General trade discussion

[beckdawg]

One guy I think the front office should consider is the Yankees' Michael Pineda.

The Yankees are in first place. Why would they trade him when they arguably need to add more pitching?

 

[Boobaby1]

There's no denying Price would be good, but going on 31 next season, how long will he be effective? I also think the Tigers will pay him big money to stay.

If the Cubs do go after Price by chance, this may where the tables are flipped on the Tigers, and the player goes to the other team like Sanchez did with the Cubs a couple years ago.

Also lets not count chickens, many pitchers listed above Boo can be retained.

True. But lets also factor in that Washington is doubtful to retain both Zimmermann and Fister, and Strasburg is a Boras free agent the following year.

The Reds are not going to sign both Cueto and Leake, although Leake is middle of the rotation at best.

Kazmir is not going to go back to Oakland for chump change when he can get top dollar elsewhere, and the jury is out on Price and Greinke.

I don't mind taking a chance on a big gun, even if he is 31. If they can get through the next 4-5 years, it will be well worth it.

Hell, Bryant and Russell will only be in Arb 2 at that time and players like Schwarber or whomever else may be making the league minimum.

I will take a nice little 4-5 year run at the WS, with players like Rizzo still being the oldest position player at 29 during that time.

 

[dreadpirateroberts]

If the Cubs do go after Price by chance, this may where the tables are flipped on the Tigers, and the player goes to the other team like Sanchez did with the Cubs a couple years ago.



True. But lets also factor in that Washington is doubtful to retain both Zimmermann and Fister, and Strasburg is a Boras free agent the following year.

The Reds are not going to sign both Cueto and Leake, although Leake is middle of the rotation at best.

Kazmir is not going to go back to Oakland for chump change when he can get top dollar elsewhere, and the jury is out on Price and Greinke.

I don't mind taking a chance on a big gun, even if he is 31. If they can get through the next 4-5 years, it will be well worth it.

Hell, Bryant and Russell will only be in Arb 2 at that time and players like Schwarber or whomever else may be making the league minimum.

I will take a nice little 4-5 year run at the WS, with players like Rizzo still being the oldest position player at 29 during that time.

I've been saying this all along. Jordan Zimmerman needs to be their #1 target, not David Price or Johnny Cueto. If you fail to attain him, go after cheaper guys like Mat Latos, Mike Leake, or Brett Anderson.

 

[CSF77]

If the Cubs do go after Price by chance, this may where the tables are flipped on the Tigers, and the player goes to the other team like Sanchez did with the Cubs a couple years ago.



True. But lets also factor in that Washington is doubtful to retain both Zimmermann and Fister, and Strasburg is a Boras free agent the following year.

The Reds are not going to sign both Cueto and Leake, although Leake is middle of the rotation at best.

Kazmir is not going to go back to Oakland for chump change when he can get top dollar elsewhere, and the jury is out on Price and Greinke.

I don't mind taking a chance on a big gun, even if he is 31. If they can get through the next 4-5 years, it will be well worth it.

Hell, Bryant and Russell will only be in Arb 2 at that time and players like Schwarber or whomever else may be making the league minimum.

I will take a nice little 4-5 year run at the WS, with players like Rizzo still being the oldest position player at 29 during that time.

They need to find what they have with Turner first before looking outside the org.

 

[CSF77]

I've been saying this all along. Jordan Zimmerman needs to be their #1 target, not David Price or Johnny Cueto. If you fail to attain him, go after cheaper guys like Mat Latos, Mike Leake, or Brett Anderson.

I disagree. If you spend you want a legit ace over Lester who is a #2. Cueto is a league ace. And a proven one at that. He would be above Lester in the rotation.

Zimmerman would be a #2 behind Lester. They already have Hammel and Arrieta who fill that role.

Again they are better off going for a ace or seeing what they have in Turner. He may end up as good as Zimmerman in 3 years.

 

[Boobaby1]

They need to find what they have with Turner first before looking outside the org.

If you believe the FO, they have said that they will add TOR to the line-up. They almost had it with Shields.

That said, if Turner is anything, great. But you don't stop looking for pitching, especially TOR pitching.

I would gladly take Zimmermann, Kazmir, or Cueto right now over Wada, Hendricks, or Turner. Those three can fight for the remaining spot. Well, two, since Wada is likely not to be re-signed next year.

