General trade discussion

[chibears55]

Again, you're paying $23.5 mil for a #3 starter even if you place him in front of Hammel. Also you're forgetting that they haven't yet locked up Arrieta long term who isn't going to be cheap.

Lester's owed roughly $25 mil for the length of his deal per season. I'm guessing Arrieta probably gets north of $20 mil per. Hamels would make them paying roughly $70 mil per season for 3 pitchers. Their entire team right now is making roughly $116.7 mil. That's a lot of money to dump on three players.

You need to step away from the numbers with the starters..
When you have 3 solid TOR type starters, it doesn't matter wheather they start the season 1,2, or 3.. all that matters is they pick up the ball every 5th day...

If their going to become serious WS contenders, its going to cost 60-70 mil on your top 3 starters, unless you have a young stud up there. .

Also having a young team with friendly deals and still in Arbs helps with the overall salary..

Also the whole point of the video board, advertising, etc. Is so they can afford to pay those type of salaries in order to compete and stay competitive year after year..

Also how much difference are you talking 6 to 8 mil more if they brought in a middle rotation guy at 15-17 mil per..
That peanuts..


Look at where the cubs salary sits the next 4 years overall, they can more then afford 3 20+ per at top of their rotation and still have plenty to go around

 

[beckdawg]

What it boils down to is the cubs could have a solid 1 thru 3

Cubs already have arguably one of the top 5 best 1-3's in the majors.... right now.... without Hamels. If we go by NL pitchers in fWAR Arreita is #5, Hammel is #13 and that scrub Lester is #22. The Pirates have Cole #4, Burnett #6 and Liriano #21. The nationals have Scherzer #1, Zimmerman #12 and Gonzo #17. No other team in the NL has more than 2 in the top 25. FWIW, Hamels is #23

I get if people are some what skeptical about Hammel but at some point you have to start believing that whatever he's doing different with the cubs is working. He's made 27 starts and 168 innings at essentially these same numbers. And hell if you just compare Hamels and Hammel(this is starting to get confusing...) you're talking about Hamels with a 9.20/3.03/1.21 k/9 bb/9 HR/9 with a .246 BABIP against and 2.91/3.93 ERA/FIP. Hammel on the other hand has 8.65/1.04/0.90 with a .259 BABIP against and 2.98/2.96. He's objectively pitched as well or better in all facets.

Like I said, I'm not saying Hamels is a terrible pitcher. But you're going to be paying him $23.5 mil a year as you mentioned and he's only going to get worse over that contract. If he costs what similarly hyped pitchers have at the deadline in past years I can't see him being worth it and I see no reason to believe Amaro wont get that. If a Shark package nets you Addison Russell then Hamels is going to net something quite similar.

 

[chibears55]

Cubs already have arguably one of the top 5 best 1-3's in the majors.... right now.... without Hamels. If we go by NL pitchers in fWAR Arreita is #5, Hammel is #13 and that scrub Lester is #22. The Pirates have Cole #4, Burnett #6 and Liriano #21. The nationals have Scherzer #1, Zimmerman #12 and Gonzo #17. No other team in the NL has more than 2 in the top 25. FWIW, Hamels is #23

I get if people are some what skeptical about Hammel but at some point you have to start believing that whatever he's doing different with the cubs is working. He's made 27 starts and 168 innings at essentially these same numbers. And hell if you just compare Hamels and Hammel(this is starting to get confusing...) you're talking about Hamels with a 9.20/3.03/1.21k/9 bb/9 HR/9 with a .246 BABIP against and 2.91/3.93 ERA/FIP. Hammel on the other hand has 8.65/1.04/0.90 with a .259 BABIP against and 2.98/2.96. He's objectively pitched as well or better in all facets.

Like I said, I'm not saying Hamels is a terrible pitcher. But you're going to be paying him $23.5 mil a year as you mentioned and he's only going to get worse over that contract. If he costs what similarly hyped pitchers have at the deadline in past years I can't see him being worth it and I see no reason to believe Amaro wont get that. If a Shark package nets you Addison Russell then Hamels is going to net something quite similar.

