Heyward to Cubs!

[DanTown]

If money was not a issue, they should resign Fowler. I don't see that as a option as it would be swapping Fowler for Soler in essence. D would be a push. Production. Not sure. Fowler was the better last year. I doubt that will carry over to this year.

So I feel they should hold the deck. Let the 4 guys compete for the 2 rotation spots.

i have a hard time believing they will be better by losing Soler.

Baez is another story as he is not a starter. They could go for a depth approach. Ross, LaStella, guy they got from NY, Coghlan then get another depth piece from the Baez trade.

Still I see it as they could let them battle it out and who knows both Hendricks and Hammel lose. At that point I question Hendricks taking a BP spot over Ramirez

You can buy better production that what Fowler is going to do. He won't bat top 5 in this lineup and he's a poor defender. I don't get how you're better benching Soler for Fowler while paying an extra 14 million for Fowler AND "giving" up the recoup pick you're going to get from him.

 

[DanTown]

Cubs don't really need to make a move. If your top ten hitters are Zobrist, Heyward, Soler, Bryant, Schwarber, Montero, Rizzo, Russell, Baez, Coghlan then you don't need to make a trade. Sure a trade might open up but right now you have to sell a team (i.e the Padres, Indians, Rays, etc) on giving up a guy they think is going to help them win 90 games (as most teams feel this is a likelyhood).

the Cubs should do is wait and see who's a seller and see if they can give up a couple of replacement level prospects with decent value (Caliendo, Villanueva, Vogelbach, Johnson, McKinney, Almora) and maybe get an arm/bat if they neeTyd it for the 2016 season. Right now, they have a ton of flexibility and don't need to do a trade until they get the power back. Right now, the SP market is so crazy that you don't need to do anything, just see what breaks in February/March for you.

Tyson Ross' price goes way down if the Padres are 40-50 in July and then the Cubs still get almost everything they'd need/want from Ross.

 

[Boobaby1]

Cubs don't really need to make a move. If your top ten hitters are Zobrist, Heyward, Soler, Bryant, Schwarber, Montero, Rizzo, Russell, Baez, Coghlan then you don't need to make a trade. Sure a trade might open up but right now you have to sell a team (i.e the Padres, Indians, Rays, etc) on giving up a guy they think is going to help them win 90 games (as most teams feel this is a likelyhood).

the Cubs should do is wait and see who's a seller and see if they can give up a couple of replacement level prospects with decent value (Caliendo, Villanueva, Vogelbach, Johnson, McKinney, Almora) and maybe get an arm/bat if they neeTyd it for the 2016 season. Right now, they have a ton of flexibility and don't need to do a trade until they get the power back. Right now, the SP market is so crazy that you don't need to do anything, just see what breaks in February/March for you.

Tyson Ross' price goes way down if the Padres are 40-50 in July and then the Cubs still get almost everything they'd need/want from Ross.

To add to that, let the market correct itself for RH power hitters. Once Cespedes, Upton and others are off the table, then a team should be more willing to trade for a cost controlled bat like Soler, thus making a cost for the Cubs to acquire a pitcher (see Miller) not so lopsided.

 

[Diehardfan]

The way everyone is proposing one trade after another, reeks of hoping Theo goes "all in" on 2016. Hopefully, he much smarter than that. Byrant, Soler, Schwarber, Baez and Russell all have less than one year in the league....LESS than ONE year. It makes absolutely no sense to deal off high upside players before you know exactly what you have. That's the kind of idiocy that this franchise has dabbled with in the past and it's gotten them a whole lotta nothing for a whole lotta years.

There are a lot of pieces in place already....hold off till the trade deadline and see where you stand. Make your decision when you have a bigger sample size of what you have and what you need.

 

[Boobaby1]

The way everyone is proposing one trade after another, reeks of hoping Theo goes "all in" on 2016. Hopefully, he much smarter than that. Byrant, Soler, Schwarber, Baez and Russell all have less than one year in the league....LESS than ONE year. It makes absolutely no sense to deal off high upside players before you know exactly what you have. That's the kind of idiocy that this franchise has dabbled with in the past and it's gotten them a whole lotta nothing for a whole lotta years.

There are a lot of pieces in place already....hold off till the trade deadline and see where you stand. Make your decision when you have a bigger sample size of what you have and what you need.

I am on the "sell high" bandwagon.

