Just post it all. Everyone does.
It's official:
NFL draft season is here. As the
2022 NFL season hits the stretch run and college football turns its attention to
bowls and the
College Football Playoff, intrigue will start to grow around a talented
2023 draft class.
With the first round set to begin nearly five months from now -- April 27 in Kansas City -- plenty can change. The
draft order, for one, won't be fully set until mid-February. Most players entering the draft still have at least one game to play, along with all-star events, combine and pro day workouts and tons of pre-draft interviews. But we are at least starting to get some clarity on this group of prospects, which is led by two elite defenders and a pair of
franchise quarterbacks.
We brought in our NFL draft experts -- Mel Kiper Jr., Todd McShay, Matt Miller and Jordan Reid -- to answer 30 big questions about the class at this point in the process. Who will be the No. 1 pick -- and which team will have it? What will the Eagles, Lions, Seahawks and Texans do with multiple first-rounders? Which quarterbacks, receivers, edge rushers and cornerbacks have
first-round upside, and who are potential late-round sleepers? What are the best pro comps in the class, and which prospects will post eye-popping numbers at the combine?
Let's start to prep for the draft, beginning with a look at the quarterback class.
Let's talk through this quarterback class: How many have Round 1 grades right now?
McShay: Three, and I don't think it will change. In some order, it will be Alabama's
Bryce Young, Ohio State's
C.J. Stroud and Kentucky's
Will Levis. I have Young as the
QB1 right now, thanks to excellent poise under duress and the arm flexibility to make off-platform throws. His size (6-foot, 194 pounds) and durability might be issues for some teams, but I think Young is a special prospect who is capable of transforming a franchise.
Stroud has fast eyes and excellent touch, timing and placement to all three levels of the field. But his efficiency dips a bit when pressured, and he's at his best working within the confines of a structured offense. Levis has the strongest arm and the sturdiest build (6-foot-3, 232 pounds) of these three quarterbacks, though he needs to improve his pocket presence and turnover avoidance (10 interceptions).
And Young is the favorite to go No. 1 overall?
Reid: I believe so. Similar to
Kyler Murray in 2019, his size will be talked about endlessly all the way up until draft day, but Young has everything else it takes to be a high-level starting quarterback in the NFL. He's the complete package. Alabama wasn't as talented on the perimeter this season, but Young still found ways to win games each week, throwing 27 touchdown passes and turning in a 83.7 Total QBR. He will get one more test with Kansas State in the
Allstate Sugar Bowl.
What does Stroud do best?
Kiper: Throw with touch to all levels of the field. Look at the ball placement on
this 42-yard touchdown pass. Stroud executes the Buckeyes' offense to perfection, and he's so smooth in the pocket. He doesn't have elite arm strength, but he's going to improve there as he grows into his 6-foot-3 frame.
play
0:31
Ohio State comes right back with a Marvin Harrison Jr. TD
C.J. Stroud lofts one to Marvin Harrison Jr. for the 42-yard touchdown late in the second quarter.
I have very similar grades on all three of these quarterbacks, and Stroud will get a showcase against the best of the best as Ohio State takes on Georgia in the
College Football Playoff semifinals. That means potentially two more games of tape against high-level opponents.
What are you hearing about how the NFL sees Levis?
Miller: NFL evaluators love the traits here. After all, toolsy quarterbacks such as
Patrick Mahomes,
Josh Allen and
Justin Herbert are among the elites in the game, and every team wants to find the next future star. Levis has arm talent that puts him in that group and the physical traits to run around -- or over -- defenders.
Scouts I've talked to love Levis' traits and believe his pre-draft interviews will convince teams that he's a future franchise quarterback , despite the decision-making issues that must improve. A big test awaits with Iowa in the
TransPerfect Music City Bowl, if he opts to play after
deciding to enter the draft.
OK, and where is the recently injured Hendon Hooker in all of this? Will the Tennessee QB's stock drop?
McShay: I still see Hooker as the QB4 in the class. The 6-foot-4 senior suffered a
torn ACL in his left knee in November, and while the injury will certainly impact his draft stock, I don't think we will see a severe drop. Hooker was a Day 2 prospect for me even before the injury, and I still think that's when he will get drafted -- just a little bit later on Friday night than previously thought. Hooker reads the field really well, has a nice smooth delivery and knows how to layer the ball to receivers to set up yards after the catch. He only threw two interceptions this year while piling up 3,135 yards and 27 TD passes.
Who's the wild-card QB in this class?
Reid: This is an easy one. Florida's
Anthony Richardson struggled in his only season as a full-time starter, but the potential is off the charts. At 6-4 and 232 pounds, he has a powerful arm to complement his ability as a runner, but he's still very raw and inconsistent. Richardson -- who recently
declared for the draft -- completed just 53.8% of his throws this season, while posting 26 total touchdowns (17 passing, nine rushing) and nine interceptions.
He'll be the ultimate project prospect. But while he is still developing a lot of the key ingredients it takes to be successful at the next level, there's no questioning his traits and upside. His accuracy, decision-making and consistency have to get better, and a good landing spot is vital for long-term success.
Who are the other signal-callers to know?
Kiper: How much space do I have here? It's a really fun group, even though
Michael Penix Jr. -- who was my QB4 -- is
returning to Washington for another season.
