Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

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CSF77

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1.5 million is too much for a 4th OF?

How many vets in MLB make less? Any?

They could just plug Szczur in as a 4th OF for 500k. Then Watkins has covered every position except C and P for 500k. Valikia same boat as Watkins 500k.

That is 1.5 mil and they cover more D positions to provide a more flexible bench vs a sub par hitting OF.
 

CSF77

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What I mean by Sub-par:

wOBA

Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is one of the most important and popular catch-all offensive statistics. It was created by Tom Tango (and notably used in “The Book”) to measure a hitter’s overall offensive value, based on the relative values of each distinct offensive event.

wOBA is based on a simple concept: Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes that they are. On-base percentage does too, but does one better by including other ways of reaching base such as walking or being hit by a pitch. Slugging percentage weights hits, but not accurately (Is a double worth twice as much as a single? In short, no) and again ignores other ways of reaching base. On-base plus slugging (OPS) does attempt to combine the different aspects of hitting into one metric, but it assumes that one percentage point of SLG is the same as that of OBP. In reality, a handy estimate is that OBP is around twice as valuable than SLG (the exact ratio is x1.8). In short, OPS is asking the right question, but we can arrive at a more accurate number quite easily.

Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.

Calculation:

The wOBA formula for the 2013 season was:

wOBA = (0.690×uBB + 0.722×HBP + 0.888×1B + 1.271×2B + 1.616×3B +
2.101×HR) / (AB + BB – IBB + SF + HBP)

These weights change on a yearly basis, so you can find the specific wOBA weights for every year from 1871 to the present here.

To calculate wOBA, find the weights for the year you are interested in and multiply each weight by the player’s corresponding statistics. For example, in 2013 Mike Trout had 100 unintentional walks, 9 HBP, 115 singles, 39 doubles, 9 triples, and 27 home runs. If you multiple each by it’s corresponding weight and then divide that number by the sum of his at bats, walks (excluding IBB), hit by pitches, and sacrifice flies, you get .423, or his wOBA for the season.

Why wOBA:

One of the most common questions people ask when presented with a new statistic like wOBA is why they should use it when the basic triple slash line statistics (average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage) work just fine or work even better when using them to form OPS?

Simply put, OPS and wOBA will lead you to very similar conclusions in most situations, but if you care about determining how well a player contributes to run scoring, wOBA is a more accurate representation of that contribution. OPS undervalues getting on base relative to hitting for extra bases and does not properly weigh each type of extra base hit.

Additionally, individuals do not often calculate statistics by hand and will use a spreadsheet if they like doing it themselves or will make use of a website such as FanGraphs to provide that information. OBP or SLG might be easier to calculate with pencil and paper, but wOBA is extremely easy to find and use on our site, meaning any computational costs of moving to wOBA are minuscule.

How to Use wOBA:

One of the beauties of wOBA is that it is extremely easy to use once you learn the basics. League average wOBA is always scaled to league average OBP, so if you know what a good OBP is, you know what a good wOBA is. Below are specific averages for the current season, but typically an average hitter will finish the season with a wOBA of around .320.

wOBA is also quite easy to convert to Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA), or the non-park adjusted version of Batting Runs. In other words, you can convert wOBA to a cumulative run value above average quickly. Simply take the player’s wOBA and subtract out the league average wOBA, then divide by the wOBA scale and multiple that by the number of plate appearances. Both league wOBA and the wOBA scale can be found here.

((wOBA-League wOBA)/wOBA Scale)*PA = wRAA

For example, Mike Trout had a .423 wOBA in 716 PA in 2013 and the league wOBA was .314 and the wOBA scale was 1.277.

((.423-.314)/1.277)*716 = 61.1 wRAA

In other words, before making park and league adjustments, Mike Trout’s was worth about 61 more runs than the average offensive player. You can’t make such an easy conversion using OPS.

A good rule of thumb is that 20 points of wOBA is worth about 10 runs above average per 600 PA. This is not a precise measurement and specific calculations are always better, but if you’re looking for an approximate rule of thumb, this may be useful.

Context:

Please note that the following chart is meant as an estimate, and that league-average wOBA varies on a year-by-year basis. It is set to the same scale as OBP, so league-average wOBA in a given year should be very close to the league-average OBP. To see the league-average wOBA for every year from 1901 to the present, check the FanGraphs leaderboards.

