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Thats why I said that would make him a superstar.
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Thats why I said that would make him a superstar.
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Why? All these ranking are subjective but people have to tank in account position as well. A prospect playing short makes him more valuable because of difficulty of position. If they can play short, they can play anywhere. Baez ceiling is still considered to probably be the highest of any player in the majors. You are talking a guy with legit 40 plus home run power that could hit for a pretty high average and swipe 15 to 20 bags a year as a SS. Scouts believe he could easily maintain around a .330 BABIP because of how hard he hits the ball. Do not look at this year stat line and think it changed peoples opinion on Baez. He is 21. He is the youngest or second youngest player in AAA. Since May 15, he is batting around .300 and has cut his strikeouts down by over 8% while hits walk rate is at an all time at 8.4%. He has increased his walk rate every year. Baez has shown the ability his entire minor league career of being able to adjust to leagues. He still has a good bit of work to do, but to most of these scouts and to the Cubs FO. His slash line means very little to them.
Bryant is a bat that is going to hit a lot of homers, take alot of walks, and strikeout a lot. I dont think he will hit for as high as an average as some here would suggest but he def. an elite bat for a prospect. The only knock is he could potentially be just an average third baseman or go the OF.
Rankings really dont matter. You should look at rankings in tiers because there is a total difference between a top 10 player and a top 30 players. Baez, Russell, and Bryant are all on the same tier.
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Soler goes big fly in his return. 2 for 4 with 2 RBI's today. Russell is 0 for 4. They should each get 1 more about. Smokies just got way more interesting to follow again. Daytona was rained out and Schwarber is sitting today for Kane.
chibears55
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Soler just needs to rock from here on out, start next year in AAA and hopefully become a part of the cubs at some point next year
chibears55
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@BleacherNation: Kyle Hendricks was just pulled from @IowaCubs game after 2 innings, *unconfirmed* reports of #hugs. Maybe he starts for Cubs on Tuesday?
brett05
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Or traded for another ss
CSF77
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Read that Wada will be called up to pitch on the DH game 2. 26 man rule. They talked about Beeler not Hendricks in the piece.
I would rather wait and see. 2 IP still means they have to wait a few days before plugging him in.
I would rather wait and see. 2 IP still means they have to wait a few days before plugging him in.
CSF77
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Soler is good. But again it is a question of how long before another bolt comes off?
chibears55
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My guess hendrick could go on thurs in samardzija spot
Doubt they go with Villanueva again
Mr. Cub
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Bryant and Baez also went yard so far tonight.
CSF77
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It said that Vill will go back to the pen and they will stick in house.
CSF77
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Seems like Wada and Beeler to be honest.
WASHINGTON -- The Cubs' starting rotation remains in flux following the trade of right-handers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the Athletics on Saturday.
Manager Rick Renteria has the pitching schedule set through the first three games of a five-game set at the Reds. Edwin Jackson will start the series opener on Monday, Travis Wood will pitch the first game of the doubleheader on Tuesday and Triple-A Iowa left-hander Tsuyoshi Wada will start the nightcap.
Renteria said the starting pitchers for Wednesday and Thursday will likely be determined on Monday or Tuesday.
Along with Wada, Iowa right-hander Dallas Beeler could also see action at the big league level in the near future. Beeler surrendered one unearned run and four hits over six innings in his lone start for the Cubs on June 28 against the Nationals.
"There's nothing that says they can't come in here and perform and help us win ballgames," Renteria said. "We're really hopeful that the guys that we have within the system will be able to come in and hopefully find a sense of comfort within that clubhouse and when they go out to the hill. Obviously, there's some nervousness that comes with the new area, the new arena. But usually those guys are able to adjust and perform."
Beeler is 5-3 with a 3.93 ERA in 11 starts for Iowa this season, while Wada has gone 9-5 with a 2.66 ERA in 17 appearances, 16 starts. Renteria said the Cubs' current situation provides an opportunity for both pitchers to experience the Major Leagues outside of Spring Training.
"It's a neat feeling actually for those guys because you're in the middle of a season," Renteria said. "You're in the middle of the grind. And it's a time when you're able to not just think about making a club, but you're actually trying to go out there and compete and help your club win a ballgame. So it's a little different atmosphere."
WASHINGTON -- The Cubs' starting rotation remains in flux following the trade of right-handers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the Athletics on Saturday.
Manager Rick Renteria has the pitching schedule set through the first three games of a five-game set at the Reds. Edwin Jackson will start the series opener on Monday, Travis Wood will pitch the first game of the doubleheader on Tuesday and Triple-A Iowa left-hander Tsuyoshi Wada will start the nightcap.
