Cubs Spring training thread

[TC in Mississippi]

The good news is that Lester's pitch repertoire is less dependent on velocity and so he's likely to remain effective through his mid-30's. As long as he's able to locate his cutter and drop enough curves to keep people honest he'll be fine. He may need to mix back in the changeup that he rarely throws as his FB declines, but the overall point is that guys with good cutters tend to pitch well for a long time. Lester strikes me as one of those guys whose desire to keep playing will fizzle long before his body truly gives out on him.

I agree with you, I think he'll pitch well for several years, just not sure how long he's a 1.

On another note if Eddie Butler is another Arrieta-like turnaround that will huge for this team. He's looked good this spring and is pitching today. Let him get a nice rhythm going in AAA and hopefully he succeeds. This was a blue chip prospect as recently as 2 years ago and Colorado is tough on most pitchers. i want to see that sweet changeup that propelled him through the minors come back though. Does anyone know if he's been throwing that pitch this spring?

 

[brett05]

Pretty much right...

One would think if a team going to trade away an under 30 established TOR their most likely going to want top pitching prospects in return...
I'm sure a such teams would take Jiminez but they'd probably want some top pitching prospects in return which the Cubs don't really have..

I just don't think Epstein going to unload all or most of his top hitting prospects on 1 pitcher.

Also

My other thinking on Jimenez, he just 19/20 this season..

I just think the Cubs would be foolish to give him up ..
Kid a monster now and looks like he only going get better as he gets more experience and matures more in a couple years ...

Also someone mentioned he a LFer, he has been playing some RF in ST and last year in A ball..
So, it looks like their giving him that experience to play RF if that where they need him down the road.


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They gave up a pretty decent guy plus for a rental closer. I trust they'll do it if needed.

 

[DanTown]

They gave up a pretty decent guy plus for a rental closer. I trust they'll do it if needed.

Rental closer is drastically more important to a team's playoff chances (due to leverage and ability to pitch every night) in the playoffs than a starter is.

 

[beckdawg]

bleacher nation had some article about pitching and the article they cited basically said the cubs FO basically looks at pitching year to year rather than as a long term plan because pitchers get hurt/don't develop. That's interesting in that the impression has always been they are trying. But it's likely they largely just worry year to year while developing their own players. It might also explain why they have targeted lower upside guys like Hendricks/Williams/Morrison....etc who are quick to the major types.

 

[beckdawg]

I didn't realize Youk was a cubs coach. Definitely a decent guy to model yourself after as a hitter.

 

[brett05]

Rental closer is drastically more important to a team's playoff chances (due to leverage and ability to pitch every night) in the playoffs than a starter is.

I disagree with that. Give me the ace starter every time.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I disagree with that. Give me the ace starter every time.

It's a tough call. My first instinct is to agree with you. After all the Giants won a World Series on the back of one starter in Bumgarner but I also can't discount the impact that Andrew Miller had on Cleveland last year. Another starter would not have gotten them to the World Series and certainly not into extras in game 7. Then look at the Dodgers who had both a lights out closer and the best starter in a generation and they lost in the NLCS. So in the end I don't think there's an easy answer here, it's probably more situational than anything else. Despite the fact that Chapman wasn't the greatest of the great (he was very good) the Cubs don't win the World Series without him so while Torres was a high price to pay what is the right price for a World Series Championship?

 

[Diehardfan]

While starters, TOR or not, are important...I'll take a shutdown closer any day of the week. For a large portion of the season, the starter can only help you every 5th day...a little more in the playoffs. The closer can be instrumental 4 or 5 times a week...from beginning to end. The balancing factor is that it's much easier to acquire or even develop your own closer than getting your hands on a reliable starting pitchers.

 

[brett05]

It's a tough call. My first instinct is to agree with you. After all the Giants won a World Series on the back of one starter in Bumgarner but I also can't discount the impact that Andrew Miller had on Cleveland last year. Another starter would not have gotten them to the World Series and certainly not into extras in game 7. Then look at the Dodgers who had both a lights out closer and the best starter in a generation and they lost in the NLCS. So in the end I don't think there's an easy answer here, it's probably more situational than anything else. Despite the fact that Chapman wasn't the greatest of the great (he was very good) the Cubs don't win the World Series without him so while Torres was a high price to pay what is the right price for a World Series Championship?

I'm not complaining about what was paid by the Cubs even if they had lost which they did not. I'm showing that the price of TOR is higher than great closers.

 

[brett05]

While starters, TOR or not, are important...I'll take a shutdown closer any day of the week. For a large portion of the season, the starter can only help you every 5th day...a little more in the playoffs. The closer can be instrumental 4 or 5 times a week...from beginning to end. The balancing factor is that it's much easier to acquire or even develop your own closer than getting your hands on a reliable starting pitchers.

A starting pitcher affects baseball about the same as anyone else over a five game period of time as compared to hitters. Closers need special situations to get used which may or may not relax in the playoffs. Your argument about it being much easier to acquire or develop a closer goes to my point that a top line starter is so much more valuable and nets appropriately because of that value and rarity.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I'm not complaining about what was paid by the Cubs even if they had lost which they did not. I'm showing that the price of TOR is higher than great closers.

