General trade discussion

[2323]

From Heyman via mlb trade rumors.

Rival execs? Interesting admission. He's saying this Castro stuff wasn't from the Cubs (in case it was in doubt).

Or is this drumbeat of Cubs rumors a bi product of the Cubs being a team that moves the needle, now that they are winning?

Also, both can be true.

 

[beckdawg]

The following players are eligible for the rule 5 draft if they are not on the 40 man this coming winter. Of note from that are likely the following...

Danny Lockhart, INF
Stephen Bruno, INF
Jeimer Candelario, INF
Corey Black, RHP
Pierce Johnson, RHP
Bijan Rademacher, OF
Ivan Pineyro, RHP
Daury Torrez, RHP
Dan Vogelbach, 1B

I'd also toss in Christian Villanueva who's on the 40 man but seems to have a tough route to the majors with the cubs. Bear in mind that Schwarber isn't presently on the 40 man roster and you conceivably could be seeing him at the end of the year or start of next. Baxter is an easy cut off the 40 man. Schlitter and Germen are likely too. After that it gets a bit more difficult. I'd imagine they could feasibly find spots for Pineyro, Johnson and Black if they choose to. Torrez is still in A+ so he seems a long shot.

Vogelbach seems like a guy that's gotta go. Not that he's a bad player but it's hard to believe he'll be much better than what he's hit in AA this year and rostering him just doesn't seem worth while with Rizzo. I think for an AL team he is probably good enough to be the second billing in a trade unless it's a Price level deal. For example, I'd argue he is more valuable than Olt was at the time of the Garza deal.

Bruno and Lockhart largely depend on what happens with Baez IMO. It is easy enough to ditch Herrera and go with one of those two. But between Alcantara, La Stella, Russell, Castro and Baez they are obviously super deep here. Bruno is a bit of an empty average guy however he has hit .309/.383/.428 over 903 minor league PAs. Not terrible for a bench guy. As for Lockhart I don't personally get why mlb.com has him on the top 30 cubs prospects but he is there. On Rademacher, he's another guy I'm not entirely sold on being in mlb.com's top 30 guys but whatever. If the cubs like him they could potentially move Lake and have him be a AAA guy for next year ready for call up. Jeimer Candelario is still in A+ having to repeat it. He might be safe from rule 5 because I'm not entirely sure a team would be ready to toss him on to their bench.

Overall, I think Villanueva and Vogelbach seem like the most obvious choices to go. Villanueva would be a decent cheap option for a team with 3B issues going into next year. He doesn't have amazing upside so you're not likely to get anything amazing for him alone but you could probably get a bullpen guy or a half decent OFer for him.

 

[CSF77]

The following players are eligible for the rule 5 draft if they are not on the 40 man this coming winter. Of note from that are likely the following...

Danny Lockhart, INF
Stephen Bruno, INF
Jeimer Candelario, INF
Corey Black, RHP
Pierce Johnson, RHP
Bijan Rademacher, OF
Ivan Pineyro, RHP
Daury Torrez, RHP
Dan Vogelbach, 1B

I'd also toss in Christian Villanueva who's on the 40 man but seems to have a tough route to the majors with the cubs. Bear in mind that Schwarber isn't presently on the 40 man roster and you conceivably could be seeing him at the end of the year or start of next. Baxter is an easy cut off the 40 man. Schlitter and Germen are likely too. After that it gets a bit more difficult. I'd imagine they could feasibly find spots for Pineyro, Johnson and Black if they choose to. Torrez is still in A+ so he seems a long shot.

Vogelbach seems like a guy that's gotta go. Not that he's a bad player but it's hard to believe he'll be much better than what he's hit in AA this year and rostering him just doesn't seem worth while with Rizzo. I think for an AL team he is probably good enough to be the second billing in a trade unless it's a Price level deal. For example, I'd argue he is more valuable than Olt was at the time of the Garza deal.

Bruno and Lockhart largely depend on what happens with Baez IMO. It is easy enough to ditch Herrera and go with one of those two. But between Alcantara, La Stella, Russell, Castro and Baez they are obviously super deep here. Bruno is a bit of an empty average guy however he has hit .309/.383/.428 over 903 minor league PAs. Not terrible for a bench guy. As for Lockhart I don't personally get why mlb.com has him on the top 30 cubs prospects but he is there. On Rademacher, he's another guy I'm not entirely sold on being in mlb.com's top 30 guys but whatever. If the cubs like him they could potentially move Lake and have him be a AAA guy for next year ready for call up. Jeimer Candelario is still in A+ having to repeat it. He might be safe from rule 5 because I'm not entirely sure a team would be ready to toss him on to their bench.

Overall, I think Villanueva and Vogelbach seem like the most obvious choices to go. Villanueva would be a decent cheap option for a team with 3B issues going into next year. He doesn't have amazing upside so you're not likely to get anything amazing for him alone but you could probably get a bullpen guy or a half decent OFer for him.

Vill is hitting .290 right now. His power is lite for a 3B but he came in as a D spec. Now his error total is baffling this year. He would get snagged just because 3B is a spot in the league that is thin.

