Darvish is a Cub!

beckdawg

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They're still not better than the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers.

Projections disagree. Fangraphs had Houston and LA at 52.0 and 50.2 fWAR prior to this signing with the cubs 3rd at 47.6. They have Darvish projected at 3.6 fWAR meaning this addition puts the cubs at 51.2 so just Houston as "better" than them.
 

chibears55

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Darvish and Chatwood < or > then Arrieta and Lackey in the cubs rotation with Lester Quintana Hendricks?

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PickSix

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Their going with Morrow ...

I think their done adding now, maybe an OFer but i still think they go with one of their own..
Hanneman Zagunis Bourjas etc

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Yeah, I get giving Morrow the job. But if for some reason that plan goes south, it sounds like there might be wiggle room to sneak a closer in at the trade deadline. You are only paying about a third of an annual salary at that point.
 

chibears55

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Yeah, I get giving Morrow the job. But if for some reason that plan goes south, it sounds like there might be wiggle room to sneak a closer in at the trade deadline. You are only paying about a third of an annual salary at that point.
I hope they dont need to go that route again..
Why i was hoping they brought in a closer and kept morrow as set up, don't want another 2016 where they need to trade away prospects or najor league guys to get a closer

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beckdawg

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Darvish and Chatwood < or > then Arrieta and Lackey in the cubs rotation with Lester Quintana Hendricks?

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Darvish is far more consistent IMO than Arrieta. Peak Arrieta is probably better but Darvish's career k/bb per 9 are 11.04/3.32. That's ridiculous. Arreita is a career 8.29/3.12 and his best year was only 9.28/1.89. The main difference here is that Arrieta at his best is still not as good of a K machine but had a better walk rate. Thing is the past 2 years Darvish's walk rate has been even better at 2.78 and 2.80 and his K rate has still be over 10 per 9 at 11.84 and 10.08. The cubs have a deep staff but I'd argue he's their best pitcher right now. I think you could argue for any of Q, Hendricks or Lester as being potentially better than Arrieta if Arrieta didn't have elite control like 2015.

As for Lackey vs Chatwood depends. Chatwood has great upside. Lackey was more of an innings eater at this point than real potent option. Way I see it is Chatwood has the potential to be as good as a #2 or #3. That may not be your most likely outcome but the potential is there. Lackey at best was probably a #3 or #4 at his age but you have a better idea of what he'll be. Chatwood could easily be a pretty meh #5.

Regardless I'd say the got an upgrade in both cases.
 

anotheridiot

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OK Jake, your turn, say yes so these luxury tax gurus can STFU.
 

chibears55

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Darvish is far more consistent IMO than Arrieta. Peak Arrieta is probably better but Darvish's career k/bb per 9 are 11.04/3.32. That's ridiculous. Arreita is a career 8.29/3.12 and his best year was only 9.28/1.89. The main difference here is that Arrieta at his best is still not as good of a K machine but had a better walk rate. Thing is the past 2 years Darvish's walk rate has been even better at 2.78 and 2.80 and his K rate has still be over 10 per 9 at 11.84 and 10.08. The cubs have a deep staff but I'd argue he's their best pitcher right now. I think you could argue for any of Q, Hendricks or Lester as being potentially better than Arrieta if Arrieta didn't have elite control like 2015.

As for Lackey vs Chatwood depends. Chatwood has great upside. Lackey was more of an innings eater at this point than real potent option. Way I see it is Chatwood has the potential to be as good as a #2 or #3. That may not be your most likely outcome but the potential is there. Lackey at best was probably a #3 or #4 at his age but you have a better idea of what he'll be. Chatwood could easily be a pretty meh #5.

Regardless I'd say the got an upgrade in both cases.
Upgrade is all i was looking for...
Have to think with age Lester regresses a bit but with that you have to think Quintana improves off of last year and Hendricks is better with a healthy year...
Im really liking the potentials of this rotation...

Cubs are basically set in rotation now for next 3 seasons barring injuries or major suck ass out of someone, with all 5 under team control..

