Heard something just now on "The Score" that didn't make sense....

[Flacco4Prez]

The thing is, its too perfect a deal, if it has and legs.

Something tells me if Theo could land Shelby Miller for Castro he would then trade Shark for a bunch of prospects and have yet another hole in the rotation for the sake of accumulating more prospects.


CHAMPS!!!

We would still be upgrading the rotation by replacing Shark with Miller. We would still need another guy to put at the top of the rotation, but it doesn't look like Shark will become that guy. He seems like a 3/4 on a WS contender. I would be ok trading Shark to get an elite pitching prospect in return.

I have no idea why people are sleeping on Olt. This guy was a highly ranked prospect before his eye issues and if he corrected this problem, hes a pretty damn good prospect. This guys as close to Scott Rolen as the Cubs are gonna get. If it means moving Bryant to the outfield, well, that's one less hole for Theo to trade away players for more prospects for. I like the way Theos been building this team, but enoughs enough already.


CHAMPS!!!

I don't know if people sleeping on him, but he also has the ability to play OF. By trading Castro, that allows 2 of the top Cubs prospects to play their natural position as opposed to 0. I don't understand the argument that we don't know if Baez can handle SS. That's his natural position and it's not like Castro is a good defender himself. I like Castro, but if we have the opportunity to make this trade I would be disappointed if we didn't

 

[KBIB]

If they got Miller then I would try to trade Shark for Tyler Skaggs in Azl.
.

I like this line of thinking.


CHAMPS!!!

 

[KBIB]

We would still be upgrading the rotation by replacing Shark with Miller. We would still need another guy to put at the top of the rotation, but it doesn't look like Shark will become that guy. He seems like a 3/4 on a WS contender. I would be ok trading Shark to get an elite pitching prospect in return.

Agreed. So long as Shark returned a MLB ready pitcher I would be on board.

I don't know if people sleeping on him, but he also has the ability to play OF. By trading Castro, that allows 2 of the top Cubs prospects to play their natural position as opposed to 0. I don't understand the argument that we don't know if Baez can handle SS. That's his natural position and it's not like Castro is a good defender himself. I like Castro, but if we have the opportunity to make this trade I would be disappointed if we didn't

Well, it just seems many are over looking the guy on account of Bryant, which is understandable considering what Bryant has been doing so far in the AFL or whatever it is he is destroying. I like Olt, and defensively he is pretty damn good at third. If the worst case scenario is having Olt take his lumps at third until Bryant gets the call I would be fine with it because of his defense. Unless Theo gets some ready arms, this team isn't gonna do anything next year anyway.


CHAMPS!!!

 

[SilenceS]

Baez played center most of his life. He played shortstop his senior year on. So, its not really his natural position. Bryant plays third, but also doesn't project to anything more then average there. He has good speed when going and a strong arm and body type made for right field.

Also, people do realize that Shelby Miller numbers are very comparable to Sharks besides ERA. People think he isn't very good, but Miller straight up for Castro is gold. Miller wasn't even used by the Cardinals in the playoffs. There is something to that. Cubs fans do this every year. They freak out when someone has a bad year. Crucify them to get rid of them and then the next year when they bounced back. They are the best player ever and they were always behind them etc. etc. etc.

 

[CSF77]

We would still be upgrading the rotation by replacing Shark with Miller. We would still need another guy to put at the top of the rotation, but it doesn't look like Shark will become that guy. He seems like a 3/4 on a WS contender. I would be ok trading Shark to get an elite pitching prospect in return.

He is still 23 YO first full year and those numbers are the best on the team. He will get better as he matures.

 

[CSF77]

Also, people do realize that Shelby Miller numbers are very comparable to Sharks besides ERA. People think he isn't very good, but Miller straight up for Castro is gold. Miller wasn't even used by the Cardinals in the playoffs. There is something to that. Cubs fans do this every year. They freak out when someone has a bad year. Crucify them to get rid of them and then the next year when they bounced back. They are the best player ever and they were always behind them etc. etc. etc.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/base...cle_8ccfd63f-ab6c-592d-b550-c4575400ddb3.html


BOSTON • The Cardinals put rookie Shelby Miller in a role they never hoped to use this postseason, and, in self-fulfilling fashion, got their wish.

