General trade discussion

[chibears55]

Seeing how good wada been pitching since his recall had me thinking of a possibility of Hendricks being available in a trade now...

Maybe a team like the Phillies would be interested in him (25 and 5+ yrs of control ) with a lighter prospect package for Hamels

 

[2323]

If I'm the Mets, it would take more than Castro.

Btw, I wonder to what extent Harvey is complicating thus.

 

[beckdawg]

Seeing how good wada been pitching since his recall had me thinking of a possibility of Hendricks being available in a trade now...

Maybe a team like the Phillies would be interested in him (25 and 5+ yrs of control ) with a lighter prospect package for Hamels

Wada is in his mid 30's. He's not exactly a long term option.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

One fallacy that keeps getting repeated is that AA guys like Vogelbach, if they're traded, won't be options for call up for their big league teams. You have to remember that the Cubs are one of about 10 teams in baseball that use AAA as a final development stage. The other 20 call up their players directly from AA with AAA serving as organizational depth and a landing spot for guys who are sent down to get more work. If Vogelbach were to go in a trade, particularly to a team that needs DH help now, it wouldn't be a stretch to see him in MLB this year. That's not to say he's the key player in a trade package as he likely won't be, but he could be an immediate option for a AL club. That makes for more of a sweeter than you would think.

The other thing that gets repeated a lot around her is that Carl Edwards Jr. (Formerly CJ) is likely trade bait. I seriously doubt it unless two pitchers come back in the trade he was involved in. By almost all accounts the Cubs really, really like this kid and think he has TOR potential, other scouts and observers question that which says to me that the Cubs are unlikely to include him in a deal because the his value to them is higher than his trade value. That doesn't seem like this FO's MO but of course you never say never. He didn't look good in his first AAA outing but if he pitches well going forward there's no doubt he'll be up to help that bullpen and some point this year and maybe get a shot at the rotation next year. He's part of their plans for now but of course plans can change.

 

[beckdawg]

One fallacy that keeps getting repeated is that AA guys like Vogelbach, if they're traded, won't be options for call up for their big league teams. You have to remember that the Cubs are one of about 10 teams in baseball that use AAA as a final development stage. The other 20 call up their players directly from AA with AAA serving as organizational depth and a landing spot for guys who are sent down to get more work. If Vogelbach were to go in a trade, particularly to a team that needs DH help now, it wouldn't be a stretch to see him in MLB this year. That's not to say he's the key player in a trade package as he likely won't be, but he could be an immediate option for a AL club. That makes for more of a sweeter than you would think.

The other thing that gets repeated a lot around her is that Carl Edwards Jr. (Formerly CJ) is likely trade bait. I seriously doubt it unless two pitchers come back in the trade he was involved in. By almost all accounts the Cubs really, really like this kid and think he has TOR potential, other scouts and observers question that which says to me that the Cubs are unlikely to include him in a deal because the his value to them is higher than his trade value. That doesn't seem like this FO's MO but of course you never say never. He didn't look good in his first AAA outing but if he pitches well going forward there's no doubt he'll be up to help that bullpen and some point this year and maybe get a shot at the rotation next year. He's part of their plans for now but of course plans can change.

While the first paragraph isn't entirely inaccurate, I do feel you're making the AA -> MLB jump sound far more common than it is. You're basically only talking about super star level players who make that jump. As for Edwards, if he's the player someone wants for a deal you feel makes your team better you trade him. At the end of the day the reason the players are with the cubs now is the front office saw something in them that they liked more than other teams. That's not to suggest that he's actively trying to trade Edwards but then I honestly doubt he's actively shopping anyone in the minors.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

While the first paragraph isn't entirely inaccurate, I do feel you're making the AA -> MLB jump sound far more common than it is. You're basically only talking about super star level players who make that jump. As for Edwards, if he's the player someone wants for a deal you feel makes your team better you trade him. At the end of the day the reason the players are with the cubs now is the front office saw something in them that they liked more than other teams. That's not to suggest that he's actively trying to trade Edwards but then I honestly doubt he's actively shopping anyone in the minors.

I should have clarified in saying top prospects. Certainly there are guys in the organizations that use AA as a springboard to MLB that send guys to AAA who do make it the bigs.

As far as Edwards, sure he could go in trade but it would be a trade that brings back more arms than they're letting go and one of them would likely be a rotation piece. Both my points were just food for thought more than anything else.

