Cubs trade for Dexter Fowler

[chibears55]

I think youll see Montero hit higher than 7th in the lineup

Montero should bat 8th but I could see Baez in the 8 hole to start season

Skipping ahead to Bryant arrival I see the everyday Lineup looking like this..

Fowler
Coghlan
Rizzo
Bryant
Soler
Castro
Montero
Baez

 

[beckdawg]

Montero should bat 8th but I could see Baez in the 8 hole to start season

Skipping ahead to Bryant arrival I see the everyday Lineup looking like this..

Fowler
Coghlan
Rizzo
Bryant
Soler
Castro
Montero
Baez

Think you guys are forgetting sometimes maddon is nuts. He very well could bat the pitcher 8th. You could conceivably do something like

Fowler
Castro
Rizzo
Soler
Baez
Montero
Olt
Pitcher
Coghlan

 

[Boobaby1]

Fowler also brings a little speed to the line-up besides his OBP. So if you factor in Fowler and LaStella, two guys that have good OBP and very respectable averages, versus what Baez and Alcantara brought to the table last year (albeit sample size), I think the Cubs have accomplished what they were looking for.

The idea was to get guys on in front of the big boys and increase the OBP, and now, Maddon has an opportunity to play some different hands if he chooses to.

BTW, the Cubs offense cost them FAR MORE games last year than the CF defense did. If Fowler can make the routine plays he is supposed to, I will gladly take it.

It was basically a swap for Valbuena to fill a void and it also freed up a roster spot. Good trade for the Cubs.

 

[CSF77]

Think you guys are forgetting sometimes maddon is nuts. He very well could bat the pitcher 8th. You could conceivably do something like

Fowler
Castro
Rizzo
Soler
Baez
Montero
Olt
Pitcher
Coghlan

If you are going down that road then Alcantara's speed plays more than Coghlan's OBA batting #9. They got Fowler for OBA. That means that they felt Alcantara was not going to be able to fill that role and they wanted a upgrade to Coghlan leading off.

That in view batting #9 means less AB's. So it lessens OBA value. We are talking about 50 70 AB's most likely over a season less dropping a 2 hitter to the 9 hole.
But adding speed to the #9 spot then OBA as a lead off and #2 hitter with a high BA it opens up RBI opertunites.

I would leave Alcantara in CF. He has proven to be a quality D player. Then move Fowler to LF thus lessening his impact on D. Scrap the LF platoon and make them bench depth/PH. Let Olt play 3B until they promote Bryant. Get some trade value built for later season.

That IMO makes sense.

Line up:
Fowler LF
Castro SS
Rizzo 1B
Bryant 3B
Soler RF
Montenero C
Baez 2B
Pitcher
Alcantara CF

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If you are going down that road then Alcantara's speed plays more than Coghlan's OBA batting #9. They got Fowler for OBA. That means that they felt Alcantara was not going to be able to fill that role and they wanted a upgrade to Coghlan leading off.

That in view batting #9 means less AB's. So it lessens OBA value. We are talking about 50 70 AB's most likely over a season less dropping a 2 hitter to the 9 hole.
But adding speed to the #9 spot then OBA as a lead off and #2 hitter with a high BA it opens up RBI opertunites.

I would leave Alcantara in CF. He has proven to be a quality D player. Then move Fowler to LF thus lessening his impact on D. Scrap the LF platoon and make them bench depth/PH. Let Olt play 3B until they promote Bryant. Get some trade value built for later season.

That IMO makes sense.

Line up:
Fowler LF
Castro SS
Rizzo 1B
Bryant 3B
Soler RF
Montenero C
Baez 2B
Pitcher
Alcantara CF

I don't think that's their thinking though. I think Maddon likes having a super sub type player and Alcantara is going to be that guy. I also think Fowler can improve defensively so a lot of people are just writing off that aspect of his game without thinking that's a possibility. In fact given some of his defensive shortcomings LF might be a worse place for him to play, at least at home, as the corners are notoriously difficult and Wrigley is one of the few parks where CF is the easiest of the three OF positions to play.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I don't think that's their thinking though. I think Maddon likes having a super sub type player and Alcantara is going to be that guy. I also think Fowler can improve defensively so a lot of people are just writing off that aspect of his game without thinking that's a possibility. In fact given some of his defensive shortcomings LF might be a worse place for him to play, at least at home, as the corners are notoriously difficult and Wrigley is one of the few parks where CF is the easiest of the three OF positions to play.