I don't want to wait to see what shakes out, because when players start to underperform, or have health issues, then you don't get maximum value for them in return.

I keep thinking of how long the Cubs waited for Patterson or Pie to become something, and they never did. Bobby Hill was a top prospect at one time, and also all of the other picks that busted.

I would much rather roll the dice when you have an abundance of young talent even at the parent level. It isn't as if there isn't more coming on the way. Hell, the Cardinals shipped off Miller for Heyward and Walden, and now have neither a pitcher nor a right fielder.

No one has ever said that all trades will work out, and you would like it to work out for both parties, but in order for the Cubs to get a young pitcher, they are going to have to trade a young bat because the prospects are still a couple of years out, and the FO knows this. That is why they have went on short term deals for both Hammel and Lackey.

They are way ahead of us as far as what they want to do and how they want this to all play out.

 

[beckdawg]

So it occurred to me while reading something else(on the cards) that the cubs had signed the top 2 guys on fangraph's top 5 bargain list. Incidentally, the wisdom of the crowd there was pretty strong. They had Zobrist at 3 years $14 mil AAV instead of 4 but not bad. And they were bang on with Heyward.

 

[beckdawg]

I'd honestly try to pry Teheran away from atlanta for less than Baez and Soler. They owe Bourn around $9 mil next season if you split the $10 mil Cleveland gave them evenly between him and Swisher. Atlanta is swimming in young minor league pitching right now and would almost assuredly want some hitters. Something like Wood + Jiminez + McKinney for Bourn + Teheran strikes me as a reasonable offer. Wood should make around $6 mil after arbitration, he's only 29 and would be an interesting rehab project for a team who's really not trying to win. He offsets some of the money Bourn is making. Jiminez draws a lot of Soler comps though he's only likely in A to start the season. Given Atlanta wanted Soler, he seems like something they'd be interested in. McKinney isn't ideal but he's super young, close to the majors and can hit.

I mean I get it, Bourn looks pretty ugly but we're talking about a bench role here. He hit .231/.324/.275 vs lefties and .240/.306/.284 vs righties. He also wasn't too bad defensively last season in CF with a UZR of -2.5 and if you offset the Wood deal with him you're talking around $3 mil for him which isn't much when you're talking about bench player. If he's what it takes not to give away a Soler/Baez I think it's well worth it. Wood was good out of the pen last season but if he gets $6 mil in arbitration that's pretty damn pricey for a bullpen pitcher and they already have Warren and Cahill for long relief plus potentially Edwards. Jimenez is pretty far away and plays a position they currently have Soler at and potentially Heyward as well. McKinney would be trying to fight into a line up where he can't play CF and the cubs have at least 3 corner OF in Heyward/Soler/Schwarber.

If you want to argue that the cubs side of the trade is a bit light, maybe that's fair. But the cubs have other bats. You could even talk about adding Candelario and it really doesn't phase them long term. If you did add him, I feel like you'd have a hard time beating that sort of haul given Teheran is coming off a 4.04 ERA season with a 4.40 FIP. Atlanta could also take the ~$6.5 mil they save on the trade and invest it else where likely IFA as I don't believe they are under the penalty and next season Boston, NYY, Tampa, LAA, AZ, LAD, SF, and the cubs are all under penalty and there is a player(Kevin Maiten) some are comparing to Miguel Cabrera in that pool who coincidentally is rumored to have a handshake agreement with Atlanta.

Overall, if Atlanta is truly open to trading Teheran that deal seems like a pretty fair offer. Obviously it's not as ideal as the Miller trade but it frees money for them, gets them at least one bat near the majors(McKinney) and maybe 2 if it took Candelario, replaces the pitcher they are losing in Teheran and gives them potential impact talent in Jiminez.

 

[brett05]

MLB Network last night said that Heyward had 200 mil offers but for more years. I think the Cubs offer may have been the highest AAV. Also we don't know where the other teams were in the opt out clause. I think Heyward might have taken the most lucrative deal offered when you actually consider what he is going to get paid per year and when he is going to opt out.

Heyward got basically what I said he'd get to be a Cub. Actually he got more with the two opt out clauses.