Miller, a 15-game winner during the regular season, went so long without pitching in these playoffs that Cardinals manager Mike Matheny conceded before Wednesday night’s loss that the righty was unlikely to pitch at all in the World Series. Miller was put on the active roster as a long-relief option, but Matheny said only an extreme situation would bring Miller out of the team-imposed mothballs.

“It would have to be a situation where we were pushing into a tight spot, and that’s just not fair to him without having much action to this point,” Matheny said. “He’s been exactly what we’ve needed up to this point. Fortunately we haven’t needed that long outing. He’s that safety valve for us at the end of the game, and we had a couple games that were right there, just about ready to go. We were fortunate to have a pitcher of his ability sitting there, waiting if that happened.

“The unfortunate side of that,” Matheny added, “is you sit and grow cold.”

Matheny used starter Lance Lynn in long relief in Game 6, further pushing Miller down the depth chart. Lynn did not record an out in his fourth-inning insertion into Game 6.

Miller warmed up with one out remaining in the Cardinals season.

He did not appear in the game.

CARDS TALK TOPIC: Is Shelby Miller hurt? Why not play him?

Miller, 22, pitched one inning this postseason and did not throw a pitch in either of the final two rounds. He pitched 3 1/3 innings in last year’s playoffs as an injury replacement. The one inning of work — during which he allowed a solo homer — was his only appearance in 35 days. Miller did throw a simulated game at Busch Stadium to help prepare Allen Craig for the World Series.

By stashing Miller on the roster under glass — in case of emergency — the Cardinals effectively played with a 23-man roster for the NL championship series and World Series. Backup catcher Tony Cruz also didn’t appear. Miller became the backup starter.

General manager John Mozeliak said “second-guessing the roster doesn’t have traction.”

“His role was always that insurance,” Mozeliak said. “There were a lot of question marks as we were going into this on exactly how our rotation was going to unfold. The fact that everybody has stepped up changed the dynamic. Having the extra pitcher when your starters are going five, six, seven innings sort of neutralizes that need.”

Only once in the Cardinals’ 16 playoff games before Wednesday night at Fenway Park did the starting pitcher go less than five innings. That one game, Game 2 of the NLDS, was the only one in which Miller pitched.

The Cardinals were hyper-aware of the innings load on Miller and fellow rookie Michael Wacha, who started Wednesday’s Game 6 against Boston. Miller made 31 starts for the Cardinals and will appear on many National League Rookie of the Year ballots. He threw 174 1/3 innings. Wacha, who had stints in Class AAA and the bullpen to limit his workload this past summer, entered Wednesday’s game with 176 1/3 innings pitched this season.

Miller insisted that his elbow and his shoulder were fine, and that he hasn’t been limited in his workouts or preparation during the postseason. Miller was not told of any innings limit that he reached.

“There could be something that I don’t know about going on,” Miller said. “Maybe I’ll have some understanding in the offseason. I think it’s more they’re just looking out for me, innings-wise. I don’t feel fatigued. I don’t feel tired. I feel really good. There is probably some answer that I don’t know about. I’ll wait to hear it.”

The Cardinals presented Miller’s bullpen assignment in the first round as a matchup matter, related in part to the struggles he had against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Wacha also leapfrogged him with the near no-hitter he threw in his final start of the regular season. Miller saw his walk rate climb and strikeout rate shrink in October. Asked Wednesday if this October could have played out differently for Miller had the first-round opponent been a team other than Pittsburgh, Matheny said “hypotheticals I don’t think are productive for us.”

The Cardinals have stressed that Miller shouldn’t read into how his season ended and what that means for how next season will start.

“He’s knows his importance to this club,” Mozeliak said. “More importantly he knows his future importance to this club. He was one of our top pitchers all year. He did, toward the end, have some inconsistencies. He’s still an elite-type pitcher. We saw that at times this summer. …

“They had him lined up for an emergency,” Mozeliak concluded. “That emergency never happened.”

