Fowler to recieve qualifying offer

[beckdawg]

Wrong. His D value has been 4.3 Fowler: 1.3. Soler: -11.4. Schwarber: -2.7 (Catcher I believe is messing this one up)


He has been the "best OF"

So wrong.

Defense presuming you're talking fangraphs is position relative. In other words, that number is comparing him to other LF not OF as a whole. When Cogs has played CF with the marlins his UZR/150 was -15.2 over 800 or so innings. You don't really want him playing CF.

 

[CSF77]

Defense presuming you're talking fangraphs is position relative. In other words, that number is comparing him to other LF not OF as a whole. When Cogs has played CF with the marlins his UZR/150 was -15.2 over 800 or so innings. You don't really want him playing CF.

I was looking at that also. Cogs hasn't played CF sense 2013. That year he put up a -17.9 CF in 150 innings. LF -9.6 RF: -35.4. Over all -16.3 OF. This year: LF: 17.8. RF: 10.9 so not even the same guy.

To give common ground Soler in RF: -14.0 I think it shows that a guy can vastly improve. But it also shows that Coglands D is a positive value this year and the view points are unjustified.

Just as another point Fowlers UZR150 is -1.3. So again a dislike value.

Again I see little info to back a opinion that Coghlans is a liability. If anything it points towards an improvement at all 3 OF positions.

Here is the thing. I believe Coghland is a starter on this team. I believe he could start in CF and hold the fort down with out losing much. His OBA is at .341 with a .282 BABIP VS Fowler's .349 with a .309 BABIP. So a .020 higher luck value with a .006 OBA increase. Kinda points towards a better player potentially.

I think it is a reasonable option. They could even re-up with Denorfia to continue the platoon. His D is better. They are proven. Both have lead off skills and it becomes a reasonably priced option in CF. Not to mention both bring OBA ability.

It is not like it has not worked.

 

[CSF77]

I would rather them invest into a SP. There should be nothing that prevents this.

That said Fowler is worth the Q-offer. Just he is going to get a multi year deal. He has earned that.

But Coghland is vastly under rated. Peeps need to really look at who he is and what he has done. Stop and think that he has equal WAR to Fowler with 200 less AB's. Think about that for a sec.

 

[beckdawg]

Cogs improved mostly because wrigley isn't a giant outfield. Keep in mind he was playing in Joe Robbie which was pretty massive if memory serves. It's the same reason Fowler has improved. You can see this as his range portion of UZR has gone from mostly negatives in the 3 and above range to +4 this year. Either way, I think you're fooling yourself if you think a 30 year old with a history of leg injuries is suddenly going to improve to the point he's passable in CF.

If you knew for sure Almora/Alcantara would not only be ready but be a good player for 2017 then sure I can see the logic behind maybe saving money on a shorter term play. But you can't assume that. Now maybe Fowler takes the choice out of the cubs hands by finding some huge deal else where. If that happens the cubs don't have a ton of options but even then I think you'd be far more likely to see them try to re-sign Jackson who is a decent defender and give him and maybe Alcantara a position battle in ST before giving Cogs a shot there.

 

[CSF77]

Alacantara should have been on the team now. That tells me that he is off their radar.

 

[CSF77]

Jackson: depends. Is he a lead off answer? If so then yes. If too much of a slump type he would be a bad fit as a lead off.

If you are just looking at a plus glove and not a lead off then why not promote Almora early? Little reason not to then.

 

[CSF77]

I believe the end answer for lead off is Happ. Up until then there is no perfect answer

 

[DanTown]

1. Fowler's BABIP is a career low .310 (career before this year was .350). Dexter also is one of the best in the league in seeing a lot of pitches.
2. Coghlan struggled mightily with injuries in Florida/Miami when he was being asked to run and play CF on a regular basis

Almora is a question mark with his bat because of his lack of power or speed and Happ is a giant question mark in terms of what position he'll play in the majors (the Cubs exclusively had him in the OF) so the Cubs aren't going to bank on either of those guys replacing Fowler in the short term.

It makes no sense to let the Cubs only lead-off hitter walk. If you're worried about the money, move Schwarber to C, trade Monetro for something, and then in 2017 you have multiple options of LF/CF. But again, the Cubs best case is Fowler takes the QO and the Cubs have one more year with this group of hitters and then can decide who goes/stays.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

1. Fowler's BABIP is a career low .310 (career before this year was .350). Dexter also is one of the best in the league in seeing a lot of pitches.
2. Coghlan struggled mightily with injuries in Florida/Miami when he was being asked to run and play CF on a regular basis

Almora is a question mark with his bat because of his lack of power or speed and Happ is a giant question mark in terms of what position he'll play in the majors (the Cubs exclusively had him in the OF) so the Cubs aren't going to bank on either of those guys replacing Fowler in the short term.

It makes no sense to let the Cubs only lead-off hitter walk. If you're worried about the money, move Schwarber to C, trade Monetro for something, and then in 2017 you have multiple options of LF/CF. But again, the Cubs best case is Fowler takes the QO and the Cubs have one more year with this group of hitters and then can decide who goes/stays.

He's not going to take the QO though. If I had to put money on it I'd say they sign Austin Jackson to a two dear deal. I wouldn't rule out Denard Span on a one year deal though. Maybe I'll be surprised and they'll sign Fowler, I'd like to see it frankly, but he's probably a corner OF in two years and they won't have room for him. I just don't think they would offer more than say 3/$50 million and I'm sure he'll get a better offer.

 

[Diehardfan]

He's not going to take the QO though. If I had to put money on it I'd say they sign Austin Jackson to a two dear deal. I wouldn't rule out Denard Span on a one year deal though. Maybe I'll be surprised and they'll sign Fowler, I'd like to see it frankly, but he's probably a corner OF in two years and they won't have room for him. I just don't think they would offer more than say 3/$50 million and I'm sure he'll get a better offer.

What makes you think he will take a better offer? Maybe he likes it here. Maybe he wants to be part of baseball history. Maybe he just wants to win. Not everyone can be bought. Besides, who in their right mind could not live comfortably for the rest of their life on $50 million.

 

[CSF77]

The is his last chance to get a pay day. He will take it while his value is high and there is no talent on the market.

It is a perfect storm for him and he should get 4-5 years out of it.

Span is a maybe. He might fit the profile the best.

Jackson would be another but he tends to fall into slumps. You do not want that in a lead off. You want a guy who puts it in play and can work a count.

If you are just looking at it from a hitting point of view. Schwarber. His SO's should drop. BB up around 12-15%. Not much speed but lots of hustle.

That is my pick. Then run Russell 2, Rizzo 3 and Bryant 4, Baez 5.

It would be about high OBA vs speed at the top. And let's be honest speed has lower value now.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

What makes you think he will take a better offer? Maybe he likes it here. Maybe he wants to be part of baseball history. Maybe he just wants to win. Not everyone can be bought. Besides, who in their right mind could not live comfortably for the rest of their life on $50 million.

You never do know. I just don't ever expect someone to leave money on the table. Fit is important but if you were talking a difference of say $25 million and the other team was a contender as well how do you expect a guy to turn down that kind of money? Again I'd like to see him stay, I just wouldn't bet on it.

 

[CSF77]

You never do know. I just don't ever expect someone to leave money on the table. Fit is important but if you were talking a difference of say $25 million and the other team was a contender as well how do you expect a guy to turn down that kind of money? Again I'd like to see him stay, I just wouldn't bet on it.

If we were talking 150 mil to 175 mil I could see him leaving cash on the table. Not 75 mil to 50 mil or less. It is not the same thing at all.