Max Duggan (TCU) and
Bo Nix (Oregon) are two of the most improved signal-callers in the country, and I could see teams taking chances on them early on Day 3.
Jake Haener (Fresno State), who completed a whopping 72.6% of his passes this season, wears No. 9 and looks a little bit like Drew Brees when he's dicing up defenses from the pocket.
Jaren Hall (BYU) has thrown 51 touchdown passes and just 11 picks over the last two seasons. And
Jayden Daniels (LSU) is a dual-threat quarterback who has taken a step forward as a thrower since transferring from Arizona State.
One more to watch on Day 3:
Tyson Bagent, a 6-foot-3 passer from Division II Shepherd, where he just set the record for most career touchdown passes in any college division. He can spin it.
Which teams likely picking in the top 10 could go with a QB?
Miller: The Texans, Panthers, Lions and Colts all feel like locks to strongly consider quarterbacks via the draft. Then the Seahawks -- who have Denver's selection -- could look that way, depending on what they decide with
Geno Smith after his huge season. The Falcons could also go back to the QB well, despite drafting
Desmond Ridder on Day 2 in April. And there's always a wild card in the mix -- keep an eye on the Cardinals and Raiders.
I recently talked with a general manager who expects a third of the league to make a change or key addition at quarterback during the offseason.
Sounds like we'll see a lot of QBs. Is it the deepest position in this class?
McShay: I actually think its edge rusher. Alabama's
Will Anderson Jr. is my No. 1 overall prospect and headlines a strong group of early-rounders. In all, I have 12 edge rushers in
my top 50, and 20 have a 70-plus grade at the moment. Here's a few to know:
- 3-4 outside linebacker: Anderson, Nolan Smith (Georgia), BJ Ojulari (LSU), Andre Carter II (Army), Zion Tupuola-Fetui (Washington)
- 4-3 defensive end: Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech), Lukas Van Ness (Iowa), Jared Verse (Florida State), Isaiah Foskey (Notre Dame), Zach Harrison (Ohio State), Derick Hall (Auburn)
- Versatile defensive end who can reduce inside on obvious passing downs: Myles Murphy (Clemson), Mike Morris (Michigan), Byron Young (Tennessee), Tuli Tuipulotu (USC)
Is Anderson the clear best non-quarterback in this class?
Kiper: It's going to come down to Anderson vs. Georgia defensive tackle
Jalen Carter, just like
we predicted last May. Anderson, who has 56 tackles for loss and 27.5 sacks over the past two seasons, gives offensive tackles nightmares because of his get-off speed and ability to wreck plays. But Carter has rare physical traits for an interior pass-rusher, with quickness and power to blow up interior linemen.
As for which defender goes first off the board, it'll
come down to team fit. Anderson is
atop most boards right now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Carter go to the first team that needs a defensive player. You might be surprised by my Big Board on Thursday.
play
0:21
Pick-six! Will Anderson takes it to the house for Bama TD
Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. returns interception 25 yards to the house.
Of the teams projected to pick high, where is Carter's best fit?
Miller: I love his fit with the Seahawks, currently projected to have the Broncos' No. 4 pick via
ESPN's Football Power Index. That's a team desperate for help on the interior of the defensive line, and Carter is a plug-and-play 3-technique starter. Yes, there were the
knee/ankle injuries this season, but Carter has looked like one of the best overall players in this class since returning. And in the NFC West, he'd be facing Kyler Murray and
Trey Lance, two QBs not known for their ability to hang in the pocket and throw on time. An interior pass-rusher is key for those situations, and Seattle could then use its other first-rounder to address another need.
Are there other defensive linemen who could go in the top half of Round 1?
McShay: Texas Tech's Wilson and Clemson's Murphy should be top-15 picks, and Clemson defensive tackle
Bryan Bresee is likely to join them. All three are currently ranked in my top 10.
At 6-6 and 275 pounds, Wilson has outstanding length and finishing strength, compiling seven sacks and 15 tackles for loss for a second straight year. Murphy has a similar frame (6-5, 275 pounds) and displays a quick first step and impressive bend, helping him to 6.5 sacks and 12 tackles for loss in 2022. Bresee, meanwhile, is a 6-5, 305-pound defensive tackle who has more upside than his Tigers teammate. He's a dominant run defender, thanks to great upper-body strength and quick hands.
Jordan, you were all over Wilson in the preseason. Who's your comp for him?
Reid: Wilson's game reminds me a lot of Packers defensive end
Preston Smith. Both are towering edge rushers with unique size, length and power. And similar to Smith, Wilson has the versatility to rush from the edge or kick inside, allowing defensive coordinators to create advantageous situations against interior blockers on obvious passing downs. Wilson -- who is my No. 6 prospect and already
declared for the draft -- is a little raw and still developing, but the upside is immense.
Who are the sleeper pass-rushers to keep a close eye on?
Kiper: You want sleepers, I have sleepers.
Thomas Incoom (Central Michigan) had an incredibly productive season, with 11.5 sacks and 19 total tackles for loss, and
Jose Ramirez (Eastern Michigan) put up 12 sacks. Both have the tools NFL teams look for in pass-rushers late on Day 2 or early on Day 3. But I also want to mention
Viliami Fehoko (San Jose State), who had 23 sacks over the past three seasons, including 10 in 2022. He has the versatility to play inside or on the edge, which ups his value in the NFL.
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