Agreed. Super Sub. Another thought is that Fowler is a rental while Alcantara figures his stuff out this year. I really like AA's combination of speed and pop in his bat.

 

[CSF77]

I don't think that's their thinking though. I think Maddon likes having a super sub type player and Alcantara is going to be that guy. I also think Fowler can improve defensively so a lot of people are just writing off that aspect of his game without thinking that's a possibility. In fact given some of his defensive shortcomings LF might be a worse place for him to play, at least at home, as the corners are notoriously difficult and Wrigley is one of the few parks where CF is the easiest of the three OF positions to play.

Kinda doubt that with Sori manning LF for years. He even admitted he was never taught how to play OF and got by on talent alone. That is why he improved so much after he was taught properly. Looking back: Sarge..ya.

RF is known to be bad for the winds and the well causes problems. That is one of the worst RF's in baseball. CF not so much. LF has been the spot to dump a bat first type.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Kinda doubt that with Sori manning LF for years. He even admitted he was never taught how to play OF and got by on talent alone. That is why he improved so much after he was taught properly. Looking back: Sarge..ya.

RF is known to be bad for the winds and the well causes problems. That is one of the worst RF's in baseball. CF not so much. LF has been the spot to dump a bat first type.

Yeah, but I can't think of too many guys who played LF for the Cubs that had CF skills either. Fowler has them but has played in two notoriously difficult CF parks in Colorado and Houston. I'd be shocked if he wasn't better at Wrigley.

 

[CSF77]

Yeah, but I can't think of too many guys who played LF for the Cubs that had CF skills either. Fowler has them but has played in two notoriously difficult CF parks in Colorado and Houston. I'd be shocked if he wasn't better at Wrigley.

I wasn't too concerned at D. I'm more concerned at run generation. Alcantara hitting #9 his OBA lacking is lessened. He would most likely see 150 games in CF. So 600 PA's. You figure 5% BB: 30. So that is what I would expect out of him hitting #9. Most likely a .260 BA. Close to 150 hits. .316 OBA sounds about right. So he would get on base about 180 times compiled. So 20 SB's would be well in reach.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I wasn't too concerned at D. I'm more concerned at run generation. Alcantara hitting #9 his OBA lacking is lessened. He would most likely see 150 games in CF. So 600 PA's. You figure 5% BB: 30. So that is what I would expect out of him hitting #9. Most likely a .260 BA. Close to 150 hits. .316 OBA sounds about right. So he would get on base about 180 times compiled. So 20 SB's would be well in reach.

I'd be concerned at what you're losing in OBP. If the gist is you'd be starting Alcantara ahead of Coghlan you're talking about subbing a .254 OBP player for a .340 lifetime OBP player. That's not quite fair with the small sample size from Alcantara but even if he raises that to .305 in 2015 or so that's a huge difference. Those two getting on base ahead of Rizzo, Bryant, Castro is going to allow for a lot of runs to be scored.

 

[TL1961]

I don't think that's their thinking though. I think Maddon likes having a super sub type player and Alcantara is going to be that guy. I also think Fowler can improve defensively so a lot of people are just writing off that aspect of his game without thinking that's a possibility. In fact given some of his defensive shortcomings LF might be a worse place for him to play, at least at home, as the corners are notoriously difficult and Wrigley is one of the few parks where CF is the easiest of the three OF positions to play.

Why do you think this?

You mean you hope this, right? or wish this?

What reason do I have to think a guy with poor D will improve simply because he came to my team? I don't buy it, and don't expect it.