EXTRA BASES

The Cardinals continued to marvel at the temperament of their traveling party during the seven-hour delay Tuesday when trying to leave St. Louis for Boston. All of the people flying with the team – from front office members to players, coaches to players’ children – remained on the grounded plane until a new one came for them. The Cardinals passed the time by watching movies, reading and scanning Twitter for jokes about their predicament. Joe Kelly said the younger players took turns playing babysitter. “We enjoyed it,” he said. “Don’t want to do it all the time, but it wasn’t that bad.” ... The Cardinals closed their offices Wednesday so that as many as 200 employees could travel to Boston for Game 6. Ownership arranged the trip, hotel rooms, and a party at Boston’s House of Blues for staff members. A similar trip was provided employees in 2011 when they traveled for Game 3 of the World Series in Texas – the night Albert Pujols hit three home runs.


Derrick Goold covers the Cardinals and Major League Baseball for The Post-Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @dgoold or on Facebook at Facebook.com/BirdLandPD

 

[CSF77]

http://interact.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=990607&p=13048085#p13048085


Post Is Shelby Miller Hurt? If not, Play Him
Posted: 28 Oct 2013 14:41 pm
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I just don't get it. The Cards run Joe Kelly and Lynn out to pitch when Shelby Miller had a better record than either one of them. Did he :!: off the top brass by being a Type A guy and saying he could beat anyone? They could have brought him in during the start of the 6th last night and probably kept the game close since none of the Red Sox had an at bat against him. If they don't play him during the last two games then they should trade him because they don't have enough respect for him to give the Cards a good chance to win the World Series.

WiFFLE ChAMp
Post Re: Is Shelby Miller Hurt? If not, Play Him
Posted: 28 Oct 2013 14:51 pm
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this is getting old.. they think Lynn and Kelly have a better chance obviously..

right now.. it would be pretty risky to play him after not playing the entire post season..

I mean he could come in for long relief if the game got out of control but not sure why couldn't of been used in the situation last night instead of Mannes for example.. he is a strike out guy which Mannes is not and is exactly what we needed last night.

he is obviously hurt or something... we don't know everything.


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TripleCrown
Post Re: Is Shelby Miller Hurt? If not, Play Him
Posted: 28 Oct 2013 15:27 pm
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If he's hurt why is he taking up roster space?


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Quiet Goes the Don
Post Re: Is Shelby Miller Hurt? If not, Play Him
Posted: 28 Oct 2013 15:48 pm
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I don't know why they would think Lynn and Kelly have a better chance.

Miller pitched 187 innings.
Kelly: 124
Lynn: 201.2

ERA:

Miller: 3.06
Kelly: 2.69
Lynn: 3.97

WHIP:

Miller: 1.206
Kelly: 1.355
Lynn: 1.314

H/9:

Miller: 7.9
Kelly: 9.0
Lynn: 8.4

BB/9:

Miller: 3.0
Kelly: 3.2
Lynn: 3.4

K/9:

Miller: 8.8
Kelly: 5.7
Lynn: 8.8

HR/9:

Miller: 1.0
Kelly: .7
Lynn: .6

K/BB:

Miller: 2.96
Kelly: 1.8
Lynn: 2.61

BAA:

Miller: .234
Kelly: .259
Lynn: .252

OBA:

Miller: .209
Kelly: .326
Lynn: .327

OPS Against:

Miller: .670
Kelly: .694
Lynn: .701

I mean obviously I don't want Miller to start at this point. It's been too long. But this notion that somehow Lynn and Kelly were better options, at the beginning, was nonsense. They should have just announced that he was done and used the roster space elsewhere. For an organization that seems so smart, this is hard to understand.

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sept79
Post Re: Is Shelby Miller Hurt? If not, Play Him
Posted: 28 Oct 2013 16:01 pm
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I strongly suspect that Matheny and the coaching staff have more confidence in Kelly/Lynn over Miller. I value their judgement over the stats and opinions espoused by various posters of Cards Talk. I mean no offense, but MM and coaches are closer to the situation than we are in our comfy armchairs.


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markg
Post Re: Is Shelby Miller Hurt? If not, Play Him
Posted: 28 Oct 2013 16:06 pm
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Quiet Goes the Don wrote:
They should have just announced that he was done and used the roster space elsewhere. For an organization that seems so smart, this is hard to understand.

I'm not sure what's more puzzling, the non-use of Miller during the post season or the lack of news coverage by the media on this topic (unless I'm missing it).

