Dexter Fowler is BACK

[brett05]

People are obsessed with getting a young pitcher. MLB network was talking Julio Teheran. I don't mind a young pitcher, but not now, and I think we could get one with our minor leaguers. I would also think this would be more a deadline move then a right before spring training games move.

I don't think the quality of minor league guys are there for a young proven pitcher. An unproven potential could be had perhaps like a Julio Urias if the right specs package came back as an example.

I don't think you get a guy like Gray or Quintana for the minor league pieces currently with the Cubs. Because of that, they should either stay put or go for a potential TOR minor league arm

 

[beckdawg]

Javier Baez is now our 5th OF. lol

Cue the rumors, now everyone has Soler and Baez being traded for everything you can imagine. I don't understand the need to trade. You have Fowler for one year. 2 maybe. Zobrist is old as shit. Don't get cute. You still have plenty of specs in the minors. Use them because you don't have any type of impact player coming until 2017 or later.

I think the bigger thing is just getting that level of prospect(baez/soler) the PAs you need to develop. That's my only concern and it's not really a huge one with Baez because as I've said for awhile now, I think any day off for infielders and most PH situations he's going to be the guy. To make Schwarber and Soler work I think you're probably going to have to see some jumping through hoops. I sort of think Heyward might be your only "everyday" outfielder. Schwarber can probably realistically get like 100-150 PAs out of DH/C/PH. So he'd probably only need around 400 in LF to have a "full season."

If memory serves, I think Fowler struggled some what with RHP which might help some if they choose to rest him some vs strong RHP. Both he and Soler also have minor injury concerns in the past so it might not be a terrible idea to have them only playing in 130-140 games anyways. But given this set up, if they do decide to go with a 13 man bullpen I tend to think having just 4 OF with Baez being your emergency 5th makes sense because those 4 guys are going to need playing time.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I don't think Fowler will be the #4, he will be the starting CF, allowing Heyward to play in RF

I don't know how LF is going to play out or catcher because Soler, Montero, and Schwarber can't all play

Soler isn't going to have his growth stunted by Fowler. The Cubs wouldn't have done this deal, if it negatively impacted either Schwarber or Soler.

 

[SilenceS]

I don't think the quality of minor league guys are there for a young proven pitcher. An unproven potential could be had perhaps like a Julio Urias if the right specs package came back as an example.

I don't think you get a guy like Gray or Quintana for the minor league pieces currently with the Cubs. Because of that, they should either stay put or go for a potential TOR minor league arm

They have 6 players in the top 100 and 2 in the top 50. Thats not including major league ready arms like CJ Edwards and Pierce Johnson. They could haul a pretty good young pitcher with some sort of package.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

People are obsessed with getting a young pitcher. MLB network was talking Julio Teheran. I don't mind a young pitcher, but not now, and I think we could get one with our minor leaguers. I would also think this would be more a deadline move then a right before spring training games move.

I'm among the obsessed but even I don't think you do that right now. This team is deep everywhere. If there is an early injury they can withstand that. The pitching should be good enough to win some games, hell it's probably at least good enough to win in the playoffs so what do I know? I'm just a pessimist and covet the Mets rotation. I don't make a trade for Teheran now under any circumstances if it costs Soler or Baez. At the deadline it may be a different story but who knows? I know a lot of people are picking the Rays to win the AL East but I'm not among them, they'll have pitchers to deal. Ditto the Marlins and Fernandez and long rumored A's and Sonny Gray. There are probably others. I'm also not buying the Indians as the best team in the AL as some are either so there's another possibility. Now it's time to get ready for the season. This team is loaded.

 

[brett05]

They have 6 players in the top 100 and 2 in the top 50. Thats not including major league ready arms like CJ Edwards and Pierce Johnson. They could haul a pretty good young pitcher with some sort of package.

I agree, as long as he's not a proven MLB TOR type. That's my point.

 

[JZsportsfan]

This team could use an elite pen arm or SP if they want to make a trade, but I don't think they need to make a trade to address any issues currently

 

[beckdawg]

With Lackey, Fowler, Zobrist and Heyward the cubs have added 14.9 fWAR last season at averages of $16 mil, $14 mil, $8 mil(assuming he declines 2017 option), and $23 mil for a total of $61 mil. That's ~$4 mil per fWAR. Granted there's some additional factors there(2 draft picks and opt outs) but that is so much value on your money as fangraphs generally considers $7-8 mil per fWAR as the going rate.

 

[ChiTeez.com]

Very happy to see Dexter back! It's crazy to look at this team on paper and NOT think they are going to do very very well. Here's to praying everyone stays healthy and our pitchers can have a great year! Go Cubs Go!

 

[NCChiFan]

Cubs get Fowler back to Center, move Heyward to his natural position... This has been an amazing off season. No doubt about it, the Cubs are all in... Like I wasn't excited enough before... !!!

 

[MassHavoc]

With Lackey, Fowler, Zobrist and Heyward the cubs have added 14.9 fWAR last season at averages of $16 mil, $14 mil, $8 mil(assuming he declines 2017 option), and $23 mil for a total of $61 mil. That's ~$4 mil per fWAR. Granted there's some additional factors there(2 draft picks and opt outs) but that is so much value on your money as fangraphs generally considers $7-8 mil per fWAR as the going rate.