Renteria said the starting pitchers for Wednesday and Thursday will likely be determined on Monday or Tuesday.
Along with Wada, Iowa right-hander Dallas Beeler could also see action at the big league level in the near future. Beeler surrendered one unearned run and four hits over six innings in his lone start for the Cubs on June 28 against the Nationals.
"There's nothing that says they can't come in here and perform and help us win ballgames," Renteria said. "We're really hopeful that the guys that we have within the system will be able to come in and hopefully find a sense of comfort within that clubhouse and when they go out to the hill. Obviously, there's some nervousness that comes with the new area, the new arena. But usually those guys are able to adjust and perform."
Beeler is 5-3 with a 3.93 ERA in 11 starts for Iowa this season, while Wada has gone 9-5 with a 2.66 ERA in 17 appearances, 16 starts. Renteria said the Cubs' current situation provides an opportunity for both pitchers to experience the Major Leagues outside of Spring Training.
"It's a neat feeling actually for those guys because you're in the middle of a season," Renteria said. "You're in the middle of the grind. And it's a time when you're able to not just think about making a club, but you're actually trying to go out there and compete and help your club win a ballgame. So it's a little different atmosphere."
CSF77
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Right now they have Blake Parker and Rusin. Tue they will be able to add a 26th man and they have named Wada to pitch game 2.
I'm guessing if Wada performs strong he will stay and I believe Rusin gets the demote. He did not get a start last time. Then when Vill's time pops they plug Beeler in and demote Parker.
Hendricks I believe is not on the 40 man yet. I could see him promoted after Vill goes but it seems they like Beeler's project ability more as he is being talked about more.
Think it more about his stuff being more major league quality than Hendricks.
I'm guessing if Wada performs strong he will stay and I believe Rusin gets the demote. He did not get a start last time. Then when Vill's time pops they plug Beeler in and demote Parker.
Hendricks I believe is not on the 40 man yet. I could see him promoted after Vill goes but it seems they like Beeler's project ability more as he is being talked about more.
Think it more about his stuff being more major league quality than Hendricks.
beckdawg
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So, lost in a lot of the Russell chatter was the nugget that baseball prospectus intends to rate Alcantara #18 in their midseason rankings coming out today. Not to say that he isn't deserving but they had him at #83 prior to the season. Talent varies from season to season but generally when you start talking about top 15 prospects you're talking about players you build a team around usually. Historically the attrition rate of those type of players is 62.7%/39.6% success/superior for players ranked 1-10 on baseball america's top 100 and 59.3%/39.5% on 11-20. Granted we're mixing rating services but given the season Alcantara is having it would not be surprising to see them there on BA's midseason list. In this data, "success" is anything over 1.5 fWAR/season average while "superior" is anything over 2.5 fWAR/season average. Another interesting tidbit in that data is that if you look at success rates of finding "superior" pitchers outside the top 10 prospects you basically are talking about needing 2 top 30 pitchers to equate to one hitter in the top 20(39.5% superior rate for hitters in the top 20 and 18.7%/14.3 for 11-20 and 21-30 respectively). This lends credence to those who are suggesting Russell is worth every bit as much as two top 30 pitchers by himself.
The source of this is found here and I recommend it as a very interesting read.
http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects
Additionally, if we extrapolate the data and look at the rest of the cubs prospects you're talking about roughly a 30% chance of "success" and a 17% chance of "superior" for position players and a 19/7% chance on pitchers. I would exclude Schwarber from that area for the moment. Kohl Stewart was the #4 pick last year and started this season in the mid-30's. So, given his similar draft pick rating and his start thus far it's likely Schwarber will be around there with the potential to be in the top 20 soon if he continues to hit.
If we bring all this together and assume Schwarber does end up in the top 20 at some point realistically you're talking about 3 of Baez, Russell, Bryant, Alcantara and Scwharber averaging 1.5+ WAR/season as well as 2 of that 3 becoming 2.5+ WAR/season types. As for the rest of Soler, Almora, and possibly McKinney, Vogelbach, Eloy Jimenez, and Torres you're likely talking about 1-2 of them being 1.5+ WAR/season types and 0-1 of those becoming a 2.5+ WAR/season type unless they rapidly advance up the top 100 a la Alcantara. As for pitching, with Edwards, Johnson and possibly Tseng in consideration for top 100 you're likely talking about 0-1 of them becoming a 1.5+ WAR/season type. As such, if we assume Castillo, Rizzo and Castro as established players who are likely to stay you're adding 4 names out of the cubs top 15ish prospects to the line up with maybe 1 pitcher to a staff of likely Wood and Arrieta going forward.