Id take my chances with Hamels over Hammel keeping that stat in tact for the whole season..

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Cubs already have arguably one of the top 5 best 1-3's in the majors.... right now.... without Hamels. If we go by NL pitchers in fWAR Arreita is #5, Hammel is #13 and that scrub Lester is #22. The Pirates have Cole #4, Burnett #6 and Liriano #21. The nationals have Scherzer #1, Zimmerman #12 and Gonzo #17. No other team in the NL has more than 2 in the top 25. FWIW, Hamels is #23

I get if people are some what skeptical about Hammel but at some point you have to start believing that whatever he's doing different with the cubs is working. He's made 27 starts and 168 innings at essentially these same numbers. And hell if you just compare Hamels and Hammel(this is starting to get confusing...) you're talking about Hamels with a 9.20/3.03/1.21 k/9 bb/9 HR/9 with a .246 BABIP against and 2.91/3.93 ERA/FIP. Hammel on the other hand has 8.65/1.04/0.90 with a .259 BABIP against and 2.98/2.96. He's objectively pitched as well or better in all facets.

Like I said, I'm not saying Hamels is a terrible pitcher. But you're going to be paying him $23.5 mil a year as you mentioned and he's only going to get worse over that contract. If he costs what similarly hyped pitchers have at the deadline in past years I can't see him being worth it and I see no reason to believe Amaro wont get that. If a Shark package nets you Addison Russell then Hamels is going to net something quite similar.

I'm actually with you on most of this, my concern is not so much getting another TOR guy for now but someone who can move up in the future and most importantly is young. Age concerns me more than anything else. Maybe Carl Edwards Jr. cracks the rotation next year and he's a guy like that, maybe Jacob Turner gets healthy and competes for a spot. They need a young pitcher with TOR potential and maybe even two of them. Hendricks isn't it. That's why I think if you're trading prospects you go that direction not another post 30 guy. The one thing I will say though is that the Russell/Samardzija thing was a fluke. Billy Beane overpaid on purpose with the #4 prospect in the game at that time. That said Hamels will cost a team's #1 or #2 prospect, another from the top 5 and a riskier but toolsy younger prospect in say the 8-15 rank range. That's a haul.

My biggest concern with the Cubs going forward is striking balances. Age on the starting rotation, strikeouts, OBP and power in the lineup and defense on the field. I don't think they have be the youngest or the best but well balanced will work. I don't worry much about LF defense if your infield is solid and your CF is solid or beyond that. Then you can live with some "less than" guys. These things are going to biggest challenge going forward. They're not building a fantasy team, they're hopefully building a sustained winner.

 

[CSF77]

Fip:
Arrieta: 2.88
Hammel: 2.96
Lester: 3.46
Hendricks: 3.63
Wada: 3.50

Cole Hamels: 3.93
Aaron Harang: 3.05
Scott Kazmir: 3.87
Johnny Cueto: 3.29


Interesting:

Cubs Expected To Pursue Ben Zobrist
By Jeff Todd [May 29, 2015 at 6:57pm CDT]
The Cubs are expected to pursue a trade for Ben Zobrist of the Athletics this summer, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Zobrist recently returned to action after missing time for knee surgery.

Zobrist, who just turned 34, has played all over the diamond in his career, registering stellar defensive marks at numerous positions. In recent years, he’s spent most of his time at second base and the corner outfield, though he played at short quite a bit earlier in his career. Of course, Zobrist has also consistently delivered well-above-average production on offense, with a career .264/.354/.429 batting line.

All said, Zobrist has been one of the ten most valuable all-around position players in the game since the start of 2011. He is still a bargain with only a $7.5MM salary this season, though he’ll hit the open market after the year.

A trade would, of course, render Zobrist ineligible for a qualifying offer, and Oakland will surely be looking for a return that exceeds the value of a compensatory draft pick if it decides to move him at the trade deadline. That is no sure thing, as Wittenmyer notes, as Oakland still hopes to get back into contention.

