Cubs Spring training thread

[TC in Mississippi]

Isn't that what the Cubs have been doing for years? And quite well actually.

Honestly the White Sox should get a Chris Sale package for Q.

Yes, and I'm not taking credit away. Sale is a top 5 pitcher in the league, personally I think he's number 2 behind Kershaw, and Quintana is probably top 15, maybe top 10, but he isn't the all around ace that Sale is. If he's traded in season that might elevate the package to the Sale package level, but if next offseason with one less year of control I wouldn't expect that.

 

[beckdawg]

Butler is having a pretty good spring. 10 IP, 4 hits, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K's

 

[SilenceS]

Butler is having a pretty good spring. 10 IP, 4 hits, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K's

He is the Chris Bosio special. Bosio has had an incredible ability with his coaches to see the flaws and correct them. I am not saying Butler is the next Arrieta, but Bosio has done wonders with guys like him.

 

[beckdawg]

He is the Chris Bosio special. Bosio has had an incredible ability with his coaches to see the flaws and correct them. I am not saying Butler is the next Arrieta, but Bosio has done wonders with guys like him.

I'm more curious if he is in play for the #5 starter. My guess is probably back to AAA but it's not like Anderson/Montgomery are killing it this spring.

 

[chibears55]

I'm more curious if he is in play for the #5 starter. My guess is probably back to AAA but it's not like Anderson/Montgomery are killing it this spring.

Being that he just 26, I'd be happy if he able to take over Lackey 4th spot in 2018 ...

All they would need to look for this off season is a replacement for Arrieta if he doesn't resign...

The 5 hole can go to a rookie like Dylan Cease or another...

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[DanTown]

Not saying Butler is going to be good or bad but that low a K/9 ratio is super extreme for a pitcher that even with a defense like the Cubs, it's hard to get by. Have to see the stuff more to know how real it is.

 

[DanTown]

1) It's a massive misnomer that closers pitch more than one inning.
2) They still make the playoffs as the NL Central Champs. I think they very well could have won, but it matters not.
3) The starter is way more valuable than the reliever because of the shortage you previously stated.

If you use a closer like a traditional "only in the ninth, only for three outs" then MAYBE a starter matters but again, he only pitches in two of the seven games (if he pitches three, he's simply too tired to be effective in the third game ala Kluber no matter how good he is) so again, if I have to win four, how does he help me in the other games? He doesn't, he's reliant on the other 24 guys winning the other games. Think of the Cubs/Giants series

Game 1 - 0-0 in the eighth
Game 2 - 5-2 in the ninth
Game 3 - 3-2 in the eighth
Game 4 - 6-5 in the ninth

 

[beckdawg]

Not saying Butler is going to be good or bad but that low a K/9 ratio is super extreme for a pitcher that even with a defense like the Cubs, it's hard to get by. Have to see the stuff more to know how real it is.

It's not *that* low. League average is around 20% k rate and he was at 16% last year. He also was at 24.8% in 2013 back when his prospect status was still in tact. And he clearly has the stuff. A better guess is his command hasn't put him in position to take advantage of his weapons. His slider has a 25.8% k rate which isn't amazing but it's not bad either and it was 27.3% last year. If you look at his splits, his k rate on 0-2 is 39.0%. On 1-2 it's 31.9% and on 2-2 it's 29.9%. On 3-2 it drops to 17.2%.

To give some context, using Arrieta as an example on 0-2 he's 48.4%, 1-2 he's 47.3%, and 36.3% on 2-2 vs 21.4% at 3-2. Obviously Arrieta has an advantage based on these numbers from last year. When he was struggling a bit more in 2012 they were 44.8%, 44.4%, 42.3% and 23.5% respectively. So, at the top in on 0-2 he's not that far off one of the better k pitchers in the league but he's no where near as effective as Arrieta on 1-2 and 2-2. I'm not a pitching coach but one of the suggestions I've read is he struggled with establishing a 3rd pitch after AA. Supposedly his change up was nasty doing this but they altered his mechanics some what to help improve his slider which worked but the change in mechanics really hurt that change up which hasn't been as effective since.

Long story short, I don't think it's really an issue that he doesn't strike guys out so much as it's an issue that he hasn't yet developed command and a feel for all his pitches. He might never develop them but his slider and sinker are pretty good pitches right now. If he gets that change up back he's pretty interesting.

 

[DanTown]

It's not *that* low. League average is around 20% k rate and he was at 16% last year. He also was at 24.8% in 2013 back when his prospect status was still in tact. And he clearly has the stuff. A better guess is his command hasn't put him in position to take advantage of his weapons. His slider has a 25.8% k rate which isn't amazing but it's not bad either and it was 27.3% last year. If you look at his splits, his k rate on 0-2 is 39.0%. On 1-2 it's 31.9% and on 2-2 it's 29.9%. On 3-2 it drops to 17.2%.

