Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

[dabears253313]

The Cubs are trying to compete for the worst record in baseball, so it would make sense if they traded away their 24 year old three time all star.

 

[dabears253313]

C'mon guys, the future HOF'er in Castro should fetch Mike Trout.

So people thinking that Starlin Castro is a good player automatically means they think his value is equal to the value of Mike Trout......??????

 

[chibears55]

Maybe not. Baez will be called up likely in 2015 for good. If there's going to be a trade then it makes sense to do it in the offseason when the cost of pitching is less vs at the trade deadline. Presumably, if a trade occurs they aren't going to want prospects most likely and instead will likely target MLB pitching.

Their not going to be in desperation mode to trade any of their top prospects for a veteran TOR starter this off season.

Their going to spend 2015 figuring out who where and how these kids are going to fit in their everyday lineup.

This is why I say 2015 trade deadline and more so 2015 off season is when you could see a trade of one of those kids for a Top starter

 

[beckdawg]

Their not going to be in desperation mode to trade any of their top prospects for a veteran TOR starter this off season.

Their going to spend 2015 figuring out who where and how these kids are going to fit in their everyday lineup.

This is why I say 2015 trade deadline and more so 2015 off season is when you could see a trade of one of those kids for a Top starter

Opinions can vary. I don't think their desperate to make a move. But should a good trade arise I think they will make it.

 

[CSF77]

I would test him at the major league level first. Then see how the market unfolds.

If Lester extends and Shields is on the market then go after Shields.

They need a starter that is more proven than Arrieta as an Ace. That is worth trading Baez for.

But my opinion is they need to get the ball rolling this offseason. IE get Bryant, Alcantara, Soler and Baez on the team than trade up the excess to get the team into play off contention.

So if they are looking at:

CF Alcantara
SS Castro
1B Rizzo
3B Bryant
2B Baez
RF Soler
LF Cog/Ruggiano
C Castillo

Rotation:
Arrieta
Wood
Jackson

Pen
Rondon
Ramirez
Strop
Wright
Vizcaino
Rosscup

You are looking to add 2 SP.

If you sign 1 via F/A than you can trade for a 2nd.

At that point you are looking at:
F/A Ace (Lestor or Shields)
Arrieta
# 3 traded for
Wood
Jackson

Now with Jackson they could eat 1/2 and trade him and back fill with Hendricks. Wood has a decent chance of bouncing back.

Regardless getting rotation should be priority #1 because to be honest we could be looking at a team that drop 8+ any night. They need a rotation.

 

[brett05]

No I can, you just have issues.

You are right. My issue is I keep thinking you can put away your bias.

I would put my family that Theo would never trade Castro for Wheeler straight up.

Put? Did you mean bet? He may not. That isn't what is being talked about. That's a different topic altogether.

Seriously man, if you cant talk true ball then just stay on the other side.

Actually speaking "true ball" bro.

I dont mind you and can talk with you sometimes but your hatred takes over perception.

I am pretty sure that the times I express my hatred on the Cubs i openly say I am a hater or a troll, etc, etc. Show me where I have shown hatred to Castro? All I have seen is your "love affair" with him.

Wheeler is nothing worth Castro at this moment.

Wheeler arguably could be worth more. Castro could arguably be worth more. That's the whole point. It's pretty close actually.

Jsut becuse you though Castro would suck the rest of his life doesnt mean you have to be so one sided about (stuff).

I said he would suck the rest of his life? Really? Got any post on that?

One sided? You mean your view point or else? Saying before the Final Vote that I expect Castro to be one of the final five for the NL is one sided and believing he will suck for the rest of his life??? Is there something wrong with you?

You rip on our prospects, but yet say, Castro isnt worth much. lol Fun times.

Any post on me "ripping" on the Cubs prospects? Any posts on me saying Castro isn;t worth much? That straw you use, can you spin it into gold?

 

[brett05]

Having given it a lot of thought I frankly think it's far more likely they trade Baez.