Except for us fans that keep asking about Miller, it seems to be a non-story for the journalists.

Mark


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OldRed48
Post Re: Is Shelby Miller Hurt? If not, Play Him
Posted: 28 Oct 2013 16:13 pm
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If the Cards don't want to pitch him because of his high season pitch count, then why have him on the roster? Might as well put Lyons or Freeman on the roster. Lynn has pitched more than 200 innings and it shows. Joe Kelly is a time bomb ready to go off with the Sox hitting him all over the park because he isn't aggressive after he gets ahead in the count. Both bullpens have been overworked and it will depend on who gets lucky when they get called in.


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Klydon
Post Re: Is Shelby Miller Hurt? If not, Play Him
Posted: 28 Oct 2013 16:14 pm
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Miller has the better body of work for the season.

Miller does NOT have the better body of work coming down the stretch.

It could be argued by the end of September that he had been their 5th best starter for the month. Combine that with a pile of innings and a few other issues (strike out rate for September was 4 something per 9 when it had been at least 9 per 9 every other month) and it means Miller isn't one of your best 4 of the moment.

None of the other starters have tanked enough during the playoffs to justify replacing them with Miller either. Miller is on the roster as insurance. If he winds up pitching, it means something didn't go well.


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stape
Post Re: Is Shelby Miller Hurt? If not, Play Him
Posted: 28 Oct 2013 16:24 pm
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JMHO but I believe this is the Cardinals way of handling a situation like Strasburg--only not announcing to the entire baseball world the player will be shutdown at a certain point. I think he reached the innings point they were shooting for, and Miller was not the same pitcher late in the year. I think they have kept him just in case a starter got blown up in the 2nd inning or something, but they otherwise were probably not going to use him. It allowed them to keep the option out there, all the while knowing they probably were going to stay away from him if they could. JMO but basically making him an insurance policy.


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Quiet Goes the Don
Post Re: Is Shelby Miller Hurt? If not, Play Him
Posted: 28 Oct 2013 17:33 pm
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Klydon wrote:
Miller has the better body of work for the season.

Miller does NOT have the better body of work coming down the stretch.

It could be argued by the end of September that he had been their 5th best starter for the month. Combine that with a pile of innings and a few other issues (strike out rate for September was 4 something per 9 when it had been at least 9 per 9 every other month) and it means Miller isn't one of your best 4 of the moment.

None of the other starters have tanked enough during the playoffs to justify replacing them with Miller either. Miller is on the roster as insurance. If he winds up pitching, it means something didn't go well.


I'll concede August. But in five September starts Miller was 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA. He only gave up 2 homers in those five starts, after giving up 7 in August. The biggest change that I saw was that his K/9 and K/BB fell, considerably, which is frequently evidence of injury or a tired arm, which is what I suspect. Lynn's September was pretty good at 2.12 in five starts (though his August was much worse than Shelby's). His K rate actually climbed a bit in September, which could be statistical noise or it could be that he got over whatever was troubling his mechanics in August. Kelly's August and September was much better than either Miller's or Lynn's. Again, this isn't an argument that Miller should have been starting ahead of Lynn. It's mostly an argument against the way they created the roster.

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Last edited by Quiet Goes the Don on 28 Oct 2013 18:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Klydon
Post Re: Is Shelby Miller Hurt? If not, Play Him
Posted: 28 Oct 2013 17:56 pm
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Miller also pitched less than 30 innings for those 5 starts (less than 6 innings a start). You hit on a couple of things with Miller that anyone should be concerned with and that was the strike out rate was very unlike Miller.

Lynn is pretty much hated by the fan base and is one of the big time whipping boys right now. They don't want any part of him and his name always comes up in trade talks. The facts say something different when it comes to his performance, but since he is a whipping boy and a "headcase", it won't matter as people call for someone; anyone, to replace him.

The other issue is if the Cards have a innings limit on Shelby, he may not have had enough left to cover a deep playoff run. I am sure they looked at his record vs both the Pirates and Dodgers and this factored in the decision.

I have no doubt that if Lynn bombed, they would have heavily considered turning to Miller, but that hasn't happen for the most part, so Miller has been in standby mode.


