Cubs Spring training thread

[TC in Mississippi]

Don't worry, lesser pitchers like Jose aren't settling for something as low as Eloy.

I guess the agreement only goes so far lol. I'd hardly call Eloy a low prospect. He's anywhere between 17 and 24 on prospect lists depending on who you listen to and if he excels this year he's a lock to be a top ten guy by the fall.

 

[brett05]

I guess the agreement only goes so far lol. I'd hardly call Eloy a low prospect. He's anywhere between 17 and 24 on prospect lists depending on who you listen to and if he excels this year he's a lock to be a top ten guy by the fall.

Oh I hear ya, but I am not calling Eloy a low spec, Q is going to land a top 5 guy in the package that takes him away. His youth, contract, and just top 10-15 type pitcher over the past 4 years demands that much IMO.

 

[chibears55]

I'll bite, how? Yes they could sign pitching. If they pass on Arrieta, which I think they both should and will, they could sign Yu Darvish or Johnny Cueto (who will no doubt opt out of his deal after this year) but without another cost controlled option ion the rotation besides Hendricks they'll have a hard time paying the position players as they start to come due. Phase 1 was clearly pay for pitching and ride young, cheap talent augmented by a few veterans while phase 2 is just as clearly going to be to build a (mostly) cost controlled pitching staff while they pay for their positional talent. I don't believe this is going to be a team that ever goes much over the luxury tax and if they play their hand right they shouldn't have to.To follow this plan they'll have to trade young talent for pitching. I see little way around it.

They have other prospects in their system besides Jimenez to trade for pitching plus players on current roster they can move if their looking to add an established under 30 SP if one comes available..




Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[chibears55]

And that plus a quarter will get you a cup of coffee. You aren't getting TOR with sub specs. Sorry.

Cubs aren't trading Jimenez unless it's for a young bonafide TOR starter that under control for years and I doubt many teams if any are giving them up.
Plus
If a team willing to move a young TOR SP they most certainly will be looking for multiple high ranked Specs in return in which I believe Theo will not unload his system for 1 SP no matter how good he can be..


Cubs will probably be looking to trade their other top prospect hitters for teams top prospect pitching..

Having an under 30 SP like Sales become available via trade is far and few and only really happens if a team dumping , so the chances of that happening this off season is slim unless someone knows of a team with a Sales like SP that going to unload after this season...






Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[beckdawg]

I don't get why people think Eloy is going to replace Heyward. He's not a RFer. He's almost exclusively played LF as a cub and most of the scouting i've read on him suggest he doesn't have the range you would want out of a RF. Having him and presumably Schwarber in your corners will make your OF pretty limited. In all honesty, I think it's more likely you might see Bryant move to RF, Baez to 3B and Happ eventually becomes their 2B if Heyward did leave which as I've mentioned before I don't see happening because he's either good enough to keep in which case you aren't dealing him or he's bad enough you can't trade him. Maybe he can opt out but is there any guarantee he gets more money? I think he'd have to play pretty great the next two years to warrant more than he currently makes.

If you assume there will be a trade of one of Happ/Jiminez as part of a larger package, teams are going to demand Jiminez's upside. Happ's a good prospect but he doesn't have an unlimited ceiling. In other words, you're probably not building a team around him. In my view, you are picking one of Jiminez or Schwarber to keep and I'd lean strongly toward Schwarber at this point. By the end of this coming season if Jiminez plays well he might be a top 5 prospect given people graduating as mlb.com has him a 13 and has 10 of the 12 players in front of him with a 2017 ETA. That's going to hold a lot more value in a trade than Happ will.

 

[beckdawg]

So i know the natural thought is regression for Hendricks but in 5 IP thus far he's given up 2 hits 0 walks and has 5 k's to go with 0 ER. Apparently he's good at the baseball. Him and Rollins have been killin it.

Also Almora is hitting .310/.333/.586 this spring...

 

[CSF77]

Happ has gone beast mode

 

[TC in Mississippi]

So i know the natural thought is regression for Hendricks but in 5 IP thus far he's given up 2 hits 0 walks and has 5 k's to go with 0 ER. Apparently he's good at the baseball. Him and Rollins have been killin it.

Also Almora is hitting .310/.333/.586 this spring...

Even without the stats Hendricks just looks good. I haven't seen all his work but his command is at mid summer form. I think it's time I stop underestimating him.

 

[brett05]

Cubs aren't trading Jimenez unless it's for a young bonafide TOR starter that under control for years and I doubt many teams if any are giving them up.
Plus
If a team willing to move a young TOR SP they most certainly will be looking for multiple high ranked Specs in return in which I believe Theo will not unload his system for 1 SP no matter how good he can be..


Cubs will probably be looking to trade their other top prospect hitters for teams top prospect pitching..

Having an under 30 SP like Sales become available via trade is far and few and only really happens if a team dumping , so the chances of that happening this off season is slim unless someone knows of a team with a Sales like SP that going to unload after this season...






Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

The issue you have is that a team that develops those TOR pitchers do not trade them away for great hitting specs. It just doesn't happen. Which means either the Cubs overpay for older pitchers or they develop them in the limited cheap window that they have.