Totally agree

Also, if you remove Baez from the equation, the only prospect piece that doesn't really fit is Russell. Bryant can play 3B. Alcantara can play 2B and you have 4 options in the OF with Almora, Soler, Schwarber and McKinney. As for Russell, you have at least 2 years before he's ready for the MLB. That buys you a bunch of time to get a clearer picture. Maybe Russell doesn't work out. Maybe someone else doesn't. Maybe at 27-28 they consider moving Castro if everything goes right. And at the end of the day if you end up trading Baez for a high tier starter that leaves you in a similar position to what you would have been had you signed Shark. Hypothetically, let's say they go after someone like Mat Latos who's a 2016 FA. If they give up Baez and a McKinney level piece and perhaps something else marginal you're really not losing much if any value and you likely set yourself up in a situation where they likely would take Russell over Baez and have a pitcher they likely can re-sign long term.

Pure speculation obviously but to me that makes the most sense.

Agree here as well. This type of trade for this type of pitcher is probably about 80% of the way there on any trade talks on good pitching.

 

[brett05]

Their not going to be in desperation mode to trade any of their top prospects for a veteran TOR starter this off season.

Their going to spend 2015 figuring out who where and how these kids are going to fit in their everyday lineup.

This is why I say 2015 trade deadline and more so 2015 off season is when you could see a trade of one of those kids for a Top starter

I see both sides on this. You want to see what the specs can do. The problem is that if they don't succeed at a high enough level in the bigs, their value drops below what their values are right now as quality unknowns.

 

[Parade_Rain]

So, clearly this wouldn't be an unprecedented move for Theo to make. Additionally, when you consider the fact that they've barely played Baez outside SS at all it makes me question the motivation. They've gone out of their way to say Castro is a part going forward. So, unless they are outright lying, SS isn't an option and yet Baez remains there. The assumption has been 2B given they've toyed with Alcantara in CF. I'd present a different idea. What if they are mentioning other positions as options yet keeping him at SS the majority of the time as a way of keeping leverage. If it was clearly obvious they had an extra piece they couldn't play in a position they would be dealing from a poor position and with SS clearly being the more valuable position having Baez spend the majority of his time there makes him a more valuable trade piece.
...

Pure speculation obviously but to me that makes the most sense.

That's interesting speculation, beckdawg, but I don't think you mess with Alcantara moving to CF just to create a giant ruse to trade Baez. Just like AA moving to CF very late, Baez is taking GB at 2B right now. I also don't think they signed Manny just for Bryant. They want Baez stick in their lineup, if at all possible, imho.

 

[CSF77]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/chc...md=20140716&content_id=84672914&vkey=news_chc

CHICAGO -- In his first year as the Cubs manager, Rick Renteria has had to find a new closer, deal with the loss of two starting pitchers who were traded, and juggle the lineup after his leadoff man was injured.

One constant from the previous two seasons is that the Cubs find themselves last in the National League Central going into the All-Star break. It's all part of the rebuilding process underway at Wrigley Field.

It seems as if Renteria has been asked more questions about the Minor Leaguers than the big league squad. Will Cubs fans see the top prospects in the second half? Arismendy Alcantara, who has been impressive since he was promoted from Triple-A Iowa, is expected to stay for at least the first series of the second half. We'll see.

Five key developments

1. Starlin Castro is back
After a difficult 2013, when he hit .245, Castro rebounded to earn another All-Star nod. The shortstop has thrived in the cleanup spot and played better defense. He's worked hard, and it's paid off.

2. Anthony Rizzo can hit left-handers
Southpaws held Rizzo to a .189 average last year, but this season, he's produced a higher batting average vs. left-handed pitchers than right-handers. Rizzo also has bounced back from a difficult first full season in the big leagues.

3. Jake Arrieta has ace potential
Arrieta was slowed this spring by tightness in his right shoulder and the cautious approach has paid off. In back to back starts, he had a no-hitter through six innings. With Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel gone via trade, Arrieta is now No. 1 in rotation.

4. The Cubs still need a closer
Jose Veras didn't work and was released. Kyuji Fujikawa is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Neil Ramirez is still developing. Hector Rondon is learning on the job.

