats suggest he's just done. Not seeing anything positive there.

 

[CSF77]

A guy with a career 7.10 k/9(well below league average) who the past two seasons had a k/9 of 5.64 and 5.79 and who has an absurdly bad contract even if they eat money? Hell no. The stats suggest he's just done. Not seeing anything positive there.

I get that bit. He took a nose dive after moving to Det and has a full no trade next year anyways.

The SO/9 are a major concern.

But done? Idk honestly. He may have to change his style. I felt Rich Hill was done also. Then he goes on to prove the world wrong

 

[CSF77]

But regardless. I’m kinda looking at Yu right now. I honestly am alittle weary about a guy that falls apart in big games and making a massive investment that direction. But if it gives an advantage to Ohtani it has merit.

 

[beckdawg]

I get that bit. He took a nose dive after moving to Det and has a full no trade next year anyways.

The SO/9 are a major concern.

But done? Idk honestly. He may have to change his style. I felt Rich Hill was done also. Then he goes on to prove the world wrong

Entirely different cases with him and Hill. Hill always struck people out. His problem was throwing strikes. Zimmermann is the anthesis of that. He can't strike people out but has good command. The problem is that if your pitches don't fool anyone you get hit hard. It's the whole conversation about someone like Hendricks living on a knife edge. Also, Zimmermann has lost 2 mph off his fast ball from his time with the nationals. I just don't really see what much there is to change. Teams crushed his fastball the past two years with a wFB/C of -1.77 and -1.89. That's a pitch he throws 50% of the time. I don't see how you fix that. I mean ok sure if he learns to throw a knuckleball or something nuts as a primary pitch maybe he reinvents himself but he's going to be 32. The chances of him gaining mph on that fastball are slim.

 

[beckdawg]

But regardless. I’m kinda looking at Yu right now. I honestly am alittle weary about a guy that falls apart in big games and making a massive investment that direction. But if it gives an advantage to Ohtani it has merit.

I don't think he really fell apart as much as people make it out to be. I'd prefer him to Arrieta for example all things being equal. His post season numbers aren't really even bad. His issue has been he's given up too man HRs. Over 6 starts in the postseason he has a 25.0% HR/FB rate. His k/9 and bb/9 at 8.54/1.37 is good and maybe even "great." Fangraphs doesn't have his hard hit rates for post season so I can't really compare that but it's entirely possible it's just bad sequencing that over a longer period of time evens out. His 65.8% strand rate is also really low likely because of the HRs. His career rate there is 76.4%. His career rate on HR/FB is 12.0%.

I've seen some suggest he was tipping his pitches. Could have been that or something else but the takeaway I have is that whatever is "wrong" with him in the postseason is something you can fix.

 

[beckdawg]

Also to amend your idea a bit think if your going to go the buy low on a high priced starter that Johnny Cueto makes more sense than Zimmermann. Not sure the giants are going to totally blow it up but his issues from last year seem to be he lost his command and ground balls became fly balls. That's a little bit worrying but his k rate was fine. Not sure i'd want him at $20 mil+ for the next 4-5 years but if the giants ate a few mil per year I'd consider him.

And to that end Joel Sherman posited the idea of this trade

Marlins get Christian Arroyo, Seth Corry from the Giants, and Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist from the Cubs; the Giants get Stanton; and the Cubs get Johnny Cueto.

My thought is the cubs are giving up way too much. Cueto is owed at least $87.3M over the next 4 years and another $17 mil if his team picks up his 5th year option. Zobrist is owed $29M over the next 2 years. The difference would essentially make Cueto worth $14.5 mil/year for the next 4 which works in my eyes but not enough to give up happ. However, if you were to swap out happ with say a Hatch or someone of that ilk I think it wouldn't be a terrible deal. Zobrist going would solve some of the cubs issues with regard to log jam.

 

[CSF77]

Entirely different cases with him and Hill. Hill always struck people out. His problem was throwing strikes. Zimmermann is the anthesis of that. He can't strike people out but has good command. The problem is that if your pitches don't fool anyone you get hit hard. It's the whole conversation about someone like Hendricks living on a knife edge. Also, Zimmermann has lost 2 mph off his fast ball from his time with the nationals. I just don't really see what much there is to change. Teams crushed his fastball the past two years with a wFB/C of -1.77 and -1.89. That's a pitch he throws 50% of the time. I don't see how you fix that. I mean ok sure if he learns to throw a knuckleball or something nuts as a primary pitch maybe he reinvents himself but he's going to be 32. The chances of him gaining mph on that fastball are slim.

Rich talked about it. He had to strengthen his lower body. He saw what Kershaw was doing with his curve and realized that that had to be his main pitch. I believe that Kershaw uses his breaking stuff like 57% of the time and Hill is up there also. Zimmerman was at 37% I believe. It is just a trend of pitchers going to offspeed more and their fastball becoming a secondary offering.

 

[CSF77]

Also to amend your idea a bit think if your going to go the buy low on a high priced starter that Johnny Cueto makes more sense than Zimmermann. Not sure the giants are going to totally blow it up but his issues from last year seem to be he lost his command and ground balls became fly balls. That's a little bit worrying but his k rate was fine. Not sure i'd want him at $20 mil+ for the next 4-5 years but if the giants ate a few mil per year I'd consider him.