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Quiet Goes the Don
Post Re: Is Shelby Miller Hurt? If not, Play Him
Posted: 28 Oct 2013 18:10 pm
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Klydon wrote:
Miller also pitched less than 30 innings for those 5 starts (less than 6 innings a start). You hit on a couple of things with Miller that anyone should be concerned with and that was the strike out rate was very unlike Miller.

Lynn is pretty much hated by the fan base and is one of the big time whipping boys right now. They don't want any part of him and his name always comes up in trade talks. The facts say something different when it comes to his performance, but since he is a whipping boy and a "headcase", it won't matter as people call for someone; anyone, to replace him.

The other issue is if the Cards have a innings limit on Shelby, he may not have had enough left to cover a deep playoff run. I am sure they looked at his record vs both the Pirates and Dodgers and this factored in the decision.

I have no doubt that if Lynn bombed, they would have heavily considered turning to Miller, but that hasn't happen for the most part, so Miller has been in standby mode.



Good post.

Honestly, if folks think back I was the loudest and most obnoxious voice out there that Miller ought to be shut down. I'm (not so secretly) glad he's not being used. I just don't see the need for the folly concerning a roster spot, for a team that has next to no bench, an injured Allen Craig, an ineffective Jay, and two guys (Freese and Kozma) who look completely defenseless at the plate. (Jay will at least take a few pitches and has a good eye on the outside part of the plate, and DD will try and work a walk by fouling off close pitches).

Mozeliak really needed to find us some bench help, somewhere, before all this starter.

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[DewsSox79]

if castro stays he will be what he is: sloppy defender with no power but lots of hits with a low walk total. If he goes to the cards we all know for cubs fans luck he will be the next ozzie smith.

 

[SilenceS]

if castro stays he will be what he is: sloppy defender with no power but lots of hits with a low walk total. If he goes to the cards we all know for cubs fans luck he will be the next ozzie smith.

This is my thing. Castro has world class talent. Every scout and every baseball guy says Castro hasn't even tapped into his potential. Maybe he never even cracks his potential but if you believe in this front office or if you believe in what they are doing then should Castro stay? Shouldn't they do what the Cardinals do? Should they nurture the kids to become what they should. I have never seen the Cardinals cast off someone because they haven't been the best they could be at 23. They believe in there teachings and make it happened. That is why they are successful. I believe giving away Castro for not a big time offer shows no belief in what they are doing. Just my two cents. Oh and I am sorry but I value a guy who can play 162 games over a guy who may pitch 30 plus games a year. Talent wise. Miller does not trump Castro.

 

[Boobaby1]

This is my thing. Castro has world class talent. Every scout and every baseball guy says Castro hasn't even tapped into his potential. Maybe he never even cracks his potential but if you believe in this front office or if you believe in what they are doing then should Castro stay? Shouldn't they do what the Cardinals do? Should they nurture the kids to become what they should. I have never seen the Cardinals cast off someone because they haven't been the best they could be at 23. They believe in there teachings and make it happened. That is why they are successful. I believe giving away Castro for not a big time offer shows no belief in what they are doing. Just my two cents. Oh and I am sorry but I value a guy who can play 162 games over a guy who may pitch 30 plus games a year. Talent wise. Miller does not trump Castro.

To me, it has nothing to do with Castro's talent or lack of talent in areas. IMO, I think that he just does not fit (even though the signed him to a contract) with the Cubs brass as far as a model player and his lapses might be a detriment to the team going forward.

Honestly, does anyone foresee Castro as being any kind of a leader for the youth coming up from the minors? At least with Rizzo, I can see where he would be beneficial in that area.

Though he hasn't had outbursts like Zambrano did, I believe the FO could treat him in the same manner. That is, if the right deal presents itself, they will trade him.

 

[CSF77]

2010 5.7 BB% .347 OBA .346 BABIP
2011 4.9 BB% .341 OBA .344 BABIP
2012 5.2 BB% .323 OBA .315 BABIP
2013 4.3 BB% .284 OBA .290 BABIP

Even at his best .347 OBA is sub par for a 1-2 hitter. Ideal would be in the .400-.360 range for his so called talent. It all ties into his BB% most quality 1-2 hitter run near 10% he runs half of that. So this puts him into the 7-8 hitter box and that is why you sell high before his value drops more.

