Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[brett05]

Not sure I believe that to be the case. I doubt the yankees are actually that popular. Money is their popularity not some desire to play for them.

They have a history unmatched by any team. Next closest would be the Cardinals. And that's a big step.

 

[brett05]

Dodgers are questionable. Hill is getting old and he is the only arm that is dependable outside of Shaw in a series. Even Wood looked more hittable when the pressure increased. That team is a 2 Pitcher team. They have been that way for a long time. 2 studs and a drop off. Last year they traded to get 3 deep but the Stroes pounded Yu. Tipping or not.

So right now I see the Cubs being 3 deep with Lester/Q and Hendricks.

Dodgers 2 deep with Wood as a maybe but I’m thinking that was a fluke season for him and his stuff wasn’t high leverage enough when the competition increased.

Nats are 2 deep but could end up 4 deep if they show faith in Tanner va push him aside. They are a team that should have gone farther. I wouldn’t be shocked if they rep the NL honestly

Rest are also rans. WC teams really are at a huge disadvantage now with them having to blow their ace on a 1 game.

AL: Stroes have the deepest rotation in baseball. #2 is Cle but they are short lived with their lack of resourse. Minn might push them this year. Minn is lacking a TOR to push Cle out but it shiuld be close. East is NYY to lose right now. Their rotation is good enough with their O to push 100 wins. But Bos has a better rotation so they are the better play off team.

The Nats are easily 3 deep and could fill in alll five. That's the best starting staff in all of baseball

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The Nats are easily 3 deep and could fill in alll five. That's the best starting staff in all of baseball

I like the Astros better; Keuchel, Verlander, McCullers, Cole, Morton. Now if the Nats add Arrieta they'd be close to equal.

 

[brett05]

I like the Astros better; Keuchel, Verlander, McCullers, Cole, Morton. Now if the Nats add Arrieta they'd be close to equal.

If you look at WAR from last year it's the Nats. The Astros are about 2 wins short. That's all I was basing my selections upon.

Here's what I read from another site:

Astros: 22 total

Verlander 6.0

Keuchel 5.6

Cole 3.7

McCullers 3.5

Morton 3.2



Nationals: 25.2 total

Scherzer 8.1

Strasburg 5.9

Gonzalez 4.7

Roark 4.5

Cole 2.0



Yankees: 19.1 total

Severino 5.5

Gray 3.2

Tanaka 3.7

Montgomery 3.4

Sabathia 3.3



Indians: 21.1 total

Kluber 7.7

Carrasco 6.2

Bauer 2.9

Salazar 2.6

Tomlin 1.7





So a simple WAR ranking would have them:



1) Nationals

2) Astros

3) Indians

4) Yankees

 

[CSF77]

Read a major free agent is willing to hold out until mid season because he feels he isnt getting anywhere near what he should. It is a Boras client. Im thinking Martinez.

Has to be Jake. No one will give him 7 years. I’ll bet the best offer was 4 and a option.

The issue going on right now is front offices are running modern now. They are basing offers off of what they are getting vs what a pitcher has done.

I’ve pretty much thought the general rule is take the last 5 years of a player. Avg his WAR values and figure up a AAV off of that. Front load it so his AAV is higher early contract and it drops later as his WAR drops due to age. Years given is based off of age but going past a players 36th year is unwise in general.

Now as far as Jake is concerned his WAR has dropped 3 years in a row. He had a inhuman run but his velocity dropped and he had to readjust his delivery while becoming more of a curveball pitcher to counter his fastball loss. Teams are looking at him as a 2 now and not a ace. So a 2 goes for 22 AAV honestly and the Cubs offer was well over that but on a more realistic time frame.

I just believe that Jake thinks he is better than the numbers are showing but teams are running smarter right now and don’t want to pay on Jake’s great run.

Cubs already got his best years. Honestly I believe he will be a 18 AAV guy myself the rest of the way.

 

[brett05]

I think those numbers are inflated for everyone, but consistently overinflated

 

[CSF77]

If you look at WAR from last year it's the Nats. The Astros are about 2 wins short. That's all I was basing my selections upon.

Here's what I read from another site:

Astros: 22 total

Verlander 6.0

Keuchel 5.6

Cole 3.7

McCullers 3.5

Morton 3.2



Nationals: 25.2 total

Scherzer 8.1

Strasburg 5.9

Gonzalez 4.7

Roark 4.5

Cole 2.0



Yankees: 19.1 total

Severino 5.5

Gray 3.2

Tanaka 3.7

Montgomery 3.4

Sabathia 3.3



Indians: 21.1 total

Kluber 7.7

Carrasco 6.2

Bauer 2.9

Salazar 2.6

Tomlin 1.7





So a simple WAR ranking would have them:



1) Nationals

2) Astros

3) Indians

4) Yankees

That is why I had the Nats could rep the NL. Dusty is a good in season manager. Guys like him like they like Joe. The difference is Joe switches up in the play offs and this team has a bunch of fighters on it. The came in and punched the Nats in the mouth.

I don’t see them blowing past them this year unless they sign Yu honestly.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Heyman is reporting Duensing has agreed to terms with the Cubs 2/$7 mil. Me likey.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

That is why I had the Nats could rep the NL. Dusty is a good in season manager. Guys like him like they like Joe. The difference is Joe switches up in the play offs and this team has a bunch of fighters on it. The came in and punched the Nats in the mouth.