Fair enough. By the way I was trying to think of a cost controlled starter with TOR potential that was traded for hitting and thought of one in Shelby Miller. It hasn't worked out so well for Arizona but it's also easy to forget that after 2015 Miller was considered a future #1 and had just put up great numbers on a very bad team.

 

[brett05]

Fair enough. By the way I was trying to think of a cost controlled starter with TOR potential that was traded for hitting and thought of one in Shelby Miller. It hasn't worked out so well for Arizona but it's also easy to forget that after 2015 Miller was considered a future #1 and had just put up great numbers on a very bad team.

That's really when pitching really ended the argument on what is the most valuable. Since then the price has gone way, way up.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

That's really when pitching really ended the argument on what is the most valuable. Since then the price has gone way, way up.

No it hasn't. It's just that almost nobody has moved anybody since then and there haven't been any FA worth the big money. Yes Sale was traded to Boston but the Red Sox way overpaid and they had to as their window is only about 3 years at this point and they know way more about Price's health than they are letting on. I think the Mets will trade a pitcher this year if they fall out of contention, Sonny Gray will be moved is healthy and you may see others as well. Shelby Miller will likely be on the market if he turns it around. Ask me in a year about the pitching market.

 

[brett05]

No it hasn't. It's just that almost nobody has moved anybody since then and there haven't been any FA worth the big money. Yes Sale was traded to Boston but the Red Sox way overpaid and they had to as their window is only about 3 years at this point and they know way more about Price's health than they are letting on. I think the Mets will trade a pitcher this year if they fall out of contention, Sonny Gray will be moved is healthy and you may see others as well. Shelby Miller will likely be on the market if he turns it around. Ask me in a year about the pitching market.

It may come back down, but it has gone way up. Examples are the aforementioned Miller, Sale, A. Miller, Chapman. I think you'll see a large haul for Q as he gets moved as well.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

It may come back down, but it has gone way up. Examples are the aforementioned Miller, Sale, A. Miller, Chapman. I think you'll see a large haul for Q as he gets moved as well.

Miller and Chapman were in season trades for relievers which as DanTown pointed out often are moves of desperation for contending teams at the deadline. I think both Cleveland and the Cubs overpaid for their guys but when you make it and/or win the World Series nothing is really an overpay is it? Chapman in particular as NY got back a much bigger piece in Torres than they traded to Cincy. I do think Quintana will bring in a nice haul at the deadline but the word this offseason was they wanted more than they got for Adam Eaton and teams were not biting. Plus your team really needs some near ready OF help and/or help at catcher in any deal for him, certainly not more pitching at this point. If the White Sox get a couple of nice hitting prospects and more for Quintana I'll pretty much give them an A+ for the start of the rebuild and a real chance to compete again as early as 2019.

 

[DanTown]

Teams are trading top prospects for relievers with controllable years (Giles, Kimbrel, Miller, Chapman) similar if not exceeding starters. I'm not saying you don't need starters but upgrading from a guy who gives you six innings of three run ball to a guy who goes seven and gives up two (if you're lucky) in one game out of four isn't as valuable as a guy who can pitch theee to six outs every game and give up very few runs.

How many times did Chapman pitch in super high leverage and then he even failed a bunch too. Do the Cubs even win a WS if Chapman is on the Nationals or Giants?

 

[brett05]

Miller and Chapman were in season trades for relievers which as DanTown pointed out often are moves of desperation for contending teams at the deadline. I think both Cleveland and the Cubs overpaid for their guys but when you make it and/or win the World Series nothing is really an overpay is it? Chapman in particular as NY got back a much bigger piece in Torres than they traded to Cincy. I do think Quintana will bring in a nice haul at the deadline but the word this offseason was they wanted more than they got for Adam Eaton and teams were not biting. Plus your team really needs some near ready OF help and/or help at catcher in any deal for him, certainly not more pitching at this point. If the White Sox get a couple of nice hitting prospects and more for Quintana I'll pretty much give them an A+ for the start of the rebuild and a real chance to compete again as early as 2019.

I agree with all of this. But honestly if they get less than what Eaton brought in, someone needs to step up for responsibility on that one.

 

[brett05]

Teams are trading top prospects for relievers with controllable years (Giles, Kimbrel, Miller, Chapman) similar if not exceeding starters. I'm not saying you don't need starters but upgrading from a guy who gives you six innings of three run ball to a guy who goes seven and gives up two (if you're lucky) in one game out of four isn't as valuable as a guy who can pitch theee to six outs every game and give up very few runs.

How many times did Chapman pitch in super high leverage and then he even failed a bunch too. Do the Cubs even win a WS if Chapman is on the Nationals or Giants?

1) It's a massive misnomer that closers pitch more than one inning.
2) They still make the playoffs as the NL Central Champs. I think they very well could have won, but it matters not.
3) The starter is way more valuable than the reliever because of the shortage you previously stated.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I agree with all of this. But honestly if they get less than what Eaton brought in, someone needs to step up for responsibility on that one.

Yeah, but they got way too much for Eaton. It was a classic fleecing. Good on your guys but still.

 

[brett05]

Yeah, but they got way too much for Eaton. It was a classic fleecing. Good on your guys but still.

Isn't that what the Cubs have been doing for years? And quite well actually.

Honestly the White Sox should get a Chris Sale package for Q.