Between Turner and Hendricks, if that is who is left, they can fight for the last spot, and the other help the bullpen. You can never have too much pitching, and they will need a lot tougher pitching than Turner and Hendricks if they plan to beat out the Cardinals, as Wainright will be returning next year.

 

[beckdawg]

I would gladly take Zimmermann, Kazmir, or Cueto right now over Wada, Hendricks, or Turner.

I was going to bring this up some where else but never got around to it. I think people have a skewed view of Zimmerman and Hendricks. To be fair the talk of Hendricks as the next Maddux didn't help. But there have been some on this board that suggested Hendricks was Randy Wells. I think people might now have swung to underselling Hendricks. Consider the following

Jordan Zimmerman
2009 Age 23 91.1 IP, 9.07 k/9, 2.86 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9, .332 BABIP, 4.63/3.59 ERA/FIP
2010 Age 24 31.0 IP, 7.84 k/9, 2.90 bb/9, 2.32 HR/9, .261 BABIP, 4.94/5.85 ERA/FIP
2011 Age 25 161.1 IP, 6.92 k/9, 1.73 bb/9, 0.67 HR/9, .291 BABIP, 3.18/3.16 ERA/FIP
2012 Age 26 195.2 IP, 7.04 k/9, 1.98 bb/9 0.83 HR/9, .288 BABIP, 2.94/3.51 ERA/FIP
2013 Age 27 213.1 IP, 6.79 k/9, 1.69 bb/9, 0.80 hr/9, .271 BABIP, 3.25/3.36 ERA/FIP
2014 Age 28 199.2 IP, 8.20 k/9, 1.31 bb/9 0.59 hr/9 .302 BABIP, 2.66/2.68 ERA/FIP
2015 Age 29 77.0 IP, 6.08 k/9 2.10 bb/9 0.35 HR/9, .337 BABIP, 3.74/3.04 ERA/FIP

Those give him career totals of 969.1 IP, 7.34 k/9, 1.86 bb/9, 0.77 hr/9, .295 BABIP, 3.28/3.29 ERA/FIP

Kyle Hendricks
2014 Age 24 80.1 IP, 5.27 k/9, 1.68 bb/9, 0.45 HR/9, .271 BABIP, 2.46/3.32 ERA/FIP
2015 Age 25 68.2 IP, 7.73 k/9, 1.70 bb/9, 0.92 HR/9, .299 BABIP, 3.80/3.45 ERA/FIP

Those give him career totals of 149.0 IP, 6.40 k/9, 1.69 bb/9, 0.66 HR/9, .283 BABIP, 3.08/3.38 ERA/FIP.

Now I want to be fully up front. My personal belief based on the numbers alone is that Zimmerman probably has slightly better stuff. The most Hendricks ever struck out was in A- as a 21 year old at 9.92 k/9 though it was only over 32.2 IP. A more realistic best actually happened last year in AAA where he had an 8.50 k/9 at AAA over 102.2 IP. Zimmerman bounced around a bit in the minors but had a very solid 9.4 k/9 overall compared to 7.7 overall for Hendricks.

With that said, the numbers suggest they aren't as far off as people would have you believe. If we look at this year alone Hendricks has arguably out pitched Zimmerman(in fact he beat him head to head twice). He has a better k/9 and bb/9 with a relatively similar ERA/FIP and that is after starting the year with a 5.23 ERA in April. Since May 5th Hendricks has a 3.19 ERA. Additionally, if you compare each's first 150 or so innings in the majors Hendricks is also clearly better. So, the obvious possibility of Hendricks having a similar development bump to Zimmerman is there too.

If we look at the past 10 years for pitchers who have less than 2 bb/9 you have the following names(min 600 IP to remove relievers)
Greg Maddux(4.95 k/9 1.39 bb/9)
Carlos Silva(4.04 k/9 1.49 bb/9)
Kevin Slowey(6.73 k/9 1.51 bb/9)
Roy Halladay(7.18 k/9 1.58 bb/9)
Paul Byrd(4.23 k/9 1.58 bb/9)
Carl Pavano(5.01 k/9 1.63 bb/9)
Cliff Lee(7.58 k/9 1.67 bb/9)
Bartolo Colon(6.28 k/9 1.73 bb/9)
Doug Fister(6.05 k/9 1.75 bb/9)
Dan haren(7.64 k/9 1.80 bb/9)
Mike Mussina(6.85 k/9 1.83 bb/9)
Jordan Zimmerman(7.34 k/9 1.86 bb/9)
Tommy Hunter(5.54 k/9 1.96 bb/9)
Mark Buehrle(5.10 k/9 1.97 bb/9)
Chris Carpenter(7.20 k/9 1.99 bb/9)
Hiroki Kuroda(6.73 k/9 1.99 bb/9)

