Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

[chibears55]

@CarrieMuskat: #Cubs Minor League report: Bryant has 3 hits, Rusin homers, Soler 2-for-2 wp.me/p1rXwp-8XVN

 

[theberserkfury]

I really can't wait to see Alcantara get called up...

 

[chibears55]

I really can't wait to see Alcantara get called up...

I can't wait for him, baez, and bryant...

This team needs an identity and a huge offensive shot in the arm..

Getting tired of seeing bench players like coghlin Ruggiano sweeney starting every day and .200 hitters like olt and barney making outs in RBI situation..

If those 3 can come up and be 80% of what theyve shown in minors that would be a huge upgrade over what they have trotting out there now.

 

[beckdawg]

Some guy broke down the first 3 months of baseball into two halves for our minors. Also, Jason Parks is going to rank Alcantara higher then Soler and Almora in the mid season top 50. He will be in the top 30.

I've been saying for awhile I think Alcantara may end up being a better pro than Soler and Almora. As a switch hitter who walks decently and can get you 20/30+ that's got some great value. I just don't want to see him in CF. Since switching to 2B he's been decent there fielding wise. He'll likely get called up within his next 50 games and I don't really think the 6 games he's played in CF is enough to warrant playing him there. Stick him at 2B and see what he does. If he hits, then figure out what to do with Baez if he gets off the roller coaster season he's had. Ultimately, I think Bryant's bat will out play his defense and they can make things easier by moving him to RF when Baez is ready.

I'd really like to see Alcantara up by August and Bryant hopefully soon there after though I'm not sure they will. Baez they likely need to leave in AAA all season and they could give him looks at 3B/2B depending on how Alcantara hits and whether or not Bryant is a mess at 3B in the majors.

 

[chibears55]

@CubsNation14: HOME RUN Kyle Schwarber!!! 3 run shot! @CubsDen @ESPNChiCubs @cubblog

 

[theberserkfury]

2 homers for Schwarber today...

 

[chibears55]

@KCCougars: Kyle Schwarber with a GRAND SLAM in the 7th inning! 10-1 Cougars!

 

[CSF77]

Schwarber for the season: .520/.583/1.140 8 HR 19 RBI 50 AB 7 BB 7 SO. He is very advanced right now.

Bryant went 3/4 in a loss. Now at .351/.429/.838 in Iowa. .355/.458/.702 at Tenn.

Seems like his adjustment was pretty fast and he is back on pace.

It would be tempting to promote Schwarber to Fla in Aug and have him start in AA next year like they did with Bryant.

If Bryant sustains this by the trade deadline I would push the button and promote him and Alcantara.

Iowa team:
2B: Alcantara .303/.344/.544
CF: Kalish .247/.342/.392
SS: Baez .234/.294/.425
1B: Valaika .305/.367/.466
3B: Bryant: .351/.429/.838
LF: Vitters .239/.296/.378
C: Flores .253/.440/.356
RF: Jackson .196/.281/.329 or Szczur .245/.309/.305

Bench: Watkins .284/.366/.385

Right now the only solid producers have been Alcantara, Bryant, Valaika and Watkins.

That is why I wouldn't mind trading a chunk of the Cubs and back filling with these guys.

Bryant at 3B, Alcantara at 2B. Valaika and Watkins as bench players who can play 3-4 spots each for off days.

They could toss Olt, trade Valbuena, Bonifacio and Barney at that point. Clean up the team some and move away from platooning. Let the bench be used for giving the starters a day off or D replacements late inning.

 

[TL1961]

Look at those numbers for Vitters and Jackson. Good grief!

Either the Cubs badly missed with those picks, badly messed up their young players, or a combination of both.

I wrote off Vitters long ago, and he seemed to be rebounding a bit last year. But what hope is there for him now? None.

Jackson, after getting praise from Sveum in camp in 2012, has gone completely to hell.

They need to be looking for another profession.

 

[beckdawg]

I wrote off Vitters long ago, and he seemed to be rebounding a bit last year. But what hope is there for him now? None.

I wouldn't totally give up on Vitters yet. Don't get me wrong, I don't think he's ever going to be more than an average MLB player at his peak based on what we've seen. However, he's only 24. People forget that because he's been in the cubs system since he was 17. He's got the chance to be a half decent role player because he can play 1B/3B/corner OF off the bench. Obviously that's a giant disappointment for the #3 overall pick. If you look at someone like Valbuena, several teams gave up on him before he finally put enough together to be what he is now at 28. Typically, player's peak around age 29 with their prime being 26-32. Vitters is two years away from that still. It's possible the cubs will give up on him to clear space on the 40 man soon depending on how trades go down. But, I think there's still more to him than we've seen. I've seen some willing to give Olt chances. Well Olt's 25.... just sayin' and that's not even a shot at Olt. I have no problem with them sending him back to AAA though similar to Vitters at that age, both aren't likely to be much more than role players even if they do figure it out. That being said, given what we've seen offensively the past 3 years, having them as depth is a hell of a lot nicer than what it could be.

 

[beckdawg]

Here's an interesting thing I noticed about Bryant.

2013 A- - 209 wRC+
2013 A+ - 212 wRC+
2013 AFL - 214 wRC+
2014 AA - 219 wRC+
2014 AAA - 219 wRC+

How's that for consistency? I'm assuming some have no concept of wRC+ is so here's a description from fangraphs.

Weighted Runs Created (wRC) is an improved version of Bill James’ Runs Created (RC) statistic, which attempted to quantify a player’s total offensive value and measure it by runs. In Runs Created, instead of looking at a player’s line and listing out all the details (e.g. 23 2B, 15 HR, 55 BB, 110 K, 19 SB, 5 CS), the information is synthesized into one metric in order to say, “Player X was worth 24 runs to his team last year.” While the idea was sound, James’ formula has since been superseded by Tom Tango’s wRC , which is based off of wOBA.

