Fowler to recieve qualifying offer

[beckdawg]

16mm is too much for Fowler.

It irks me when people say things like this. Based on what? You're own personal opinion of what players should make? I mean I'm not trying to be a dick here but FA is pretty clear that players make more than they arguably should. For example, Melky Cabrera is making $13, $14, and $15 mil between the 3 years of his deal. He has a career .285/.336/.413 batting line and plays LF not CF. Fowler is a career .268/.363/.421 hitter and while not amazing in CF plays a passible CF. His UZR/150 this year is -1.3 so he's just slightly below average defensively in CF. Now if you're a team with a larger OF you probably view him more as a corner guy in which case sure he's worth less. But that ignores the fact that teams like the cubs have easier CF to play and there just flat out aren't many choices in CF.

On top of that, he's currently worth 3.3 fWAR and probably ends up over 3.6. Going rate for wins in FA's last year was around $7 mil per win. By that value you would expect Fowler to be get a contract near $25 mil. Now I'm almost sure he wont get that much namely because he's really not put in 162 games year to year. But to say Fowler isn't worth $16 mil to me seems crazy. To put his season into perspective, the best season Castro has ever had is a 3.1 fWAR season. I don't mean to single anyone out here but it seems like I've been battling this narrative on Fowler since April. In terms of CF's, he's the 8th highest fWAR. I know some people don't dig on WAR for various reasons but even if you look at more standard numbers, he's tied for 5th in HR's among CF, tied for 9th in steals, and tied for 7th in OBP. In other words, he's been a really good player at a premium position but for whatever reason people just don't like him. Maybe it was the slow start and maybe people don't realize he's been the 11th best hitter in baseball in fWAR in the 2nd half.

Now, if you want to argue that $16 mil for Fowler is better allocated else where then fine. But that's a different argument than him being worth it. Also, I don't know that I agree with that logic either. I think it ignores why the cubs went out and traded for Fowler in the first place. They don't have a lead off hitter without him. For example, if we go with the idea that Jackson is the replacement, Jackson has a .309 OBP this year and had a .308 OBP last year. MLB average is for all hitters is .317. In other words, you don't want him batting lead off. As for Jackie Bradley, I honestly like him and suggested the cubs trade for him in the offseason and then again prior to him getting hot. However, batting him lead off would be risky for a playoff caliber team not to mention you're adding another young high strike out guy(thus far anyways) to the line up which IIRC already leads the majors in k's.

Ultimately, I don't see that the cubs have many options. The reasons they traded for Fowler this season exist just the same. He satisfies a bridge to Almora or whomever the cubs wind up using as a prospect in CF and he's one of the better lead off hitters in the game. So, unless you're replacing him with something similar you're likely getting worse.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Yep. You nailed that one.

I think a lot of people have an idea in their minds what players should cost, they're almost always wrong. Salaries have increased over and over because there is someone to pay them. In the case of Fowler is he worth $16 million to the Cubs? I don't even think that's a question. Not to rehash your argument, which as I said nailed it, but the Cubs have a kid they like in Almora. He is ready defensively and would be an upgrade in that area to Fowler right damn now. That's not even in question. What is in question is his bat which doesn't look ready. The kid has faced adversity in that area several times in the minors and always comes out the other side OK. The Cubs think he's their guy. He's a character first guy like they like and will be cost controlled for a long time. So they will wait for him. In the meantime someone needs to play the position. the Cubs are a good team, Fowler is one of the reasons why. Signing him to 4 year/$70-$75 million deal doesn't make sense, but the $16-$17 million the QO would pay him? That makes a great deal of sense. In the four years where you would be paying Fowler $18 million a year on a long term contract you could be paying the QO for a year and then Almora for about $500K per year for the first 3 years of his MLB service time. There are some slight raises in there so let's call it $1.7 million. So for those 4 years you get Fowler, who you know does what you want for at least right now, for $16 million and then Almora after that for $1.7 million, that's $17.7 million vs. signing Fowler for 4 years $70 million or signing a lesser guy for a little, but not substantially less. In other words the Cubs would do cartwheels if Fowler accepted the QO, which he won't. You have to be careful with the term "worth" supply and demand has everything to do with it.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

People keep saying Almora can replace Fowler in CF in 2017 -- but what do we do in 2016? We have a realistic chance of winning the pennant next year and need a legit CF.

I understand not wanting to pay Fowler $70M -- but who can we have play CF next year at an equally as high level?

 

[CSF77]

They rushed Russell up this year.

Almora would be out there for his glove. Any O would be a bonus.

He was drafted the same year Russell was so I do not get the whole he needs another year thing.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

People keep saying Almora can replace Fowler in CF in 2017 -- but what do we do in 2016? We have a realistic chance of winning the pennant next year and need a legit CF.

