Does Theo Epstein Even Have a Clue?

[beckdawg]

Eh, you dont know any of that. You dont know what another GM could have done. He spent 4 years 52 mill on Jackson but wouldnt sign a cleanup hitter. Theo isnt as bad as people say but he hasnt shown any type of Billy Beanesque things here. Oh and btw Boston wanted Bean before Theo. If Beane take the Boston job, the baseball world probably doesnt know Theo. I am not bashing just facts. Beane has done more than any other GM with less.

So because Theo isn't the best in the majors(Beane) he's bad? I didn't say he was the best. I said there probably aren't many who could have done better given the situation. As for not knowing any of it, why would any GM choose to lower their payroll $25 mil? There's literally no reason for him to have done that unless it was forced by the owners. Whether or not he spent every penny we'll never know. But what reason do we have to believe otherwise?

Now whether or not someone could have done better, I'll agree that's impossible to say. But, I highly doubt many GMs would improve a team when they have $25 mil less than the previous year and had no impact players from the minors come up. As I said before, if he turns over the roster into essentially a 71 win team he inherited in 2012 in 3 years given the resources he apparently has had I don't see how anyone can say that's not impressive. Don't get me wrong, he's made mistakes but what GM hasn't?

I guess what i'm saying is there wasn't an obvious solution to this problem. It's easy to criticize the moves that were made but what was the fool proof solution here if you're not spending $160-170 mil/season? If Theo had drafted terribly or made terrible trades I can see getting on him. However, his bad trades have been mostly player dumps(Colvin and Lamatheu for Stewart, Marmol for whomever that reliever they got was, Zambrano for Volstad...etc). For the most part the things they have actually done were decent.

One more thing, they probably aren't a 70ish win team right now. They seemingly need another bat or two. It'd also help if Arrieta is better than Villenueva. But, if they aren't utter shit over the next month they should get 1 or 2 guys from the minors to help.

 

[Mongo_76]

For the first time in 50 years the Cubs have real depth of talent in the farm system. Theo is planting seeds instead of shopping for far more expensive, fully grown plants with little time left to live.

First time in 50 years????

Sad how little people know. It's fun to just spew crap and see who believes it though...

The Cubs have "prospects" in the farm. Nothing about any of them is proven or guaranteed. And the reason we have a few kids who got picked earlier in the draft is because this wonderful GM thought it'd be cool with a bunch of blister lipper fans to put together some of the worst seasons in team history.

People who think throwing away seasons for a "maybe prospect" are dumb asses.

 

[Mongo_76]

Having to slash payroll $25 mil in year 1, I'm not sure many GM's could do a better job.

Wait... So you think he was "forced" to make this team a bottom dweller?

What in the living hell is wrong with some of you?

 

[Mongo_76]

why would any GM choose to lower their payroll $25 mil? There's literally no reason for him to have done that unless it was forced by the owners.

Theo has never swayed from saying that the way he intends to build this farm team is by taking some chances on early picks in the draft.

The only way he could guarantee early picks was to tank seasons.

This was his choice.

 

[brett05]

For the first time in 50 years the Cubs have real depth of talent in the farm system. {/quote]
Wait a moment. Wasn't the farm ranked #1 at one point under Hendry with guys like Hill, Patterson, etc?

Ignorant people think it is better to win 72 than 69. It isn't.

come on now, 69 is a stretch for a team that went a whole month with zero series wins.

 

[Jntg4]

come on now, 69 is a stretch for a team that went a whole month with zero series wins.

The Cubs have been 69'ed for the past 106 years now

 

[brett05]

The Cubs have been 69'ed for the past 106 years now

you should check out the baseball thread mrubio started. It's actually the best thread of 2014 for me at least.

 

[MRubio52]

People who think throwing away seasons for a "maybe prospect" are dumb asses.

Strong disagree here. There are articles out there that display the average value of draft picks. Falls off fast after pick #8 iirc. And the average WAR of a 1st pick overall is substantially higher than others.

There are always exceptions but scouting and development now are much, much better. Ditto eval. Having a high first rounder is really important given the current CBA construction.


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[diavolos]

SERIOUSLY??

You are using "I'm at work" as an excuse for having the very basis of your criticism of Theo 100% incorrect???

You have just exposed yourself as knowing absolutely nothing about the very situation you are commenting on!!

BearFan51 must be bored waiting for the draft to come over here and ask such a ridiculously stupid question.

For the first time in 50 years the Cubs have real depth of talent in the farm system. Theo is planting seeds instead of shopping for far more expensive, fully grown plants with little time left to live.

People IN the business all agree he is doing it right and the Cubs will be a force to be reckoned with. But fans can't stomach that.

Ignorant people think it is better to win 72 than 69. It isn't.


But seriously.....in case I state things that are 100% off base and completely opposite of the facts, I will be sure to say "I am at work".

WOW!!

i admitted i was wrong about schilling and mueller. it's your right, so go ahead and crucify me. it's the internet after all, and any perceived weakness should be exploited by keyboard warriors. i'm totally cool with it. crucify away dude.

the point i was trying to make still stands, even though i admittedly botched the details. theo had almost unlimited resources and he also inherited an already veteran-laden and good team. here's the 2002 roster..