 

[SilenceS]

2010 5.7 BB% .347 OBA .346 BABIP
2011 4.9 BB% .341 OBA .344 BABIP
2012 5.2 BB% .323 OBA .315 BABIP
2013 4.3 BB% .284 OBA .290 BABIP

Even at his best .347 OBA is sub par for a 1-2 hitter. Ideal would be in the .400-.360 range for his so called talent. It all ties into his BB% most quality 1-2 hitter run near 10% he runs half of that. So this puts him into the 7-8 hitter box and that is why you sell high before his value drops more.

The Cubs wouldn't be selling high. Teams would use last season as leverage.

 

[chibears55]

The Cubs wouldn't be selling high. Teams would use last season as leverage.

hmmm.. pretty much like what some of these fans are doing with the kid..

again im ok with trading castro as long as they get a solid return for him because im going by what he has done his first 3 years more then what he did last year and at being just 23 the chances of him maturing and improving off his pretty good career numbers are very high, and because they have a solid replacement for him at SS with javier baez.

 

[SilenceS]

hmmm.. pretty much like what some of these fans are doing with the kid..

again im ok with trading castro as long as they get a solid return for him because im going by what he has done his first 3 years more then what he did last year and at being just 23 the chances of him maturing and improving off his pretty good career numbers are very high, and because they have a solid replacement for him at SS with javier baez.

The offers circulating have been very underwhelming. That's what I don't think most fans get. Its a what have you done for me lately fan base.

 

[beckdawg]

2010 5.7 BB% .347 OBA .346 BABIP
2011 4.9 BB% .341 OBA .344 BABIP
2012 5.2 BB% .323 OBA .315 BABIP
2013 4.3 BB% .284 OBA .290 BABIP

Even at his best .347 OBA is sub par for a 1-2 hitter. Ideal would be in the .400-.360 range for his so called talent. It all ties into his BB% most quality 1-2 hitter run near 10% he runs half of that. So this puts him into the 7-8 hitter box and that is why you sell high before his value drops more.

And it's not just that. He's not the type to steal a bunch of bases and he has very little power. Someone bought up Ozzie Smith. Ozzie didn't have any power either but he almost always was stealing between 30-50 bases. Castro has never had more than 25. Andrelton Simmons isn't known for his bat either but he hit 17 HRs and won a gold glove. If you combine all 4 of Castro's years his best stats in each slot would be 91 runs, 14 HRs, 78 RBI, 25 SB, .307 avg and .347 OBP. That's very similar to the season Daniel Murphy had for the mets as a middle infielder. I doubt many would consider Murphy immovable.

So, when people talk about Castro's untapped potential, I really wonder what they are expecting. As he gets older he's unlikely to steal more bases. In fact the opposite is the case. And he wasn't a big SB guy in the minors either. He could possibly add a few more HRs but 14 was his peak over 4 years so I think the upper range is high teens maybe low 20's. So, at best I think you're looking at a 20/20 type. And at this point, I think it's a stretch to consider he will ever be a .350+ type OBP player. Don't get me wrong, a 20/20 guy with say .330-340 OBP has some value but he's not a player that is going to carry your team. And to suggest you wouldn't trade him for a probable #1/2 starter like Miller projects(projected there before this season as well) to me seems a bit unrealistic.

That's why I've said if the cards were to package Miller and maybe a bit more I'd consider it. But the other pitchers that were being talked about were more 2-4 starters. And at that point I think the trade is a bit more murky. And really, if any team offered someone who projects as a 1/2 starter I think you consider it. But for a lessor pitcher I'm not sure.

 

[SilenceS]

And it's not just that. He's not the type to steal a bunch of bases and he has very little power. Someone bought up Ozzie Smith. Ozzie didn't have any power either but he almost always was stealing between 30-50 bases. Castro has never had more than 25. Andrelton Simmons isn't known for his bat either but he hit 17 HRs and won a gold glove. If you combine all 4 of Castro's years his best stats in each slot would be 91 runs, 14 HRs, 78 RBI, 25 SB, .307 avg and .347 OBP. That's very similar to the season Daniel Murphy had for the mets as a middle infielder. I doubt many would consider Murphy immovable.