I think given what Hendricks has shown thus far it's fairly safe to say he's at least a 5+ k/9 guy. That leaves you a list of Slowey, Halladay, Pavano, Lee, Colon, Fister, Haren, Mussina, Zimmerman, Hunter, Buehrle, Carpenter, and Kuroda. The worst guys on that list are almost surely Slowey(8 career fWAR) and Hunter(4 career fWAR). That being said, there's a lot of pretty interesting names on that list as comparisons. Mussina for example had a career 7.11 k/9 1.98 bb/9 0.95 hr/9 .292 BABIP 3.68/3.57 ERA/FIP. He obviously was considered a staff ace of sorts for a number of years. Carpenter and Lee might be pushing things as a comparison as they were pushing high 7+'s in k/9 in many of their good years. Mark Buehrle on the other hand is another guy who was a work horse who never k'd higher than 6.50 k/9 and never walked more than 2.38 bb/9.

Ultimately, my view on Hendricks is to hope for Doug Fister. In other words, a workhorse who is great in the regular season but perhaps more of a 4/5 on a competing team. But you shouldn't rule out the possibility of him being much more. Cliff Lee was literally a throw in piece to the Brandon Phillips/Grady Sizemore trade for Bartolo Colon. Chris Carpenter was cut by the Blue Jays and didn't have an ERA below 4 until the cards picked him up at age 29. Hendricks is probably never going to be flashy striking a ton of guys out but pitchers who throw strikes are game winners. The full list of players above had a 1263-970 record(56.6% or roughly 17 wins a season per 30 starts). And if anyone is going to get the best out of Hendricks it's almost certainly Bosio.

 

[CSF77]

I think 2011 Zimmerman is a realistic goal for Hendricks should shoot for. 161 IP 3.18 ERA 26 GS. Getting his ERA down to 3.18 is the biggest challenge for Hendricks. I would be surprised if he didn't get over 180. He is on pace right now to get 171 in 30 GS. This is avg in his cruddy start.

 

[TL1961]

They need to find what they have with Turner first before looking outside the org.

Well, only if they find out by July 15-20. You don't put improvement on hold for him. But I do think he will help.

 

[Boobaby1]

My point about the pitching was that they need to upgrade over Wada. I had said that Hendricks and Turner can fight out for the fifth spot if Turner starts to show some promise.

We need an additional potential TOR guy in the rotation. I want Hendricks as my weakest link, and I would rather have Wada in the bullpen or simply used as starter depth with Wood.

 

[knoxville7]

Why not? Just curious.

hes having a good year and all but I just feel that what the phils will expect in return will be too high for a 34 year old reliever

 

[beckdawg]

http://espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=10467

Onley suggests the the Sox should trade Sale. He's someone I'd like to sell the farm for.

 

[ijustposthere]

http://espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=10467

Onley suggests the the Sox should trade Sale. He's someone I'd like to sell the farm for.

Not sure Kenny would do it. He seems like someone who really hates that the Cubs have more fans than the Sox. I would love to see Sale in a Cubs uniform though.

 

[beckdawg]

Not sure Kenny would do it. He seems like someone who really hates that the Cubs have more fans than the Sox. I would love to see Sale in a Cubs uniform though.

Tend to agree Sox probably wouldn't do it.

 

[CSF77]

Tend to agree Sox probably wouldn't do it.

Wouldn't happen. Sale would cost a package starting with Schwarber. And dont doubt that Kenny would have him hitting on the major league roster the next day. He is not going to baby him like Theo would.

That is the reality. You are talking Schwarber, then they would want Baez (or Russell) then Edwards (or Johnson who has back from ext S/T and has not given up a run yet). Then toss in Olt to see if he is an UPG to what they have at 3B.

That would be a price point for Sale. I doubt that Theo would even entertain the idea.

 

[CSF77]

A ideal package would be Vogelbach, Edwards, and Torres. Toss in Olt. Now that would not buy a prime option like Sale but could be a strong offer for Sonny Gray.