I understand not wanting to pay Fowler $70M -- but who can we have play CF next year at an equally as high level?

i think there are two obvious viable options for 2016 and I'm certain the FO has a trade target or two in their sites as well. Austin Jackson is here for them to get a look and see if he can fill the position next year. He's had a couple of down years but has looked to have turned it around lately. He'd be a guy looking to rebuild value and may sign a 1 year deal with an option or a 2 year deal. Either one would work for the Cubs. I think he's a poor man's Fowler, maybe a bit defensively, with a lower OBP but could be a bridge guy. The other option, and this one I hope they explore, is to sign Denard Span to a one year value rebuild deal. He's had two injury plagued years in the last 5 and is coming off of hip surgery. If he had been healthy this year he would be the top money earner of the three real FA CF available with the other two being Fowler and Gerardo Parra. Nobody is going to give Span that long term deal right now. Would a 1 year $10 mil contract with incentives that could take it to say $14 or $15 mil get it done? It might and the Cubs could keep Matt Szczur around for a while to make sure Span isn't overworked early. He projects as being healthy by February. Again the FO may have other guys in mind.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

They rushed Russell up this year.

Almora would be out there for his glove. Any O would be a bonus.

He was drafted the same year Russell was so I do not get the whole he needs another year thing.

Fowler's offense has been a big part of the second half that made this team contender. Almora would be an upgrade defensively but may not be able to stick in the lineup with his bat. If they had to they may rush him like Russell but I think will do everything they can not to. You expect the kids to get better next year but this team still needs to score more runs, why you risk getting worse?

 

[Diehardfan]

Fowler's offense has been a big part of the second half that made this team contender. Almora would be an upgrade defensively but may not be able to stick in the lineup with his bat. If they had to they may rush him like Russell but I think will do everything they can not to. You expect the kids to get better next year but this team still needs to score more runs, why you risk getting worse?

Exactly. Fowler gets OB, has some pop in his bat, can run, lead-off, is a switch hitter and while not great...a decent defender. I can't see Almora matching that resume. It's also a pretty safe bet that Almora will be striking out a bit as he learns on the the job. That's something that is already a problem here. This team is so close to being where they want and of anyone I've seen, Fowler seems to be having the most fun out there....maybe he'll take a two or three year deal if they sweeten the pot.

 

[DanTown]

Dexter Fowler's defense is not great but it's not some negative that is costing the team a ton to have him there. His UZR/150 is just below 0 (next in the league ahead of him is Mike Trout) and when you factor in the bat, you're really not going to replace Dexter. The talk about Almora flies directly in the face of this team trying to win. While we talk about all the young guys, let's compare the young guys final minor league seasons

Bryant: .325/.438/.661 with 43HR
Russell: .295/.350/.508 with 13HR and a K rate of just 17.5% at age 20
Baez: .324/.385/.526 with 13 HR
Schwarber: .323/.430/.591 with 16 HR in just 75 games

Almora: .272/.327.400 with just 6 HR in 106 games

Almora gets lumped in with those guys but his last two years have been no where close to the production of the other "young" guys who've made it to the majors. And I'm not saying Almora can't improve and then be a major league bat; I'm just saying that the idea of letting Fowler walk to one day replace him with a guy who is hitting .272 in AA doesn't sound great to me. Also, look at the guys those guys came in and replaced. Bryant was a massive upgrade over Olt, Russell came in to be the everyday 2B mostly due the LaStella injury and moved to SS because his glove was too good to sit at 2B, Schwarber literally forced the Cubs to change their plans because of his hitting, and Baez (this year) was only a September call-up.

If the Cubs had another true lead-off hitter to replace Fowler with then maybe it'd make more sense. But I don't see why the Cubs can't keep Fowler and then trade either he or Almora in the future if Almora truly is a capable bat/very good glove CF. Why not keep Fowler and then call up the Mets and offer something like Castro+Almora+Villaneuva+young arm for one of their arms? You have made the MLB team better (Baez over Castro is an upgrade due to the defense where as the SP you get is massively better than the Cubs fifth starter this year) and you got value for Almora.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The one thing you have to remember about Almora's season this year as that his second half was much better than his first half due to some adjustments he and the coaching staff implemented in his approach. That's why next year at AAA is so important. Will he stick with those adjustments and also adjust to the increased level of play? That's what they need to know. I'd love for them to sign Fowler and maybe we're all wrong and he wants to stay with the team. I just wouldn't count on that. This guy is about get paid handsomely I would assume he's going to take the best deal and I don't see the Cubs offering him say 4/$75 which is what it's looking like. He'll also be 30 years old next year and if he loses speed in the next couple of years, which is pretty typical, he'll be a corner OF not a CF and his contract will be difficult to move. There's no doubt this is a difficult situation for the Cubs. Maybe they do move on from Almora and make a trade for an MLB CF with some year of control. It'll be interesting to watch.