So, when people talk about Castro's untapped potential, I really wonder what they are expecting. As he gets older he's unlikely to steal more bases. In fact the opposite is the case. And he wasn't a big SB guy in the minors either. He could possibly add a few more HRs but 14 was his peak over 4 years so I think the upper range is high teens maybe low 20's. So, at best I think you're looking at a 20/20 type. And at this point, I think it's a stretch to consider he will ever be a .350+ type OBP player. Don't get me wrong, a 20/20 guy with say .330-340 OBP has some value but he's not a player that is going to carry your team. And to suggest you wouldn't trade him for a probable #1/2 starter like Miller projects(projected there before this season as well) to me seems a bit unrealistic.

That's why I've said if the cards were to package Miller and maybe a bit more I'd consider it. But the other pitchers that were being talked about were more 2-4 starters. And at that point I think the trade is a bit more murky. And really, if any team offered someone who projects as a 1/2 starter I think you consider it. But for a lessor pitcher I'm not sure.

Besides Tulo, what shortstop has big time power? A 20/20 guy at short has more than a little value.

 

[beckdawg]

Besides Tulo, what shortstop has big time power? A 20/20 guy at short has more than a little value.

The problem with SS's is most of their value is tied to defense and OBP and that's two areas Castro has struggled in. And those would be his absolute peak. At this point, Castro is basically Yunel Escobar only not as good defensively. And you're right about there not being a ton of quality SS. However, if they feel Baez can play there long term, he would be easily a top tier SS assuming he pans out.

So, i'm not saying you just give Castro away. But if you can get a #1/2 starter for him I think it's worth the risk. I really don't see Castro ever being more than a 3 WAR guy which again has value but enough to stop you from acquiring a potential #1/2?

 

[chibears55]

That's why I've said if the cards were to package Miller and maybe a bit more I'd consider it. But the other pitchers that were being talked about were more 2-4 starters. And at that point I think the trade is a bit more murky. And really, if any team offered someone who projects as a 1/2 starter I think you consider it. But for a lessor pitcher I'm not sure.

why would the cardinals whom most consider the brightest and best organization in baseball package miller who you feel is a one or two starter and others for a SS (castro ) that you and some others feel has very little value ? makes you think that either baseball people see castro with a higher ceiling or the cardinals just dont feel miller is a no. 1 or 2 type starter or both...

The offers circulating have been very underwhelming. That's what I don't think most fans get. Its a what have you done for me lately fan base.

its exactly like you said, a knee jerk reaction to a kid having a down season and wanting to get rid of him ..

Ozzie didn't have any power either but he almost always was stealing between 30-50 bases. Castro has never had more than 25.

ozzie came up at the age of 23...
ozzie was a career .260 hitter and .337 OBP...
ozzie played at the time where SS was suppose to just play solid defense, which he was the best at and basically provide something on offense to stick in the line up, he gave them stolen bases/speed..
ozzie was basically what the cardinals of the 80's were, a speedy defensive team ..

ozzie first 4 years..

AVG. .258, .211, .230, and .222
OBP. .311 .260 ..313 and .294
FPct .970 .976 .974 and .976 95 total errors

first 4 years were with the Padres, guess what they did ? they gave up on him and traded him to the cardinal where he became an AS and HOF

starlin Castro

Avg. .300 .307 .283 .245
OBP .347 .341 .323 .284
FPct .950 .961 .964 .967 105 total errors

castro first 4 years with the cubs...

castro has much better AVG, OBP and is just 10 more errors total then ozzie in their first 4 years...
ozzie provided SB as castro provided some power
ozzie was 27 going into his 5th season, castro be 24 going into 5th season

who did the padres get for Ozzie ?
The two main players were Garry Templeton and Ozzie but there were others. The Padres also got the wonderfully named Sixto Lezcano and a player to be named later who turned out to be reliever Luis DeLeon. In addition to Smith, the Cardinals received Steve Mura and Al Olmsted.

gary templeton had a nice career but he was no Ozzie, i bet the padres wish they didnt give up on him so soon or at least got more in return...


this was a good comparison... shows you shouldnt give up too early on kids, especially if their young (23 ) and have shown to have a high ceiling
some of you are ready to dump starlin after 1 bad year, the padres at least waited out for 4 bad yrs to move a 27 YO who ended up with a HOF career

 

[beckdawg]

why would the cardinals whom most consider the brightest and best organization in baseball package miller who you feel is a one or two starter and others for a SS (castro ) that you and some others feel has very little value ? makes you think that either baseball people see castro with a higher ceiling or the cardinals just dont feel miller is a no. 1 or 2 type starter or both...

