Cubs Spring training thread

[TC in Mississippi]

Better chance that the sun doesn't come up tomorrow. No way he opts out and unless the Cubs want to eat tens of millions no chance he is traded either. Best hope is he gets his bat back.

Actually if his numbers come back this year I think he could opt out next year. At that point he'll have 5/$106 mil left on the deal. If he's back to being the 5 fWAR player he had been for the previous 5 years to 2016 he'd easily be able to exceed that on the open market. Personally if he does come back this year, and I believe strongly he will, I hope he's here for a long time.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The best players, the very best players can move through the system quickly and skip past AAA. Believe me.

It really is different with different teams. The Cubs are a team that usually sends its top prospects to AAA at least for a while, other teams like the Yankees and others primarily call their players up from AA and use AAA for both depth and for players might need to go back down for some more work. Interestingly enough I was reminded today that Albert Pujols basically only played A ball with 3 games in AAA. In those days the Cardinals almost always called guys up from AA or, in that case, below that.

 

[beckdawg]

Actually if his numbers come back this year I think he could opt out next year. At that point he'll have 5/$106 mil left on the deal. If he's back to being the 5 fWAR player he had been for the previous 5 years to 2016 he'd easily be able to exceed that on the open market. Personally if he does come back this year, and I believe strongly he will, I hope he's here for a long time.

While I do agree with the sentiment he very likely could rebound, I guess my though process is what does opting out really get him? He'll be 28/29 which is still a good age range but unless he shows more power is anyone seriously going to pay him more than the ~$21 mil he'd have left AAV? There's only like 28 people in the majors right now making $21 mil or more. Of those that are OF you're talking about Ellsbury, Kemp, Werth, Justin Upton and Cespedes. Trout will quickly be there as well but most of those deals haven't really played out like you'd want. Supposedly he took less money to come to the cubs but I'm not entirely sure how much less that truly is. And obviously there's the quality of life stuff. Players(outside of Montero and apparently Hammel) seem to love playing for Maddon. Heyward is a big character guy on a team build upon high character players and a team that should be competitive. If you're someone who works as hard as he does you're going to want to win. So while you might be able to get more out of a fringe contender who needs you more, I think you'd prefer to be on a winner.

In Heyward's case, I think the opt outs are more of a poison pill which is to say I think they are there to give you a reason to renegotiate. Assuming he's happy and assuming the cubs are happy with him, he can basically sit down and say he will give up the opt outs if they tack on say an additional 3 or 4 years putting him in the 36-37 year age range at the end of the deal. And in the end it's sort of win win for both sides. Heyward gets some control in case things didn't work out with the cubs. The cubs didn't have to commit beyond his 33 year old season initially and it also bought them time pre-renegotiation of their TV deal.

 

[CSF77]

The best players, the very best players can move through the system quickly and skip past AAA. Believe me.

They didn't do that with any of their core. You really can't go by what happens on other teams. You have to go with the track record of Theo and Jed. They make the players get their AB's in at a level. If they are crushing the pitching they get a boost. Kyle and Kris are most likely as fast as it gets due to them being that advanced with a college history leading into the draft. The worst would be Almora who did a full year at each stop due to his injuries/age/slower adjustments.

He should end up somewhere in between.

 

[beckdawg]

It really is different with different teams. The Cubs are a team that usually sends its top prospects to AAA at least for a while, other teams like the Yankees and others primarily call their players up from AA and use AAA for both depth and for players might need to go back down for some more work. Interestingly enough I was reminded today that Albert Pujols basically only played A ball with 3 games in AAA. In those days the Cardinals almost always called guys up from AA or, in that case, below that.

If I remember right he more or less force the cards hand by killing it in spring training. He hit .329/.403/.610 as a 21 year old that year after being a 13th round pick a year and a half prior.

 

[CSF77]

While I do agree with the sentiment he very likely could rebound, I guess my though process is what does opting out really get him? He'll be 28/29 which is still a good age range but unless he shows more power is anyone seriously going to pay him more than the ~$21 mil he'd have left AAV? There's only like 28 people in the majors right now making $21 mil or more. Of those that are OF you're talking about Ellsbury, Kemp, Werth, Justin Upton and Cespedes. Trout will quickly be there as well but most of those deals haven't really played out like you'd want. Supposedly he took less money to come to the cubs but I'm not entirely sure how much less that truly is. And obviously there's the quality of life stuff. Players(outside of Montero and apparently Hammel) seem to love playing for Maddon. Heyward is a big character guy on a team build upon high character players and a team that should be competitive. If you're someone who works as hard as he does you're going to want to win. So while you might be able to get more out of a fringe contender who needs you more, I think you'd prefer to be on a winner.