Gives them time to groom their young guys in system and bring them up when their absolutely ready



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CSF77

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Upgrade is all i was looking for...
Have to think with age Lester regresses a bit but with that you have to think Quintana improves off of last year and Hendricks is better with a healthy year...
Im really liking the potentials of this rotation...

Cubs are basically set in rotation now for next 3 seasons barring injuries or major suck ass out of someone, with all 5 under team control..

Gives them time to groom their young guys in system and bring them up when their absolutely ready



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They could now try to trade for Coleme. Montgomery is going to be pissed. Cartiani most likely is blocked now. And Alzolay has no clear road to starting.

It would be a strong offer to the Rays.
 

chibears55

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chibears55

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They could now try to trade for Coleme. Montgomery is going to be pissed. Cartiani most likely is blocked now. And Alzolay has no clear road to starting.

It would be a strong offer to the Rays.
Hate to lose Monty but id love for that to happen

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Shawon0Meter

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Glad they got him! The contract is a little better than I expected.
 

jooo83

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Does anyone know yet how the contract is structured?
 

beckdawg

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So I was thinking I probably do a bad job of telling people why Yu's k/9 is such a big deal. But when i was headed to wendy's for some lunch I had a good comparison come to mind. Cubs fans loved Kerry Wood til his arm fell apart. He was an absurd K machine. His best years as a starter in terms of k/9 were 12.58/4.59 as a rookie 11.35/4.27 in 2003, 11.20/4.75 in 2001 and his only other year above 10 k/9 was the 10 start 2005 where he was 10.50/3.55. In all his career k/bb per 9 rate was 10.32/4.34. Darvish has 3 seasons over 11 k/9 and his walk rate is almost a full walk per 9 lower which is huge.

Another way to look at this is since he came to the majors in 2012 he is now #1 behind only the passed Jose Fernandez in terms of K/9. Scherzer is #2 at 10.91, Sale is #3 at 10.55, Robbie Ray is #4 at 10.51, Salazar is #5 at 10.51, Strasburg is #6 at 10.47, Syndergaard is #7 at 10.31, Kershaw is #8 at 10.15 and McCullers is #9 at 10.15 as the only guys over 10 k/9. Darvish is literally the only player in baseball at 11 k/9 and the cubs got him on what is basically a #2-3 starter deal.
 

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So I was thinking I probably do a bad job of telling people why Yu's k/9 is such a big deal. But when i was headed to wendy's for some lunch I had a good comparison come to mind. Cubs fans loved Kerry Wood til his arm fell apart. He was an absurd K machine. His best years as a starter in terms of k/9 were 12.58/4.59 as a rookie 11.35/4.27 in 2003, 11.20/4.75 in 2001 and his only other year above 10 k/9 was the 10 start 2005 where he was 10.50/3.55. In all his career k/bb per 9 rate was 10.32/4.34. Darvish has 3 seasons over 11 k/9 and his walk rate is almost a full walk per 9 lower which is huge.

Another way to look at this is since he came to the majors in 2012 he is now #1 behind only the passed Jose Fernandez in terms of K/9. Scherzer is #2 at 10.91, Sale is #3 at 10.55, Robbie Ray is #4 at 10.51, Salazar is #5 at 10.51, Strasburg is #6 at 10.47, Syndergaard is #7 at 10.31, Kershaw is #8 at 10.15 and McCullers is #9 at 10.15 as the only guys over 10 k/9. Darvish is literally the only player in baseball at 11 k/9 and the cubs got him on what is basically a #2-3 starter deal.
Wendy's WTF, man
 

Shawon0Meter

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I'm seeing multiple people saying Yu can opt out after 2 seasons

Very interesting, smart move on his part
 

CSF77

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Hate to lose Monty but id love for that to happen

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I would rather see Monty get a chance to start honestly. This is just like Dan Straily. Came over. Never caught on then traded out. Now he is a solid mid tier piece.

Way I look at it is his highest value is in a trade piece with his age and control. Cubs have depth at LH PB where trading him makes sense. Add to it they have Smyly shelved if needed down the road
 

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