Or, the going price for a starting SS is a young good pitcher. See the trade the dbacks made for Bauer last year.

its exactly like you said, a knee jerk reaction to a kid having a down season and wanting to get rid of him ..

Why is it knee jerk? It's trading a position you are strong at for one you are quite weak at. Let's say Baez doesn't work out. You could possibly move Alcantara there too. And Alcantara's potential is easily as high if not higher than Castro.

As for the rest about Ozzie, the vast majority of Ozzie's value came from his speed and his defense. It's HIGHLY unlikely castro ever steals 30+ bases on a consistent basis. Ozzie's career 10% BB% and 5.5 % K%. Castro's is 5% BB% and 15% K%. That doesn't bode well for Castro's future success for the type of player he is. That's the reason the front office tried to change Castro. It's not like they were just screwing with him for fun. Even if you look at Ozzie's first 4 year's his walk and k rate are much better.

Also why are we comparing him to Ozzie Smith? We're talking about an 80's player for the most part which is an entirely different era. I've said it before and I'll say it again, Yunel Escobar is a much better comparison. Castro has slightly more speed and Escobar has better defense. But Escobar offensively is the type of player Castro is likely to be. If you average Escobar over 600 PA's a year you're talking about 10 HRs, 73 Runs, 55 RBIs 5 SB with .278 avg and .350 OBP. You could argue Castro may hit for a higher average but his lack of walks probably put his OBP lower or near there in best case scenario. Castro should steal more bases. I think 20-25 a year is a reasonable estimate. Castro might be more of a 15 HR guy if he puts on more muscle but at this point it's hard to say. If you take his 37 career over 600 PA's a year and hes at 8.5 a year. As for RBI's and Runs, that's a bit team dependent as well as dependent on location in the lineup. However over 600 PA's he's at 53 RBis and 64 runs.

Like I said, right now he's basically Yunel Escobar. Escobar isn't a bad player but he's also not someone who is untouchable. Now, Escobar didn't come up until he was 24 and Castro was only 23 this year. So, I'll give you the fact Castro could improve some. But to what end? He's not going to get faster and steal more bases. He's unlikely to add substantial power(eg not going to be a 20-25+ HR guy). Typically where players improve is in their approach at the plate. But when you start your career at a .300 and .307 average, it's difficult to really go up from there. Only 24 hitters in all of the majors hit .300 this year. And the team tried to change his approach to make him a better OBP player and failed badly. So other than his defense, where's he improve? I think Castro can consistently be a 3-4 WAR player but I really don't see any way he gets better than that. And if you can get a 3-4 WAR pitcher it helps them much more because they have players to fill his gap where as they don't have a ton of quality pitching.

 

[CSF77]

You can not point to 1 player (the rare instance) and say that this will happen again. Ozzy was valued for his D and his showmanship. I'd rather have Jeter out there for his bat 100% of the time.

The key point about Castro is in his BB%. SB and all that matters less. His D is avg. He has little power which projects fine at SS. If I was building a competitive team he is my 7 hitter. I would not want a lower OBA hitting before my RBI bats. His hitting ability can net him some RBI's lower in the order and that works fine.

The problem here is the Cubs lack talent and they tryed to force Castro to become a OBA type when he is not one.

The point made about trading a 1-2 pitcher (not saying he is but he is better than what they have currently) whom is also 23 YO with some upside ahead of him also you make that trade 100% of the time.

The reason why anyone would back away is because of the over all lack in talent with the starting 9. Add some more talent then Castro's lacking magnify as he is being surrounded by better talent and his bat falls down to #7 naturally based off of his production.


I'd put this as borderline fanboy servicing towards Castro. He is not the best player on any competitive team but his value means something over a Barney hitter like the Cards have.

If there is competition going on and teams are willing to give up SP that is better than you have always make that deal.