The only difference between wRC and wRC+ is they normalize it to 100 being average. A wRC+ of 125 is 25% more runs than league average and so on. To put this into context, 10 MLB players had a wRC+ of 150 or higher(Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Chris Davis, Jayson Werth, Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew McCutchen, David Ortiz, Shin-Soo Choo, and Freddie Freeman) last year. To put further context on this, the last person to put up a 200+ wRC+ in the southern league(cubs AA) was Giancarlo Stanton who's been a career 144 wRC+ player.

Given that, it still baffles me that the apparently don't see a promotion for Bryant happening this season. I get the k rate still being an issue for him but his wOBA is actually higher in AAA thus far over a small sample size. Maybe they want to give him some time with Manny.... I don't know.

 

[beckdawg]

Was digging through prospect stuff this morning which is why I noticed the stuff about Bryant. I also noticed what Jen-Ho Tseng has been doing. As a 19 year old in A he's put up 9.39 k/9 1.37 bb/9 and a 2.35/2.29 ERA/FIP. Assuming this continues you're potentially talking about someone who might see the top 100 list next year. Daniel Norris was #95 prior to this year after putting up 10.40 k/9 4.62 bb/9 and a 4.20/3.62 ERA/FIP as a 20 year old. As far as their stuff, mlb.com had them with similar stuff though they liked Norris' change up more but Tseng's control better.

There was some thought going into 2013 that he would be the #1 overall IFA. However, he got crushed in the world baseball classic and people soured a bit on him after a great 2012. I did a little search into him this morning and baseball america said some scouts think his change up is his best pitch. Looks like he could end up having 3 plus offerings(fastball, curve, change) and a passable slider with his fastball sitting in the 90-95 range.

In particular, Kane County's staff has some interesting arms. Besides, Tseng they have Tyler Skulina, Duane Underwood, Daury Torrez and Paul Blackburn all of whom are 22 or younger and have sub-3.15 ERAs. None of them outside Tseng appear to have elite stuff as all of them are in the 7 or lower k/9. After Tseng, Blackburn's probably the most interesting given that he too as a very nice walk rate. Underwood might be the next most interesting case as he can hit 98 with his fastball and he's young for that league. If you can buy into some projection a bit he might have the highest upside. But, Skulina and Torrez might have mid to back of the rotation type potential. In fact, mlb.com said Skulina could be a #2 if he figures out his control. I'm personally not seeing that in the numbers thus far but there ya go.

Rob Zastryzny in Daytona has also put up some interesting stats. His ERA is a bit garbage but if you look past that his 9.10 k/9 2.28 bb/9 is very nice. And while his 5.31 sucks his FIP is a respectable 3.52. Ivan Pineyro(Hairston trade) in AA looks like he might be something. 3.60/4.21 ERA/FIP with 7.46 k/9 4.37 bb/9. The walks are troubling but the rest of his minor career he's been sub 3 so likely a case of smallish sample size. Probably more of a back of the rotation type but not shabby. Corey Black(Soriano trade) has also been decent in AA with 3.03/4.15 ERA/FIP and 9.37 k/9 4.96 bb/9. Unfortunately, unlike Pineyro, he has historically been this poor with control. If he could ever get that figured out he could potentially be someone considered on the level of a Pierce Johnson or Edwards.

 

[SilenceS]

Underwood has an amazing arm and has always been on my radar. Blackburn as well. Tseng has gained steam. Still need to see him perform against some better comp because there are questions still. The Cubs have arms with great upside. Its just thats all they are right now is upside. Nothing you can hang your hat on and you hope you hit on one.

 

[beckdawg]

Underwood has an amazing arm and has always been on my radar. Blackburn as well. Tseng has gained steam. Still need to see him perform against some better comp because there are questions still. The Cubs have arms with great upside. Its just thats all they are right now is upside. Nothing you can hang your hat on and you hope you hit on one.

In reference to Tseng, hear what you're saying but he's still pretty young for A. If you figure he finishes A+ this year and starts part of it next year before going to AA and then finally 2 years from now is in AAA, he's still only going to be 22ish. Hendricks is 24 in AA right now. As another example, Pierce Johnson was 22 when he pitched in A/A+. So, he's likely pitching to competition that should be better than him based on age. Obviously, you still have to be able to get AA/AAA hitters out though.

 

[SilenceS]

In reference to Tseng, hear what you're saying but he's still pretty young for A. If you figure he finishes A+ this year and starts part of it next year before going to AA and then finally 2 years from now is in AAA, he's still only going to be 22ish. Hendricks is 24 in AA right now. As another example, Pierce Johnson was 22 when he pitched in A/A+. So, he's likely pitching to competition that should be better than him based on age. Obviously, you still have to be able to get AA/AAA hitters out though.

Not entirely what I men, but kinda.

 

[CSF77]

We'll Manny 2/3 with a 2 run HR with Bryant on. Wonder if Manny can field LF still? Can't be worse than what is happening now.

 

[SilenceS]

1st and second with one and Baez walks to load the bases. Bryant comes up after a strike out later and hits a grand slam to dead center. ICubs now lead 6-5.

 

[SilenceS]

Ever since Bryant has arrives, Baez has taken a good amounts of walk. I think these two are taking the pressure off each other.

 

[chibears55]

Ever since Bryant has arrives, Baez has taken a good amounts of walk. I think these two are taking the pressure off each other.

Really looking forward to seeing these two playing everyday with Rizzo and Castro

 

[SilenceS]

Parker blew the lead in the top of the 9th. Baez doubled to start the 9th. Val sacrificed to move him to third. They IBB Bryant and Watkins and Vitters won the game with an RBI single.