Dewssox79's Over/Under Total HRs For Adam Dunn: Current Total: 41 kids!

[DewsSox79]

Now, I love me some Moneyball, SABR, Bill James, Voros, Sheehan, etc. etc., but this is a dangerous line that really needs to be addressed, because it is irresponsible to say that BA means nothing.

It does mean something. It shouldn't carry as much weight as it had in the past, but to completely dismiss the BA stat is kinda dumb. There is no one number that defines a player, and the subsequent chase that a section of the Stats community (of which I consider myself a member) has embarked upon to find One number to define a player is pretty much dumbing down player analysis.

BA should still carry weight, it is indicative of how well a player makes contact in an arbitrarily selected amount of Plate Appearances. Juan Pierre does have some value because he can make contact. How much that means is lesser than how often a player gets on base, but it doesn't mean absolutely nothing. I mean shit, Ichiro has a lot of value and he is all BA and SPD.

To get to the Alex Rios vs. Adam Dunn stuff, it isn't crazy to say that Alex Rios has been better this year. Yes they are two very different players, one plays plus defense, the other one doesn't. Rios has 18 more XBH than Dunn (36 2B, 8 3B, 24 HR for Rios, 19 2B, 0 3B, 41 HR's for Dunn), which drives up his OPS which is also higher than Dunn's. Those last to factors, XBH and OPS, are driven up by Rios's BA, which of course has no value, except that it helps translate into some extra points of slugging.

Rios is inconsistent as hell, he is maddening and doesn't have near the track record that Dunn has, but there are red flags for Dunn even in this season. Dunn strikes out a lot, and that's fine, but his contact rate has continued to drop in the American League. He doesn't hit for average and that's fine too, but a .208 is still considered a red flag when you are evaluating where a player is in his career.

Perhaps this will become a sig line next year, but Adam Dunn to me looks like a guy that is at the end of his career. If you want to roll dice with that, I get the rationale. But it is stupid to completely disregard Alex Rios just because and ignore the year he's had thus far.

Both have had tremendous bounce back years, both do merit consideration for staying on this team long term. I would just rather do it with Rios.

When we are discussing specifically a player like Adam Dunn than yes, BA is pretty dumb to use as an evaluation measuring stick.

Is BA irrelevant? somewhat yes. Of course you need some players with a BA that is descent but Id rather have loaded up OBP for atleast the first 4 batters in any given lineup.

Getting On Base in the most important. a guy hitting .290 with a .310 OBP in my eyes, sucks as a hitter.

 

[MRubio52]

When we are discussing specifically a player like Adam Dunn than yes, BA is pretty dumb to use as an evaluation measuring stick.

Is BA irrelevant? somewhat yes. Of course you need some players with a BA that is descent but Id rather have loaded up OBP for atleast the first 4 batters in any given lineup.

Getting On Base in the most important. a guy hitting .290 with a .310 OBP in my eyes, sucks as a hitter.

For sure, that's a given, I guess it's really coming from a young player evaluation perspective now that I've kinda gotten into that world over the past 2 years now.

I love me some OBP but with young players, 19-20-21 I do prefer aggressive guys to passive guys because OBP can be so misleading in the lower levels.

To me, OBP massively important in MLB, extremely misleading in player eval in the minors/college/HS level.

Really I was just saying that all things should be taken into account when evaluating a player and no one number should be primary.

 

[dabynsky]

Ehhh, I like Dews most of the time and I don't like getting into "comment wars." I would just prefer a real forum of discussion if at all possible.

You need to post more.

 

[DewsSox79]

For sure, that's a given, I guess it's really coming from a young player evaluation perspective now that I've kinda gotten into that world over the past 2 years now.

I love me some OBP but with young players, 19-20-21 I do prefer aggressive guys to passive guys because OBP can be so misleading in the lower levels.

To me, OBP massively important in MLB, extremely misleading in player eval in the minors/college/HS level.

Really I was just saying that all things should be taken into account when evaluating a player and no one number should be primary.

I get that, but all I am saying is there are different types of players. I mean look at Castro, he is evaluated and embraced because he hits, thats what he does. For most of the year his OBP was not so good until recently he climbed back up.....no one will really dog him if his OBP is low because of his contact. Guys like Dunn are specific as well to specific stats.

 

[DewsSox79]

Ehhh, I like Dews most of the time and I don't like getting into "comment wars." I would just prefer a real forum of discussion if at all possible.

There is a trend where I argue and become a bit hostile when it is fans homering it up or always sticking up for their team no matter what choices they make. The fans who are honest with their thoughts and dont let loyalty get in the way of their opinions (have their own) I get a long with the best.

I just want to have a good baseball discussion without members drinking kool aid on everything. I dont care what sport it is, just some people need to put down the kool aid or atleast drink a bit less. Its ok to agree with things ones team does, but everything is a bit much. Not speaking to you or anyone specifically just explaining how I work.

 

[MRubio52]

Castro is going to be fascinating for me to see what he turns into. He does need to walk more but I don't think it's a tragedy to have a SS who puts up 280/330/440 which is what I think he ends up being for his career (maybe higher on the AVG. I might be undervaluing his hit tool). I would take that in a heart beat.

As you noted and as has been written by WSD and Bleacher Nation, his approach changed in the second half.

1st half:
.291 .314 .422

2nd half:
.276 .332 .439

I really hope it's the start of a smarter approach by Castro. His baseball IQ has gone up in a lot of areas, including his fielding, IMO.

 

[MRubio52]

but I digress and that's a completely different discussion for a different thread.