beckdawg
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3 years and 78 million is far to much. They overpaid AAV for the realistic length of the contract. Not a huge fan of the way this deal is broken out. I don't like the idea of paying him 20 million to go somewhere else. I guess the Cubs figure they will have more money available that year. I was hoping the actual AAV he would earn would have been less than the AAV of the contract so he would be incentivized to stay.
This deal incentivizes him to opt out. I think they made a mistake.
I mean you weren't going to get him to do a deal where it was backloaded because that then makes the opt out clause pointless. And I can understand the initial reaction of $20 mil to play else where but you have to remember that also helps the cubs. The next three years he's only costing them $19.3 mil/season. Sure if he opts out you get nothing and pay him $20 mil that 4th year but that's roughly $6 mil/season you can use on other things these next three. And it's pretty clear the cubs aren't as robust with money as you would like. At least not yet. That 4th year I believe is when they will be able to negotiate their TV contracts and should be flush with cash. I seriously doubt you were going to get Fowler for $15 mil this season considering Colby Rasmus is making $15 mil on the QO. He's probably in the $19-20 mil range. Is the roughly 2-3 fWAR difference between Heyward and Fowler worth $6 mil/season over the next 3 years? Think you'd be hard pressed to say Fowler is more valuable.
That being said, there is the point of "what now" after the 3 years. If Heyward up and leaves, the draft pick they gave up is returned. You do still have the hole he leaves. There's two ways to view that. One you're missing a CF or two you're missing a RF. We'll see what happens with Soler. The cubs also have Eloy Jimenez who should be close to ready by then in RF. In CF Almora is looming and EJ Martinez is also around. So, it's not like the cubs moved their entire organizational plans to fit Heyward in. They essentially just traded Castro and it might be a stretch to say that was because of Heyward.
The way I look at it is Heyward is kind of like Lackey in that he's a short term patch to a organizational weakness they presently have. It's just that in Heyward's case he also happens to be pretty great and you happen to be getting what should be his best years. Both players buy time for hopefully younger players to become ready. And who knows what will happen down the line. Maybe Heyward unexpectedly decides to stay and if he does he's pretty cheap.