 

[Hammer]

Yeah, we have seen with Sox how that "just doesn't happen", so Cubs need to find some team crazy like that (possibly Tampa, or Cleveland if they crash and burn in 2017, who knows, maybe even Atlanta).

 

[brett05]

Yeah, we have seen with Sox how that "just doesn't happen", so Cubs need to find some team crazy like that (possibly Tampa, or Cleveland if they crash and burn in 2017, who knows, maybe even Atlanta).

What top pitching spec did the team slip for hitting? Who am I missing?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Yeah, we have seen with Sox how that "just doesn't happen", so Cubs need to find some team crazy like that (possibly Tampa, or Cleveland if they crash and burn in 2017, who knows, maybe even Atlanta).

I have no idea what to expect out of the Rays. That pitching could carry them into competition and then they aren't trading their guys. Cleveland is the one team in MLB that might be as good as the Cubs and Atlanta isn't trading Teheran which is the only MLB pitcher of theirs anyone would want. Now one guy to take a look at in ATL is Sean Newcomb who the BRaves have soured on due to lack of consistent command. The issue is that the Cubs need a TOR not a guy who might be that in 2-4 years. Still I like Newcomb. He looks like Jon Lester with more velocity and a killer curve. He's a guy you could get for prospects but which ones is anyone's guess.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The issue you have is that a team that develops those TOR pitchers do not trade them away for great hitting specs. It just doesn't happen. Which means either the Cubs overpay for older pitchers or they develop them in the limited cheap window that they have.

Your team might trade Quintana for hitting prospects, or at least they should. They have a couple of really nice pieces in Moncada and Anderson but they need young OF help and a couple of catching prospects wouldn't hurt. As good as their offseason has been if they don't get at least one premium bat in a Quintana deal I think they'll be going in the wrong direction.

 

[DanTown]

The issue you have is that a team that develops those TOR pitchers do not trade them away for great hitting specs. It just doesn't happen. Which means either the Cubs overpay for older pitchers or they develop them in the limited cheap window that they have.

You don't develop pitching because it's too unpredictable between actual stuff, injury, and stamina to be a starter. Pitchers come from everywhere, if you look at the pitchers who are top 10 in WAR over the past three years, they were drafted

1-9 (Kerhsaw)
4-10 (Kluber)*
1-11 (Scherzer)
1-13 (Sale)
5-5 (Arrieta)*
2-16 (Lester)
IFA (Quintana)
IFA (Cueto)
1-10 (Bumgarner)

Now hitters

1-24 Trout
1s - 18 Donaldson *
IFA Beltre
5-18 Goldschmidt
6 - 20 Rizzo *
IFA Altuve
1-3 Machado
17 - 9 Kinsler
1-5 Posey
1-2 Bryant

* = Traded before achieved success

The Cubs built a team around defense and out creation that allows them to scout and find a pitcher who fits their needs (pitches low in the zone, generates both swing and miss as well as weak contact/ground balls) which means they can scout and sign guys that don't have electric TOR stuff but produce TOR results. Sure they paid top dollar for Lester but that's a luxury they could afford with all their young hitters being pre-arb guys. As Lester ages and the hitters get more expensive, you'll see a more balanced approach to the draft (first four years was almost exclusively hitters at the top/early, switched to pitching the past few drafts). The other parts of their rotation (Arrieta, Hendricks, Anderson, Montgomery) were low cost signings or cast-offs from other teams.

Look at the Mets, they thought they had a rotation full of TOR guys yet Harvey has been hurt multiple times, Matz can't stay healthy consistently, and de Grom has thrown less than 500 MLB innings and he's already turning 29 in June. I wish the Sox luck because they've gone that route but that's a very dangerous road to go down, especially with very little top flight hitting talent to off-set the need for pitching to be dominant in the future.

 

[DanTown]

I have no idea what to expect out of the Rays. That pitching could carry them into competition and then they aren't trading their guys. Cleveland is the one team in MLB that might be as good as the Cubs and Atlanta isn't trading Teheran which is the only MLB pitcher of theirs anyone would want. Now one guy to take a look at in ATL is Sean Newcomb who the BRaves have soured on due to lack of consistent command. The issue is that the Cubs need a TOR not a guy who might be that in 2-4 years. Still I like Newcomb. He looks like Jon Lester with more velocity and a killer curve. He's a guy you could get for prospects but which ones is anyone's guess.

The Cubs need a #3 next year if they let Jake walk and Lackey likely retires but that also frees 30 million in salaries. Considering Montero is coming off and Davis is potentially replaced by Edwards, there is a ton of potential to have money to spend and sign a legit SP behind those guys.

Or they might wait and sign a guy in 2019 when everyone is a FA that summer. Either way, you have pretty down on Lester or Hendricks to say that TOR is a "need".

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The Cubs need a #3 next year if they let Jake walk and Lackey likely retires but that also frees 30 million in salaries. Considering Montero is coming off and Davis is potentially replaced by Edwards, there is a ton of potential to have money to spend and sign a legit SP behind those guys.

