Of course the assumptions are based on odds -- baseball is a game of averages. Everyone is aware that a majority of prospects never reach their full potential, which is precisely why the Cubs are going about recreating their team infrastructure in their current manner. My logic says that the more resources dedicated to the minor league system give the Cubs a better chance at developing players from that system, as opposed to limiting those chances by giving away compensatory picks from free agency signings.
Not everyone is aware that a majority of prospects never reach their full potential. You have people already posting how the 2015 opening day roster will have THREE prospects in it.
My logic says that developing more resources to BOTH the major league roster as well as the minor league system is better than putting your eggs all in one basket.
Oh my god, a compensatory draft pick!!!! :fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap:
The Cubs first round pick the last few years has been protected which means the most they would have had to give up in exchange for a Type A Free Agent is a compensatory first round or second round draft pick.
A Type A free agent will probably give you at least average major league production 90% of the time. A second round draft pick will give you average major league production probably about 5% of the time.
So had they signed Fielder a couple years ago that means they wouldn't have drafted Pierce Johnson.
Going back to the year 2000, the most productive 2nd round draft picks the Cubs have ended up with is Bobby Hill, who was only productive for the team cause he was traded for Aramis Ramirez and DJ Lemathieu who got traded for Ian Stewart.
I will take the Type A free agent over any of that.
Seems like you'd rather have the 5% lottery ticket.
JosMin said:
You, however, keep needling the fact that "MOST OF THESE GUYS DON'T PAN OUT!!!!!!!!!!" We all know that. But what's wrong with stark optimism? We're fans, after all. Isn't that the point of being fan?
Again, clearly everyone does not know that or we wouldn't have to read about projected lineups for next year that include 3 prospects, 2 of which have barely even made a dent at AA at the most.
There is a difference between stark optimism and being completely unrealistic. Most fall into the latter category.
What is wrong with being realistic and not believing in fairy tales, Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy?
JosMin said:
You feel like the Cubs should be dedicating more resources to the major league team, even though they have way more holes that can be filled in one (or even two) off-seasons.
But somehow the minor league system will fill all these holes when signing actual major league players can't??
JosMin said:
I feel like the Cubs need to build through the minor leagues and supplement any roster holes with sparing free agent signings (Braves, Cardinals, Rays, etc). You want the Cubs to feel more comfortable to spend big on filling multiple holes and leave any openings for the prospects who're closer to making it to Wrigley (what the Red Sox did when they called up Bogaerts after already having Stephen Drew, what the Rangers did with the Fielder/Kinsler swap knowing they had Profar ready to go at a middle infield spot).
Differing opinions.
The Braves and Cardinals are far mote active in FA than people care to recognize cause it fits their theory.
They started their run back in the early 90's with FA signings like Terry Pendleton and Greg Maddux then helped keep the success going with other FA signings like Andres Gallaraga and Brian Jordan to name a couple.
Just last year they gave BJ Upton a big FA deal and basically took on Justin's salary in a trade which is close to signing him as a FA and often will trade for players that other teams can't/won't pay for like Tim Hudson and Dan Uggla.
The Cardinals have also recently signed players like Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran to FA deals.
Have both teams done an exceptional job with their farm systems? Of course, but it is just that. An exceptional job. It is the exception to the rule, not the rule. Because these teams have done it, it doesn't mean that other teams will be able to duplicate the same success. If it was that easy, everyone would have done it.
The Rays are run the way the are because they have to. Not because they think it is the best way, but because it is the only way they can be run. The Cubs do not have near the limitations in place financially that the Rays do, yet you and others seem to think it is smartest to limit the Cubs resources.
And yes I, and others, would prefer to see the Cubs run like the Red Sox and Rangers.
Big boy clubs that have had quite a bit of success at the major league level lately. Not sure why that is such an absurd thing to want.
Some of us dont think it is right to have a top 5 revenue team, that is charging top 5 ticket prices to be run like a small market, tight budget team like Tampa, Kansas City or Pittsburgh or to literally waste multiple seasons at the major league level.
This is the third season in a row that the major league season will be a complete and total waste that many people will celebrate as a success cause they will end up with a top 5 draft pick while other teams will get to celebrate a trip to the playoffs.