5. Edwin Jackson continues to be an enigma
Jackson has the same amount of losses (10) at the All-Star break this season as he did a year ago at the break. And a year ago, he led the NL in losses with 18. It's been puzzling.

Five storylines for second half

1. Will young pitchers take advantage of opportunities?
With Samardzija and Hammel gone, the Cubs have two openings and the options include Dallas Beeler, Kyle Hendricks, Tsuyoshi Wada, Chris Rusin and newly acquired Dan Straily. Let the auditions begin. The Cubs need a fourth starter on July 22.

2. Which one of top prospects gets to the big leagues first?
Alcantara was called up to sub for Darwin Barney, and he did so well, the team decided to keep him more than the originally planned two days. Who's next? The Cubs have said Kris Bryant, who is leading the Minor Leagues in home runs, will stay at Triple-A Iowa. Is Javier Baez ready? This season, the spotlight has been on the kids more than the big league team, and it's likely to continue.

3. Who will be traded next?
The Cubs jumped the market by dealing Samardzija and Hammel on the Fourth of July, and they'll likely be active right up to the Trade Deadline. Teams are looking at infielders like Luis Valbuena and Barney, as well as some of the Cubs' relievers. That can create some anxiety in the clubhouse.

4. Can Mike Olt reach the Mendoza Line?
Olt finished the first half leading all NL rookies in home runs and RBIs, but he wasn't close to batting his weight. The good news is that Olt is healthy. He needs to make the mental adjustments to deal with big league pitching.

5. Can they find a closer?
The Cubs do have some power arms in the bullpen in Rondon, Ramirez, Pedro Strop and Brian Schlitter . They're hoping one of their in-house candidates emerges as the man to get the final out.

Along the same lines as I was thinking. First series they will stay status que. The 13 game run they will need to run 5 SP.

Valbuena IMO will stay. They have said that Bryant will spend the year in AAA. Baez is the next in line for promotion. He has been quoted saying he is taking GB's at 2B.

They have been talking about Barney in trade views. This leads me to believe they will be actively trying to push Barney over the next 2 weeks.

Closer role they brought up Fuji's name. He is in Azl with Bonifacio rehabbing. I see him as some one to learn from vs a closer. Long term I see Ramirez closing.


I'm seeing with Bonifacio still rehabbing them keeping Alcantara in CF with Barney at 2B for showcasing for scouts with the purpose to sell him. After he goes then they recall Bonifacio and do the same thing with him. Alcantara and Bonifacio should swap between both 2B and CF to show case Bonficaio's versatility.

Sad thing is most teams most likely will want Alcantara instead.... F-them. :flipa:

After all of that ends which could go into Aug I would expect Baez called up. How it sorts out only time will tell.

I do not see them actively going after a SP until the offseason. They are not in the play off hunt this year. Next year they will be able to address their needs better and can weigh if giving up a pick is worth signing a starter.

Knowing Theo he might just go over seas again to fill 1 spot and stick with Hendricks for next year. Let the team get good then use his assets at the trade deadline to make a legit run.

That makes more sense to me. Pointless in a last place year to trade out.

Next year seeing Alcantara in CF, Baez at 2B Bryant at 3B. Soler called up mid year and Russell on the verge they will have surplus ready to play where they can make a legit offer to get a TOR.

 

[chibears55]

I see both sides on this. You want to see what the specs can do. The problem is that is they don't succeed at a high enough level in the bigs, their value drops below what their values are right now as quality unknowns.

Im not saying all their prospects.

I just see them looking at baez and bryant as their Trout/Harper type players so for now their untouchables.

I could see them trading Russell if the return is favorable. Just feel they have a year or so before they need to figure out if he has a spot on team or not.
So , no rush to move him just to unload.

Soler Almora and Alcantara, im sure theyd like to wait and see if they can become a part of their own core.
Only way they move them sooner if the return is for someone who already established and can step in right away for the long term


Everybody else is probably fair game if their getting what they need in return

 

[brett05]

Im not saying all their prospects.

I just see them looking at baez and bryant as their Trout/Harper type players so for now their untouchables.

I could see them trading Russell if the return is favorable. Just feel they have a year or so before they need to figure out if he has a spot on team or not.
So , no rush to move him just to unload.