 

[brett05]

Cubs won games at 114 game pace the last two+ months. This idea that the team is going to fall back just seems to be based on personal opinion of the team with zero thought given to projection. I don't see them winning 114 games but I can't see how they all of the sudden just fall back. Even if their 1 run game luck regresses a bit (they were 34-21 in one run games; 13-5 in extras), I assume that a lot of things will even out (i.e the Cubs will probably be close to 42-23 in games started by Lester/Arrieta but it won't be 17-15 for Lester and 25-8 for Jake).

It's called the Sophomore Slump.

 

[brett05]

I'd honestly try to pry Teheran away from atlanta for less than Baez and Soler. They owe Bourn around $9 mil next season if you split the $10 mil Cleveland gave them evenly between him and Swisher. Atlanta is swimming in young minor league pitching right now and would almost assuredly want some hitters. Something like Wood + Jiminez + McKinney for Bourn + Teheran strikes me as a reasonable offer. Wood should make around $6 mil after arbitration, he's only 29 and would be an interesting rehab project for a team who's really not trying to win. He offsets some of the money Bourn is making. Jiminez draws a lot of Soler comps though he's only likely in A to start the season. Given Atlanta wanted Soler, he seems like something they'd be interested in. McKinney isn't ideal but he's super young, close to the majors and can hit.

I mean I get it, Bourn looks pretty ugly but we're talking about a bench role here. He hit .231/.324/.275 vs lefties and .240/.306/.284 vs righties. He also wasn't too bad defensively last season in CF with a UZR of -2.5 and if you offset the Wood deal with him you're talking around $3 mil for him which isn't much when you're talking about bench player. If he's what it takes not to give away a Soler/Baez I think it's well worth it. Wood was good out of the pen last season but if he gets $6 mil in arbitration that's pretty damn pricey for a bullpen pitcher and they already have Warren and Cahill for long relief plus potentially Edwards. Jimenez is pretty far away and plays a position they currently have Soler at and potentially Heyward as well. McKinney would be trying to fight into a line up where he can't play CF and the cubs have at least 3 corner OF in Heyward/Soler/Schwarber.

If you want to argue that the cubs side of the trade is a bit light, maybe that's fair. But the cubs have other bats. You could even talk about adding Candelario and it really doesn't phase them long term. If you did add him, I feel like you'd have a hard time beating that sort of haul given Teheran is coming off a 4.04 ERA season with a 4.40 FIP. Atlanta could also take the ~$6.5 mil they save on the trade and invest it else where likely IFA as I don't believe they are under the penalty and next season Boston, NYY, Tampa, LAA, AZ, LAD, SF, and the cubs are all under penalty and there is a player(Kevin Maiten) some are comparing to Miguel Cabrera in that pool who coincidentally is rumored to have a handshake agreement with Atlanta.

Overall, if Atlanta is truly open to trading Teheran that deal seems like a pretty fair offer. Obviously it's not as ideal as the Miller trade but it frees money for them, gets them at least one bat near the majors(McKinney) and maybe 2 if it took Candelario, replaces the pitcher they are losing in Teheran and gives them potential impact talent in Jiminez.

I don't think anyone sees Mckinney as an everyday MLB starter.

 

[CSF77]

I don't think anyone sees Mckinney as an everyday MLB starter.

Think his arm is noodle. His bat will play well but lacks the power impact you want from a MI.

I see him as another Coghlan but with the potential of hitting for .300.

A team like the Royals would value him the most as he fits the model they built the most.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Think his arm is noodle. His bat will play well but lacks the power impact you want from a MI.

I see him as another Coghlan but with the potential of hitting for .300.

A team like the Royals would value him the most as he fits the model they built the most.

I think that's essentially it. There are a lot of scouts that love him out there, especially his bat, and he has more trade value than you would think and unless he takes a step back this year it's likely to grow. I like the KC reference as that type of team is where he would fit and being a copy cat league there will be other teams trying that approach. The Cubs are going to let him see some more time in CF this year after he showed a better year with the glove last year. If he can show flexibility there he's got even more value. I'm not sure he's a future Cub but he has a good bat and should be a good trade chip. All that said to say that no one sees him as an everyday player is incorrect.

 

[brett05]

I think that's essentially it. There are a lot of scouts that love him out there, especially his bat, and he has more trade value than you would think and unless he takes a step back this year it's likely to grow. I like the KC reference as that type of team is where he would fit and being a copy cat league there will be other teams trying that approach. The Cubs are going to let him see some more time in CF this year after he showed a better year with the glove last year. If he can show flexibility there he's got even more value. I'm not sure he's a future Cub but he has a good bat and should be a good trade chip. All that said to say that no one sees him as an everyday player is incorrect.