To give some context, using Arrieta as an example on 0-2 he's 48.4%, 1-2 he's 47.3%, and 36.3% on 2-2 vs 21.4% at 3-2. Obviously Arrieta has an advantage based on these numbers from last year. When he was struggling a bit more in 2012 they were 44.8%, 44.4%, 42.3% and 23.5% respectively. So, at the top in on 0-2 he's not that far off one of the better k pitchers in the league but he's no where near as effective as Arrieta on 1-2 and 2-2. I'm not a pitching coach but one of the suggestions I've read is he struggled with establishing a 3rd pitch after AA. Supposedly his change up was nasty doing this but they altered his mechanics some what to help improve his slider which worked but the change in mechanics really hurt that change up which hasn't been as effective since.

Long story short, I don't think it's really an issue that he doesn't strike guys out so much as it's an issue that he hasn't yet developed command and a feel for all his pitches. He might never develop them but his slider and sinker are pretty good pitches right now. If he gets that change up back he's pretty interesting.

41 pitchers who threw at least 80 innings last year had a K/9 sub 7.

5.4 would have been seventh LOWEST on that list (165 guys) so were talking like 5th percentile here for K rate.

4 had a FIP below 4.00
3.71 - Miguel Gonzalez
3.83 - Mike Leake
3.90 - Ross Stripling
3.99 - Bartolo Colon

12 had a FIP 5.00+

Median of the group was in the high 4s (4.6-4.7)

I don't know what to tell you, it's very unlikely you succeed as a MLB without striking guys out. CAN it be done? Sure, it's just super unlikely and not something I'd ever go after trying to capture.

 

[beckdawg]

41 pitchers who threw at least 80 innings last year had a K/9 sub 7.

5.4 would have been seventh LOWEST on that list (165 guys) so were talking like 5th percentile here for K rate.

4 had a FIP below 4.00
3.71 - Miguel Gonzalez
3.83 - Mike Leake
3.90 - Ross Stripling
3.99 - Bartolo Colon

12 had a FIP 5.00+

Median of the group was in the high 4s (4.6-4.7)

I don't know what to tell you, it's very unlikely you succeed as a MLB without striking guys out. CAN it be done? Sure, it's just super unlikely and not something I'd ever go after trying to capture.

I think you're missing the point. I understand the argument that low K rate is a big deal. My point was there's a ton of reason to believe that isn't what he is and that the issue is fixable because he's been much higher than that in the minors and that typically is indicative.

 

[brett05]

Yes, and I'm not taking credit away. Sale is a top 5 pitcher in the league, personally I think he's number 2 behind Kershaw, and Quintana is probably top 15, maybe top 10, but he isn't the all around ace that Sale is. If he's traded in season that might elevate the package to the Sale package level, but if next offseason with one less year of control I wouldn't expect that.

The thing you get with Q is a more controlled delivery that has made him super healthy and a very low risk for injury. You also get an even better contract than Sale which is hard to believe. That and his top 15 status should net you a Sale deal. That's the talk anyway. Eh, Sorry, I feel like I hijacked this thread to talk White Sox baseball. Sorry for the tangent.

 

[brett05]

If you use a closer like a traditional "only in the ninth, only for three outs" then MAYBE a starter matters but again, he only pitches in two of the seven games (if he pitches three, he's simply too tired to be effective in the third game ala Kluber no matter how good he is) so again, if I have to win four, how does he help me in the other games? He doesn't, he's reliant on the other 24 guys winning the other games. Think of the Cubs/Giants series

Game 1 - 0-0 in the eighth
Game 2 - 5-2 in the ninth
Game 3 - 3-2 in the eighth
Game 4 - 6-5 in the ninth

I get it, most of today's managers have decided to play it safe. They have their studs only pitch two games instead of three. Kluber was tired but that's because the team was decimated and he pitched more than he should have as they had no one outside of Miller to go to anywhere on the staff. That was one beat up team in Cleveland. Give me a Kershaw for games 1, 4, 7 Same with a Chris Sale or a Jon Lester. Mad Bum too.

 

[DanTown]

I think you're missing the point. I understand the argument that low K rate is a big deal. My point was there's a ton of reason to believe that isn't what he is and that the issue is fixable because he's been much higher than that in the minors and that typically is indicative.

Yeah be he got hurt in that time, lost velocity, and hasn't had that success in three+ years.