From the Cubs’ perspective, adding Zobrist would make obvious sense, though that can be said of many other teams as well. The veteran thrived under skipper Joe Maddon when both were with the Rays, and he’d offer the team ample flexibility while deepening its lineup. While Chicago has enjoyed strong production at many spots in the everyday lineup, its bench has been underwhelming.

In value. He would have to be worth more than a sandwich pick in return value. It almost feels that they could trade out Alcantara and get the real deal. Now to make it interesting and bring back Sonny Grey would they add Baez and give them back McKinny? That would be a mega deal. From the Cubs perspective they get that super sub and a longer term TOR. Athletics would get 3 talented bats in return. 2 would pretty much be the starting MI the next day. Now they could just toss a arm into it also.

IDK interesting at least.

 

[TL1961]

Fip:
Arrieta: 2.88
Hammel: 2.96
Lester: 3.46
Hendricks: 3.63
Wada: 3.50

Cole Hamels: 3.93
Aaron Harang: 3.05
Scott Kazmir: 3.87
Johnny Cueto: 3.29


Interesting:



In value. He would have to be worth more than a sandwich pick in return value. It almost feels that they could trade out Alcantara and get the real deal. Now to make it interesting and bring back Sonny Grey would they add Baez and give them back McKinny? That would be a mega deal. From the Cubs perspective they get that super sub and a longer term TOR. Athletics would get 3 talented bats in return. 2 would pretty much be the starting MI the next day. Now they could just toss a arm into it also.

IDK interesting at least.

Baez, Alcantara and McKinney for Gray and a mid-30's journeyman?

 

[CSF77]

Baez, Alcantara and McKinney for Gray and a mid-30's journeyman?

Question is how much Gray is worth? I'm seeing a Fip: 2.73 MLB service time: 1.061. So you are buying 4 years on him and he is 25. He is worth giving up Baez and 2 more as it is. I would even say Baez, Alcantara and a lower level SP would be a strong trade offer for Gray. Add in Ben (SH 34) but is a legit upgrade in LF.

Zobrist: .243/.299/.386 20 games so far after coming off of the DL. Last year 10 HR's 83 RBI's.75 BB and 84 SO's. pretty close to 1:1 ratio. Even this year 6 and 6. So he has a strong sense of the strike zone. 10 SB. Looks like his speed has decayed. Last time he hit 20 HR's was 2012. So most likely that is in his past.

Still with his plate discipline thinking him in LF hitting #2. Starting. Not on the bench. Thus Cog's hits the bench as the 4th OF. They then can start moving Lake around the diamond. This allows Bryant to slot back down to #4.

Fowler
Zobrist
Rizzo
Bryant
Montero
Soler
Castro
Pitcher
Russell

But the kicker:
Lester
Gray
Arrieta
Hammel
Hendricks

That is a play off rotation. Add to it they have 2 years of control on Arrieta, 1 more year on Hammel and 4 on Gray. So this rotation plays next year also. I'll bet Ben extends to play for Maddon. Pretty much a no brainier here.

So IMO just to get Gray ya trading Baez is 100% worth it. You have to give up a blue chip to get a pitcher of that quality and control.

 

[TL1961]

Well, Baez for Gray would be your blue chipper.

McKinney and Alcantara for Zobrist? No thanks. AA can be the utility guy and we keep McKinney.

Give the A's Vogelbach in the trade if they need someone else in order to trade Gray.

 

[CSF77]

Well, Baez for Gray would be your blue chipper.

McKinney and Alcantara for Zobrist? No thanks. AA can be the utility guy and we keep McKinney.

Give the A's Vogelbach in the trade if they need someone else in order to trade Gray.

It would cost Baez and 2 more just to get Gray. Gray had 33 starts last year. 3.08 ERA in the AL.

I think you are over valuing Baez by far if you think those 2 have equal value. The only way that would happen is if Baez would have put up Bryant's production last year. Even then proven pitching holds more value.

 

[CSF77]

Vogelbach would net Ben.

Also I'm thinking you are overvaluing McKinney. He is a at best Avg OF. Not much power but with a decent hit tool. He is ok but his top end is questionable.

