I just look at the resources teams in position to trade actually have, as well as their needs.
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Very few teams in the teens have ample resources, and most have needs where giving up a second rounder would really hamper them. Several have only four or five total picks and or no second or third rounder. These are also teams that are mostly just outside the playoffs and aspiring to them, but have several big holes.
I think people also tend to under estimate the difference in most GM's perception of quality talent from 10 to 20, especially this year where it drops fast.
All this is to say that I think a trade down is unlikely.