I don’t see them blowing past them this year unless they sign Yu honestly.

I agree. I think the Nats are the best in the NL. I think a Darvish signing puts the Cubs right there at #2.

 

[DanTown]

Heyman is reporting Duensing has agreed to terms with the Cubs 2/$7 mil. Me likey.

Interesting about that is what it means for the pitching staff. That means the Cubs now have 11 locks for the final roster

Hendricks, Lester, Quintana, Chatwood, Morrow, Cishek, Strop, Wilson, Duensing, Edwards, Montgomery

The Cubs typically carry 13 guys so either there are two spots open or just one (if the Cubs sign a SP) among these guys

Maples
Grimm (out of options)
Alvarez
Zas
Butler
Farrell
Maples
Mills
Tseng

 

[DanTown]

I was thinking about this, but I think the Cubs are done with their bullpen, especially after signing Duensing. I know guys want a typical closer and if you can find a guy like that who is super valuable (i.e Chapman in 2016, Jansen, etc) then go for it but otherwise, I don't think you really want a closer as much as you want two or three guys who can get outs late in game. My assumption is that Morrow will lead the team in saves but I wouldn't be shocked if three or four guys didn't get multiple opportunities to get outs game to game. Then, in the playoffs, you potentially add Chatwood to the bullpen and his stuff might be electric in that type of role in the playoffs, I think they'll be fine.

Basically the hope for the bullpen is you lost Davis but you're hoping to basically add three high leverage arms back (Wilson, Morrow, Cishek) that cost literally the same dollars as Wade and gave you zero valuable innings in the playoffs where as those guys could give you 2-3 times what Wade gave you.

If everyone is completely healthy, I think the first crack bullpen is
8th/9th - Morrow, Cishek
7th/8th - Edwards, Wilson, Strop
6th/7th/Mop Up - Last guy in the pen, Montgomery, Duensing

 

[CSF77]

Resigned Duesing on a 2 year.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I was thinking about this, but I think the Cubs are done with their bullpen, especially after signing Duensing. I know guys want a typical closer and if you can find a guy like that who is super valuable (i.e Chapman in 2016, Jansen, etc) then go for it but otherwise, I don't think you really want a closer as much as you want two or three guys who can get outs late in game. My assumption is that Morrow will lead the team in saves but I wouldn't be shocked if three or four guys didn't get multiple opportunities to get outs game to game. Then, in the playoffs, you potentially add Chatwood to the bullpen and his stuff might be electric in that type of role in the playoffs, I think they'll be fine.

Basically the hope for the bullpen is you lost Davis but you're hoping to basically add three high leverage arms back (Wilson, Morrow, Cishek) that cost literally the same dollars as Wade and gave you zero valuable innings in the playoffs where as those guys could give you 2-3 times what Wade gave you.

I've said it from the beginning but it's worth repeating, if Morrow pitches like he did last year his stuff plays well as a closer. His K/9 is not quite DAvis level but the BB/9 is much better and he doesn't give up HR. Also had a lower WHIP and the innings difference is not what you might think it is, 43 IP to 58.2. I think this guy has closer written all over him and you just hope fro health and continued performance. This is a strong pen and there's strong depth as you point out. Sure, we probably lose Grimm but I don't know that he'll ever be a guy he looked like once.

 

[CSF77]

Morrow
Duensing
Clechek
Wilson
Edwards
Strop

Montgomery is the #5 right now. Duensing kinda frees him up to start.

But it leaves 2 bubble spots. Montgomery gets one if they upgrade the rotation. Grimm would be the fav for the 2nd.

 

[Midway-monster84]

You forgot Maples. He'll be a huge contributor this year. Something in my gut tells me there will be one more big signing. To much silence for nothing to happen .

 

[CSF77]

You forgot Maples. He'll be a huge contributor this year. Something in my gut tells me there will be one more big signing. To much silence for nothing to happen .

I’ve gone over this before. Maples has walk issues going on also. He has the highest celing but needs polishing

 

[CSF77]

I’m pretty sure that they will sign Yu honestly. If they were going to sign Cobb it would have been done by now.

 

[chibears55]

Glad to see Duensing back, make the pen that much better...

Still would like to see them add a close though it looking more like their gonna go with Morrow there

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[beckdawg]

I was thinking about this, but I think the Cubs are done with their bullpen, especially after signing Duensing.

Maddon is going to run an 8 man pen. He always does. You listed 7 guys. Now sure Maples and Grimm at the moment may be in line for the last spot but I think a better way to say this is the cubs may be done...... for now. I think it is probably worth while to see what they have in Maples. If he's as good in the majors as he was in AA/AAA last year then there's no real need. But if his command issues that have haunted him in the past come back you can easily make a case to add another piece during the season.

At this point in the offseason I don't really think I want holland and there's really nothing else out there that is worht the time. Holland got a QO which i didn't remember until recently. He's got decent numbers but i don't really want the cubs giving up draft picks.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I’m pretty sure that they will sign Yu honestly. If they were going to sign Cobb it would have been done by now.

Len Kasper agrees with you. I think today's signing of a Duensing was a push, in other words telling Darvish's people that they'd be OK with out him and that it's time to shit or get off the pot. I expect it will work.