Look, I get it, he may pan out, he may not. My assumption with everything I've read on him is he can't consistently locate the third pitch and to me, might have play as a reliever if he can be a two pitch guy with 96-97 again that could come back if he wasn't asked to start.

 

[DanTown]

I get it, most of today's managers have decided to play it safe. They have their studs only pitch two games instead of three. Kluber was tired but that's because the team was decimated and he pitched more than he should have as they had no one outside of Miller to go to anywhere on the staff. That was one beat up team in Cleveland. Give me a Kershaw for games 1, 4, 7 Same with a Chris Sale or a Jon Lester. Mad Bum too.

There's no guarantee you are pitching a starter in a high leverage game. Sometimes you need him to give up zero runs to win, sometimes it's just give up 4 over 7. A reliever, especially if I am non-traditional with his usage, I can use him in the highest leverage positions and I can do it in multiple games.

Kershwaw, if you get one of the greatest short series performances of all-time, maybe gives you four innings in the seventh inning or later in a seven game series. Chapman pitched 7 and 2/3 innings in the World Series.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Yeah be he got hurt in that time, lost velocity, and hasn't had that success in three+ years.

Look, I get it, he may pan out, he may not. My assumption with everything I've read on him is he can't consistently locate the third pitch and to me, might have play as a reliever if he can be a two pitch guy with 96-97 again that could come back if he wasn't asked to start.

When he was considered a top prospect he had a wicked changeup that he stopped throwing as much after 2013 and then almost not at all last year. In it's place he developed a nice curve and worked a slider that has just never had enough movement and often caused him to get lit up especially in Colorado. The key to his success is bringing back that change, continuing to work on the curveball and ditch the slider. I don't know what he's working on in ST but I'd assume the changeup is a big part of it. He certainly is worth a look and the K rate was solid through 2013 in AA.

 

[brett05]

There's no guarantee you are pitching a starter in a high leverage game. Sometimes you need him to give up zero runs to win, sometimes it's just give up 4 over 7. A reliever, especially if I am non-traditional with his usage, I can use him in the highest leverage positions and I can do it in multiple games.

Kershwaw, if you get one of the greatest short series performances of all-time, maybe gives you four innings in the seventh inning or later in a seven game series. Chapman pitched 7 and 2/3 innings in the World Series.

And I say you still get more out of your ace. He pitches three games. Has greater control and affect on the outcome than any relief pitcher. Even if you use your closer in a non-traditional manner, the starter has higher pressure. I know they have the new pressure situational ways to determine things. For me, they are extremely flawed. The new system proposes that basically anyone can close out a game. I believe that has been shown to be incorrect. There can be an exception here and there, but the rule is pretty clear for me. Without a dominant starter your relief pitcher might be on the same par as the bench bolt holding the top to the leg.

 

[chibears55]

Without saying it Maddon indicated a Szczur/La Stella battle for last spot. Not sure how numbers work in Szczur's favor there.




A little surprising considering Szczur was their best PH last year..
Thought Szczur was a sure thing to make team.

Guess with Jay and Almora covering CF, they can go with Zobrist to cover the corners with Bryant if needed.

So, guess it comes down to if Masson prefers an extra RH in Szczur or LH in LaStella on bench.

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[TC in Mississippi]

Without saying it Maddon indicated a Szczur/La Stella battle for last spot. Not sure how numbers work in Szczur's favor there.




A little surprising considering Szczur was their best PH last year..
Thought Szczur was a sure thing to make team.

Guess with Jay and Almora covering CF, they can go with Zobrist to cover the corners with Bryant if needed.

So, guess it comes down to if Masson prefers an extra RH in Szczur or LH in LaStella on bench.

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To me it comes down to contact and OBP and La Stella wins on both scores with lifetime .336 OBP vs Szczur's .297. Similarly Szczur's BB% lifetime is 6.6 vs La Stella's 9.8%. There are certainly some teams out there whose makeup would favor Szczur particularly for his SLG potential but with the powerful Cubs lineup you're not looking for power off the bench. To me it's always been a pretty easy choice provided La Stella is committed and playing well.

 

[chibears55]

To me it comes down to contact and OBP and La Stella wins on both scores with lifetime .336 OBP vs Szczur's .297. Similarly Szczur's BB% lifetime is 6.6 vs La Stella's 9.8%. There are certainly some teams out there whose makeup would favor Szczur particularly for his SLG potential but with the powerful Cubs lineup you're not looking for power off the bench. To me it's always been a pretty easy choice provided La Stella is committed and playing well.

I wanna see if LaStella cries abd goes home again if he cut to minors...

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[Omeletpants]

I wanna see if LaStella cries abd goes home again if he cut to minors...

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let it go