Gray is worth Baez, Alcantara and a arm alone. A's will get a sandwich pick for holding Ben. So his value is above that.

Bottom line is Baez, Alcantara are not proven products. McKinny is a minor league player. Ben and Gray are proven. Gray is a TOR and probley #2 on the rotation right now. Maybe even the staff ace. That may end up happening sooner than later. Ben you are buying a year but he is a vet that can start in LF. He has play off exp. Which this team needs. And can be retained and put in the bench as talent progresses. He already is a super sub type but is a major upgrade to Cog's right now. Also he gives strong OBA skills.

 

[Boobaby1]

Well, Baez for Gray would be your blue chipper.

McKinney and Alcantara for Zobrist? No thanks. AA can be the utility guy and we keep McKinney.

Give the A's Vogelbach in the trade if they need someone else in order to trade Gray.

If you want Gray, it will cost the Cubs Baez, Johnson, and Vogelbach and probably an A ball pitcher for sure, or a package very similar to that. Frankly, if that is what he is worth, do you pull the trigger? Or, do you get a rental, and then spend the money in the offseason?

If you want a chance to get in the playoffs, you go the MUCH lesser route and go after Scott Kazmir or Aaron Harang, which would cost something like Vogelbach/Almora and Alcantara?

I think I will leave this to the people that have the info right in front of them, and I am glad it is not my decision.

 

[WindyCity]

If you want Gray, it will cost the Cubs Baez, Johnson, and Vogelbach and probably an A ball pitcher for sure, or a package very similar to that. Frankly, if that is what he is worth, do you pull the trigger? Or, do you get a rental, and then spend the money in the offseason?

If you want a chance to get in the playoffs, you go the MUCH lesser route and go after Scott Kazmir or Aaron Harang, which would cost something like Vogelbach/Almora and Alcantara?

I think I will leave this to the people that have the info right in front of them, and I am glad it is not my decision.

At Grays age and with his resume already at 25 I think you need to explore the deal.

Especially if teams have cooled on Castro and Baez is blocked.

I would listen to Baez, McKinney and something for Gray and Zobrist.



My issue with buying pitching is that you are rarely getting a guy in his physical prime for the entire length of contract. Even with Lester the Cubs are going to be paying for years where he is 36 and probably breaking down physically.

 

[CSF77]

At Grays age and with his resume already at 25 I think you need to explore the deal.

Especially if teams have cooled on Castro and Baez is blocked.

I would listen to Baez, McKinney and something for Gray and Zobrist.



My issue with buying pitching is that you are rarely getting a guy in his physical prime for the entire length of contract. Even with Lester the Cubs are going to be paying for years where he is 36 and probably breaking down physically.

I agree. It would have to start with Baez. Shark and Hammel cost a blue chip, a 2nd piece and a toss away SP. Both had little control.

So Hammel = Zorbrist in value.
Gray holds way more value than shark did at that point. I would argue his value is 2x's Sharks.

Basically Shark = Russell and the pitcher toss in.
Hammel = McKinney

So in terms of value:
Zorbrist = McKinney (or Vogelbach)
Gray = Baez x2. and 2 trash pitchers.

Now I wouldn't pay that package at all. But thinking of it a package of Baez, Alcantara, Vogelbach and a arm (nothing of worth) is a fair offer.
It is basically saying that Alcantara is a blue chip quality player in this deal. My opinion is Vogelbach is the 2nd blue chip in value.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Can we get a real backup catcher thrown in on one of these trades? Someone who can actually hit the ball once in a while?

 

[WindyCity]

I agree. It would have to start with Baez. Shark and Hammel cost a blue chip, a 2nd piece and a toss away SP. Both had little control.

So Hammel = Zorbrist in value.
Gray holds way more value than shark did at that point. I would argue his value is 2x's Sharks.

Basically Shark = Russell and the pitcher toss in.
Hammel = McKinney

So in terms of value:
Zorbrist = McKinney (or Vogelbach)
Gray = Baez x2. and 2 trash pitchers.

