Fowler to recieve qualifying offer

[CSF77]

IMO them signing a guy like Kaz is more likely than them getting into a bidding war over Price.

Sure he is on every ones radar. That is why he will cost over 200 mil.

 

[CSF77]

Early predictions have Price to the Cubs at 6 at 185. 31 per. Basically leaving cash on the table to find a team that matches.

All he said heading in right direction and has fun doing it. Basically what has been happening already.

I would be shocked if it happens.

 

[CSF77]

Also Cueto to Dodgers. 200 mil. Grenke to Red Sox. Grenke is having a historic season and will cash in vs sit on 77 mil.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Early predictions have Price to the Cubs at 6 at 185. 31 per. Basically leaving cash on the table to find a team that matches.

All he said heading in right direction and has fun doing it. Basically what has been happening already.

I would be shocked if it happens.

Everything I've heard is that Price will go for more than Scherzer money with Greinke and Cueto not far behind. Jeff Samardzija has had the August from hell and people still say he's getting $100 mil. The money is supposed to be crazy this year. I don't know why a guy like Price would leave money in the table but hell who knows? Stranger things have happened.

 

[CSF77]

Just 1 prediction. Price was quoted that he wants on a team heading in the right direction and a fun environment.

The cash will be there. The issue is if he leaves some on the table for a ideal situation or not.

Still that is 30 mil per year. By no means is that not a good offer.

 

[CSF77]

100 mil is fair value for a #3 with low mileage on his arm. He is MR and his strongest point is durability. Teams pay for quality innings

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Yeah this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Fire is hot, birds chirp, cows moo.

Someone is going to give him Michael Bourne money and while he's great, he's not worth that. Lots of teams in need of a guy like him. He will have a market. Maybe not elite like a lot of pitchers, but he'll have takers.

Free draft pick is good, and what Theo is going for.

Again, if you're surprised by common sense, then you'll fit right in with the other meatballs on the board.

 

[DanTown]

I don't understand how Fowler is good enough for teams to give up a first round pick for yet he's not good enough for the Cubs to keep. I guess the question is this: do you want to replace the lead-off man or do you want to replace the CF? I think there a few guys who may be had for half the money that Fowler makes who would be slight upgrades on in the field that wouldn't be bad bottom of the order guys (Jackson) but I don't get the "let's keep building forward" idea of the team yet jettison a completely competent and high value lead-off guy. If you can get him to take a short term deal (3 years or less), I think they have to do it. Longer than that, I'm not sure Ricketts can/want to pay that much for Fowler with two high quality potential CF in the system (McKinney and Almora) about two years away.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I don't understand how Fowler is good enough for teams to give up a first round pick for yet he's not good enough for the Cubs to keep. I guess the question is this: do you want to replace the lead-off man or do you want to replace the CF? I think there a few guys who may be had for half the money that Fowler makes who would be slight upgrades on in the field that wouldn't be bad bottom of the order guys (Jackson) but I don't get the "let's keep building forward" idea of the team yet jettison a completely competent and high value lead-off guy. If you can get him to take a short term deal (3 years or less), I think they have to do it. Longer than that, I'm not sure Ricketts can/want to pay that much for Fowler with two high quality potential CF in the system (McKinney and Almora) about two years away.

Fowler isn't going to take a 3 year deal. Unfortunately for the Cubs someone is likely to offer him a 4-5 year contract somewhere between $65-$90 mil depending on who you listen to. I think the Cubs would have to give a long think to 4/$60 mil if they think he would take it. Beyond that you have to let him go. Austin Jackson is here in part because they want to get a good look at him as a possible replacement. We've discussed other options here as well including Denard Span who would likely take a 1 year value rebuilding deal. He was expecting to get paid $100 mil or more and he got hurt. Of course you'd have to be reasonably sure of his medicals and he would be just starting physical activities after hip surgery as ST opens. A risk but a good one at the right price. You need a bridge to Almora or maybe Happ unless they convert the latter to 2B. McKinney is almost certainly a corner OF not a CF candidate. This one of the biggest decisions of the offseason for this team.

 

[DanTown]

Fowler isn't going to take a 3 year deal. Unfortunately for the Cubs someone is likely to offer him a 4-5 year contract somewhere between $65-$90 mil depending on who you listen to. I think the Cubs would have to give a long think to 4/$60 mil if they think he would take it. Beyond that you have to let him go. Austin Jackson is here in part because they want to get a good look at him as a possible replacement. We've discussed other options here as well including Denard Span who would likely take a 1 year value rebuilding deal. He was expecting to get paid $100 mil or more and he got hurt. Of course you'd have to be reasonably sure of his medicals and he would be just starting physical activities after hip surgery as ST opens. A risk but a good one at the right price. You need a bridge to Almora or maybe Happ unless they convert the latter to 2B. McKinney is almost certainly a corner OF not a CF candidate. This one of the biggest decisions of the offseason for this team.

The question about having Fowler leave isn't so much finding a CF because the Cubs can find a guy to play there via FA (Jackson, Span) but then both guys have legit concerns. Jackson is a guy who is known to go on deep slumps and Span and Soler as an OF duo leaves you with two high injury potential guys.