Vogelbach same thing. It is not about his power. It is about his SO:BB ratio is 1.18. He knows the strike zone. His OBA is .433. So he is not an easy out. So pitchers are going to have real issues dealing with him right off the bat. He doesn't give up AB's. He would be an elite talent if it was not for his suspect D. But on the flip side a AL could pick him up on rule V could insert him at DH at 500K and have little to lose with it. He struggles they just return him to the Cubs. If he has success they get a cost controlled DH for nothing.

Now on protecting: Questionable. Cubs should trade them at the deadline while the values are peaking. Pointless to waste 40 man spots on players with no future on the team. And pointless to give them away for nothing.

 

[Boobaby1]

Beane's reload in Oakland doesn't seem to be working. How long until he starts selling for prospects?

Should be soon, and as I have stated, Kazmir and Reddick have my interest.

 

[WindyCity]

Listening to Kap and Haugh they were discussing the long rumoured Cubs bat for Mets pitcher trade that I think has been going on for 16 months.

I was wondering if the Cubs did make such a move who would you rather see traded Castro or Baez?

That was the center of this dicussion and I was torn, Castro is proven even with his quirks and limitations, but Baez has the potential offensively.

 

[WindyCity]

What would potential Vogelbach trades look like? What could the Cubs expect in return?

Would be nice to flip him to a struggling AL team for some serious bull pen help.

 

[beckdawg]

What would potential Vogelbach trades look like? What could the Cubs expect in return?

Would be nice to flip him to a struggling AL team for some serious bull pen help.

IIRC most probably have a 50ish grade on Vogelbach with the main beef being where you play him. Corey Black was a 45 grade and netted Soriano. So, something half decent but he's not going to be the main guy in a big time pitcher trade. More likely situation would be him being the second or third piece in a blockbuster type trade.

 

[beckdawg]

Listening to Kap and Haugh they were discussing the long rumoured Cubs bat for Mets pitcher trade that I think has been going on for 16 months.

I was wondering if the Cubs did make such a move who would you rather see traded Castro or Baez?

That was the center of this dicussion and I was torn, Castro is proven even with his quirks and limitations, but Baez has the potential offensively.

You'd be stupid to trade Castro prior to Baez actually proving himself in the majors. His AAA is obviously looking good but he hit well prior to being called up last year too. Full disclosure my opinion on Baez is he's unlikely to ever be a star and some would suggested I'm biased toward him though I don't really see that. With that being said, my view is that they are saying a world by their actions. There was an interview today or yesterday saying they had no plans to move him to the OF. They've not played him at 3B either. While it's semi-feasible you could move Russell or Castro to 3B to force him into the line up, I can't imagine why you'd move Castro off short when you didn't do it for Russell. So, I view things as one of two ways. Either 1) they are building his value to trade Baez or 2) they have some sort of longer term plan beyond this year. I suppose it could also just be a case where they will wait for the right trade to come about which would kind of be a combo of the two.

Overall, I'm not sure the cubs are going to jump at the chance to trade for a marginal talent and give up a bunch to do it. For example, I can't see them making the same move the A's did with Shark. That's not to say Shark is a terrible player but it sure looks like last year was a glimpse of potential rather than a new norm for him. As such, I think it's some what probable they don't make any big moves. I feel like if you're going to trade a piece like Baez it's for a clear franchise player pre-prime or at the early part of it vs someone like Hamels who while good should continue to get worse year to year. This year is likely the first year in a 5-7 year run up. Worst thing you can do is over pay for something that doesn't make a true difference.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

When it's all said and done I'm betting on the trade being with the Mets, likely for Syndergaard with off chance that it ends up being Matz. I think the rumor that NY is insisting on Russell while the Cubs ideally want to send Baez, or Castro if they have to in a larger deal,makes a lot of sense. The pitching move has to be one that helps going forward or they'll ride this year out and sign a pitcher in FA. Plus the Mets going with a 6 man rotation smacks of them trying to showcase pitching in hopes of a trade.

 

[beckdawg]

When it's all said and done I'm betting on the trade being with the Mets, likely for Syndergaard with off chance that it ends up being Matz. I think the rumor that NY is insisting on Russell while the Cubs ideally want to send Baez, or Castro if they have to in a larger deal,makes a lot of sense. The pitching move has to be one that helps going forward or they'll ride this year out and sign a pitcher in FA. Plus the Mets going with a 6 man rotation smacks of them trying to showcase pitching in hopes of a trade.

From what I've read Alderson is as big of a hang up as anything with the Mets. He's apparently very disinclined to make big moves.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

From what I've read Alderson is as big of a hang up as anything with the Mets. He's apparently very disinclined to make big moves.

I can understand some reluctance, especially since the Cubs are likely to be one of their main competitors in the Wild Card race, but with Wrights further injuries their situation is getting desperate. I'm not 100% convinced a move will happen but I think it makes a lot of sense on both sides.

 

[WindyCity]

What would a Baez for Syndgaard package look like?