Rules of Thumb

Rating wOBA
Excellent .400
Great .370
Above Average .340
Average .320
Below Average .310
Poor .300
Awful .290

Sweeney: .268 falls below awful......
 

chibears55

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@TheCCO: Jorge Soler with his first Triple-A home run, a two-run shot to CF with Kris Bryant on board in the sixth inning #Cubs @IowaCubs
 

chibears55

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@TheCCO: #Cubs land 8 in @MLBPipeline Top 100:
Bryant (4)
Baez (6)
Russell (7)
Alcantara (37)
Almora (41)
Soler (54)
Edwards (60)
Schwarber (79)
 

Rankin906

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Cubs own best farm system?

What do you guys think of the Cubs owning 3 of the top 10 prospects in baseball, and 8 out of the top 100 according to MLB.com?
 

TL1961

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What do you guys think of the Cubs owning 3 of the top 10 prospects in baseball, and 8 out of the top 100 according to MLB.com?

Well, I like that on MLB they just discussed two of our prospects, using Larkin and Sheffield as guys they were compared to, and then said we have a guy ranked ahead of them both. That doesn't suck.

As we all know, we don't have much pitching in the minors. But one guy on MLB just said we have the best collection of hitting talent he has ever seen. Again, doesn't suck.
 

dabynsky

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Well, I like that on MLB they just discussed two of our prospects, using Larkin and Sheffield as guys they were compared to, and then said we have a guy ranked ahead of them both. That doesn't suck.

As we all know, we don't have much pitching in the minors. But one guy on MLB just said we have the best collection of hitting talent he has ever seen. Again, doesn't suck.

If Baez is being comped to Sheff then that shows how much that list is worth. The only thing Baez has in common with Sheff is the bat speed/waggle (though the waggle has really calmed down if you watch him in Iowa this year). Sheffield had amazing control of the strike zone that Baez will never touch.
 

SilenceS

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If Baez is being comped to Sheff then that shows how much that list is worth. The only thing Baez has in common with Sheff is the bat speed/waggle (though the waggle has really calmed down if you watch him in Iowa this year). Sheffield had amazing control of the strike zone that Baez will never touch.

They both came out of Florida and were SS with unreal bat speed. People still hold on to that.

Also, I still have no idea how Sheff never won an MVP. He was only second once and he put up some insane numbers. It shows how much batting has dropped in the majors.
 

Boobaby1

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They both came out of Florida and were SS with unreal bat speed. People still hold on to that.

Also, I still have no idea how Sheff never won an MVP. He was only second once and he put up some insane numbers. It shows how much batting has dropped in the majors.

The Cubs are going to need some .300 plus hitters out of the group of prospects. If I had to pick, I would say that Soler, Bryant, and Russell have the best shots. Of course, you never know whose average will rank above that mark until they are all in the line-up together as Rizzo and Castro have no protection now. That all could change.

I feel Baez will have the lowest average of them all because of his aggressive nature. Hopefully he can harness that and use it to his advantage.

If Baez is a .260 to .270ish hitter with 25-30 bombs and batting out of the 6-hole, I will gladly accept that.
 

SilenceS

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The Cubs are going to need some .300 plus hitters out of the group of prospects. If I had to pick, I would say that Soler, Bryant, and Russell have the best shots. Of course, you never know whose average will rank above that mark until they are all in the line-up together as Rizzo and Castro have no protection now. That all could change.

I feel Baez will have the lowest average of them all because of his aggressive nature. Hopefully he can harness that and use it to his advantage.

If Baez is a .260 to .270ish hitter with 25-30 bombs and batting out of the 6-hole, I will gladly accept that.

I dont think Bryant has a realistic shot at .300. People are going to point to his minors stats, but I dont see it. To much swing and miss and contact rate is only around 63%. Soler would be the one I would think could come close to that. Russell I see as a .280 ish hitter with 20-25 homeruns. People talk to much about his D. His bat will be better then his D. Baez is an anomaly. He could bat .250 or he could bat close to .300. The ability he has to absolutely kill balls will always allow his BABIP to be higher. Baez outs are usually hard hit balls. His contact rate is low like Bryant, but he is showing he is driving that up. We will see. I dont think we need any .300 hitter out of that group. They all have insane power. Thats what they will get paid to do.
 

