Darvish is a Cub!

[CubsFaninMN]

You are miss understanding the convo between me and Bears. Monty is put out of the rotation now and I feel that he holds value to a team that would give him a shot to start. He could turn into another Dan Straily with a good opertunity to establish himself.

As far as being a Cub I’m pretty sure that he is disappointed as he was training to start and this is a door shut.

IMO if the Cubs could swing a deal for Coleme involving him and Cartrini they should. I also think that Alozay should also be involved as his road is blocked also now.

Breaking into a contender is not a easy task. It is all about timing. Judge struck when the Yanks were in a semi rebuild. Alzolay, Cartiani would have to get in if a emergency and even then it would be stints in limited roles. Montgomery falls back to 1-2 inning work which is depressing his value.

Just saying it holds more value for the Cubs to make a splash now. They just went all in and it makes sense to stack the pen now.

I'd say I agree with you, except that I wouldn't include Alzolay. For me, when you have one or two guys who look like they could start popping up into very useful pieces right around the time your other starters' contracts start running out (and they start hitting age 36 to 38 years, in that range), I want to keep the young A and AA SPs in the system. At least the ones that sparkle the brightest down in A and AA.

That said, I think you'er right that this is the kind of thing Theo likes to do. He has a basic concept, in terms of building talent, of putting together a competitive starting 8 (or 9 with a DH if you're in the AL) through the farm system and good trades for high-value pieces of other peoples' farm systems. Bubble that together in AAA for a year or two and they've been exploding onto the big league level. But he doesn't seem to want to develop starters that way. His MO seems to be to buy starters as FAs in their late 20's and early 30's, give them a fairly competent bullpen through the farm system and trades, and buy pitching as needed to stay competitive in trade deadline moves.

If you figure that, in two or three years, all you'll need to do is pick up two or three SP FAs over a two-year period, and continue to pull the Usual Suspects through your bullpen, you can maintain a competitive pitching staff up until you start to lose Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras, Harper (notionally), et al to their own free agency years. That supposed seven-year World Series Window That's where you start the next tear down and rebuild. And who the hell knows what the talent pool will look like in three or four years, eh?

So, yeah -- anything they can do to both max out the current 40-man with talent, and put depth into the farm system (if only to serve as trading fodder for later pitching acquisition moves), they likely will do. Whether or not we end up seeing a true high-end starter slip through our fingers...

 

[chibears55]

Just throwing this out there to keep in mind..

Epstein deal runs thru 2021 and coincidentally so does pretty much every core player on this team right now besides Heyward and now Darvish who both have opt outs...

So, i think itll be interesting to see just how Epstein etc. focuses on farm system for the future beyond 2020 and how much he puts into the current team to win another one between now and 2021...

His actions may tell us if he looking to continue on with cubs after this contract is up and tries to build up another strong core in system or if he plans on leaving and focuses more on winning another title...

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[CSF77]

I’m pretty sure Theo would move on when the window passes and lets another group make their mark.

The Cubs have a window going and Theo created it and with the current rule system you pretty much have to wreck it and sell it off and have a solid scouting team to amass a fresh crop. The Sox got it from watching the Cubs and went full tilt also. It is what has to happen to flood the system with quality talent.

Sitting and doing nothing just sees your roster get older and more expensive. Holding little trade weight. You start to look like the Phillies before their overhaul. Ya you might get lucky and strike gold here and there but with out a full shift in team direction the turnover is limited to the current market prices.

So getting to Alzolay. I believe that he holds enough weight to pull the trigger on Coleme. He should be in Iowa and his road is blocked. His future is the same as Edwards and it could be much more. Unfortunately cash investments dictate decisions.

 

[DanTown]

The beauty about 6/126 is that the cost AAV isn't so high that you can't get creative. Obviously the 21 AAV is the luxury tax but we'll have to see what the numbers are actually year-to-year because there's a chance you get a good price for Yu's later years that you really can't do when you have a 6/150 or higher type deal without having some insane earlier years.

 

[CSF77]

The beauty about 6/126 is that the cost AAV isn't so high that you can't get creative. Obviously the 21 AAV is the luxury tax but we'll have to see what the numbers are actually year-to-year because there's a chance you get a good price for Yu's later years that you really can't do when you have a 6/150 or higher type deal without having some insane earlier years.

