DJ Mock 1.0 Surprise at #10

Xplosive

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dennehy

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Sorry for being lazy and not checking beyond the 1st page...
I don't care, just thought the two together might create more discussion.
 

Xplosive

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I just look at the resources teams in position to trade actually have, as well as their needs.


Very few teams in the teens have ample resources, and most have needs where giving up a second rounder would really hamper them. Several have only four or five total picks and or no second or third rounder. These are also teams that are mostly just outside the playoffs and aspiring to them, but have several big holes.

I think people also tend to under estimate the difference in most GM's perception of quality talent from 10 to 20, especially this year where it drops fast.

All this is to say that I think a trade down is unlikely.
Falcons are definitely in win now mode @ #14/#46 (overpay)... Seahawks could want to get a difference maker at #18/50 which is a perfect match for the Bears at #10
 

Les Grossman

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The problem is he's nowhere near being a top 10 prospect and probably won't go in the entire first round. Position of need or not, he's a reach at 10. He will be there with the Bears early 2nds, which is still probably a reach. As a very simple critique, there's no world where they should take Booker over KBJ. If he doesn't work at tackle, he moves to guard and will probably be better.
you think Booker is a 2nd rounder?

Seems like quite the departure from this mock draft.
 

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Falcons are definitely in win now mode @ #14/#46 (overpay)... Seahawks could want to get a difference maker at #18/50 which is a perfect match for the Bears at #10
Possibilities yes. If the Falcons want to come up they can go a couple spots higher, though.

SEA probably, but I doubt Poles will want to drop down that far. Limited top end talent this year.

To me there just isn't much to really drive a trade down in the first round this year. "Win now mode" probably means adding 2 impact players rather than 1, for teams with pretty obvious weaknesses like ATL and SEA. ATL also has only 4 total picks and no 3rd. Seems like that would be a huge gamble for them.
 

Xplosive

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Who cares, if Booker really is the best player on the board and a definite position of need, take him. Maybe if they really do target him, it's in a trade down so we can get the trade down clowns rolling for Ommy
I see no way that Booker can be the best player available at a position of need with the #10 pick. This teams needs LT, DE, DT, LG, RG, C, TE, RB, FS and I've seen no one list Booker as a top 10 overall pick prior to Jeremiah (he's #67 on PFF). I don't know if this is just to get us talking or some kind of favor to Alabama by drumming up interest in one of their players.
 

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Possibilities yes. If the Falcons want to come up they can go a couple spots higher, though.

SEA probably, but I doubt Poles will want to drop down that far. Limited top end talent this year.

To me there just isn't much to really drive a trade down in the first round this year. "Win now mode" probably means adding 2 impact players rather than 1, for teams with pretty obvious weaknesses like ATL and SEA. ATL also has only 4 total picks and no 3rd. Seems like that would be a huge gamble for them.
Seattle would probably love to add Jeanty or the #1 OT on their board if he is there.
Falcons could want defensive help. I have seen mocks where Mason Graham or Will Johnson drop to #10. The Bears would smart to trade down and pick up another 2nd or 3rd rounder to help fill out this roster.
 

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If Mason Graham is available the Bears should absolutely draft him.

Like I said, anything is possible but I don't find it probable at all.
 

Butkus34

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I see no way that Booker can be the best player available at a position of need with the #10 pick. This teams needs LT, DE, DT, LG, RG, C, TE, RB, FS and I've seen no one list Booker as a top 10 overall pick prior to Jeremiah (he's #67 on PFF). I don't know if this is just to get us talking or some kind of favor to Alabama by drumming up interest in one of their players.
Agreed, I think it's more talking point and to be different than others
 

Nelly

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Looking back through the last so many drafts and there's a lot of them where the first guard goes off the board in the 10-15 range.
 

DefNextYear

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you think Booker is a 2nd rounder?

Seems like quite the departure from this mock draft.
We'll see after the combine I guess, but no guards have been taken in the 1st round the last 2 years and Booker isn't notably better than any of those guys. It kind of is a shitty draft, so maybe he sneaks up; however, he's pretty universally a late 1st at best right now. Scouting reports don't really scream top 10 pick. I rather try to move to like 23 to take him at this point in time, if that's who I want. It's otherwise flushing a 2nd round pick down the toilet. Again... subject to change if he dominates the underwear Olympics, but he'd need to get into Nelson territory to warrant a No. 10 overall pick. Here's a bunch of random reports thus far:

 

bamainatlanta

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Booker aint going top 10. If they go OG in the 1st then trade down considerably.
None of these OG's are "generational" like Zach Martin was.
 

Les Grossman

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We'll see after the combine I guess, but no guards have been taken in the 1st round the last 2 years and Booker isn't notably better than any of those guys. It kind of is a shitty draft, so maybe he sneaks up; however, he's pretty universally a late 1st at best right now. Scouting reports don't really scream top 10 pick. I rather try to move to like 23 to take him at this point in time, if that's who I want. It's otherwise flushing a 2nd round pick down the toilet. Again... subject to change if he dominates the underwear Olympics, but he'd need to get into Nelson territory to warrant a No. 10 overall pick. Here's a bunch of random reports thus far:

Seems about right.

I don't usually brush up this early on draft prospects. What's funny is that I have noticed that many of the OT drafted get switched of OG anyway.
 

bearsfan1977

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Booker aint going top 10. If they go OG in the 1st then trade down considerably.
None of these OG's are "generational" like Zach Martin was.
That’s what I’ve been saying about taking a G at 10. But so many people on here would be thrilled with say, Campbell at 10. A guy who projects inside at G. A position, coincidentally, he has never played. But in the eyes of many, that would be a home run pick.

I think DL or DE will be BPA, and both are also huge positions of need.
 

DefNextYear

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Seems about right.

I don't usually brush up this early on draft prospects. What's funny is that I have noticed that many of the OT drafted get switched of OG anyway.
Yup, exactly... that's why I was thinking at minimum, I'd take Banks (who reportedly might have shorter arms) and see if he can work at LT. If he doesn't, he'll be a fine guard. Same goes for Campbell if he's still on the board.
 

bearsfan1977

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Yup, exactly... that's why I was thinking at minimum, I'd take Banks (who reportedly might have shorter arms) and see if he can work at LT. If he doesn't, he'll be a fine guard. Same goes for Campbell if he's still on the board.
Josh Simmons is the LT. He had the best tape at that position pre-injury. Conerly has been talked about a lot. I hear his anchor is weak though. Not sure if that’s true-I don’t know that much about him other than that.
 
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