Now I wouldn't pay that package at all. But thinking of it a package of Baez, Alcantara, Vogelbach and a arm (nothing of worth) is a fair offer.
It is basically saying that Alcantara is a blue chip quality player in this deal. My opinion is Vogelbach is the 2nd blue chip in value.

I like how you broke that down.

Baez
Vogelbach
Alcantara
Pitcher

for

Gray
Zobrist

That would make me think, because I do not see how Vogelbach or Alcantara have an impact for the Cubs, and I can see how they would fit in with the Athletics.

 

[CSF77]

Can we get a real backup catcher thrown in on one of these trades? Someone who can actually hit the ball once in a while?

He is a back up catcher. He only catches when Lester starts. Even then he comes out when the pen takes over. His impact is small on the team. Add to it there are not enough LHSP league wide to make a strong case about having a top end RH back up. If that was the case then I doubt they trade out Castillo. The need for heavy playing time out of a back up was not needed due to the amount of starting LH pitchers. In the div how many are there? 2 in Pit. 1 on Cin. 0 on Mil and the Cards....ya big time impact.

That would make me think, because I do not see how Vogelbach or Alcantara have an impact for the Cubs, and I can see how they would fit in with the Athletics.

Alcantara would be a bench player on the Cubs. He would start at 2B for the A's. He has more value to the A's than the Cubs.

In a year they could have Vogelbach at DH, Baez at SS and Alcantara at 2B. Just in that deal. Then toss in a arm to fill the void caused by Gray leaving. Don't matter they can take any of the SP (not Edwards) in AAA and then bump Edwards into the void created in that rotation. Shoot Pimentel pitched a strong game last night and might get an opportunity in Oakland that he wouldn't see here.

Basically Baez is blocked. Alcantara has been type cast into a bench role and Vogelbach has no DH role to look forward to. Pimentel is a good toss in and may have a future elsewhere. Cubs lose players that impact the current team not at all. But they gain a potential long term staff ace and a current LF with the option of retaining as a supersub with out giving up and draft pool. That alone makes it worth it as losing draft pool hurts way more when you are constantly reloading every year.

 

[Parade_Rain]

He is a back up catcher. He only catches time through the rotation. Even then he comes out when the pen takes over. His impact is small on the team..

He catches even when his personal pitcher is going against a RHP. Little things matter and I expect it to end at some point.

 

[CSF77]

He catches even when his personal pitcher is going against a RHP. Little things matter and I expect it to end at some point.

Miguel needs a day off. Do I agree with it? Not really but any starting catcher needs days off through out the year.

I get what they are doing. They created a pitcher/catcher relationship. That was the goal not O production out of the catcher. That is viewed as bonus. So yes the staff is being catered to. I guess you have to deal with it.

My opinion is the staff as a whole is more important than production out of your back up catcher. When you look at it, that has more impact.

I'm thinking this situation will only last this year. Next year they have to make a decision on Schwarber and if he is the catcher of the future or not. But I don't see them tinkering with anything that affects the staff.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

He catches even when his personal pitcher is going against a RHP. Little things matter and I expect it to end at some point.

Ross' value is beyond the Lester relationship to the Cubs. They say he's the first guy the young players go to with questions about the game and that he spends a lot of time with anyone who asks. Len Kasper has said that Rizzo is the unquestioned field leader and Ross is the unquestioned clubhouse leader. That matters and the fact that they don't care about his offensive production was settled early on. He's going to be here all year, he most likely will be here next year. As fans we may not like it but at the reasons the Cubs have are well thought out and aren't a bunch of BS.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Ross' value is beyond the Lester relationship to the Cubs. They say he's the first guy the young players go to with questions about the game and that he spends a lot of time with anyone who asks. Len Kasper has said that Rizzo is the unquestioned field leader and Ross is the unquestioned clubhouse leader. That matters and the fact that they don't care about his offensive production was settled early on. He's going to be here all year, he most likely will be here next year. As fans we may not like it but at the reasons the Cubs have are well thought out and aren't a bunch of BS.

Sure. He has won titles with Lester. It's like Manny at Iowa. Players talk to other players more than they will a coach. It makes sense. It also makes sense to make him a coach at some point and transition Lester to another catcher.