I like it where he earns bonuses. So it is a reward system that reflects on each year. So if he pitches like a ace that year he gets paid as such. If he doesnt he falls back to #2 commitments.

Hopefully that model can go forward in future deals and becomes a trend setter to fix the market.

Players should be rewarded for producing above their projections. A model like this is ideal for Arretta. Give a baseline then incentives to set as goals for higher rewards.

 

[anotheridiot]

Cot's had them at $32,698,258 under before the Darvish signing. So if we assume for the moment that is -$21 mil you have ~$11.5 mil to play with. However, I have to caution that depending on the incentives you have to factor in additional space because the way those work is if they trigger you have to have accounted for them.

So to answer your question, kind of yes. Clearly you can't go out and trade for Chapman/Jensen but $11 mil would be able to fit someone like Colome. However, they could still add some guys to the roster that aren't currently on it. Gimenez seems likely now that Darvish is in the fold as the back up catcher. I imagine he's only going to get league min but that's ~$500k. And I think Bourjos who if he makes the team has a like $1.5 mil deal as well. So you're likely looking at money being tight.

Every team has to put 13 million of the cap towards bonus and incentives from the prior season, so they are already over. Why stop now?

 

[CSF77]

Every team has to put 13 million of the cap towards bonus and incentives from the prior season, so they are already over. Why stop now?

They were at 159. Yu adds 21. Or 180. Add 13 193. Or under the 197.

Math is hard

 

[Hammer]

First of all, great deal, Darvish was that much needed piece for Cubs 2018 title run.

Also, I don't see Chatwood as a lock for that #5 SP (dude is plain and simple below average starter), IMO, there will be a battle between him and Montgomery for the spot.
And another thing, I don't see neither Chatwood or Montgomery as pitchers who would block Alzolay's path to majors when he's deemed ready by coaching staff.

 

[beckdawg]

Every team has to put 13 million of the cap towards bonus and incentives from the prior season, so they are already over. Why stop now?

Cot's already took that into account.

 

[CSF77]

First of all, great deal, Darvish was that much needed piece for Cubs 2018 title run.

Also, I don't see Chatwood as a lock for that #5 SP (dude is plain and simple below average starter), IMO, there will be a battle between him and Montgomery for the spot.
And another thing, I don't see neither Chatwood or Montgomery as pitchers who would block Alzolay's path to majors when he's deemed ready by coaching staff.

We cant make assumptions on Chatwood. His production was altered by Coors. He was a 12/6 curve/4 seem guy before and had to change to a 3/4 arm slot to adapt to the conditions.

He may become a steal honestly or it may take a year of readjusting back to what he was before.

I personally believe that he has some upside going on and should end up a bargain. Theo’s Track record is pretty damn good on evaluating talent. Except for E-Jax which seemed reactionary

 

[chibears55]

A little clearer look on the deal...

http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/...and-reaction-love-for-yu-rotation-order-more/

The deal is not officially official yet, though that figures to come in the next two days or so.

According to multiple sources, Darvish’s contract can escalate up to $150 million if he wins multiple Cy Young awards over the coming seasons, but the exact particulars are not yet known. On top of that, Darvish receives some kind of no-trade protection (again, the full details aren’t quite out yet), and an opt-out after the second year of his deal. Soon enough, we’ll have a clearer picture of this contract, but for now, those are the details we know about.

As for my thoughts on the deal … I’m super stoked. I cannot believe the Cubs were able to land Yu Darvish on a deal that’ll pay him just $21M annually. That’s simply not that much to pay for one of the best 15-25 pitchers in baseball, and, of course, in the new luxury-tax-matters environment, the benefit of added “cap space” from a lower AAV has its own value.



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[chibears55]

First of all, great deal, Darvish was that much needed piece for Cubs 2018 title run.

Also, I don't see Chatwood as a lock for that #5 SP (dude is plain and simple below average starter), IMO, there will be a battle between him and Montgomery for the spot.
And another thing, I don't see neither Chatwood or Montgomery as pitchers who would block Alzolay's path to majors when he's deemed ready by coaching staff.

Doubt their paying the guy 38 mil over 3 years to be a long reliever...
That 5 spot is his going into the season...

Monty if not traded is in the pen and will be that 6th starter...