In any case June is going to clarify a lot of things. Just 2 off days in a month that features series with some of the best in baseball in the Tigers, Dodgers, Twins and Cardinals. If the Cubs are going to be in this thing they can't wet the bed against the likes of the Marlins, Reds and Indians like they did with the Brewers and Diamondbacks in May and they're going to have to win some matchups against the top teams that they probably aren't supposed to. If they can do those two things the trades will start to come more in focus as we head into July.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Interesting piece by Rob Bradford on Philly altering its approach to trading Cole Hamels. By agreeing to take on part of the money Amaro Jr. seems to be opening up the field of potential suitors, or maybe he's figuring that the most likely ones in terms of prospects, including the Cubs and Dodgers, just aren't going to part with those kinds of assets. Bradford still includes Boston in the mix though while MLB trade rumors speculates on the likes of Houston or even the Twins getting involved. Frankly both of those teams make some real sense as landing spots for Hamels as they have the prospects and if Philly eats part of the money they have room at that end too. Both are at the very beginning of competition windows and a stud lefty would anchor either of their pitching staffs for the next few years. I've been saying he's going to Houston for some time but if he goes to Minnesota that makes the AL Central one of the most interesting divisions in the game. The bottom line for me is that this expanded market should shut down Cubs rumors involving Hamels unless of course St. Louis gets in the mix.

Here's the link:

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/bo...ach-with-cole-hamels-trade-changing-slightly/

and MLB Trade Rumors take:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/...-on-more-of-cole-hamels-salary-in-trades.html

 

[chibears55]

Wada is in his mid 30's. He's not exactly a long term option.

I understand that..

Im talking about to finish out this season with......

Cubs would have Hamels Lester and Arrieta going forward .

Hammel signed thru 2016 with an option for 17..

They have some young arms in system to replace wada or they can sign or trade for a bottom of rotation...


Makes sense if your the cubs to see if phils would be interested in Hendricks as a piece in a deal if it could lighten the prospect load..

 

[chibears55]

@Ken_Rosenthal: The great free-agent pitching class of 2015-16 might not be so great after all. Column:... fb.me/4oLuo5R62

good example as to what i was saying in offseason..
You cant 100% count on future FA pitchers to be available, healthy, and still pitch as good as the years before..

That why if they can work out a reasonable deal to get a Hamels or someone like him , you do it..

 

[beckdawg]

I understand that..

Im talking about to finish out this season with......

Cubs would have Hamels Lester and Arrieta going forward .

Hammel signed thru 2016 with an option for 17..

They have some young arms in system to replace wada or they can sign or trade for a bottom of rotation...


Makes sense if your the cubs to see if phils would be interested in Hendricks as a piece in a deal if it could lighten the prospect load..

I personally don't feel like Hamels is the answer. My view is you're paying an absurd amount in terms of prospects for likely 2 years of a legitimate top 5-10 pitcher in the NL followed by more of a #2 after that. I mean if you're giving up say Almora and Hendricks then sure that's probably a worth while deal but Philly isn't going to do that. It's almost assuredly going to cost Baez plus more especially considering they don't seem all that keen on him as opposed to Russell or Castro.

More importantly, I just don't view Hamels as this franchise altering player. He's a solid pitcher but he's not Pedro in his prime dominant or Randy Johnson if you prefer. I guess my point here is that while Hamels is available now I'm fairly certain some other pitcher at or near his quality will be available over the next 2 years. So why the rush to get him? The cubs don't have to win a title this year and I think anyone being reasonable would suggest their chances even with Hamels aren't amazing. They are likely too young to come up big in high leverage situations which given they are hitting like .220 with RISP shows this. On the other hand, you're potentially talking about giving up a package of young players for Hamels who could change a franchise. While some of those players are redundant, they still offer you other options.

It's also worth noting that the cubs pitching hasn't been that bad. In terms of fWAR they are the 5th best group of starters behind the Nationals, A's, Indians, and Pirates. They have the 6th best ERA and FIP, the 3rd best k/9 and the 2nd best bb/9. Obviously you can always get better but unless they are getting a solid deal or a long term fixture I just don't see the pressing need. If the team simply decides they have to have a guy I want them going after someone who's likely off limits or close to it. Gray is the obvious first name to pop up. The way I view it is you're going to give up something like Baez + Vogelbach + minor pieces for Hamels why not give up Baez + Vogelbach + Almora(or whomever) + minor pieces for something younger and better.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

@Ken_Rosenthal: The great free-agent pitching class of 2015-16 might not be so great after all. Column:... fb.me/4oLuo5R62

good example as to what i was saying in offseason..
You cant 100% count on future FA pitchers to be available, healthy, and still pitch as good as the years before..

That why if they can work out a reasonable deal to get a Hamels or someone like him , you do it..

Amaro isn't budging on the kind of prospects he wants but he is talking about picking up some of Hamels' contract which widens the field. I just don't see the Cubs giving up those kind of assets, but maybe I'm wrong. I've thought Houston has made the most sense for a while now and now with Philly willing to help on the contract makes even more sense. As I said in another post the Twins might make some sense as well with both those teams loaded in prospects but relatively cash poor.