I disagree. But time will tell.

 

[DanTown]

It's called the Sophomore Slump.

Oh, I forgot that in running predictions that all second year players should have their numbers downgraded 10%. God, what an idiot I am.

Please show me the statistical evidence that says second year slumps are due to causation and not simply correlation in a few subjects.

 

[DanTown]

I disagree. But time will tell.

MLB.com rates him as the 9th best OF prospect. While you may disagree with the idea that he's not an everyday player, the majority of baseball would disagree with you and thus his value is that of a potential everyday OF. And I'm not saying he will be an everyday starting OF but that the prevailing census is that he will be. Especially considering the fact he's only going to be 22 next year.

 

[DanTown]

Things I hate about Teheran

1. He feasted on bad teams (8-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 16 starts against below .500 teams) but was awful against good ones (5.82 ERA in 17 starts against +.500 teams). Too continue, he made 11 of his 33 starts against the Phillies/Mets/Marlins and they account for 9 of his 17 starts of 2 ER or fewer.

2. I don't know what kind of pitcher he wants to be. Doesn't induce enough GB to be a GB pitcher, doesn't strike enough guys out to be a power pitcher, doesn't induce enough weak contact to be a contact guy, and doesn't posses enough control to be a control guy.

3. When guys start to get worse (FIP went from 3.69 to 3.49 to 4.40), it concerns me that they simply don't have enough stuff to get guys out. He's basically a three pitch guy (4 seam, 2 seam, and slider) and none of them are elite pitches.

 

[brett05]

Oh, I forgot that in running predictions that all second year players should have their numbers downgraded 10%. God, what an idiot I am.

Please show me the statistical evidence that says second year slumps are due to causation and not simply correlation in a few subjects.

I don't think anyone's taken the time to research it out. Here is what I found which leads to 1/5 slumping. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/436001-sophomore-slump-truth-or-cliche

Here's another:

http://www.fangraphs.com/plus/the-sophomore-slump/

And Another with 64% of ROY declining in year 2.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-sophomore-slump/

The cliche is there and it's for a reason.

 

[brett05]

MLB.com rates him as the 9th best OF prospect. While you may disagree with the idea that he's not an everyday player, the majority of baseball would disagree with you and thus his value is that of a potential everyday OF. And I'm not saying he will be an everyday starting OF but that the prevailing census is that he will be. Especially considering the fact he's only going to be 22 next year.

That does not show that he will or won't be an everyday player. All it shows is he is the #9 OF prospect. That is all.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I don't think anyone's taken the time to research it out. Here is what I found which leads to 1/5 slumping. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/436001-sophomore-slump-truth-or-cliche

Here's another:

http://www.fangraphs.com/plus/the-sophomore-slump/

And Another with 64% of ROY declining in year 2.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-sophomore-slump/

The cliche is there and it's for a reason.

There is obvious merit to the sophomore slump but an even better way to look at it is that development and progression in baseball is not linear. A better way to grade the Cubs 2015 rookies in their second season will to see where their fWAR is at the end of 2016. I fully expect attrition from at least one but I don't expect it to be significant. The reason is where they were drafted. All were top 15 picks in the 1st round and progression on those guys is much more likely to be consistent, provided they get to MLB in the first place. Your one source mentions Posey and looks ahead to 2011 being that it was written in 2010. Because of his devastating injury that year you have to replace 2011 with 2012 and his stats got much, much better not worse. All that said to deny that a sophomore slump is possible for any rookie is not looking at history.

 

[DanTown]

That does not show that he will or won't be an everyday player. All it shows is he is the #9 OF prospect. That is all.

It shows his perceived value across baseball, not the actuality of what he will become. When people say the Diamondbacks gave up too much in the Shelby Miller trade, the point was that the value of those players was significantly higher than the value of the player they received back. Whether or not Miller becomes an ace/Swanson and others never make the majors doesn't change what the value of the players at the time of the trade is. A classic example of this was the Will Myers/James Shields trade. While Shields was a great starter and Wade Davis became the best closer in baseball, the value at the time was quite high.

While I'm not arguing what an individual person thinks of an individual player's value, the league would generally say McKinney is quite likely to be an everyday OF.