There's going to be additional talent coming outside of the 15+ prospects the cubs have as well though it tends to be way more volatile. Either way, I think it's quite likely they will be able to field the majority of a MLB lineup with their current prospects even despite those who will suggest high prospect bust rates. And unsurprisingly, they are likely going to have to add pitching some other way. However, having spent a lot of lessor draft picks on pitching they are likely to be able to fill out the back of their rotation with players it's mainly the top of the rotation in question. This again, is rather unsurprising. However, if that is how things play out they are going to have a relatively cheap line up which should open up a lot of financial assets for pitching. Even in 2019, you're only talking ~$29 mil between Rizzo, Castro and Soler though things likely are to get a bit tougher after that unless they finally manage to secure a huge TV deal as I believe 2019 is when the CSN portion of their tv contract is up.
The source of this is found here and I recommend it as a very interesting read.
http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects
Additionally, if we extrapolate the data and look at the rest of the cubs prospects you're talking about roughly a 30% chance of "success" and a 17% chance of "superior" for position players and a 19/7% chance on pitchers. I would exclude Schwarber from that area for the moment. Kohl Stewart was the #4 pick last year and started this season in the mid-30's. So, given his similar draft pick rating and his start thus far it's likely Schwarber will be around there with the potential to be in the top 20 soon if he continues to hit.
If we bring all this together and assume Schwarber does end up in the top 20 at some point realistically you're talking about 3 of Baez, Russell, Bryant, Alcantara and Scwharber averaging 1.5+ WAR/season as well as 2 of that 3 becoming 2.5+ WAR/season types. As for the rest of Soler, Almora, and possibly McKinney, Vogelbach, Eloy Jimenez, and Torres you're likely talking about 1-2 of them being 1.5+ WAR/season types and 0-1 of those becoming a 2.5+ WAR/season type unless they rapidly advance up the top 100 a la Alcantara. As for pitching, with Edwards, Johnson and possibly Tseng in consideration for top 100 you're likely talking about 0-1 of them becoming a 1.5+ WAR/season type. As such, if we assume Castillo, Rizzo and Castro as established players who are likely to stay you're adding 4 names out of the cubs top 15ish prospects to the line up with maybe 1 pitcher to a staff of likely Wood and Arrieta going forward.
There's going to be additional talent coming outside of the 15+ prospects the cubs have as well though it tends to be way more volatile. Either way, I think it's quite likely they will be able to field the majority of a MLB lineup with their current prospects even despite those who will suggest high prospect bust rates. And unsurprisingly, they are likely going to have to add pitching some other way. However, having spent a lot of lessor draft picks on pitching they are likely to be able to fill out the back of their rotation with players it's mainly the top of the rotation in question. This again, is rather unsurprising. However, if that is how things play out they are going to have a relatively cheap line up which should open up a lot of financial assets for pitching. Even in 2019, you're only talking ~$29 mil between Rizzo, Castro and Soler though things likely are to get a bit tougher after that unless they finally manage to secure a huge TV deal as I believe 2019 is when the CSN portion of their tv contract is up.
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beckdawg,
I would also argue that the above blog post is rather conservative as it uses data only up to 2003. Which was before a lot of software programs were developed to better scout prospects, before WAR was as popular as it is now, and before the immense work on overall scouting as it is today.
So we may see an era of success/superiority like we haven't seen before in baseball.
I would also argue that the above blog post is rather conservative as it uses data only up to 2003. Which was before a lot of software programs were developed to better scout prospects, before WAR was as popular as it is now, and before the immense work on overall scouting as it is today.
So we may see an era of success/superiority like we haven't seen before in baseball.
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While Kris Bryant continues to rake, Mark Appel (who a lot of you were mad we didn't get) has been struggling with injuries and poor outings consistently.
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chibears55
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@ESPNChiCubs: Spent 15 min w Manny Ramirez just now. Could not have been nicer. Compared Bryant to Richie Sexson. That's a new one
Mr. Cub
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I liked Sexson. He was favorite of mine..
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Baez bomb. 2 on 2 out in the top of the third
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Before tonights game,
Baez' last 19 games:
80 PA
67 AB
15 R
22 H
7 2B
0 3B
2 HR
12 RBI
13 BB
21 K
16.3 BB%
26.2 K%
.328 BA
.438 OBP
.522 SLG
.960 OPS
.403 wOBA
Baez' last 19 games:
80 PA
67 AB
15 R
22 H
7 2B
0 3B
2 HR
12 RBI
13 BB
21 K
16.3 BB%
26.2 K%
.328 BA
.438 OBP
.522 SLG
.960 OPS
.403 wOBA
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