And more so than losing a CF, the Cubs really don't have a guy who projects to be a decent lead-off replacement unless you want to do something drastic like bat a guy like Schwarber there, I'm not sure how you replicate how well Fowler gets on base. Obviously his second half isn't sustainable but he's below his career BABIP and he's a guy who is valuable to setting the table for this offense. You can't have an elite offense and just hope that guys get on base at the top.

If you're going to argue about the bigger "need" for this team, Fowler or Monetro at incredibly similar salaries, I'd argue Fowler.

 

[brett05]

What does Fowler give you for $18 million? I asked a guy I work with what's the difference between Fowler and Eaton outside of Age. Without checking stats, we agreed none. We also couldn't see paying anywhere near $18 million for Fowler per year even on a short term deal. Neither one of us though a Qualifying offer was prudent.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

What does Fowler give you for $18 million? I asked a guy I work with what's the difference between Fowler and Eaton outside of Age. Without checking stats, we agreed none. We also couldn't see paying anywhere near $18 million for Fowler per year even on a short term deal. Neither one of us though a Qualifying offer was prudent.

Interesting comparison. The stats are nearly identical this year and career wise. Still someone is going to make a big long term offer to Fowler and he knows it. Why not offer the QO? He won't take it.

 

[brett05]

Interesting comparison. The stats are nearly identical this year and career wise. Still someone is going to make a big long term offer to Fowler and he knows it. Why not offer the QO? He won't take it.

If he doesn't take it I can't see anyone losing their pick for Fowler. I think he might take it. I'm not sure that the market is there for Fowler. Who knows, maybe it is. That's his agent to figure out, and fast.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If he doesn't take it I can't see anyone losing their pick for Fowler. I think he might take it. I'm not sure that the market is there for Fowler. Who knows, maybe it is. That's his agent to figure out, and fast.

No player has ever taken a QO as far as I know. I'm hearing the market for Fowler is 4 years/$75 million bare minimum. I had thought a lot less than that myself but conventional wisdom says otherwise.

 

[DanTown]

What does Fowler give you for $18 million? I asked a guy I work with what's the difference between Fowler and Eaton outside of Age. Without checking stats, we agreed none. We also couldn't see paying anywhere near $18 million for Fowler per year even on a short term deal. Neither one of us though a Qualifying offer was prudent.

Fowler's value

1. Ability to take and see pitches to get on base
2. Reliability with health
3. Fairly decent power to turn the lineup over

I can't imagine he's a 18 million/yr guy because why wouldn't you just pay the extra money and get a Heyward? It's almost like this myth of Fowler's value is being used to talk about replacing him. Of course if he costs in that 5/90 - 4/80 range you let him walk but that's more APY than every OF last year not named Hanley Ramirez and we saw how that worked out.

 

[beckdawg]

What does Fowler give you for $18 million? I asked a guy I work with what's the difference between Fowler and Eaton outside of Age. Without checking stats, we agreed none. We also couldn't see paying anywhere near $18 million for Fowler per year even on a short term deal. Neither one of us though a Qualifying offer was prudent.

We're talking about a false equivalence here though. For one, Eaton is obviously younger and on his rookie deal. But if we're seriously having this conversation, Fowler has shown considerably more power. He's been a 15ish HR guy over a full season. Admittedly, Fowler has a lot of injuries that set that back some. Eaton has 16 career HRs in 1480 PAs or roughly 2+ years. Fowler is also a not insignificant 20ish points higher in OBP over his career.

But largely aside from that the point here is it's not a matter of Eaton or Fowler. It's a matter of Fowler and what few choices you have in FA. The fact of the matter is most FA's are bad investments when compared players who either are on rookie deals or were signed while still under team control. So, you can suggest Fowler isn't worth $18 mil/year but really if you're a team who has nothing at CF which could be any number of teams, you don't have a ton of choices.

Edit: Just to further my point above these teams have CF with less than 2 fWAR right now
Braves, Marlins, Mets, Nats, Indians, Tigers, Twins, Brewers, Cardinals, Astros, A's, Mariners, Rangers, Giants and Padres.

 

[CSF77]

He is worth 4/60 mil. I wouldn't go over that

 

[CSF77]

That said I believe he would take the years vs a 1 year at 18 mil. You never know if he ends up injured or in a season long slump that kills his value.

Theo knows that this is a sell high year for him. So he is going after a free pick. Teams that need what he brings will give up the pick. Teams that won't give up a pick just won't in general. Don't matter on who they need.

Look at Theo. never gives up picks and still gets deals done.

The real question is what will they do for a lead off in 2016. Fowler most likely will walk. The next lead off in the tank is Happ and he is 2 years out.

Now I would lead off with LaStella at 2B and convert Baez to CF. vs LH starters move Baez back to 2B and have Szczur man CF.

It would be a temp fix until Happ and Almora become the long term answers.

 

[HEY!HEY!]

Hopefully he rejects the offer. 16mm is too much for Fowler. AJax could be had for less. Better yet, perhaps Jackie Bradley Jr could be pried from the Bosox. With Schwarbs in LF we need a go getter in center.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Hopefully he rejects the offer. 16mm is too much for Fowler. AJax could be had for less. Better yet, perhaps Jackie Bradley Jr could be pried from the Bosox. With Schwarbs in LF we need a go getter in center.

He won't take the offer, somebody is going to pay him a lot more than that per year in a 4 or 5 year deal. As a Cubs fan though you should hope he does. He'd be one year bridge to Albert Almora which is what they need.