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2002.shtml

here's the 2003 roster...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2003.shtml

here's the 2004 roster...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2004.shtml

some more questions for you though....how many times in the past decades have "experts" predicted a stocked farm system? and what good did it do the cubs?

is it really better to win only three more games?

seriously, your argument is that teams should suck on purpose until they strike gold with all the picks? this is my biggest problem with the organization and the fans: loser mentality. of which you, in your post, show plenty.

 

[Mongo_76]

Strong disagree here. There are articles out there that display the average value of draft picks.

Picks have ZERO WAR value unless they pan out. Why can't people see this?


The article you are referring to was written by Sky Andrecheck in 2009.

He VERY VERY clearly states that the relationship between WAR and the draft order pick is purely "expected" and not absolute.

He also specifically says:

Each team of course has high hopes for the players they draft - hopes that often go unrealized.

 

[Mongo_76]

Having a high first rounder is really important given the current CBA construction.

No... Having really skilled players is really important to winning.

We don't have many, hence, we are losing.

Losing sucks. Trying to win but losing anyways sucks more. Trying to lose in a sport where the goal is to win is the absolute most pathetic.

 

[MRubio52]

No... Having really skilled players is really important to winning.

We don't have many, hence, we are losing.

Losing sucks. Trying to win but losing anyways sucks more. Trying to lose in a sport where the goal is to win is the absolute most pathetic.

You get skilled players in the draft.

Expected return is still what the thinking is regarding tanking for draft picks.

This isn't so much about the results. I think time has born out the results that smart franchises making good picks turn things around.

This is purely about process. You don't like the process. I only care about player skills an scouting so I really don't care.

But again, the presumption that thousands of hours of scouting work, the hours of development etc are all "lotto tickets" is really not going to fly.

There's a lot of work being poured into the scouting and development of these prospects. It's not just guesswork.


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[MRubio52]

Again, good players just do not show up from the ether to be picked up for free. There's a system for evaluating talent and developing said talent.

This is not a simplistic process as much as you want it to be.


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[Mongo_76]

Again, good players just do not show up from the ether to be picked up for free.

Free? No. Free agents? Yes.

There's a system for evaluating talent and developing said talent.

Of course there is. And that system often fails. More often than not it fails.

This is not a simplistic process as much as you want it to be.

Out of curiosity, what happened to the 2 year plan? The" process" you speak of seems to be taking a lot longer than expected. i remember when all the blister lippers were telling me we'd be competing for the division in 2013. Yet when I look at the standings, we still haev the fewest wins in baseball.


And still, no guarantees - just "prospects" and a lot of "trust me's" and "it's a process". I remember when Theo said "Every opportunity to win is precious"... What happened?

You don't have to answer any of the above. The important question is how many losses, how many losing seasons, how long will it take before people finally see that boy blunder might not be the savior?

 

[Mongo_76]

You get skilled players in the draft.

No you don't. You get potentially skilled players.

This isn't so much about the results.

What the f_ck are you smoking?

 

[Mongo_76]

But again, the presumption that thousands of hours of scouting work, the hours of development etc are all "lotto tickets" is really not going to fly.

And yet, Baez is hitting .172

 

[diavolos]

There's a lot of work being poured into the scouting and development of these prospects. It's not just guesswork.

i don't think anyone is saying it's guesswork. i think what people are saying is that it's one thing to evaluate and draft, but another to see those guys become productive major leaguers. sure, we can talk about the war of first round picks versus the war of picks in rounds 2 or later. and statistically speaking, there is a case for first-round war and picks being higher, and statistically speaking the higher you get, the better your war in theory should be.

but that doesn't mean that kris bryant, for instance, is going to be a productive major leaguer. seems foolish to me and others to bank so much on prospects that haven't seen one pitch in the major leagues. and when i say foolish, i really mean "loser mentality". it's loser mentality to purposefully tank waiting for prospects. it's loser mentality to not spend money on your major league team. if draft picks supposedly did it, then the royals in theory should be winning the world series any day now.

 

[SilenceS]

And yet, Baez is hitting .172

In 50 something at bats which he did the exact same thing last year. How that turn out for him?

 

[MRubio52]

And yet, Baez is hitting .172

He's going to be fine. It hasn't been one full season of this. He started slow last year as well and ended up hitting 40 bombs.


Out of curiosity what scouting or player eval are you guys pulling from to form opinions?


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[SilenceS]

i don't think anyone is saying it's guesswork. i think what people are saying is that it's one thing to evaluate and draft, but another to see those guys become productive major leaguers. sure, we can talk about the war of first round picks versus the war of picks in rounds 2 or later. and statistically speaking, there is a case for first-round war and picks being higher, and statistically speaking the higher you get, the better your war in theory should be.

but that doesn't mean that kris bryant, for instance, is going to be a productive major leaguer. seems foolish to me and others to bank so much on prospects that haven't seen one pitch in the major leagues. and when i say foolish, i really mean "loser mentality". it's loser mentality to purposefully tank waiting for prospects. it's loser mentality to not spend money on your major league team. if draft picks supposedly did it, then the royals in theory should be winning the world series any day now.

So, why are you complaining about not spending money on a message board? Shouldnt you write a stern letter to Ricketts. Its hit pocket book that isnt allowing spending.