ZAN

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Outside of Colorado's inflated BA, Detroit is leading the league in BA as a team at .275 right now. And that's a World Series contention team. I just ask that the kids hit .275 +/- .015...and we will all be fine.
 

chibears55

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@TheCCO: Prospect update ... MT @jjcoop36 Cubs' Addison Russell since Thursday 12-for-24, 3 HR, 3 2B. Cubs' impact prospect depth is insane.

AAA promotion soon ; ))
 

chibears55

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@BornOnThirdCubs: Almora 4-for-6 tonight... nice to see him break out at Tennessee.

@TheCCO: More info MT @jjcoop36 Also lots of Cubs on hot streaks. July OPS #: Baez (1.008),Bryant (.920),Soler (1.538),Russell (.868),Almora (1.044).
 

Boobaby1

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Outside of Colorado's inflated BA, Detroit is leading the league in BA as a team at .275 right now. And that's a World Series contention team. I just ask that the kids hit .275 +/- .015...and we will all be fine.

True, but ideally you would like a couple of .300 plus hitters like Detroit has, to offset some of those .200 hitters like Detroit has. Generally, most good teams have a couple of .300 hitters on the team.

Even in 07' and 08', A-Ram and D-Lee were above .300 and it's nice to have a couple of big players in that area. Much like V-Mart and Cabrera are with the Tigers.
 

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True, but ideally you would like a couple of .300 plus hitters like Detroit has, to offset some of those .200 hitters like Detroit has. Generally, most good teams have a couple of .300 hitters on the team.

Even in 07' and 08', A-Ram and D-Lee were above .300 and it's nice to have a couple of big players in that area. Much like V-Mart and Cabrera are with the Tigers.

Neither were above .300 in 2008, but right about 2007.
 

Boobaby1

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Neither were above .300 in 2008, but right about 2007.

Yeap! My bad, but they were the studs nonetheless, and it's nice when your studs are in that area versus lets say where Soriano's numbers were.

I hope that when these kids start to arrive, that the Cubs players will finally get some protection and therefore, the averages will increase.

Not putting the cart before the horse, but where is the weak spot in the potential line-up that could feature Alcantara, Baez, Rizzo, Bryant, a free agent possibly, Soler and Castro?
 

JP Hochbaum

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Yeap! My bad, but they were the studs nonetheless, and it's nice when your studs are in that area versus lets say where Soriano's numbers were.

I hope that when these kids start to arrive, that the Cubs players will finally get some protection and therefore, the averages will increase.

Not putting the cart before the horse, but where is the weak spot in the potential line-up that could feature Alcantara, Baez, Rizzo, Bryant, a free agent possibly, Soler and Castro?

I think the .300 hitter will be Almora, Schwarber and Soler. I think they make the ideal guys to have in the order between the other power guys.

I see the potential lineup as Almora, Alcantara, Soler, Bryant, Schwarber, Baez, Rizzo, Castro, this is assuming Schwarber and Bryant can stick at their positions.

But I am not hopeful any of this would happen, just saying this lineup would be sick as hell and provide perfect balance, IMO. and this doesn't even include Russell, McKinney and several others with obvious potential to make the team.

Ideally Russell replaces Alcantra in the two hole I guess and Alcantra takes on the Zobrist role. Then you move Castro or Baez to third.

**** the possibilities are endless!
 

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Kevonte Mitchell looks like he might be a potential late round steal right now. It's some what small sample size but he's hitting .293/.369/.328 in 15 games and 65 PAs with 5 SB. He's playing CF now but was drafted as a 3B/SS. Supposedly he has a lot of power though it's raw and he's yet to show it. With that kind of power and speed combo he could be quite interesting especially in CF even if he eventually ends up at a corner OF spot.
 

dabynsky

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Kevonte Mitchell looks like he might be a potential late round steal right now. It's some what small sample size but he's hitting .293/.369/.328 in 15 games and 65 PAs with 5 SB. He's playing CF now but was drafted as a 3B/SS. Supposedly he has a lot of power though it's raw and he's yet to show it. With that kind of power and speed combo he could be quite interesting especially in CF even if he eventually ends up at a corner OF spot.

He was an overslot guy. Didn't have the flash of Gilliam or Cantu picks, but he is a solid athlete (basketball I believe as well). He is a name to keep an eye on.
 

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CJ Edwards prob to Tenn next. Reports on Baez at 2nd all good, per Jed Hoyer
 
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