Or they might wait and sign a guy in 2019 when everyone is a FA that summer. Either way, you have pretty down on Lester or Hendricks to say that TOR is a "need".

You really need two guys capable of being a #1 to be a legit WS contender. Right now that's Lester and Arrieta but the latter will be gone and I just don't know for how many years Lester will be a #1, certainly not more than 2 more. Hendricks is an amazing overachiever and it's incredible to me that he's a solid 2/3 guy, and should be for some time, but he's never going to be a #1. Both Yu Darvish and Johnny Cueto (if he opts out) are likely to cost less than Arrieta this offseason so those are options but do the Cubs want to lock up a pitcher for that kind of money as the bills on young hitters will start to come due? My one worry on this team, and it's a big one, is pitching. If Lester or Hendricks go down to injury or Arrieta is bad again this isn't a World Series team without an August trade.

 

[chibears55]

The issue you have is that a team that develops those TOR pitchers do not trade them away for great hitting specs. It just doesn't happen. Which means either the Cubs overpay for older pitchers or they develop them in the limited cheap window that they have.

Pretty much right...

One would think if a team going to trade away an under 30 established TOR their most likely going to want top pitching prospects in return...
I'm sure a such teams would take Jiminez but they'd probably want some top pitching prospects in return which the Cubs don't really have..

I just don't think Epstein going to unload all or most of his top hitting prospects on 1 pitcher.

Also

My other thinking on Jimenez, he just 19/20 this season..

I just think the Cubs would be foolish to give him up ..
Kid a monster now and looks like he only going get better as he gets more experience and matures more in a couple years ...

Also someone mentioned he a LFer, he has been playing some RF in ST and last year in A ball..
So, it looks like their giving him that experience to play RF if that where they need him down the road.


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[DanTown]

You really need two guys capable of being a #1 to be a legit WS contender. Right now that's Lester and Arrieta but the latter will be gone and I just don't know for how many years Lester will be a #1, certainly not more than 2 more. Hendricks is an amazing overachiever and it's incredible to me that he's a solid 2/3 guy, and should be for some time, but he's never going to be a #1. Both Yu Darvish and Johnny Cueto (if he opts out) are likely to cost less than Arrieta this offseason so those are options but do the Cubs want to lock up a pitcher for that kind of money as the bills on young hitters will start to come due? My one worry on this team, and it's a big one, is pitching. If Lester or Hendricks go down to injury or Arrieta is bad again this isn't a World Series team without an August trade.

The Royals and Indians played in the last three WS and did so with an elite bullpen and lack of starting pitching. You need to 27 outs; it's sometimes easier to do that with starters but by no means is it required you find a starter better than Hendricks. You mention Darvish (a guy who can't stay healthy) and Cueto (a guy with over 1800 innings) as cheaper guys but are they better? Maybe they're more likely to go 7-8 innings but if you build/have a very good bullpen then you're looking at 6 innings anyway.

And the other thing is that trading for a starter to go in the playoffs is such a low probability payoff for future value that I can't see the value. A reliever, who can pitch in ten high leverage playoff games, is one thing. Going from a 3 to a 4 (out of 5) on the SP scale for a playoff series is less valuable.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Pretty much right...

One would think if a team going to trade away an under 30 established TOR their most likely going to want top pitching prospects in return...
I'm sure a such teams would take Jiminez but they'd probably want some top pitching prospects in return which the Cubs don't really have..

I just don't think Epstein going to unload all or most of his top hitting prospects on 1 pitcher.

Also

My other thinking on Jimenez, he just 19/20 this season..

I just think the Cubs would be foolish to give him up ..
Kid a monster now and looks like he only going get better as he gets more experience and matures more in a couple years ...

Also someone mentioned he a LFer, he has been playing some RF in ST and last year in A ball..
So, it looks like their giving him that experience to play RF if that where they need him down the road.


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Scouting on Jimenez basically says he doesn't have the arm for RF but the Cubs want to find out. Only makes sense.

 

[fatbeard]

You really need two guys capable of being a #1 to be a legit WS contender. Right now that's Lester and Arrieta but the latter will be gone and I just don't know for how many years Lester will be a #1, certainly not more than 2 more. Hendricks is an amazing overachiever and it's incredible to me that he's a solid 2/3 guy, and should be for some time, but he's never going to be a #1. Both Yu Darvish and Johnny Cueto (if he opts out) are likely to cost less than Arrieta this offseason so those are options but do the Cubs want to lock up a pitcher for that kind of money as the bills on young hitters will start to come due? My one worry on this team, and it's a big one, is pitching. If Lester or Hendricks go down to injury or Arrieta is bad again this isn't a World Series team without an August trade.

The good news is that Lester's pitch repertoire is less dependent on velocity and so he's likely to remain effective through his mid-30's. As long as he's able to locate his cutter and drop enough curves to keep people honest he'll be fine. He may need to mix back in the changeup that he rarely throws as his FB declines, but the overall point is that guys with good cutters tend to pitch well for a long time. Lester strikes me as one of those guys whose desire to keep playing will fizzle long before his body truly gives out on him.