If everything goes right and starters make all their starts , i could see Maddon going to Monty at least twice a month starting in May to give the starters an extra day off or two through the rotation and that will give Monty at least 10 starts..

Cubs jump out to a fast start and build a double digit lead at break, i can see Maddon giving Lester and Darvish some games off in July and August to keep them fresh for playoffs....

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[chibears55]

https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/962775805049815040

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[TL1961]

"Starting in May"?

I don't need to see our best starters giving up starts to our #6 at that point in the season.

 

[CSF77]

"Starting in May"?

I don't need to see our best starters giving up starts to our #6 at that point in the season.

I’m not a huge fan of 6 man rotations. They are better off keeping them on regular rest.

If anything Montgomery needs to be in a concistant role and then use the extra man rule on DH to bring up Iowa’s starter for that day

 

[chibears55]

I’m not a huge fan of 6 man rotations. They are better off keeping them on regular rest.

If anything Montgomery needs to be in a concistant role and then use the extra man rule on DH to bring up Iowa’s starter for that day

Lester 34 , no reason not to give him an extra day or two rest each month to keep him fresh for September and beyond...

Darvish will be 32, he just came off of pitching a long season into WS...
Remember how that affected cubs SP last season?
No reason not to give him extra rest each month to keep his fresh for September and beyond...


Also...

Why would they bring up a SP from Iowa when they play at an AL park?
Not like he gonna start or even play

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[TL1961]

Lester 34 , no reason not to give him an extra day or two rest each month to keep him fresh for September and beyond...

Darvish will be 32, he just came off of pitching a long season into WS...
Remember how that affected cubs SP last season?
No reason not to give him extra rest each month to keep his fresh for September and beyond...


Also...

Why would they bring up a SP from Iowa when they play at an AL park?
Not like he gonna start or even play

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"No reason"?

How about Montgomery is not as good as Lester? That's my reason.
You are suggesting, as early as may, take starts away from your best pitchers for your 6th best starter. That's nuts in May.

If you're in the homestretch and in good shape in the standings, fine.
If there are injury issues, there's no choice - you are forced to make moves.

But voluntarily? In May?

 

[chibears55]

"No reason"?

How about Montgomery is not as good as Lester? That's my reason.
You are suggesting, as early as may, take starts away from your best pitchers for your 6th best starter. That's nuts in May.

If you're in the homestretch and in good shape in the standings, fine.
If there are injury issues, there's no choice - you are forced to make moves.

But voluntarily? In May?

Who said take starts away?
I said give them an extra day off...

Meaning instead of pitching on 5th day, theyll pitch on 6th day with that extra day rest..

I can see Maddon doing that once a month to keep them fresh, especially for Lester and Darvish...

Depending on how it going and if they can build a double digit lead in 2nd half, then i can see Maddon having Lester and Darvish skip starts here and there...


Lester
Darvish
Quintana
Hendricks
Chatwood
Monty
Lester
Darvish
Quintana
Hendricks
Chatwood
Lester
Monty
Darvish
Quintana
Hendricks
Chatwood
Lester
Darvish
Quintana
Hendricks
Chatwood


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[TL1961]

You're going in circles now.

I understand the possibility of doing it later in the season if you have a lead. That is far, far different than doing it in May.

And if you don't understand that having a 6th starter takes starts away from the 1st and 2nd (and others), I don't know what to say. There are a limited number of games, and if a 6th starter gets some starts, they have to come from someone. If a 6th starter is involved, all start fewer games.

 

[CSF77]

Lester 34 , no reason not to give him an extra day or two rest each month to keep him fresh for September and beyond...

Darvish will be 32, he just came off of pitching a long season into WS...
Remember how that affected cubs SP last season?
No reason not to give him extra rest each month to keep his fresh for September and beyond...


Also...

Why would they bring up a SP from Iowa when they play at an AL park?
Not like he gonna start or even play

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Double header. Not DH.

Pitchers run on 5 man rotations. They get a extra day off on off days and rain outs. trying to go with a 6 man should be a season long decision where starters would be let go to up their pitch counts and they subtract a pen arm.

Some teams have talked about it but I doubt ownership would OK it. That is adding 30 more starters and the income that goes along with it. It took forever to add a 5th starter as it is

Add to it adding higher work loads with a extra day off is something that could lead to injury to body’s that have been trained in a certain way.

There are too many factors to concider before making uneducated statements.