In Heyward's case, I think the opt outs are more of a poison pill which is to say I think they are there to give you a reason to renegotiate. Assuming he's happy and assuming the cubs are happy with him, he can basically sit down and say he will give up the opt outs if they tack on say an additional 3 or 4 years putting him in the 36-37 year age range at the end of the deal. And in the end it's sort of win win for both sides. Heyward gets some control in case things didn't work out with the cubs. The cubs didn't have to commit beyond his 33 year old season initially and it also bought them time pre-renegotiation of their TV deal.

That decision is on Jason. If he opts out it opens up RF. They will not rush Eloy just to fill that need. If he is ready then I can see it.

Heyward may opt out of contract after 2018 season or after 2019 season with 550 plate appearances in 2019
full no-trade protection for 2016-18, may block deals to 12 clubs in 2019-20, may block all deals after 2020 season as 10-and-5 player

So he is going nowhere until 2019. At that point Eloy should be ready. Say this year he splits MB and Tenn. Next year he splits Tenn and Iowa. Leading up to that time you have Happ and Mark Zagunis gaining MLB AB's and can add depth to the corners.

At that point Jason could bail or the Cubs could trade to any club not blocked if they need to clear payroll.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If I remember right he more or less force the cards hand by killing it in spring training. He hit .329/.403/.610 as a 21 year old that year after being a 13th round pick a year and a half prior.

He first came up to play 3B replacing an injured Bobby Bonilla who I didn't even remember playing for the Cards. That's a trivia question for you.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

While I do agree with the sentiment he very likely could rebound, I guess my though process is what does opting out really get him? He'll be 28/29 which is still a good age range but unless he shows more power is anyone seriously going to pay him more than the ~$21 mil he'd have left AAV? There's only like 28 people in the majors right now making $21 mil or more. Of those that are OF you're talking about Ellsbury, Kemp, Werth, Justin Upton and Cespedes. Trout will quickly be there as well but most of those deals haven't really played out like you'd want. Supposedly he took less money to come to the cubs but I'm not entirely sure how much less that truly is. And obviously there's the quality of life stuff. Players(outside of Montero and apparently Hammel) seem to love playing for Maddon. Heyward is a big character guy on a team build upon high character players and a team that should be competitive. If you're someone who works as hard as he does you're going to want to win. So while you might be able to get more out of a fringe contender who needs you more, I think you'd prefer to be on a winner.

In Heyward's case, I think the opt outs are more of a poison pill which is to say I think they are there to give you a reason to renegotiate. Assuming he's happy and assuming the cubs are happy with him, he can basically sit down and say he will give up the opt outs if they tack on say an additional 3 or 4 years putting him in the 36-37 year age range at the end of the deal. And in the end it's sort of win win for both sides. Heyward gets some control in case things didn't work out with the cubs. The cubs didn't have to commit beyond his 33 year old season initially and it also bought them time pre-renegotiation of their TV deal.

You make some good points, particularly in the area of team fit and the fact that salaries are not escalating as fast as many thought they would. Listen if this guy plays like he can I have no desire for him to go.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Not entirely accurate. Bryant took 330 PAs in AAA. Obviously he probably didn't really *need* those but the point is more that it's more a case by case thing. If we're talking Eloy there's a number of factors here. First of all he literally just turned 20. If he were to play in the majors this year that would be INCREDIBLY young. Russell for example was a real shock to get promoted at the time and he was still 21. And obviously the second thing is where do you even play him?

None of that is to say Eloy isn't talented but people far too often just assume talented prospects will breeze through levels of competition. The average age of A+ last year was 22.5. So he's on average going to be playing against players 3 years older than him. The average age at AA is 24.0. At AAA you're talking 26.4. It's entirely plausible that those players who are more physically mature will be able to exploit him which would obviously slow down his development. This is why you typically see college bats who are the ones who move quickly through the minors rather than HS bats. Bryant debuted in the minors at 21 as did Schwarber. Even if you want to compare Eloy to Rizzo(drafted out of HS) as a hitter, Rizzo didn't debut until he was 21 and when he did he hit(.141/.281/.242).

Long story short, you have to a pretty special player to debut in the majors before age 21. And the thing is, there is relatively little downside to keeping him in the minors. It's one thing if he's posting .400+ OBP like Schwarber and Bryant did. Then I can see the argument of pushing him. But outside of that you're really not losing out by having him spend more time facing minors pitching.

It's actually accurate, very accurate. You blew right by the word "can". My post didn't pertain specifically to the Cubs either. Once a player has demonstrated success in AA, there is no reason to stick in the hitter-friendly PCL.

 

[Parade_Rain]

They didn't do that with any of their core. You really can't go by what happens on other teams. You have to go with the track record of Theo and Jed. They make the players get their AB's in at a level. If they are crushing the pitching they get a boost. Kyle and Kris are most likely as fast as it gets due to them being that advanced with a college history leading into the draft. The worst would be Almora who did a full year at each stop due to his injuries/age/slower adjustments.

He should end up somewhere in between.

1. My post wasn't expressly limited to the Cubs.
2. I'm disappointed big league that Beck, TC and you missed the brilliance of me stating a valid opinion while imitating the current POTUS.