I like that they got a guy with higher OBP. I think this move will help. But let's remain objective, and not just throw out his poor D. It is real, and it matters at least to a degree.

 

[SilenceS]

I think Fowler shortcomings is he has maybe a tick above average speed and when you dont have the speed. You have to take the perfect jumps and angles. He doesnt do that either.

 

[TL1961]

I'd be concerned at what you're losing in OBP. If the gist is you'd be starting Alcantara ahead of Coghlan you're talking about subbing a .254 OBP player for a .340 lifetime OBP player. That's not quite fair with the small sample size from Alcantara but even if he raises that to .305 in 2015 or so that's a huge difference. Those two getting on base ahead of Rizzo, Bryant, Castro is going to allow for a lot of runs to be scored.

Alcantara's OBP in his first stint in the bigs should not be hung on him like it's a lifetime number.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Alcantara's OBP in his first stint in the bigs should not be hung on him like it's a lifetime number.

Agreed but it isn't going to jump to .340 in one year either.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Why do you think this?

You mean you hope this, right? or wish this?

What reason do I have to think a guy with poor D will improve simply because he came to my team? I don't buy it, and don't expect it.

I like that they got a guy with higher OBP. I think this move will help. But let's remain objective, and not just throw out his poor D. It is real, and it matters at least to a degree.

Of course it's hope. There a piece on just that over on Cubs Den. the premise being that Wrigley is an easier CF to work in and that Fowler does the have the raw skills. Look folks this is a one year pick up and that OBP really should help at 1,2 to get the meat of the order and provide a stop gap to Almora or to another permanent solution.

 

[TL1961]

I'm happy with the deal. His OBP fits a big need for the Cubs, and more than offsets the D issues.

I don't expect his D to improve or be a huge, huge negative.

Getting on base is what we need in front of the big boys, so this is a good move.

 

[CSF77]

I'd be concerned at what you're losing in OBP. If the gist is you'd be starting Alcantara ahead of Coghlan you're talking about subbing a .254 OBP player for a .340 lifetime OBP player. That's not quite fair with the small sample size from Alcantara but even if he raises that to .305 in 2015 or so that's a huge difference. Those two getting on base ahead of Rizzo, Bryant, Castro is going to allow for a lot of runs to be scored.

I posted .316 is a realistic OBA next year. .254 he would be in Iowa. He would have no business on the team at that point.

Now the problem with Coghlan is lack of spark. He gets on base but that is all he gives. Fowler gives some speed. Coghlan does not. So if Maddon wants to try some running and Coghlan is on 2B and Fowler at 1B then that is nixed. But Alcantara on 2B Fowler on 1B and a high contact guy like Castro up it opens up opportunities. Having a guy on 2B with plus speed turns into more runs on singles (which Castro will be putting up more so than not).

I'm all about OBA out of the #1/2 hitter due to the amount of PA's they get. Towards 700 vs 600 for a 7-8 hitter. That is 100 more AB's. right ahead of the RBI production. Alcantara become RBI opportunity around 180 times hitting #9.

Now if they were planning on hitting Baez #2 then it would change the dynamic where you want a OBA hitter batting #9. Baez should bring a higher SLG where you want guys on base to be runs. Castro on the other hand will add more singles thus the need for speed to leg out more run opportunities.

 

[chibears55]

Why do some think this is a 1 yr pjck up ?
He what 28/29 ? He has a good season and provide what they need at the leadoff spot why wouldn't they try to extend him and keep him ?

 

[SilenceS]

Why do some think this is a 1 yr pjck up ?
He what 28/29 ? He has a good season and provide what they need at the leadoff spot why wouldn't they try to extend him and keep him ?

The Cubs have other options and money.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Why do some think this is a 1 yr pjck up ?
He what 28/29 ? He has a good season and provide what they need at the leadoff spot why wouldn't they try to extend him and keep him ?

Albert Almora for one. If not him Alcantara might grow into the role and worse case scenario they go out and find a guy who fits what they want a little better than Fowler. He's a good player and a nice fit for 2015 but ideally you want just a little better with some better D and some speed.