Heyward to Cubs!

[CSF77]

Sophomore slump has more to do with league adjustments. I believe it plays up more for mid year rookie call ups as the book has not been written on them yet. Year 2 is when there is all of this data out there on how to approach a hitter. Thus the coined sophmore slump.

What it is in reality is just the adjustment process and better scouting. What bust's a player is not their talent it is their ability to readjust to what the book says on them. Could be something simple like Rizzo did with the shift. Bunt to 3B as it was open.

Baez and Rizzo readjusted their swings and shortened their 2 strike swings. So it is a game of adjustments. Guys that can not adapt end out of the league.

 

[brett05]

Links?

Can't link to what does not exist

 

[brett05]

Sophomore Slump is a term for the music business, not baseball.

Huh?

 

[Parade_Rain]

Huh?

New group breaks in with huge first album. Second album is rushed, sucks, and doesn't sell nearly as well as the first. Sophomore slump.

 

[brett05]

New group breaks in with huge first album. Second album is rushed, sucks, and doesn't sell nearly as well as the first. Sophomore slump.

Never heard the term outside of baseball really. Thanks!

 

[chibears55]

New group breaks in with huge first album. Second album is rushed, sucks, and doesn't sell nearly as well as the first. Sophomore slump.

I thought those were one hit wonders

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I527 using Tapatalk

 

[Parade_Rain]

I thought those were one hit wonders

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I527 using Tapatalk

Nope. Those are songs, not album sales.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Heyward presser about to start. It's live on WSCR I would assume ESPN 1000 as well.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Heyward presser about to start. It's live on WSCR I would assume ESPN 1000 as well.

How did it go? Did he say he wouldn't play CF?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

He said he would play wherever they needed him but that had to be prompted as no beat writer asked. I swear the media in Chicago is getting worse, especially when a new player or coach is introduced.

 

[Diehardfan]

How did it go? Did he say he wouldn't play CF?

Just watching Sportsnet Central and Kelly Crull says Heyward said it depends on what Maddon wants to do but he feels perfectly comfortable playing center or right.

 

[CSF77]

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/...asons-for-signing-and-willingness-to-play-cf/

He said he would be excited to play CF if that is where they want him.

Some chatter about it and from what history tells us centerfielders tend to lose range at the age of 30 so I don't see it as a long-term thing but yes you probably could see him playing CF until his range drops

 

[beckdawg]

Never heard the term outside of baseball really. Thanks!

The concept is used a lot in entertainment. Movies are likewise. That's why the 2nd movie in most movie franchises sucks. Also applies in business in general as you'll often find people who start successful companies, sell them, and then make something new that totally fails because they aren't able to identify what made the first one work. There was a special on Pixar I watched that was pretty fascinating. They basically discussed this and they are one of the few companies who've really never had a bad movie least through the filming of the special I watched. I don't follow them that closely since then. They went on to talk about how in the first movie which I believe was toy story, they literally didn't have time to think about what they were doing. During the second, they had a lot of people from I believe disney telling them how to change things and it got to a point where it just wasn't a good movie and they threw out a lot of it and started from scratch more or less. Plus, you then have expectations, and you think you actually know what you're doing so you get a bit arrogant...etc.

Obviously that's well outside the talk for baseball but I think some of the stuff applies. If you come out and smash as a rookie, the temptation is that you don't have to work as hard and then scouting catches up to you.

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/...asons-for-signing-and-willingness-to-play-cf/

He said he would be excited to play CF if that is where they want him.

Some chatter about it and from what history tells us centerfielders tend to lose range at the age of 30 so I don't see it as a long-term thing but yes you probably could see him playing CF until his range drops

Think I said this before but if he opts out at 29 and you've used him in CF for 3 years not sure you really care if his range drops.

 

[beckdawg]

Didn't see anyone comment on this yet but the terms of Heyward's deal are pretty interesting

2016 - $15 mil
2017 - $21.5 mil
2018 - $21.5 mil
2019 - $20 mil
2020 - $21 mil
2021 - $21 mil
2022 - $22 mil
2023 - $22 mil

With a $20 mil deferred signing bonus. If Heyward voids contract after 2018 or 2019 the signing bonus no longer deferred. That makes it essentially a choice of a 3 year $78 mil deal, a 4 year $98 mil deal or the whole thing. Makes him a $26 mil/season for the 3 year deal, $24.5 mil/season on the 4 year. On the plus side, if he Opts out the $20 mil is the following season. In other words it breaks down as $15/$21.5/$21.5/$20 if he opts out in 3 years or $15/$21.5/$21.5/$20/$20 if he outs out in 4 years. If he opts out after 3 he's leaving 5 years $106 mil on the table. If he opts out after 4 he's leaving 4 years, $86 mil on the table.

The structure of it all does lessen the opt out in my opinion. $26 mil/season means you're expecting around 3.25 WAR per season and given he's been over 5 the past several seems like a fairly safe bet. If for whatever reason he doesn't opt out after 3/4 years that back side of the contract looks very good. You're talking 4 years $86 mil essentially for a 30 year old player. Although, I honestly can't really see a reason not to opt out if he's healthy and plays well. But, the cubs push the money back in such a way that hopefully they will have better tv revenue by then.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Didn't see anyone comment on this yet but the terms of Heyward's deal are pretty interesting

2016 - $15 mil
2017 - $21.5 mil
2018 - $21.5 mil
2019 - $20 mil
2020 - $21 mil
2021 - $21 mil
2022 - $22 mil
2023 - $22 mil

With a $20 mil deferred signing bonus. If Heyward voids contract after 2018 or 2019 the signing bonus no longer deferred. That makes it essentially a choice of a 3 year $78 mil deal, a 4 year $98 mil deal or the whole thing. Makes him a $26 mil/season for the 3 year deal, $24.5 mil/season on the 4 year. On the plus side, if he Opts out the $20 mil is the following season. In other words it breaks down as $15/$21.5/$21.5/$20 if he opts out in 3 years or $15/$21.5/$21.5/$20/$20 if he outs out in 4 years. If he opts out after 3 he's leaving 5 years $106 mil on the table. If he opts out after 4 he's leaving 4 years, $86 mil on the table.