 

[brett05]

Actually if his numbers come back this year I think he could opt out next year. At that point he'll have 5/$106 mil left on the deal. If he's back to being the 5 fWAR player he had been for the previous 5 years to 2016 he'd easily be able to exceed that on the open market. Personally if he does come back this year, and I believe strongly he will, I hope he's here for a long time.

I get it that war is worth about $8 million per. I don't think anyone is going to pay that for Heyward's glove which is what makes up a good chunk of his WAR year in and year out. Trust me, you have him. Short of turning into a superstar, you have him long term.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

What is the likelihood that before 2020 that the Cubs try to trade Heyward and eat a certain chunk of his salary? By then they should have an amazing tv deal and the ability to spend 250 million in yearly payroll.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

What is the likelihood that before 2020 that the Cubs try to trade Heyward and eat a certain chunk of his salary? By then they should have an amazing tv deal and the ability to spend 250 million in yearly payroll.

Too far in the future to know. Depends entirely on how good he is going forward. About that payroll though? I wouldn't hold your breath. they're not opposed to going over the luxury tax when needed but I don't think they'll ever do it just because they have the money. I wouldn't want them to either.

 

[anotheridiot]

Too far in the future to know. Depends entirely on how good he is going forward. About that payroll though? I wouldn't hold your breath. they're not opposed to going over the luxury tax when needed but I don't think they'll ever do it just because they have the money. I wouldn't want them to either.

Heywards deal is really one sides. He sucks again, he stays and gets paid. He turns it around, he opts out and gets paid more. I am pretty sure the majority of cub fans are hoping he turns it around so Eloy Jiminez gets right field.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Heyward's bat not producing more...if he isn't able to be traded, his numbers are OK in CF. Almora would be the one to go, IMHO, and space would be made for Jiminez in RF. Too far in the future to really be reading tea leaves already though.

 

[CSF77]

I get it that war is worth about $8 million per. I don't think anyone is going to pay that for Heyward's glove which is what makes up a good chunk of his WAR year in and year out. Trust me, you have him. Short of turning into a superstar, you have him long term.

I think we have to look at a 3 year story from 2016-2018 to debate his trade value when it applies vs 2016 alone.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't really see the point in talking about Heyward's trade value. One of two things is going to happen. Either he A) lives up to the contract in which case you don't want to trade him or B) he doesn't in which case why would anyone else want to be on the hook for him at 4-5 years? You'd literally have to eat most of the contract and aren't going to get much in return or you have to also take on a bad contract a la Kemp for Hector Olivera.

While Jiminez is a very interesting prospect, I'm personally more interested in what Jonathan Sierra does in 2017. Other than Eddy Martinez he was the most expensive player signed in the 2015 IFA period at $2.5 mil. He drew Darryl Strawberry comps prior to signing and he hit .264/.384/.341(124 wRC+) with 14.1%/18.3% bb/k rates in the DSL this past year. He also stole 12 bases in 17 tries over 263 PAs. The power obviously isn't there yet but you can definitely see why he has those comps as Strawberry routinely early in his career was a 30/20 guy who had 12.9%/21.4% bb/k rates and like Strawberry he's a decently big LH bat at he is listed 6-3/190. If his power comes along like they suspect it will he's a really intriguing player. You don't see many 20 SB guys with power anymore. Hell only 17 players stole 20 bases last year.

 

[SilenceS]

SS game today. MLB network says its playing the game at 3, but I think the game actually starts at 2. Maybe they are doing a delay.

The one being broadcasted has Montogmery on the hill against the A's.

The lineup:
Heyward
Bryant
Rizzo
Zobrist
Russell
Contreras
Jay
Szczur
Happ

The second game against San Fran has Rob Zastryzny on the mound

The lineup:
Schwarber
Baez
Candelario
Montero
Almora
Chris Dominguez
John Andreoli
Kawasaki
Mark Zagunis DH

 

[chibears55]

SS game today. MLB network says its playing the game at 3, but I think the game actually starts at 2. Maybe they are doing a delay.

The one being broadcasted has Montogmery on the hill against the A's.

The lineup:
Heyward
Bryant
Rizzo
Zobrist
Russell
Contreras
Jay
Szczur
Happ

The second game against San Fran has Rob Zastryzny on the mound

The lineup:
Schwarber
Baez
Candelario
Montero
Almora
Chris Dominguez
John Andreoli
Kawasaki
Mark Zagunis DH

Heyward wasted no time showing off his new swing...
Popup to CF
At least he got it pass the IF
Lol

Main things I'll be keeping an eye on this ST is Heyward ABs, Schwarber in OF, Almora ABs,
Brett Anderson, and the Bullpen guys.

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[brett05]

I think we have to look at a 3 year story from 2016-2018 to debate his trade value when it applies vs 2016 alone.

I don't feel his offense was off the charts when he did have the "swing."