Sorry, I'm slightly dumb when it comes to some of the baseball stats, or hell not even slightly, but how does the fWAR work for Fowler if he's coming back? Isn't it a stat against himself? Or I guess since he's changing positions it's his stats over that position last year or something? So, heywards stats increse over fowlers, and fowlers over who is being pushed out from last year gives you the aggregate increase or something like that?

 

[85Bears]

Theo be praised. :bowrofl:

 

[beckdawg]

Sorry, I'm slightly dumb when it comes to some of the baseball stats, or hell not even slightly, but how does the fWAR work for Fowler if he's coming back? Isn't it a stat against himself? Or I guess since he's changing positions it's his stats over that position last year or something? So, heywards stats increse over fowlers, and fowlers over who is being pushed out from last year gives you the aggregate increase or something like that?

Well I just took the fWAR totals each posted last season and added them together assuming they were all FA's since they technically were. As to how it "improves" the cubs it sort of depends on a number of factors chief among them who starts. If you go here you can see projected fWAR totals for all the cubs and the thing on the side has combined team fWAR. It's not 100% 1-1 total for wins but basically the projection thinks the cubs are around a 100 win team. I believe the "replacement level" team is estimated to win 47 games so if you add that to the 53.6 fWAR the cubs have you'd get 100.6.

I don't off the top of my head remember what it was prior to these moves. probably just the difference in Cogs projection vs Fowler's is all that changed. As for how the different positions change things, I'm not 100% sure myself. I do know for a fact that the defensive portion of fWAR is position based. So, if you're projected to be say a plus defender at LF it's not as valuable as a plus defender in CF. I also believe the batting portion has a position based factor in it as well though it's not that big.

All that being said, from a pure hitting standpoint Fowler is possibly being oversold. Don't get me wrong, I love the move it's just that you're essentially swapping Fowler for Cogs and from a hitting standpoint the value isn't much. Where I think you see the value is that as I've said on here before, if Heyward had gotten hurt you're a lot worse off than you would be now if Fowler or Heyward gets hurt simply because Cogs, Schwarber and Soler can't play LF. Fowler and Heyward essentially have you covered there now and if the worst happens you still have Baez. It's just a better overall fit of parts even if Cogs was a really good hitter.

Also, if you have any other WAR questions feel free to ask and I'll answer to the best of my knowledge.

 

[DanTown]

With Lackey, Fowler, Zobrist and Heyward the cubs have added 14.9 fWAR last season at averages of $16 mil, $14 mil, $8 mil(assuming he declines 2017 option), and $23 mil for a total of $61 mil. That's ~$4 mil per fWAR. Granted there's some additional factors there(2 draft picks and opt outs) but that is so much value on your money as fangraphs generally considers $7-8 mil per fWAR as the going rate.

Just as an example. five 8 WAR players wouldn't all be 8 WAR players on the same team due to certain lack of opportunities so it's not quite a 1-1 analogy.

 

[MassHavoc]

Thanks, I still can't decide how much I like stats anymore in baseball because you can use any number of them to tell any issue from either side. Kinda like real like. I loved when it was simple and you just looked at batting average. hah.

 

[CSF77]

I don't get this deal at all.

 

[beckdawg]

Thanks, I still can't decide how much I like stats anymore in baseball because you can use any number of them to tell any issue from either side. Kinda like real like. I loved when it was simple and you just looked at batting average. hah.

I feel like the best way to talk about WAR is runs. Basically 10 runs equates to 1 WAR. It's obviously a bit more complicated than the traditional runs stat. But at it's core that's what WAR is. You have run prevention(defense) and run accumulation. And at the end of the day, runs are what wins games. How they get to those figures as I said is complicated but that's more because they are attempting to be as accurate as possible.

Anyways, that's how I like to look at most of the stats. For example, when you talk defensive metrics you can use DRS(defensive runs saved). Jason Heyward is typically around 20-25 DRS which is roughly worth 2-2.5 WAR.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't get this deal at all.

I'm almost certain it comes down to what I was getting at with the Jackson talk. The cubs lacked CF options point blank. Whether or not you believe Baez can handle CF there's just not much sense in risking it when you can get a player like Fowler for $8 mil. They had to move Cogs which is a shame but at the end of the day he was making around $5 mil if memory serves so you're only taking on around $3 mil and you swap someone who can't play CF for someone who can play every OF position. And Cogs was likely gone after this season anyways.

 

[CSF77]

I can see that. Winning window

I'm wondering how it plays out with Schwarber's playing time

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Fowler is in search of the Holy Grail. I've been a Cubs fan since 1980 and I've never seen anything like this. It's absolutely staggering how many people have signed on to try to bring a World Series to Wrigley. Any one who is apart of a Cubs team that gets a parade in Lakeview will forever go down in Chicago lore.

Fowler will play every day in CF and bat lead off. He'll have Zobrist batting 2nd right behind him. While it's tough to imagine a player of Soler's caliber sitting, that's exactly what will happen. Soler and Baez will come off the bench. They'll be used a lot (especially with injuries) but for now, Soler is the odd man out of the every day line up.

Soler would have a prime spot in virtually every other team's line up, showing just how insane our depth is.