To your main point though yes, I've been saying all along they need to trade for a pitcher. I'd prefer a Syndergaard or Sonny Gray but there might be other names out there. If Hamels was there for the right price, yes you go for him. I just don't see that price being right.

 

[chibears55]

I personally don't feel like Hamels is the answer. My view is you're paying an absurd amount in terms of prospects for likely 2 years of a legitimate top 5-10 pitcher in the NL followed by more of a #2 after that. I mean if you're giving up say Almora and Hendricks then sure that's probably a worth while deal but Philly isn't going to do that. It's almost assuredly going to cost Baez plus more especially considering they don't seem all that keen on him as opposed to Russell or Castro.

More importantly, I just don't view Hamels as this franchise altering player. He's a solid pitcher but he's not Pedro in his prime dominant or Randy Johnson if you prefer. I guess my point here is that while Hamels is available now I'm fairly certain some other pitcher at or near his quality will be available over the next 2 years. So why the rush to get him? The cubs don't have to win a title this year and I think anyone being reasonable would suggest their chances even with Hamels aren't amazing. They are likely too young to come up big in high leverage situations which given they are hitting like .220 with RISP shows this. On the other hand, you're potentially talking about giving up a package of young players for Hamels who could change a franchise. While some of those players are redundant, they still offer you other options.

It's also worth noting that the cubs pitching hasn't been that bad. In terms of fWAR they are the 5th best group of starters behind the Nationals, A's, Indians, and Pirates. They have the 6th best ERA and FIP, the 3rd best k/9 and the 2nd best bb/9. Obviously you can always get better but unless they are getting a solid deal or a long term fixture I just don't see the pressing need. If the team simply decides they have to have a guy I want them going after someone who's likely off limits or close to it. Gray is the obvious first name to pop up. The way I view it is you're going to give up something like Baez + Vogelbach + minor pieces for Hamels why not give up Baez + Vogelbach + Almora(or whomever) + minor pieces for something younger and better.

Just keep in mind...

If their going to go after a young(er) starter with upside, then their going to have to give up a few prospects with upsides to get him..

Mets or whomever aren't going to give up a young stud unless they get equal quality or better in return. .


Getting Hamels and his money will be less then what they would have to pay for price or any top FA available this off season. .

I dont think the phillies will get that huge return their looking for.. i think it will be in the reasonable range..

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Just keep in mind...

If their going to go after a young(er) starter with upside, then their going to have to give up a few prospects with upsides to get him..

Mets or whomever aren't going to give up a young stud unless they get equal quality or better in return. .


Getting Hamels and his money will be less then what they would have to pay for price or any top FA available this off season. .

I dont think the phillies will get that huge return their looking for.. i think it will be in the reasonable range..

See that's where I disagree with you. I think the prospect cost for a young starter will be very close to the prospect cost for Hamels. Amaro is not backing down on that which is why he's widening the field of potential trade partners. The money doesn't matter to the Cubs but the prospects do because they know they need boatloads of arms over the next two year (not all starters btw) and they don't draft them high. Those other clubs have similar prospects to deal with and if the money is reduced they could be potential fits for Philly.

 

[chibears55]

Amaro isn't budging on the kind of prospects he wants but he is talking about picking up some of Hamels' contract which widens the field.

That goes to show Amaro not getting anywhere close to the deal he looking for, so he willing to eat money to get a better return. ..

Yes it widens the field but teams with both money and prospects still have the advantage. ..

Im a firm believer that when a team trades a veteran on good terms, that the GM will try and trade him to a team the player wants to play for as long as the return is reasonably close to what the GM wants..

So, as an example. .. if Hamels tells Amaro his preferences are Redsox, Cardinals, and Cubs 3 teams known to be interested. . Then Amaro would listen to and accept best deal closer to what he wants if no other teams outside those 3 are offering better..
That just how i think it goes down sometimes..

 

[TC in Mississippi]

That goes to show Amaro not getting anywhere close to the deal he looking for, so he willing to eat money to get a better return. ..

Yes it widens the field but teams with both money and prospects still have the advantage. ..

Im a firm believer that when a team trades a veteran on good terms, that the GM will try and trade him to a team the player wants to play for as long as the return is reasonably close to what the GM wants..

So, as an example. .. if Hamels tells Amaro his preferences are Redsox, Cardinals, and Cubs 3 teams known to be interested. . Then Amaro would listen to and accept best deal closer to what he wants if no other teams outside those 3 are offering better..
That just how i think it goes down sometimes..

You could be right. If the Cardinals do start to show interest in Hamels the Cubs need to be involved to some extent. I don't think they're going to sniff the Division title this year but you still don't want Hamels in St. Louis for the next 3 1/2-4 1/2 years. So far the Cards don't seem interested and frankly don't necessarily have the prospects to get it done. Boston is still paying attention but so far won't budge on Swihart or Betts and Houston is definitely interested, has more than enough prospects for a deal and offers a similar opportunity for Hamels as the Cubs would to get in at the start of a contention window. Whatever goes down it will be interesting.