Soler Almora and Alcantara, im sure theyd like to wait and see if they can become a part of their own core.
Only way they move them sooner if the return is for someone who already established and can step in right away for the long term


Everybody else is probably fair game if their getting what they need in return

I can see all of that.

 

[Boobaby1]

Maybe not. Baez will be called up likely in 2015 for good. If there's going to be a trade then it makes sense to do it in the offseason when the cost of pitching is less vs at the trade deadline. Presumably, if a trade occurs they aren't going to want prospects most likely and instead will likely target MLB pitching.

And to me, the only way Baez or Castro stay and not be traded, is if the Cubs land a big fish like Lester or Scherzer. Proof has shown that other teams will give big contracts and add things the Cubs don't want to give, making it even harder for them to sign. Also, notice how they went after Arrieta, Wood, Sanchez, Tanaka? The common denominator was youth. Jackson was signed at 29, but he was no huge fish either. He was more like a crap.......I mean carp.

So the best avenue to get TOR pitching, would be via the trade, and the top two (assuming Rizzo and Bryant are off limits) are Castro and Baez IMO. Castro is proven, and Baez has the minor league high ceiling name with power to boot. Something the Mets have been looking for apparently at SS to upgrade.

Generally, as someone else noted, prospects for prospects rarely happen. So, one would have to think that in the case of the Mets/Cubs, the starting points would be Castro for their presumed untouchable Syndergaard (not saying that the pot wouldn't have to be sweetened) is one side, and Wheeler for the Cubs presumed untouchable Baez (again, not saying the pot wouldn't have to be sweetened).

BTW, as I noted before, their is nothing wrong defensively with Tejada. He would be a decent throw-in if it came to fruition, and people need to realize that neither Baez nor Castro are going to be the reasons the Cubs succeed. One player does not a team make.

 

[CSF77]

They could just run Baez at 2B until Russell is ready then move Baez to LF.

There is no reason to trade until there is no spot to put some one.

Even Schwarber they could just let him develop as a catcher. No reason to rush his bat with surplus above him.


It is better to be forced to trade to open playing time vs trading out early. To be honest trading bats early is stupid.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I see them trading Vogelbach before Baez.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

They could just run Baez at 2B until Russell is ready then move Baez to LF.

There is no reason to trade until there is no spot to put some one.

Even Schwarber they could just let him develop as a catcher. No reason to rush his bat with surplus above him.


It is better to be forced to trade to open playing time vs trading out early. To be honest trading bats early is stupid.

This!

I would be shocked if anyone gets traded before given a chance to play the BIGS. Also from what Theo has said he would be more open to paying a pitcher then he would in trying to trade for one. Why lose assets when you will have plenty of money by then and your position players will still be very cheap?

 

[SilenceS]

This!

I would be shocked if anyone gets traded before given a chance to play the BIGS. Also from what Theo has said he would be more open to paying a pitcher then he would in trying to trade for one. Why lose assets when you will have plenty of money by then and your position players will still be very cheap?

Been saying this for awhile and why trade out a core player when no one has taken his spot from him. Must be my blinders. Maybe Castro is worth Chris volstad?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[chibears55]

This!

I would be shocked if anyone gets traded before given a chance to play the BIGS. Also from what Theo has said he would be more open to paying a pitcher then he would in trying to trade for one. Why lose assets when you will have plenty of money by then and your position players will still be very cheap?

That the thing.. looking at what epstein n hoyer has done the last couple years via draft / trade was load up with top hitting prospects. I think the plan is simply field a team with these kids and look via FA for Arms.

Theyve also loaded up the last couple drafts with arms in later rounds , that they could luck out with having one or two emerge from there or use those younger arms to deal for a veteran arm especially with deadline deals.

 

[dabears253313]

I see them trading Vogelbach before Baez.

I think they should trade Vogelbach since they have Rizzo on the MLB roster.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

I think they should trade Vogelbach since they have Rizzo on the MLB roster.

That makes more sense, but they will likely wait a bit longer to see how Vogelbach does in more advanced levels.