And to that end Joel Sherman posited the idea of this trade



My thought is the cubs are giving up way too much. Cueto is owed at least $87.3M over the next 4 years and another $17 mil if his team picks up his 5th year option. Zobrist is owed $29M over the next 2 years. The difference would essentially make Cueto worth $14.5 mil/year for the next 4 which works in my eyes but not enough to give up happ. However, if you were to swap out happ with say a Hatch or someone of that ilk I think it wouldn't be a terrible deal. Zobrist going would solve some of the cubs issues with regard to log jam.

Didn't Cueto pull his opt?

 

[CSF77]

I don't think he really fell apart as much as people make it out to be. I'd prefer him to Arrieta for example all things being equal. His post season numbers aren't really even bad. His issue has been he's given up too man HRs. Over 6 starts in the postseason he has a 25.0% HR/FB rate. His k/9 and bb/9 at 8.54/1.37 is good and maybe even "great." Fangraphs doesn't have his hard hit rates for post season so I can't really compare that but it's entirely possible it's just bad sequencing that over a longer period of time evens out. His 65.8% strand rate is also really low likely because of the HRs. His career rate there is 76.4%. His career rate on HR/FB is 12.0%.

I've seen some suggest he was tipping his pitches. Could have been that or something else but the takeaway I have is that whatever is "wrong" with him in the postseason is something you can fix.

Kershaw had the same moniker on him also until recently. It really is not the numbers it is high pressure. We saw how these starters got knocked out early 2 WS's in a row. Jake honestly excels in those situations. We saw it in Pit and saw it vs Cle as he kept them in it by winning 2 games. Then he got the only win vs the Dodgers.

He has the talent. Just like Shaw has the talent. But that environment is a different animal.

 

[CSF77]

Here is the thing with Yu. His post season numbers are really good. 25 SO in 26.1 innings. only 4 BB. 1.18 WHIP. But some how it has translated to a 5.81 ERA. Honestly it is the big hit. 8 HR's when it matters.

 

[beckdawg]

Didn't Cueto pull his opt?

Not sure what you mean. He chose not to opt out if that's what you're saying.

 

[CSF77]

Johnny Cueto rhp
6 years/$130M (2016-21), plus 2022 option

6 years/$130M (2016-21), plus 2022 club option
signed by San Francisco as a free agent 12/17/15
$5M signing bonus (paid in $1M installments each 1/15, 2017-21)
16:$15M, 17-21:$21M/year, 22:$22M club option ($5M buyout)
assignment bonus: $0.5M for first trade, $1M for subsequent trades
Cueto may opt out of contract after 2017 season & receive buyout (must exercise within three days of end of 2017 World Series) (declined to exercise right to opt out of contract 11/17)

So there is no no-trade clause. Weird he didn't get one. He sat on his contract also vs getting out of it which was pretty smart on his part.

So honestly there might be something there. IDK if SFG do make a trade honestly. They had a bad year but that team still have a SP core that got to the play offs the year before and honestly nothing really tells me that they can't get there again. All tanking did was give them a quality draft pick.

That team could just pace the league again. Last year was honestly not expected with their talent.

 

[CSF77]

Well picking up Sandoval was honestly wishful thinking but anywho.

 

[beckdawg]

Here is the thing with Yu. His post season numbers are really good. 25 SO in 26.1 innings. only 4 BB. 1.18 WHIP. But some how it has translated to a 5.81 ERA. Honestly it is the big hit. 8 HR's when it matters.

HR's aren't really something you control "when it matters" though. You either throw a good pitch or you don't. If he were tipping his pitches then again that's something that's correctable. I've also heard that the balls they used for whatever reason caused sliders not to bite as much. Not saying you have to buy any of the reasons as to why. All I'm saying is HR's are very subjective in a small sample. And in his case he's not shown to be HR prone. If you want to make the case that some how the playoffs are different fine but I don't believe that rationale other than the fact you're more consistently facing good hitters. But the thing is on his career Darvish has excelled in high leverage situations. Batters are hitting .188/.243/.326 vs him in high leverage situations and .213/.294/.347 in medium leverage.

All that suggests to me that you're dealing with a sample size issue and it doesn't really worry me going forward.

 

[Iceman2385]

I really think the Cubs should try n have a 6man rotation consistently all year next year. Keep the SPs fresh n healthy. Have r pitchers pitch once a week like in Japan. Trade for a pitcher, sign Chatwood. Let Monty/Tseng battle it out for the 6th spot. That could help the pen too, bc then u could let the SPs go deeper in games. Could tax the pen more tho too, not really sure. I dno just a thought

The more I think about it, I don't want Cobb. Not enough upside and not safe enough to be worth a 4 year contract.

I do think there's a better chance then people think the Cubs land Otani tho. I think he goes to an NL team, he's not gna DH consistently that's just silly. Id assume the Dodgers r the favorites. But maybe he doesn't wna live in Kershaws shadow? Plus there's more competition for a starting gig in LA. I think there's reason to hope Otani will be a cub. Theo tried really hard for Tanaka, maybe he finally lands his guy w Otani!