 

[brett05]

Beckdawg,

Where does this $7 million per WAR come from????

 

[DanTown]

Beckdawg,

Where does this $7 million per WAR come from????

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/10/15/4818740/how-much-does-a-win-really-cost

It's a near-truism of sabermetrics that a marginal win costs around $5 million. If you get a two-win player for $8 million, that’s a bargain. If you get a one-win player for $6 million, that’s an overpay. In most corners of the analytical baseball world, player acquisitions and signings are judged as fair, ripoffs, or bargains according to this standard.

But there’s a problem: a win doesn’t cost $5 million. A win costs $7 million. Well, actually it’s $7,032,099, but calling it $7 million is fine.

 

[CSF77]

It doesn't fix the lead off. It would fix CF.

That is a whole another issue

 

[beckdawg]

Beckdawg,

Where does this $7 million per WAR come from????

I answered this in the IGT when you asked before but I'll answer it here again. Basically DanTown covered it but the short version here is basically if you track the players who reached FA the past several years in WAR and then track the contract they ended up getting teams ended up paying around $7 mil per win. I think I mentioned this in the IGT that it isn't a 100% constant. For example, top end players tend to earn less because there is usually a cap on how much teams are willing to pay a player. For example, Trout is only making around $30 mil a season which is a little over 4 WAR but clearly he's been better than that. That in turn is offset by the fact you have a lot of guys making $5-10 mil who may not even be worth 1 WAR. As such, the lower end of the spectrum tend to get over payed a bit which makes some sense because honestly there usually isn't a huge amount of talented players on the market year to year. That being said, the top end players are also the most risky.

 

[beckdawg]

It doesn't fix the lead off. It would fix CF.

That is a whole another issue

He's got a .350 OBP. If that's not a good OBP what are you expecting of out of a lead off hitter? It's the 4th best OBP on the team behind Rizzo, Bryant and Schwarber. After re-reading this I'm not 100% sure this comment was about Fowler. If it wasn't about him then disregard.

 

[CSF77]

It was more about letting Almora start early in. CF next year. It doesn't fix the lead off but it fixes CF.

I would lead off with Russell (or Baez as his speed is legit) then bat Almora 9th. Hide him in the line up as they did Russell year 1.

It would stabilize CF not to mention with Wrigg having a smaller CF it takes pressure off of the Corners.

Just a thought. It wouldn't surprise me if the promoted him after the cut off date.

 

[CSF77]

You would figure it would be week 3 where they pass the window. They could just have Coghlan and Szczur in CF until then.

Cog in CF is not a bad solution if it takes longer. He looks to be a odd man out next year but is one of the best performers. You could do worse

 

[fatbeard]

You would figure it would be week 3 where they pass the window. They could just have Coghlan and Szczur in CF until then.

Cog in CF is not a bad solution if it takes longer. He looks to be a odd man out next year but is one of the best performers. You could do worse

Coghlan is a mediocre defender in the corners; I'm not sure why you'd want to see him in CF where the reads are harder and there's more ground to cover. He's a fine utility man and gives you a lefty bat off the bench, but I'm of the opinion that prima facie a serious WS contender does not enter the season with a 4th/5th OF platooning as an everyday solution.

 

[CSF77]

But this years WAR:
Bryant: 5.4
Rizzo: 4.9
Fowler: 3.3
Coghlan: 3.2
Russell: 2.1
Montero: 2.0
Schwarber: 1.9
Denorfia: 0.7
Baez: 0.3
Ross: 0.2
LaStella: 0.1
Jackson: -0.1
Szczur: -0.2
Soler: -0.2
Castro: -0.3
Herrera: -0.3

Kinda spells things out for us.

Bryant, Schwarber, Rizzo, Coghlan, Russell, Montero and Baez are giving positive WAR value.

Castro and Soler negative WAR value.

I really don't complain with out a basis of fact behind it. Yes Castro's D has been good. His O sucks. Soler's D WAR value in RF is at a -11.4. Kinda a reason why I would rather have Bryant out there but that is a whole another issue. The main point here is Coghlan is bringing equal war value to Fowler with 200 less AB's. That means something. Even D war is at a 4.3.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d&page=1_30

All right there to look at.

 

[CSF77]

Coghlan is a mediocre defender in the corners; I'm not sure why you'd want to see him in CF where the reads are harder and there's more ground to cover. He's a fine utility man and gives you a lefty bat off the bench, but I'm of the opinion that prima facie a serious WS contender does not enter the season with a 4th/5th OF platooning as an everyday solution.

Wrong. His D value has been 4.3 Fowler: 1.3. Soler: -11.4. Schwarber: -2.7 (Catcher I believe is messing this one up)


He has been the "best OF"

So wrong.

 

[CSF77]

Well Denorfia is at a 6.2. Ok i'll give him that.