 

[beckdawg]

Getting Hamels and his money will be less then what they would have to pay for price or any top FA available this off season.

I don't think the Phillies will take substantially less. I mean like I said with Gray or someone like him you probably have to give up a third big name prospect. But I don't think Baez and a couple of 10-20 prospects in the cubs system gets the job done for Hamels. Too many teams need pitching right now and arguably teams that are more win now than the cubs. For example, the Cards are obviously in a hole after losing Wainwright. The twins lead the AL central and have basically Gibson and Pelfrey who are potentially iffy choices and guys like Nolassco, Phil Hughes and Trevor May with a 4.5-5 ERA. The Royals are 2nd in the AL central and have similar issues. The Angels and Astros could use him. The Giants REALLY could use him. And of course you can never count out NYY and LAD.

The cubs arguably could offer the best of any team for Hamels but like I said I don't think they need him as much as these other teams do and I don't think they will want a bidding war for him. I think it's easy to forget just how good Hammel has been for the cubs. He was 8-5 with a 2.98 ERA 3.19 FIP 8.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 last season with the cubs in 17 starts/108.2 IP. This season he is 3-1 with a 2.98 ERA 2.96 FIP 8.65 k/9 and a 1.0 bb/9 in 9 starts and 60.1 IP. If you compare that to Hamels, he's been a better pitcher with the cubs than Hamels has of late or at least pretty similar.

In other words, Hamels is a pretty pricey player for essentially your #4 starter be it himself or if you move Hammel down a rung. When Hendircks was struggling some maybe you make the argument it's worth it but he's been substantially better of late. To me if you're going to make any pitching move I would argue you should look to get a dominant bullpen piece. With Wada and Hendricks you wont always be getting 6-7 innings out of them. But if you can get Ramirez back and add another guy whose pretty lights out then you can essentially allow those guys to use themselves up thru 5 if they don't have their best stuff that day and then bring in a dominant pen a la the Royals last year. You then talk about potentially Edwards as a back end guy as well later in the season and it opens up some options for you.

 

[chibears55]

You could be right. If the Cardinals do start to show interest in Hamels the Cubs need to be involved to some extent. I don't think they're going to sniff the Division title this year but you still don't want Hamels in St. Louis for the next 3 1/2-4 1/2 years. So far the Cards don't seem interested and frankly don't necessarily have the prospects to get it done. Boston is still paying attention but so far won't budge on Swihart or Betts and Houston is definitely interested, has more than enough prospects for a deal and offers a similar opportunity for Hamels as the Cubs would to get in at the start of a contention window. Whatever goes down it will be interesting.

I forgot about Houston. ..
Thats the team that could benefit from Amaro eating contract and may be reason why he came out and said that..

If Houston still winning come July, they definitely could be major players for him...

 

[chibears55]

In other words, Hamels is a pretty pricey player for essentially your #4 starter

You think Hamels would be their 4th starter ?????
That explains it then...

A team will have control of Hamels for 4 1/2 yrs at age 31-35 at 23.5 mil per...

If it cost 2 or 3 good prospects, it would be worth it

i think most forget that the team on the field now are young and besides upgrading on Cogs and Fowler, everyone else is basically young and blocking prospects. ..

 

[beckdawg]

You think Hamels would be their 4th starter ?????

Is he going to pitch in front of Lester or Arrieta? Doubtful. As I mentioned Hammel has essentially played as well as he has. So even if you put Hamels at 3 and Hammel at 4 he's essentially replacing your #4 starter.

A team will have control of Hamels for 4 1/2 yrs at age 31-35 at 23.5 mil per...

Again, you're paying $23.5 mil for a #3 starter even if you place him in front of Hammel. Also you're forgetting that they haven't yet locked up Arrieta long term who isn't going to be cheap.

Lester's owed roughly $25 mil for the length of his deal per season. I'm guessing Arrieta probably gets north of $20 mil per. Hamels would make them paying roughly $70 mil per season for 3 pitchers. Their entire team right now is making roughly $116.7 mil. That's a lot of money to dump on three players.

 

[chibears55]

Is he going to pitch in front of Lester or Arrieta? Doubtful. As I mentioned Hammel has essentially played as well as he has. So even if you put Hamels at 3 and Hammel at 4 he's essentially replacing your #4 starter.

He a top of rotation type starter...

it doesn't matter if he pitches before, in the middle of, or after Lester and Arrieta. . All that matters is him picking up the ball every 5th day. especially for this season ..

Opening day next year, i guarantee you it would be between him and Lester for 1 and 2 and that not dissing Arrieta. .

But my guess it would come down to who Maddon felt deserve it..

What it boils down to is the cubs could have a solid 1 thru 3