Baez and what?

 

[WindyCity]

IIRC most probably have a 50ish grade on Vogelbach with the main beef being where you play him. Corey Black was a 45 grade and netted Soriano. So, something half decent but he's not going to be the main guy in a big time pitcher trade. More likely situation would be him being the second or third piece in a blockbuster type trade.

Could you use Voggie in a package with the Yankees to get a guy like Delline Betances?

The Yankees DH and 1B have a combined age of 1000, and they love power.

What would need to be added?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

What would a Baez for Syndgaard package look like?

Baez and what?

You'd have to figure that the Cubs would be looking at a straight up trade or maybe send a fringe prospect to NY in the deal. The rumors are that the Mets would make a straight up deal with Castro or Russel for Syndergaard but the Cubs likely won't trade Russell and they'd want a second pitcher if it's Castro. Matz is also ready to come up to MLB so maybe the deal ends up being Baez for Matz? There's some work to be done there in terms of matching values as the teams still seem far apart.

 

[WindyCity]

You'd have to figure that the Cubs would be looking at a straight up trade or maybe send a fringe prospect to NY in the deal. The rumors are that the Mets would make a straight up deal with Castro or Russel for Syndergaard but the Cubs likely won't trade Russell and they'd want a second pitcher if it's Castro. Matz is also ready to come up to MLB so maybe the deal ends up being Baez for Matz? There's some work to be done there in terms of matching values as the teams still seem far apart.

I wouldn't trade Russell at all.

Castro for Syndgaard feels like they would need to include something as Castro is a 3 time all star and Syndgaard is a big pile of potential.

Baez for Syndgaard would make sense value wise and for what the teams need.

I wonder if it could be worked as

Syndgaard
Mats

For

Baez
McKinney

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The Mets need guys that are ready now, Baez is on the cusp of fitting that bill. McKinney is 2 years away. With as badly as Castro is slumping he would really have to turn it around in June for The Cubs to get what he's worth in a trade. Also I don't think the Mets will part with both Syndergaard and Matz. Still these these two teams do look like likely trade partners even if there are obstacles.

 

[fatbeard]

You'd be stupid to trade Castro prior to Baez actually proving himself in the majors. His AAA is obviously looking good but he hit well prior to being called up last year too. Full disclosure my opinion on Baez is he's unlikely to ever be a star and some would suggested I'm biased toward him though I don't really see that.

But Starlin Castro isn't a star either. Not production-wise, at least. He's essentially the same player he was in 2011 only a bit better defensively. Nice avg, low to decent OBP, and maybe 10-15 HRs a year, maybe average defense and a nice handful of Ks to go with it. Unlike Rizzo, Castro has never shown that there's a "next step" for him to take. He's already at his ceiling, IMO. To move Baez in favor of that makes little sense to me, at least in the context of a longer-term plan. Baez's hit/power/defense tools are just too good to lock down SS in favor of Castro, IMO.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I like Castro. Most here know I defend him. If trading him brings Thor, I am all for it. Of course since he is slumping, perhaps the Cubs have to include a prospect. Do they really need to hold up Vill at 3B? What is his trade value?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I like Castro. Most here know I defend him. If trading him brings Thor, I am all for it. Of course since he is slumping, perhaps the Cubs have to include a prospect. Do they really need to hold up Vill at 3B? What is his trade value?

If I were to guess I'd say the Cubs would not throw a prospect into that trade. If the rumors are to be believed, and I'm of the opinion they are, Castro was offered to teh Mets in the offseason for Syndergaard and deGrom. The Mets balked. For the Cubs to now trade Castro and a prospect for Syndergaard doesn't seem like these guys' MO. I think if it works its way back to Castro it needs to be a larger deal. Maybe Castro and McKinney for Syndergaard and Rafeal Montero, a hard throwing rightie with some concerns. When this gets brought up people immediately start taking about how Tulowitzki is a better fit for NY than Castro but really is he? Often injured, 5 years older and has a big contract which Sandy Alderson is unlikely to pick up. I think these teams can come up with a deal but it may take a while and one or both of them could have seen their fortunes change by then. Still until that happens I think something is likely.

 

[CSF77]

But Starlin Castro isn't a star either. Not production-wise, at least. He's essentially the same player he was in 2011 only a bit better defensively. Nice avg, low to decent OBP, and maybe 10-15 HRs a year, maybe average defense and a nice handful of Ks to go with it. Unlike Rizzo, Castro has never shown that there's a "next step" for him to take. He's already at his ceiling, IMO. To move Baez in favor of that makes little sense to me, at least in the context of a longer-term plan. Baez's hit/power/defense tools are just too good to lock down SS in favor of Castro, IMO.

Castro's ISO is .070 His career AVG is .122. His bounce back year last year was .146. His worst year .102. So for some reason he has lost most of his power.

It is not his HR's it is his 2B's. He is at 4 2B in 190 AB's. 1 in 47 AB's. Career Avg: 1 2B in 18.93 AB's. So ya he in not hitting the same at all.