The structure of it all does lessen the opt out in my opinion. $26 mil/season means you're expecting around 3.25 WAR per season and given he's been over 5 the past several seems like a fairly safe bet. If for whatever reason he doesn't opt out after 3/4 years that back side of the contract looks very good. You're talking 4 years $86 mil essentially for a 30 year old player. Although, I honestly can't really see a reason not to opt out if he's healthy and plays well. But, the cubs push the money back in such a way that hopefully they will have better tv revenue by then.

It's an incredibly creative deal.

 

[brett05]

Didn't see anyone comment on this yet but the terms of Heyward's deal are pretty interesting

2016 - $15 mil
2017 - $21.5 mil
2018 - $21.5 mil
2019 - $20 mil
2020 - $21 mil
2021 - $21 mil
2022 - $22 mil
2023 - $22 mil

With a $20 mil deferred signing bonus. If Heyward voids contract after 2018 or 2019 the signing bonus no longer deferred. That makes it essentially a choice of a 3 year $78 mil deal, a 4 year $98 mil deal or the whole thing. Makes him a $26 mil/season for the 3 year deal, $24.5 mil/season on the 4 year. On the plus side, if he Opts out the $20 mil is the following season. In other words it breaks down as $15/$21.5/$21.5/$20 if he opts out in 3 years or $15/$21.5/$21.5/$20/$20 if he outs out in 4 years. If he opts out after 3 he's leaving 5 years $106 mil on the table. If he opts out after 4 he's leaving 4 years, $86 mil on the table.

The structure of it all does lessen the opt out in my opinion. $26 mil/season means you're expecting around 3.25 WAR per season and given he's been over 5 the past several seems like a fairly safe bet. If for whatever reason he doesn't opt out after 3/4 years that back side of the contract looks very good. You're talking 4 years $86 mil essentially for a 30 year old player. Although, I honestly can't really see a reason not to opt out if he's healthy and plays well. But, the cubs push the money back in such a way that hopefully they will have better tv revenue by then.

It's very creative. It's also the most money with the best options for Heyward. The Cards and Nats were offering less money with less opt out from what has been talked about on the radio. That seems right. So Heyward gives up two years of security for more per year money and two chances to hit the jackpot again with free agency.

Theo was on yesterday on ESPN 1000 and said that this is probably what will have to happen (the high dollars and opt out clauses) to get the top young guys to a team.

 

[beckdawg]

It's very creative. It's also the most money with the best options for Heyward. The Cards and Nats were offering less money with less opt out from what has been talked about on the radio. That seems right. So Heyward gives up two years of security for more per year money and two chances to hit the jackpot again with free agency.

Theo was on yesterday on ESPN 1000 and said that this is probably what will have to happen (the high dollars and opt out clauses) to get the top young guys to a team.

I'd agree it does benefit Heyward but I also think that it's win/win. I mean if we assume he opts out after 3 years and that he plays 3 years of CF for $78 mil, I doubt you're getting Fowler to sign that short of a deal. Only real downside to the cubs is if he falls off a cliff and you're stuck with the 8 years. However, he's priced in such a way that it's hard to see that happening. The years you're most confident in him being good are the next three where he makes 42% of the total value of the deal. To see the remaining 58% of that money he'd have to play poorly enough to make opting out not the right option.

The only real way this seems to go south for the cubs is if he gets injured in year 1 or 2 and then just isn't as effective over the life of the deal. But, I'm struggling to see how $22 mil towards the end of that deal is really that bad. Even if you talk about Crawford who's sort of the worst case scenario here, he's been worth 2.8 and 2.6 fWAR in 2013 and 2014. Those years are probably worth close to $22 mil. I guess the real fear is missing most of the season as Crawford did in 11/12 and this year but you can't really predict injuries and any player you sign can have them.

 

[czman]

3 years and 78 million is far to much. They overpaid AAV for the realistic length of the contract. Not a huge fan of the way this deal is broken out. I don't like the idea of paying him 20 million to go somewhere else. I guess the Cubs figure they will have more money available that year. I was hoping the actual AAV he would earn would have been less than the AAV of the contract so he would be incentivized to stay.

This deal incentivizes him to opt out. I think they made a mistake.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

3 years and 78 million is far to much. They overpaid AAV for the realistic length of the contract. Not a huge fan of the way this deal is broken out. I don't like the idea of paying him 20 million to go somewhere else. I guess the Cubs figure they will have more money available that year. I was hoping the actual AAV he would earn would have been less than the AAV of the contract so he would be incentivized to stay.

This deal incentivizes him to opt out. I think they made a mistake.

If you call 1 WAR worth $7 million you need Heyward to compile 11.1 WAR over the 3 years to justify that $78 million and the reality is that this season 1 WAR is worth closer to $8 million or above. He'll could conceivably earn that $78 million before the end of his 2nd year. Now of course the risk factor plays a part, as the Cubs are assuming all of it, but even if he never opts out is 26.2 WAR over 8 years so difficult to imagine? To me the deal makes logical sense on virtually every level.